Wishin' and Hopin'

Ambiance: Skee-Lo, I Wish (video link, pops up in a new window)

Coach Norm Roberts – On advice for his team going forward:

“We will continue to play the way we have been playing. We will win our share. Some will go our way. We have to continue to play hard.”

The Red Storm were close, so close to an upset win over Marquette, one of the top-8 teams in the conference. A win would have had St. John’s at 6-9 in the Big East, and in spitting distance of this year’s parity – in 12th place, but a game back of the 8th-11th teams. For all the gnashing of teeth and the losses, St. John’s is not only competitive, but has an outside chance at the NIT with a lot of breaks. One wonders what would have happened if St. John’s could have beaten Providence… or Rutgers… or Seton Hall… or Marquette. 2-2 in those games would have the Johnnies in the NIT picture with an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament.

And if I were a little bit taller, I’d be a baller.

It’s too bad that close doesn’t matter, because truth be told, the team has played better in recent weeks. There is some passion, some effective play from all positions (instead of DJ Kennedy trying to carry the team). And to their credit, the team is still fighting hard to win the tough games, but has found themselves a step behind both good teams and the bad teams they have lost to.

Can that change in this late season rematch against Pittsburgh? In the last game, St. John’s allowed 52% shooting to the Panthers in the second half, and most of that damage was done inside the arc. The Red Storm also shot much more poorly in that second half, shooting 26.7% (as opposed to 39% in the first half). The Red Storm consistently beat the Panthers to the boards, especially in the second half – but that may have been because those (offensive) rebounds were available with such poor shooting. Ashton Gibbs was held in check from the perimeter; but Brad Wanamaker and Gary McGhee scored 16 and 10 points on a total of 17 shots.

There is still an outside chance for the team to see the postseason. Can the Red Storm beat the Panthers at home in the rematch and keep hope alive?

Game Information

Tip Off: 12:00 PM, Saturday, February 27
Location: Madison Square Garden
TV: MSG
Radio: Bloomberg 1130/ WSJU

---

Team Reviews

Pittsburgh (21-7, 10-5)

12 G Ashton Gibbs SO 6’2 190: 16.2 ppg* 2 apg* 2.4 rpg* 38.8% 3PT

22 G Brad Wanamaker JR 6’4 210: 12.2 ppg* 6 rpg* 4.4 apg* 1.1 spg

24 G Jermaine Dixon JR 6’3 200: 10.4 ppg* 2.9 rpg* 2.3 apg

35 F Nasir Robinson SR 6’10 250: 6.4 ppg* 5.6 rpg* 1.5 apg

52 C Gary McGhee JR 6’8 235: 7.4 ppg* 7 rpg* 1.8 bpg* 64.1% FG

Bench

1 G Travon Woodall SO 5’11 190: 20.5 mpg* 5.1 ppg* 2.4 rpg* 3.3 apg

5 F Gilbert Brown JR 6’6 210: 25.3 mpg* 10.6 ppg* 3.2 rpg* 51.2% FG

11 F-C Dante Taylor FR 6’9 240: 13.9 mpg* 4.0 ppg* 3.8 rpg* 57.4% FG

The 12th ranked – or 16th ranked, depending on which poll you look at – Pittsburgh Panthers are pretty much the same as before – a defensively-oriented squad that sometimes struggles to score. You can read the breakdowns of the players from the earlier Calm Before the Storm; and for some updates, let’s turn back to Pitt bloggers Eye of a Panther and Pitt Blather.

Pitt Blather on what’s different from January’s meeting:

Well, Jermaine Dixon is healthy. He was already missing practice time with a sore ankle — that he further aggravated in the last meeting. That adds defensive intensity. Also, guard Travon Woodall has found his confidence and is back in the rotation, creating more depth and taking some pressure off of Ashton Gibbs.

Really, it just seems to be players still improving. Gary McGhee has displayed noticeably more confidence in games lately. Calling for the ball. Better passing back outside.

More from Eye of a Panther:

[Gary McGhee] has definitely improved and has been playing better since the last game against St. John’s. In the past eight games, he’s gotten to double digits in rebounds in half of them and he’s been more of a force. Pitt will really be counting on him to rebound well as they really were beaten up on the boards in the first game.

