A Capital Start

Ambiance:

for New Year’s, Irving Berlin’s “Let’s Start the New Year Right,” as performed by Emma Wallace (video, pops up in new window)

for DC/ being aggro, Fugazi’s “Waiting Room“ (video, pops up in new window)

---

The Red Storm open conference play on New Year’s Eve against the Georgetown Hoyas, who are ranked #13 in the country in both major polls. With another win, I daresay we might have a rivalry going again. The Hoya fans are terribly, terribly eager to avenge the losses from last March, where a swooning Hoya squad needed to beat the lowly Johnnies to have a chance at the NCAAs.

In response, the Hoyas got manhandled, beasted, prison-wifed into submission on March 3rd AND March 10th, with the March 10th game being in the Big East tournament. The first game saw Georgetown playing an ineffective last 10 minutes and losing in overtime. I mean, losing a 15-point second half lead to a team with notoriously bad scoring is an eyebrow-raiser. But apparently, it wasn’t a bad day; in front of few supporters and a Madison Square Garden that plays like a neutral court during tournament play, St. John’s won, needing no overtime to settle things.

Those performances likely influenced both teams for the better. An emboldened St. John’s – now with a couple more scorers, an aggressive DJ Kennedy, and a tough early schedule – have played pretty well on defense and have had fewer droughts on offense, even managing to hang with Duke on the road. The hot-shooting moments, though, may have led the Red Storm astray against Cornell, who burned them with efficient shooting. Was that a flaw in the defense or a harbinger of defensive doom? Conference play will be the definitive answer. The team is 10-2, and expects Justin Burrell back as early as this game, and Anthony Mason Jr. back early in January.

Meanwhile, Georgetown has come out smoking this year, with wins over Temple, Butler, and most surprisingly, the go-go Washington Huskies. Their lone loss – at home – was against Old Dominion. A bad sign? Or a tough, quirky loss to a team that will make some noise in March? The Hoyas have been playing excellent consistent defense against the sloth-like Temple Owls and the speedy Huskies, against the precise Butler Bulldogs and against weak opponents. Against the tougher opponents though, they have not shot as well and use free throw attempts to make up for the difference, along with sterling defense.

Greg Monroe has been a force on both ends. The improvement in his defensive rebounding to an elite level, along with Julian Vaughn’s work, has helped shore up a weakness in last year’s Hoyas, allowing second chances. Note that Rob Thomas scored 16 in one of the wins last year; he feasts on offensive boards and junk points. Georgetown sometimes has issues holding on to the ball; though they force some turnovers as well. They’re happy to run, doing it more crisply than last year; but when I’ve seen them, there is still a lot of individual/ athletic play as opposed to crisp passing.  But they have a high percentage of assisted baskets, so I must be missing something.

Meanwhile, St. John’s has been solid on both sides of the ball, despite leaving some exploitable gaps in their defense. They have been a bit reliant on outside shooting, and haven’t been drawing fouls… and when they do, the free throw shooting has been terrible. They need to shoot well to win, and that can be a weakness going into Big East play, since they don’t have an elite offense like Notre Dame. The Red Storm rebounds solidly on the defensive end, and despite not causing turnovers, can be pesky on defense.

Two improved teams. A bitter taste in the mouths of the Hoyas. A bold confidence from the Johnnies. It’s gonna be a good one.

Game Information

Tip Off: 8:00 PM, Thursday, December 31
Location: Verizon Center
TV: ESPN 2
Radio: Bloomberg 1130

---

Team Reviews

Georgetown (9-1)

4 G Chris Wright JR 6’1 208: 13.9 ppg* 3.5 apg* 3.3 rpg* 1.7 spg* 50% FG

15 G Austin Freeman JR 6’4 227: 13.1 ppg* 4 rpg* 37.1% 3PT

21 G Jason Clark SO 6’2 170: 11.1 ppg* 4.4 rpg* 2.6 apg* 2.1 spg* 40.8% 3PT

22 F Julian Vaughn JR 6’9 247: 8.6 ppg* 5.7 rpg* 2 bpg

10 C Greg Monroe SO 6’11 247: 15.3 ppg* 10.5 rpg* 3 apg* 1.7 bpg* 60.7% FT

Bench

1 F Hollis Thompson FR 6’7 205: 21.3 mpg* 4.6 ppg* .7 bpg* 43.8% 3PT* 2.6 fouls/g

30 C Henry Sims SO 6‘10 230: 10.6 mpg* 3.1 ppg* .8 bpg* 2.4 rpg* 62.5% FG* 1.7 fouls/g

Usually, when writing about the bench, this column includes 2-3 of the players who spend the most time on the court, or a player whose shot-taking proclivities and ability make them someone to watch. But Georgetown actually plays 2 guys off the bench for extended minutes.  And those two guys seem to foul a lot.  Except for Julian Vaughn, expect to see a lot of the starters.

Greg Monroe has been a better focal point of the team this year.  He passes well, is rebounding at the level that will get him an excellent NBA draft slot (dominating both the offensive and defensive glass), and is actively taking shots.  He could stand to take more closer to the rim, but still.  His defensive awareness and recovery quickness is impressive, perhaps better than last year.  Monroe is also the lowest-turnover starter the team has. Henry Sims is the backup, blocking shots and fouling people.

At guard, both Chris Wright and Jason Clark can bring the ball up court.  Wright is the point guard, I suppose, and he shoots very well inside the arc. He dropped 34 points on a tough Harvard team last Wednesday (while St. John’s was beating up on Bryant). Jason Clark takes more of his shots outside the the arc than inside the arc. He’s pretty good at shooting, and needs to be shadowed on the perimeter.

