Are You Experienced?

We had a good stretch over the past five games, just playing more efficiently on the offensive end of the floor.
– Steve Lavin, pregame media conference

At 3-0 in the Big East, the Red Storm are in sole possession of first place.

Hands up if you predicted that.

Now all five of you, stop gloating. The Red Storm have been sharp early. The team is finding ways to win, playing solid defense against three Big East squads that entered conference play with Big Expectations.  But the Big East’s season is a long season. It’s unforgiving; as Steve Lavin likes to say, it is a marathon.

The next leg of the race takes the Red Storm through Notre Dame, where the Fighting Irish are formidable at home. In fact, the last time they lost at home was to St. John’s, last Valentine’s Day. Like the Red Storm, they start and play mostly seniors; they are (by minutes played) one of the oldest teams in the country – second oldest in the Big East to St. John’s.  Their players have been steeped in Mike Brey’s philosophy.

But the Red Storm have defeated the Fighting Irish in South Bend before. Does St. John’s have enough firepower to defeat the Fighting Irish in South Bend again?

[gigpress_related_shows]

Notre Dame (13-2, 2-1)

The Fighting Irish are ranked either 14th or 15th, depending on what poll you choose to follow. Their senior-laden team has won with offense, as one expects from a Mike Brey team – good spacing, always ready to shoot, versatile in the halfcourt. But this year, they have added some defensive intensity, generally holding teams down on defense by playing back and walling off the paint. And they are good at it, even though they generally play only 6 players for major minutes.

But when the outside shots aren’t falling, it seems that the interior scoring isn’t enough to pace the Irish – at least not in the losses to Kentucky and Syracuse.  For St. John’s, stopping their outside shooting is key. Easier said than done.  While Tim Abromaitis is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, the high level of play is paced by Ben Hansbrough.

Pressed into action as point guard after the graduation of Tory Jackson, Hansbrough has been very good. He has handed out a decent number of assists. But his skills as a combo guard allow him to probe and attack, to shoot in transition, and to be a pest defender. He is also the team’s most accurate outside shooter. Backing him up – and sometimes allowing Hansbrough to play off the ball – is freshman Eric Atkins, who has been reluctant to shoot, but pretty effective in his apprenticeship role.

Carleton Scott, Tim Abromaitis, and Scott Martin are nearly interchangeable parts. All three are 6’7″ or 6″8″, can shoot well from the outside. Abromaitis is probably the purest shooter of the three and attempts the most shots. Scott can block shots in the paint, and is the best interior scorer of the starters. Both rebound the defensive end well and are willing to make a pass. Scott Martin is another shooter, but takes more shots in the paint.

Tyrone Nash patrols the paint, though he is the same size as the others. He draws fouls at a high rate and is the team’s best offensive rebounder. Jack Cooley gets some minutes in the paint; you’ll know he’s in when an announcer mentions a Luke Harangody look-a-like.

Keys to the Game

Disrupt/ Get Physical. The Notre Dame offense is predicated on crisp passing and good timing. As in the other Big East games, the defense has to be quick and smart, funneling the Notre Dame players into positions they don’t want to be in – positions from where they are not ready to shoot. Turnovers would be nice to see; but the Irish are good ballhandlers, so that is not expected.

Defend the Perimeter. The Irish shooting from outside is steady and effective. While their shooting percentage from beyond the arc is a touch lower than last year’s final mark, they are obviously dangerous; Abromaitis has a quick trigger and good length, while Hansbrough will shoot both off the catch or the dribble.

Post Activity. St. John’s has done most of their scoring in the paint, but Notre Dame is such a high-scoring team that even if the Johnnies can slow them down, they will have to find points from somewhere. Interior scoring from Burrell and Brownlee will be key to keeping the team in the game.

Offensive Rebounding. The Red Storm need to find some extended possessions in this game for more scoring opportunities. (forcing turnovers also works.)

Transition Points. St. John’s has done a great job getting out in transition to score. Not all of the Notre Dame defenders are as fleet of foot as the Red Storm players, and this has to be used to the Johnnies’ advantage.

Prediction: Too much shooting for the Red Storm. 71-63, Fighting Irish