Refocusing in the Bluegrass State

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Saturday at noon will see the St. John’s Red Storm return to basketball action against Rick Pitino’s Louisville Cardinals. Since the Cardinals joined the Big East, they have beaten St. John’s 3 out of 4 conference matches. And a bit of trivia: the Red Storm has never faced them twice in a year. The Cardinals have put a tumultuous offseason for the Coach Pitino, along with some eyebrow raising losses to unheralded North Carolina schools behind them. And they have started 2-0 in the Big East. St. John’s comes is 0-2 and in need of a signature league win to renew confidence that the team is as good as some thought they were earlier in the year.

It’s tough to have a week between games after a bad conference loss, especially for a team that’s been down as long as St. John’s has been in the Big East hierarchy. A road trip to Louisville is not what the doctor would order… if there was a doctor for the team’s inconsistent performances. The return of Anthony Mason Jr. to limited basketball action could be a nudge in a positive direction. Malik Boothe is expected to return from a groin injury suffered against the Georgetown Hoyas. New players require the juggling of time, but more weapons mean a more dangerous (potentially) offensive and defensive team for the Johnnies. Both sides of the ball need to improve; the team cannot cough up as many turnovers as they did against Providence, or shoot as badly as they did against them and win.

Louisville is what they have been for a long time under Rick Pitino – a fast-paced, turnover-forcing team of athletes who go 8-10 deep with talent. They concentrate on defense and hustle; they are elite at forcing turnovers and absolute monsters on the offensive glass. They score most effectively inside, though their guards split their shot attempts evenly between the area inside the arc and outside.

However…. the Cardinals could stroke from the outside better, and they could rebound on defense more tenaciously. And at times, teams find themselves putting up comfortable shots – as Providence did in the first half against them on Wednesday. Louisville’s youth also shows at times with the fouls they commit; previous teams enjoyed the fortune of longer athletes who can cover more ground without physically bumping opponents.

Despite the loss against Kentucky, the Cardinals are quickly forming into shape. Can St. John’s hold on to the ball and surprise the folks in Freedom Hall with a road win?

Game Information

Tip Off: 12:00 PM, Saturday, January 9
Location: Freedom Hall
TV: SNY/ ESPN 360
Radio: Bloomberg 1130

Team Reviews

Louisville (11-4, 2-0)

10 PG Edgar Sosa SR 6’2 175: 14 ppg* 4.1 apg* 40.5% 3PT

34 G Jerry Smith SR 6′2 190: 9.2 ppg* 2.5 apg* 3.7 rpg* 1.2 spg

12 G Reginald Delk SR 6′5 200: 6.7 ppg* 46.3% 3PT

21 F Jared Swopshire SO 6′8 220: 8.1 ppg* 5.9 rpg* .8 spg* 33.3% 3PT

15 F/C Samardo Samuels SO 6′9 260: 15.9 ppg* 7.8 rpg* 1 bpg* 7.8 FTAtt/g

Bench

2 G Preston Knowles JR 6′1 190: 21.4 mpg* 8.2 ppg* 3.6 rpg* 3.3 apg* 1.3 spg

14 G Kyle Kuric SO 6′4 190: 14.2 mpg* 4.2 ppg* 3.3 rpg* .9 spg

23 F Terrence Jennings SO 6′10 240: 13.8 mpg* 6.1 ppg* 3.9 rpg* 1.1 bpg

4 F Rakeem Buckles FR 6′8 215: 12.2 mpg* 3.5ppg* 4 rpg

3 PG Peyton Siva FR 6′0 175: 12 mpg* 3.9 ppg* 1.8 apg* 1.3 spg

Don’t let the mediocre-sounding counting stats fool you. Louisville generally plays a large number of players, running equally talented athletes in to run their press and to keep the pressure on opponents. Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa play the most time and are most likely to shoot on any given possession. Samuels is the centerpiece of the team and is blossoming in his sophomore year, though he still has not become a complete rebounder; his real glass damage is done on the offensive end. The team feeds the post well – I see them doing it from the top of the key a lot – and St. John’s needs to find a way to keep Samuels shot attempts difficult, for he gets good deep position. Also up front, Jared Swopshire is progressing into a beast rebounder this year. Though lanky, he will chase balls out of his area and pull them in with great hands. But his shooting could use some work. His length makes itself known as a secondary defender, altering shots.  Terrence Jennings – when he can stay on the floor – is even more effective as a weakside defender.  Rakeem Buckles also plays well down low.

