Bubble Watch

Never wanted the old big east to end. But I am very happy it did. We now have a fair shot even a better shot then most other schools in conference.

Why are we so far Butler, Providence, and georgetown on most brackets? They are all 6 seeds we are an 8?

I assume it is because of their respective RPI. Providence is 20, G'town is 22, and Butler is 26 according to ESPN. We are 33. That would seem to account for the seed difference.

Why are we so far Butler, Providence, and georgetown on most brackets? They are all 6 seeds we are an 8?

Tony, I think when your on the way up there is a bit of a delay the way your perceived. The teams you mentioned are all tied for second, while we are a fifth place team. If we don't make the semi's we are not getting much of a seed. It could be 2 or 3 lines lower then the teams now in second. I'm guessing, but winning the 4-5 game might be worth 2 lines in the tourny. I'm wired about making it to Friday night. It's efen MSG, and SJU should be part of that double header. I've been a broken record on that point. Sorry. It also gives a a better chance of knocking off Nova then Sat. does.

Why are we so far Butler, Providence, and georgetown on most brackets? They are all 6 seeds we are an 8?

IMO...Lunardi has us too low in his latest update.   I think we are a 7 seed right now if the brackets were announced today.  VCU (a 7 seed) getting destroyed last night helps. 

Quote from: TONYD3 on March 06, 2015, 10:12:35 AM

Why are we so far Butler, Providence, and georgetown on most brackets? They are all 6 seeds we are an 8?

IMO...Lunardi has us too low in his latest update.   I think we are a 7 seed right now if the brackets were announced today.  VCU (a 7 seed) getting destroyed last night helps. 

bracket matrix has us as a 7, and butler/gtwon/pc all as sixes.  that seems about right. 

Why are we so far Butler, Providence, and georgetown on most brackets? They are all 6 seeds we are an 8?

Simply put, their resumes are better (though not by much).
Butler: 5-7 top 50, 7-9 top 100, no bad losses.  (and their top win is better than ours)
Georgetown: 4-9 top 50, 7-9 top 100, no bad losses.  (and their top win is better than ours)
Providence: 5-6 top 50, 11-6 top 100, two bad losses, one horrible loss. 
St. John's: 5-6 top 50, 9-7 top 100, two bad losses.

I have Butler and G'town as 5/6 seeds, and Prov as a 6/7, SJU as an 8.  Providence is the only one I thought might have an argument to be moved behind us with their three bad losses, but they're 11-6 vs the top 100 which is pretty darned impressive.
There is not much of a difference between profiles in the 5-9 range outside of personal taste for the most part, that's what makes it difficult to seed them correctly.  For what it's worth, when I run through a bracketology, I don't use the eye test at all.  The only team I know well enough to judge how well they play is SJU, so I assume that every team's season is strictly a function of their profile, regardless of how they actually play.

Completely hypothetical of course, but if we ran the table until Selection Sunday, what's our ceiling for seed?

Completely hypothetical of course, but if we ran the table until Selection Sunday, what's our ceiling for seed?

I've been thinking about this for a while.  Obviously it depends who we play, but I'd say we could end up as a protected 4 seed.

If it meant two more wins against Nova, and two wins against G'town/Prov/Butler/Xavier

Completely hypothetical of course, but if we ran the table until Selection Sunday, what's our ceiling for seed?

Wins over Nova, Butler, Nova, and Providence, for example. That's 2 additional top 10 wins, and 2 more top 25ish wins, ending us at 25-9 for the season.  I'd say that gets us a 4 seed, maybe a small chance at a 3.

But I'll defer to our resident expert, LoganK, of course.  Just taking a shot at it.

Quote from: 0404 on March 06, 2015, 04:36:27 PM

Completely hypothetical of course, but if we ran the table until Selection Sunday, what's our ceiling for seed?

Wins over Nova, Butler, Nova, and Providence, for example. That's 2 additional top 10 wins, and 2 more top 25ish wins, ending us at 25-9 for the season.  I'd say that gets us a 4 seed, maybe a small chance at a 3.

But I'll defer to our resident expert, LoganK, of course.  Just taking a shot at it.

FIRST!   I'm certainly no expert (although I do spend way too much time looking at this stuff), but what you said is dead on IMO.  Also depends what other teams do...

I want to avoid Kentucky, Arizona , and Wisconsin as long as possible. Don't really care about seed. Don't want to play them.

