Bubble Watch

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LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #60 on: March 02, 2015, 09:19:35 PM »
Started with an accidental forearm to the head of a Texas player in a hustle play.  Texas player threw Baylor player off of him.  Teams charged at each other, some shoving ensued.  A few players left each bench.  Didn't see any punches, so shouldn't be any suspensions from that.  Not sure if there's a suspension rule for leaving the bench or if it's just the auto ejection.

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #61 on: March 02, 2015, 09:22:51 PM »
Texas wins by 2.  Big win for profile, but they still need more.  Lucky for them, conference tourney should provide opportunities.

Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #62 on: March 02, 2015, 09:23:53 PM »
Texas wins by 2.  Big win for profile, but they still need more.  Lucky for them, conference tourney should provide opportunities.

That kid Isiah Taylor is a nice person, talking smack after the game at this point in the season

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #63 on: March 02, 2015, 09:27:30 PM »
Texas wins by 2.  Big win for profile, but they still need more.  Lucky for them, conference tourney should provide opportunities.

That kid Isiah Taylor is a nice person, talking smack after the game at this point in the season
I had stopped watching already, anything come of it?

Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #64 on: March 02, 2015, 09:28:56 PM »
Texas wins by 2.  Big win for profile, but they still need more.  Lucky for them, conference tourney should provide opportunities.

That kid Isiah Taylor is a nice person, talking smack after the game at this point in the season
I had stopped watching already, anything come of it?
baylor had to be escorted into tunnel while he continued to jaw away

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #65 on: March 03, 2015, 08:32:19 AM »
3/3/15

Rhode Island (20-7) @ Dayton - Without a top 50 win and only two in the top 70, Rhode Island might be on the outside looking in.  Winning @Dayton would be a step in the right direction, but they would still need more in the conference tourney.

Ole Miss (19-10) @ Alabama - Four top 50 wins and three bad losses will land you on the bubble.  7-7 vs the top 100, two more top 100 games.  Will winning one be enough?

NC State (17-12) @ Clemson - Remember when all they had to do was beat BC?  I would imagine they only need one more, but that would leave them potentially finishing the season at 18-14.  Not sure how the committee would feel about a record like that.

Kentucky @ Georgia (19-9) - This game is not really important.  Georgia looks good, but should avoid a loss in the finale @Auburn

Texas A&M (20-8) @ Florida - A&M only has two top 50 wins, having swept LSU (45), and are 6-8 vs the top 100.  They have avoided bad losses.  Do they need more?  They might, but will have to wait for the conference tourney to get it.

*"Bubble" teams not included from today's games because my omnipotent self has declared them locks include: Georgetown, Iowa, Indiana.  The wise one, Lundardi, has Indiana in his last four byes column.  He is wrong.  They have better/more top 50 wins and less bad losses than his 7 seed Michigan St.  With two top 50 opponents left, Indiana is safely in the tournament.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #66 on: March 03, 2015, 08:46:11 AM »
Blind resumes:

Team A:
RPI: 30 SOS: 22
Top 25: 0-5
Top 50: 3-6
Top 100: 6-8
Top 150: 13-10
Sub 150: 6-0
Road/Neutral W-L: 8-6.  One top 50 road win, two more top 100 road wins.
Two bad losses (139, @124)

Team B:
RPI: 44 SOS: 33
Top 25: 3-4
Top 50: 5-6
Top 100: 8-9
Top 150: 11-10
Sub 150: 8-0
Road/Neutral W-L: 4-8   One neutral top 25 win, one road top 100 win.
One bad loss (@113)


Which one of these teams is three seed lines higher than the other according to Lunardi?
« Last Edit: March 03, 2015, 08:46:34 AM by LoganK »

Tha Kid

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #67 on: March 03, 2015, 09:25:51 AM »
Logan

I can understand you suggesting these teams are similar but it's obvious lunardi is using RPI pretty strictly to put team a above team b.  Which isn't that crazy.  Clearly the top 50 road win and 3 total top 100 road wins are worth a lot combined w better SOS than the one singular top 100 road win for team b.

You also leave out that team a is ahead of team b in conf standings.
"I drink and I know things"

Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #68 on: March 03, 2015, 10:16:41 AM »
Lunardi's strength is predicting who's in the tournament, but his seeding is usually lackluster.

Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #69 on: March 03, 2015, 10:23:51 AM »
Blind resumes:

Team A:
RPI: 30 SOS: 22
Top 25: 0-5


Top 50: 3-6
Top 100: 6-8
Top 150: 13-10
Sub 150: 6-0
Road/Neutral W-L: 8-6.  One top 50 road win, two more top 100 road wins.
Two bad losses (139, @124)

Team B:
RPI: 44 SOS: 33
Top 25: 3-4
Top 50: 5-6
Top 100: 8-9
Top 150: 11-10
Sub 150: 8-0
Road/Neutral W-L: 4-8   One neutral top 25 win, one road top 100 win.
One bad loss (@113)


Which one of these teams is three seed lines higher than the other according to Lunardi?