Sosa’s having an excellent senior year, and soon, he won’t have to play the team he hates so much anymore. We’ll both be happy.  His shot attempts are evenly divided between 2’s and 3’s (he will drive to the hoop and take jumpers from the left and right of the center of the arc), and he is passing the ball well.  He turns the ball over a bit, as always. The starters are a 3-guard lineup, though Reginald Delk has good height for a wing. Tony Delk’s nephew doesn’t turn the ball over at all. He is also shooting lights-out in his time so far. Jerry Smith is a steady senior who makes defensive plays even though his 3-point shooting has been errant. Preston Knowles has an ability to make plays no matter how he’s shooting; he is impressive in his ability to stay in the game mentally. Peyton Siva is an impressive freshman who doesn’t get a lot of time (and sometimes has freshman mistakes at the lead guard position).

St. John’s (10-4, 0-2)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 5.3 ppg* 2.5 rpg* 2.2 apg* 1.1 spg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.6 ppg* 3.1 rpg* 1.5 apg* 1 spg* 38.2% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 16.0 ppg* 6.6 rpg* 3.7 apg* 37% 3PT

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 5.3 ppg* 3.1 rpg* 56.8% FG

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 7.2 ppg* 6.7 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 23.3 mpg* 11.4 ppg* 40.8% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 22.6 mpg* 8.5 ppg* 6.0 rpg* 1 spg* 1.1 bpg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 11.4 mpg* 2.4 ppg* 2.5 rpg* 1.6 bpg* 70% FG

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: (has not played)

Without Malik Boothe at point guard, the team was burned by turnovers and poor shooting; the team couldn’t handle the full court press.  That doesn’t bode well for them; Louisville is known for various presses, zones and man.  Without a better plan against zones (and St. John’s has always had trouble with pressure from high level teams with this roster), the team could find themselves down a lot early.

As well, the team needs to find a way to free up Dwight Hardy for shots in crunch time.  He was handling the ball more than he needed to, and was not aggressive with his shot.  As a team, the Red Storm has to play team ball, keep the Cardinal defense moving, and use the post a little bit.  Burrell and Evans took 7 shots; that’s ignoring the post.

Keys to the Game

Handle the Press. First and foremost, St. John’s has to handle the defensive pressure Louisville will be eager to bring. The ballhandling has to be tight, and they have to pass their way out of traps.  Offensive awareness and teamwork are key.  If St. John’s has a great day NOT turning over the ball, and getting quick shots that they make, there is a strong chance they will surprise the Cards on the road.

Work The Glass. Louisville is an impressive rebounding team… and St. John’s isn’t bad themselves when they put their minds and bodies to it.  The game has to involve a lot of physical rough play to jockey for position and win the rebounds.  Second chance points will draw fouls and easy shots in the half court sets.

The Meat Grinder. Slow the game down. Make it physical.  In a fast-paced game, St. John’s is likely to come out the loser; while the Red Storm has shooters, they sometimes go cold, while Louisville has a full roster of inside and out scoring.

Make The Understudies Make Plays. Stopping the stars isn’t enough; Pitino’s team can win with contributions from their bench and role players. But If those role players have to become the stars?  Some of the youth on the Cardinals has been inconsistent.  If St. John’s can minimize Samardo Samuels’ effect inside, and frustrate Edgar Sosa, that leaves the game up to some players who may not be ready to take the game over.  Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles are experienced, talented players; but the backup forwards are learning their way in the game.

Get Hot In the Winter. St. John’s will also need either a hot shooting not overall, or a great stretch of scoring to hang with the Cardinals.  They’ll get some run outs – and need to make those shots count.  But I think this game will require a run of difficult/ defended shots, good offensive movement, and determined play.

Prediction: A tough road game for the Storm. Louisville wins, 75-62.

Transplanted New Yorker and now Midwesterner Peter a/k/a Pico writes for the East Coast Bias and the Church of Bracketology and for Johnny Jungle, doing the Calm Before the Storm posts. Pico is also on Twitter, @ECoastBias.