Austin Freeman seems to be the longest-tenured Hoya, with the transfers out of the program. He’s a good scorer, but passes with less frequency than his teammates. There’s a crack to be made about how much he passes food at the team dinner, but this column will leave that alone. Julian Vaughn provides heft and rebounding up front. He hasn’t been hitting his free throws.  Freshman Hollis Thompson has some touch on his shot, and provides length on defense.

St. John’s (10-2)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 5.8 ppg* 2.7 rpg* 2.3 apg* 1.1 spg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 9 ppg* 3.1 rpg* 1.4 apg* 1.2 spg* 38.3% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 16.7 ppg* 6.3 rpg* 3.4 apg* 37% 3PT

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 : 4.9 ppg* 3 rpg* 51.7% FG

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 7.5 ppg* 6.6 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6’2 187: 22.8 mpg* 11.7 ppg* 41.9% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6’7 232: 21.9 mpg* 7.9 ppg* 6 rpg* 1.3 spg* 1.2 bpg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 11.4 mpg* 2.4 ppg* 2.6 rpg* 1.7 bpg* 68.4% FG

Meanwhile, St. John’s has been solid on both sides of the ball, despite leaving some exploitable gaps in their defense. They have been a bit reliant on outside shooting. Of the players who take 20% of the shots when on the court – a group of DJ Kennedy, Paris Horne, Justin Brownlee, and Dwight Hardy – only one of them has been good at drawing fouls, and that’s Kennedy.  Sean Evans is below that threshold, and draws a decent number of fouls… and then leaves half of those “free” points off the scoreboard.  The fans deeply hope the team has been practicing free throws.

Part of the reason the team is not drawing fouls is because the eager shooters all take a large number of 3-point jump shots.  Granted, they’re not bad at hitting those shots, and the team is turning the ball over less, but some more player movement as a team would be helpful for when those shots aren’t falling.  But so far, Dwight Hardy has been a player, driving more than one would think for a baller advertised as a 3-point shooter.  And Paris Horne is getting his confidence back in his shot. Boothe has been the team’s most capable ballhandler, though Stith has better per-minute assist rates and turnover rates.

Up front, St. John’s hopes to have their full rotation of post players. Justin Burrell fell on a Dukie’s foot that happened to slide underneath him while coming down from a jump shot, and has been out with a high ankle sprain.  His defense and jump shot would be nice to have. Sean Evans has been great on the offensive glass, but turns the ball over a lot, gets his shot blocked, and hasn’t been connecting with the efficiency of last year.

Justin Brownlee’s first shot in each game has been eager and questionable. But when he works on the blocks for rebounds, he is fantastic, collecting boards at both ends, blocking shots, and creating chaos. Rob Thomas continues to be an efficient junkyard dog in the paint.  Dele Coker has flashed hints of nice offensive moves, and has been a shot-blocking monster.  His balance and footwork still earn him cheap fouls, but he has been helpful in the rotation, and finishes strong.

---

Keys to the Game:

Defend the Guards. Greg Monroe will be tough to contend with, but doubling down on him would be a mistake.  He moves well, makes passes, and finds cutting Hoya guards.  St. John’s cannot allow free looks to Freeman/ Clark/ and Wright.  They are more efficient shooters than St. John’s guards have been, and the team has to concentrate on nullifying their influence in the half court.  On run outs, expect those guards to aggressively drive to the basket; hustling back to defend the paint should generate counter attack opportunities.

The Real Sean Evans (and Other Rebounders). Georgetown has been good at getting second shot opportunities.  For a team like St. John’s that sometimes struggles to score, restricting these opportunities is always important. One of the best aspects of Sean’s game is the relentless pursuit of the rebound. All of that strength training the Red Storm players means nothing if the technique isn’t there; Sean has to concentrate on boxing out and getting that rebound. Justin Burrell does as well.  Dominating the glass on both ends gives the team an opportunity to pull out a win on the road.  The Hoyas have height and talent, but the Johnnies have some depth at forward. The team won the March 3rd game against the Hoyas with the offensive glass work.

Ball Security. This is the kind of contest that can be lost with a few careless ballhandling plays in the post.  St. John’s can be careless with the ball;  but the Hoya guards can be careless with the ball as well.  Obviously, a few turnovers could generate the scoring possessions that could win this game.

Jamaica Tough. The game will be physical, with the Hoyas trying to prove something to the team that clawed and fought their way to a pair of wins last year. St. John’s has to remember their defensive principles, the junk defenses they used last year (when Norm Roberts did a very good coaching job), and that their identity is toughness, resilience, and the knowledge that they have not been out of a single game this year – and have come back on some good teams like Siena and Temple.

Hit Some Shots. This applies to the 3-pointers that the perimeter players will take and the free throws that Evans and the other post players will get if they hustle hard and make decisive post moves.  Player movement will frustrate the guards and help create open shots.  Make them work, and then hit those shots.  Every game should be played with intensity and crispness, starting with this one.

Prediction: St. John’s could win this one, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. But an improved Hoya squad, at home, for their Big East opener? I wouldn’t put the big money on the Red Storm, not yet. But Big East openers often open up new possibilities for the teams. Georgetown wins, 67-64.

Transplanted New Yorker and now Midwesterner Peter a/k/a Pico writes for the East Coast Bias and the Church of Bracketology and for Johnny Jungle, doing the Calm Before the Storm posts. Pico is also on Twitter, @ECoastBias.