It was free throw shooting that reared its head this afternoon. Then it was that our better days are ahead and we’ve got to bounce back. Basketball families stay together during tough times. We’ll watch film and like we did after Louisville, we’ll get better.
– Steve Lavin, after 53-51 loss to Cincinnati
The hardest pills to swallow for the Red Storm are those games that got away. Mediocre opponents who came to Queens, expected to be on the wrong side of the win/loss column, and who messed around and squeaked out a win in Carnesecca. What goes wrong in pregame? Is it the less-fancy locker room on campus? Is it the smaller crowd? Do the players miss that Garden security?
Whatever it is, two losses in Queens could still derail the Red Storm’s plans to dance in March, despite the recent high-profile wins.
On Sunday, the Red Storm have a chance to get one of those back. The team travels to Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats. Cincinnati is 6-5, like the Red Storm and Connecticut, stuck in the middle of the standings. Cincinnati came to Queens and played a lackluster game, but St. John’s performance at the free throw line (12 of 26), an inability to get stops when they needed to, and difficulty keeping the bigger Bearcats off the boards contributed to a loss that looked difficult to rebound from.
St. John’s has done nicely, bouncing back with wins over Duke and Connecticut. Both of those teams were blown away like driftwood in a typhoon. Both teams play a more aggressive, extended defense. Cincinnati’s defense is a little more like UCLAs in that it sits back for stretches and puts opponents in positions where they need to shot over packed-in height, and St. John’s post players have struggled against size.
Meanwhile, the Bearcats’ wins in the league have been less impressive; their best victory is over the Red Storm just 3 weeks ago. They have had the fortune of playing DePaul twice, thanks to the preseason Big East coaches’ poll placing them lower in the predicted standings.
From here on, their schedule gets much harder. The team has had some recent tumult, the coach’s seat is a little warm, and the Red Storm should have motivation to knock off the Bearcats. Right now, 7th place is also 11th place in the crowded middle of the league standings; Cincy and St. John’s are joined by Marquette, West Virginia, and Connecticut. Can the Red Storm start getting some separation and get closer to solidifying an NCAA Tourney berth?
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Cincinnati (19-5, 6-5 Big East)
Mick Cronin’s team has beaten Seton Hall, Rutgers, South Florida, and DePaul by healthy margins. Well, except DePaul, where the Bearcats were a possession from having the game go to overtime… and managed to throw the ball out of bounds to give the Blue Demons a chance. The Bearcats are an often poor decision-making team.
Even worse for them is that Yancy Gates was suspended for a game for his conduct (I’d heard it involved him yelling at an assistant coach. After the Bearcats got brutalized at Pittsburgh, Yancy found his suspension lifted… because the Bearcats, mediocre with him, absolutely suck without him. More on that from the Bearcats Blog.
Ah, it’s great to see coaches trying hard to protect their jobs, even when their players’ attitudes are substandard. Sets a great precedent.
As for the Bearcats as a whole, they operate around Yancy Gates, who often finds himself drifting from the basket to take long jump shots. They miss shots like few others in conference, but mitigate that by not turning the ball over. They also force a lot of turnovers. The threats on the wing include Sean Kilpatrick and Dion Dixon, who combined to score 1 point in the previous meeting; the team will get more form them this time around. Cashmere Wright handles the point; his 8 turnovers hurt the Bearcats, but they were still able to overcome his mistakes. Expect him to be more under control in this game.
Justin Jackson and Larry Davis helped pace the Bearcats last time around; Jackson was relentless inside like no other Bearcat forward is, and Davis’ jump shot was working. jackson’s defensive/ rebounding efforts in the post were aided by Antony “Biggie” McClain, who is 7 feet tall.
For more on the Bearcats’ players, see the earlier preview.
The issue for the Red Storm in the previous game – besides missing those free throws – is that they found it hard to get scoring going in the paint. Justin Brownlee went 1 for 7, and the team as a whole went 12-34 inside the arc (35%), struggling against the Bearcats’ defense both in the halfcourt and in transition. The Bearcats’ length was a problem. Can the Red Storm find a way to score against them? Can they get transition points?
Keys to the Game
Get to the Free Throw Line Again. The free throw attempts should have been the difference in the first matchup. The Johnnies were able to draw contact on the perimeter, and they need to be that active on offense again.
Force More Turnovers/ Transition Points. St. John’s needs a better scoring performance on the road – that will come from more transition points off of turnovers. The Bearcats have been great at holding on to the ball on the season, but had 17 turnovers against St. John’s. More pressure and more confusion would really help the Johnnies pull out the road win.
Defend the Paint. The Bearcats will happily take contested jump shots instead of working Yancy Gates over and over again. St. John’s has to keep Gates from getting deep position and convince Cincy that those long 2-point jumpers are a good idea.
Defend the Glass. Yancy Gates has 13 offensive rebounds in 10 games. 2 of those were against St. John’s. Obviously, Gates isn’t passionate about offensive rebounding; but he was more active on the glass than he was in other games. St. John’s has to bang him, Anthony McCliain, and Ibrahima Thomas harder and keep them from grabbing rebounds and extending their possessions.
Prediction: Revenge, 60-54 St. John’s.
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