I like team B better. RPI's are off this year to me. 3 top 25 wins compared to 0.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2015, 10:25:49 AM by Amaseinyourface2 »
*wipes ketchup from his eyes* - I guess Heinz sight isn’t 20/20.

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #70 on: March 03, 2015, 04:50:35 PM »
Logan

I can understand you suggesting these teams are similar but it's obvious lunardi is using RPI pretty strictly to put team a above team b.  Which isn't that crazy.  Clearly the top 50 road win and 3 total top 100 road wins are worth a lot combined w better SOS than the one singular top 100 road win for team b.

You also leave out that team a is ahead of team b in conf standings.
I like team B better. RPI's are off this year to me. 3 top 25 wins compared to 0.
I've been on MSU for a while now (like I was with Texas until bracketologists caught on), in stating that they are being very over seeded across the board.  Same feeling I had about SMU last year (would've looked like a genius if I had made a stink about it prior to selection sunday :P).  Would have to imagine a neutral win over #23 is better than a road win over #48 in the committee's eyes.  Don't forget, NCAA tournament games are played on neutral courts.  The other two road wins were against 69 and 70.  Certainly not easy games, but also not something to prompt a 7 seed.  Indiana also has the road win against #60, so it's not like they have nothing else to compare.  Like Mase said, I'll take three top 25 wins over 0 every day of the week when all other things are relatively equal.  Plus, only one of the two teams lost at home to Texas Southern.  I didn't necessarily leave out the conference records, just figured they weren't relevant, especially in a conference with unbalanced schedules.

In case some of you haven't figured it out, Team A is Michigan State and Team B is Indiana.

In MSU's favor: higher RPI, higher non-conf SOS, one game up in conference standings, better road/neutral record vs top 100 (3-5 vs 2-7)
In Indiana's favor: three wins that are better than any of MSU's, better top 25/50/100 record, better sub 100 record

Despite the tougher schedule, MSU still doesn't have the wins that Indiana has.  I think that says a lot.  The main point was myself and others feel Indiana has a stronger profile.  Even if we are the minority, MSU being 3 seed lines higher is a joke IMO.

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #71 on: March 03, 2015, 04:55:51 PM »
I think the Big Ten and the Pac-12 bubble teams will present a lot of interesting cases for the committee.  Pac-12 especially are loaded with wins in the 50-100 range (see Oregon and Stanford), but have little in the top 50 (only three conference teams currently in top 50).  Big Ten will be tough to separate in terms of seeding overall, because the profiles are so similar.  Should be fun to watch.

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #72 on: March 03, 2015, 09:39:26 PM »
3/3/15 - results

Rhode Island (20-7) @ Dayton -   Dayton 75 URI 59  Good luck winning the conference tourney Rhode Island.

Ole Miss (19-10) @ Alabama -   Ole Miss 82 Alabama 74   Beat Vanderbilt and I would imagine they are locked.  Those three home losses though...

NC State (17-12) @ Clemson -   NC State 66 Clemson 61   Three top 15 wins.  5-6 vs top 50, 8-10 vs top 100.  Two bad losses. 9-8 in conference.  Have a chance to get in even if they finish 18-14.

Kentucky @ Georgia (19-9) -   Kentucky 72 Georgia 64  Slightly inflated computer numbers thanks to two games against Kentucky.  Swept Ole miss and won @Texas A&M.  9-7 top 100.  Two bad losses. 10-7 in conference.

Texas A&M (20-8) @ Florida -   Florida 66 Texas A&M 62    They're 11-6 in the SEC but their only two top 50 wins are a sweep of #45 LSU.  6-8 vs top 100.  No bad losses.

*Indiana is apparently going to test my theory that they could lose to Iowa and MSU and still make the tourney.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.Modify message
« Last Edit: March 04, 2015, 12:06:43 AM by LoganK »

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #73 on: March 04, 2015, 04:28:49 PM »
3/4/15

Tennessee @ LSU (21-8) -  Beat Tennessee and they should be in.  4 top 50 wins, three bad losses.

Miami (18-11) @ Pitt (19-11) -  Play out game. Winner still has work to do, loser is done.

Purdue (19-10) @ Michigan State (19-10) -  As long as MSU wins this one or the finale against Indiana they should be fine.  Purdue is in the same boat IMO, win this or against Illinois.

TCU @ Oklahoma St. (17-11)  -  6 good wins, one and a half bad losses.  Will most likely get in, only issue is the overall record.  Beat TCU and they are a lock.

Cincinnati (20-9) @ Tulsa (21-7) -   I think Cinci is in decent shape despite a couple of very bad losses.  Could really use this win to sure it up.  Tulsa needs this, and possibly the finale against SMU.  At least one of the two...

USC @ UCLA (18-12) -  Two pretty bad losses (but not horrible), two good wins, a lot of meh in-between.  UCLA needs to make noise in the conference tourney, this game can only hurt them.