3/6/15  - No bubble games on tonight.  Thank god.  I get a break

From espn bubble watch:
"We've got to admit: We did not see St. John's coming. If you'd told us a month ago that we'd be locking up the Red Storm at any point before Selection Sunday, we would have politely informed you that the Bubble Watch doesn't cover the NIT. From Dec. 31 to Feb. 3, the Red Storm went 3-7, lost to DePaul, Creighton and (pre-collapse) Seton Hall, let a home game against Duke slip through their fingers, and generally looked like the kind of talented but disjointed outfit that costs coaches with just one year left on their contracts -- in this case, Steve Lavin -- their jobs. Since then, the Johnnies are 7-1, including a convincing win at Marquette Wednesday that eliminated any and all bad-loss potential from the regular-season schedule. On Saturday, the Red Storm go to Villanova, where a win would be insane and a loss doesn't matter. They've swept Providence and Xavier, beat Georgetown handily on Feb. 28, and are playing their best basketball at the best possible time. Believe it or not, the Johnnies are a lock."

This is one of the most spot-on pieces I've read on SJU in quite some time. 

If we win out rpi forecast expects an rpi of 15 so we would be 4 seed most likely

Completely hypothetical of course, but if we ran the table until Selection Sunday, what's our ceiling for seed?

Ceiling is a 4 if we beat Nova twice on our way to a BE championship. 

3/7/15

Stanford (18-11) @ Arizona - This might be a must win barring a run to the conference tourney final.

Miami (19-11) @ Virginia Tech - This profile can't handle another bad loss.  Must win.

Michigan State @ Indiana (19-11) - I'm only putting them on here because they're being annoying, and doing everything possible to make me look bad.  I think they're in regardless, fairly easily.  Some pundits seem to disagree.

UConn @ Temple (21-9) - The more I look at Temple's profile the less I like it.  I'm not sure what that means, but they should really win this game...

Alabama @ Texas A&M (20-9) - They've beaten LSU twice.  They don't have any bad losses.  That's all the good things I can say about their profile.  I'm hoping the committee doesn't just include them based on their (potential) 12-6 conference record.

Kansas St @ Texas (18-12) - While they could handle a loss to K State (assuming at least one win in Big 12 tourney), it would (obviously) be better to win.  Not the best time to be playing K state...

Georgia (19-10) @ Auburn - After looking at their profile, I can't believe I have them as a 9 seed.  Either I'm forgetting how soft the bubble is, or I have them overvalued.  Don't lose to Auburn...again.

Fresno State @ Boise State (21-7) - Boise State is looking pretty good, but a home loss to Fresno St could change that.

Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss (20-10) - They can probably afford a loss here, but why risk it.

Davidson (22-6) @ Duquesne - Similar to Boise State, don't lose to a crappy team in the last game of the regular season.

Syracuse @ NC State (18-12) - Win this and it's a lock.  Lose this, and they might need to win 2 in the ACC tourney.

Xavier (18-12) @ Creighton - Xavier has a very nice profile....except for those 4 bad losses.  Avoid bad loss #5 and they lock up a bid.

Illinois (19-11) @ Purdue (19-11) - If Illinois wins, I think they will both be in my projected field.  A Purdue win will make it difficult for Illinois to climb back in.

Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion (23-6) - Already a longshot, ODU needs to win.  Then win some more.

*Bold means in.  Bold with an underline means in, but can fall out.  Italics means out.

It's nice to be off the bubble for the right reason!

3/7/15

Stanford (18-11) @ Arizona - Arizona 91 Stanford 69   Essentially, pop.

Miami (19-11) @ Virginia Tech -   Miami 82 VT 61  Bad loss avoided

Michigan State @ Indiana (19-11) -  Michigan State 74 Indiana 72   I hate you Indiana.  If you lose your first B1G tournament game, I will project you as out purely out of spite (although I still think they're in)

UConn @ Temple (21-9) - Temple 75 UConn 63  Good work.  Now go get a top 50 win in the conference tourney.

Alabama @ Texas A&M (20-9) - Alabama 61 Texas A&M 60   I don't think they make it without a run to the SEC finals.

Kansas St @ Texas (18-12) -   Texas 62 Kansas St 49  Texas will be in good shape as long as they beat Texas Tech in the first round.

Georgia (19-10) @ Auburn -   Georgia 64 Auburn 61  They are in. But I still don't like their resume.

Fresno State @ Boise State (21-7) -  Boise State 71 Fresno State 52

Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss (20-10) -   Vanderbilt 86 Ole Miss 77  I think they'll be fine, but, not the way to make a statement.

Davidson (22-6) @ Duquesne -  Davidson 107 Duquesne 78  Davidson earns the #1 seed in the A-10 tourney.

Syracuse @ NC State (18-12) - NC State 71 Syr 57  Lock.

Xavier (18-12) @ Creighton - Xaver 74 Creighton 73 Lock...but only because they're playing Butler, and a loss won't hurt.

Illinois (19-11) @ Purdue (19-11) -   Purdue 63 Illinois 58  Purdue = Lock.  Illinois = Pop without a run to the finals.

Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion (23-6) - ODU 75 WKU 52  If ODU loses in their tournament final, bubble teams everywhere will very anxious...

*Bold means in.  Bold with an underline means in, but can fall out.  Italics means out.