Pitt’s backup point guard Travon Woodall has also been improving, and that in turn, has helped Ashton Gibbs break out of a bit of a funk. Woodall had averaged about 2.3 turnovers per game going into the first game against St. John’s. Since then, he’s averaged only .7 per game. He’s not a huge contributing scorer, but his ability to play mistake-free ball has really helped take some of the load off of Gibbs. And when they’re both in the game, Gibbs can focus on getting open for shots rather than trying to get the ball upcourt and set up the offense.

I don’t think anyone’s regressed significantly, but Pitt’s McDonald’s All-American freshman, Dante Taylor, has been less of a factor. He had shown some glimpses and been serviceable at times early in the season, but over the past ten games, he’s really seen a reduced role.

On Keys to Beating Pitt, we’ll start with Eye of a Panther:

There are lots of ways Pitt can lose, but if I had to single out one thing (other than lights-out shooting, which did Pitt in against Notre Dame), the easiest way is to beat them on the glass. In Pitt’s seven losses, they’re -16 (-2.29 per game) in rebounding. That might not sound like a ton, but when you factor in how important rebounding is to Pitt, it’s actually quite a bit. Contrast that with Pitt’s +123 over their 19 wins (average of 6.33 per game) and you see just how important it truly is. Pitt thrives on limiting teams to one shot and grabbing offensive rebounds.

Plenty of things worry me about Saturday’s game. Pitt is 1-2 in their last three against St. John’s at home for starters. Also, if Pitt is outrebounded like they were in the first game (-10), they could be in trouble. The rebounding was a problem in the last game (though part of that was due to ridiculously hot shooting by Notre Dame) and it could carry over. And even though I believe Pitt is the better team, they’ve had their share of struggles against teams they probably should have beaten.

And back to Pitt Blather, on why they lost to Notre Dame:

Credit ND. They played a fantastic game. They were knocking down 3s — open and contested. They had some fantastic ball movement last night. It was a very efficient and impressive offensive performance. Especially since it was never an up-and-down game. ND showed a patience I did not think they had in them.

Between them hitting their shots and a defense that packed it inside, they goaded Pitt into settling for jumpers and not getting it inside or driving to the hoop.

St. John’s (15-12, 5-10)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 4.4 ppg* 2.3 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.2 ppg* 2.8 rpg* 36.4% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 14.7 ppg* 6.2 rpg* 3.0 apg* 33.3% 3PT* 1.2 spg

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 6.7 ppg* 5.1 rpg* 1.8 apg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 6.8 ppg* 5.9 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 22.7 mpg* 10.6 ppg* 40% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 18.9 mpg* 6.7 ppg* 4.9 rpg

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 19.5 mpg* 6.7 ppg* 4.1 rpg* 49.6% FG* 30.8% 3PT

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 12.1 mpg* 1.8 ppg* 1.3 apg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 8.9 mpg* 2.0 ppg* 1.8 rpg* 1.0 bpg* 66.7% FG

Keys to the Game

Convert Missed Shots. The earlier game saw a lot of that St. John’s special talent of getting to offensive boards, and smacking the ball with the hope it goes through the net. If St. John’s can convert some of those tips into second chance points, they will have an excellent chance to steal the game.

Stop Ashton Again (And Guard the Perimeter). Ashton Gibbs has more help this time around in Travon Woodall and a more healthy Jermaine Dixon, but he is still the ban. If they can’t bomb from the outside, the team can stagnate.

Stay Sharp. Pittsburgh is okay with playing a slugfest and pulling out the game with some key stops and a strong play at the end. In the earlier game, Gary McGhee scored a late bucket that solidified their chances of winning on a pick and roll where no St. John’s defender rolled back to the basket. The Red Storm have to stay sharp and play better defense for the whole game; some missed assignments will create easy opportunities or free throws.

Turnover Battle. St. John’s found it difficult to get Marquette to turn the ball over; they have to force the Panthers into tough spots and generate a few key TOs, while minimizing their own turnovers.

Do It, Fluid. St. John’s has to get back to the movement, offense, and execution that served them well against Louisville and South Florida. Confidence and aggressiveness have their rewards.

Prediction: St. John’s puts up a good effort and pulls it out; 60-58, St. John’s.

Transplanted New Yorker and now Midwesterner Peter a/k/a Pico writes for the East Coast Bias and the Church of Bracketology and for Johnny Jungle, doing the Calm Before the Storm posts. Pico is also on Twitter, @ECoastBias.