Colorado State (24-5) @ Nevada -  Even with a win that top 30 RPI will drop.  Win this and the finale and they should be fine.

Nebraska @ Illinois (18-11) -  5-10 vs top 100.  One bad loss (to Nebraska).  Win this and beat Purdue and they are a lock.  Lose one and they will remain on the bubble heading into conference tourney.

Boise State (22-7) @ San Jose State - 3-3 vs top 50, 6-4 vs top 100, a few questionable losses.  That's bubble material, just not sure which side they land on.  Lose here or in the finale against Fresno St. and it will make the decision easier.

San Diego State (22-7) @ UNLV -  They would probably still get in with three losses to end the season, but they would be on the bubble, and stranger things have happened.

Oregon (22-8) @ Oregon State -  One top 50 win (Utah), but 8 in the 50-100 range.  Beat Oregon St. and they should be in.

*Teams I project as in are in bold.  Teams who are in but can fall out are also underlined.  Teams who are out but can creep in are italicized.

Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #74 on: March 04, 2015, 04:38:12 PM »
Logan great  job with this. Much appreciated!
« Last Edit: March 04, 2015, 04:38:34 PM by Marco Baldi »

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #75 on: March 04, 2015, 04:42:38 PM »
Logan great  job with this. Much appreciated!
Thanks!  My pleasure

Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #76 on: March 04, 2015, 04:44:50 PM »
3/4/15

Tennessee @ LSU (21-8) -  Beat Tennessee and they should be in.  4 top 50 wins, three bad losses.

Miami (18-11) @ Pitt (19-11) -  Play out game. Winner still has work to do, loser is done.

Purdue (19-10) @ Michigan State (19-10) -  As long as MSU wins this one or the finale against Indiana they should be fine.  Purdue is in the same boat IMO, win this or against Illinois.

TCU @ Oklahoma St. (17-11)  -  6 good wins, one and a half bad losses.  Will most likely get in, only issue is the overall record.  Beat TCU and they are a lock.

Cincinnati (20-9) @ Tulsa (21-7) -   I think Cinci is in decent shape despite a couple of very bad losses.  Could really use this win to sure it up.  Tulsa needs this, and possibly the finale against SMU.  At least one of the two...

USC @ UCLA (18-12) -  Two pretty bad losses (but not horrible), two good wins, a lot of meh in-between.  UCLA needs to make noise in the conference tourney, this game can only hurt them.

Colorado State (24-5) @ Nevada -  Even with a win that top 30 RPI will drop.  Win this and the finale and they should be fine.

Nebraska @ Illinois (18-11) -  5-10 vs top 100.  One bad loss (to Nebraska).  Win this and beat Purdue and they are a lock.  Lose one and they will remain on the bubble heading into conference tourney.

Boise State (22-7) @ San Jose State - 3-3 vs top 50, 6-4 vs top 100, a few questionable losses.  That's bubble material, just not sure which side they land on.  Lose here or in the finale against Fresno St. and it will make the decision easier.

San Diego State (22-7) @ UNLV -  They would probably still get in with three losses to end the season, but they would be on the bubble, and stranger things have happened.

Oregon (22-8) @ Oregon State -  One top 50 win (Utah), but 8 in the 50-100 range.  Beat Oregon St. and they should be in.

*Teams I project as in are in bold.  Teams who are in but can fall out are also underlined.  Teams who are out but can creep in are italicized.
I've been totally hooked with the ongoing schedule/comments - keep it coming.


The over-arching question is - will the committee gravitate to the mid-majors on this bubble, or give the nod to crazy teams like Texas and others who I feel don't deserve to be in with 8-10 conference records.  They're all not going anywhere for too long, so why bother with the struggling power 5 schools.

LoganK

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #77 on: March 04, 2015, 05:34:16 PM »
The problem is there aren't many mid-majors competing for spots this year, at least compared to recent years (from my memory, which is shite).  Excluding the power 5 + AAC and A10, you have teams like BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State (kinda, like I said, they're probably in), Old Dominion (barely).  I may have left one or two out but that's pretty much it.  As for locks, there's Northern Iowa, Wichita St., Gonzaga....that's about it.  That's 4 conferences (if ODU is actually an at-large team, 3 if not).  What this means is that there won't be that many "bid thieves" this year, leaving more spots for power conference teams.  It will come down to what the majority of the committee prefers; be it big wins, no bad losses, good computer numbers, etc.  Should be interesting to see how it plays out.
If Texas makes the tournament, it will be based off of their perceived potential.  I, like you, don't see their resume as being worthy.

hnk

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Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #78 on: March 04, 2015, 05:39:47 PM »
Anyone know who is on the selection committee this year? Anyone from Big East or the region?  too lazy to look it up.

Re: Bubble Watch
« Reply #79 on: March 04, 2015, 05:41:39 PM »
Why is Indiana firmly in?