The Other Surprise Team

The Cincinnati Bearcats, explosive out of the season’s gate with 15 straight wins against mostly mediocre competition, come to town for the first of two matchups against the Red Storm. Saturday’s matchup against the Bearcats is the first Big East game in Carnesecca Arena since the hard-fought overtime loss to Marquette. Usually, Carnesecca is a strong homecourt advantage, with the student section as rowdy as they can be in the small gym. The Red Storm need that advantage this season.  The team needs to sweep their on-campus contests; all of the opponents that will come to Carnesecca are eminently beatable.

Of course, last year the Bearcats got to enjoy Madison Square Garden, because they had New York schoolboy star Lance Stephenson of Lincoln High in Brooklyn, who chose the Bearcats after a long, drawn-out decision process. That game was a dog. The two evenly-matched teams battled the whole game long to see who could miss the most shots.  In the end the Bearcats “prevailed”, going 0-12 from beyond the arc and enjoying 6 turnovers from Stephenson in his homecoming, a 52-50 loss that was won through heroic efforts by Dwight Hardy.

This year the Bearcats return with a lot more hope, a gaudy 16-3 record, and a ranking in the AP poll of 25 (but no ranking in the coaches’ poll). Cincy sports a better team dynamic than last year, and Mick Cronin’s job might just depend on that dynamic propelling them to the NCAAs. But in Big East play, they’re in the middle of the pack right along with the Red Storm. Can St. John’s homecourt power the Red Storm to a needed victory?

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Cincinnati Bearcats (16-3, 3-3 Big East)

The Bearcats have been successful this year by minimizing turnovers and forcing turnovers – kind of like how St. John’s has been successful. The similarities don’t end there; the Bearcats are very athletic and long, and aren’t always the most consistent scorers. The Bearctas have played DePaul, South Florida, and Seton hall already for their wins, and have lost to Villanova, Syracuse, and Notre Dame.

Who are the true Bearcats? Probably right where they are, somewhere in the middle. They have added pressure to their defense, taking advantage of their length and athleticism. On offense, they look to work inside out, though often settling for jumpshots.

Without ball hogs Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn, the team has turned its focus to guard Dion Dixon and big forward Yancy Gates. Gates is a low-post force with some ability to shoot away from the basket.  As always, he tends to drift from the hoop and take more difficult shots than he needs to; and his conditioning is always a concern. His size will make him a difficult foe for the Red Storm; he can block shots and grab rebounds, but Cincy fans will remark that he could be more dominant in the paint. Gates gets help from 6’11” Ibrahima Thomas, who enjoys his jump shot, but also can be a factor in rebounding the ball out of his area. Freshman Justin Jackson gets some minutes in the paint as well.

Dion Dixon is a 6’3″ slashing guard with a solid mid-range jumpshot, quick hands, and an ability to get to the hoop. He gets a lot of help from former White Plains star Sean Kilpatrick, who originally committed to St. John’s and then backed off a very short time later.  He redshirted last year and has become a sharpshooter for the Bearcats; don’t be surprised if he ends up in the starting lineup on Saturday. He hunts shots and can shoot from many spots on the floor; he has good balance and good size. Rashad Bishop and Darnell Wilks are long defenders who are effective in Cincinnati’s 2-1-2 pressure defense; they can be dangerous in transition. Larry Davis is a senior who sees time at guard.

Cashmere Wright is the point guard, playing effectively and dishing out passes. Jaquon Parker gets some time handling the ball as well.

Keys to the Game

Get Yancy Off the Block. Gates is very effective deep in the paint, and St. John’s has to defend him hard and early, keeping him from deep position, and making the easily-winded forward work for his points.

Score in the Paint. St. John’s has to get points in the paint, in transition (where the Bearcats can be sloppy), and at the free throw line.

Harass. Cincinnati can look good on offense, but they can also go into lulls when they are frustrated. They may not turn over the ball, but a good defensive effort could make the wings frustrated about an inability to get off good jump shots. The Bearcats can be dangerous when they get their shooters out on the wings and shoot uncontested jumpers. Forcing missed shots defeats the Bearcats’ defense as well. They can’t set up their press and they can’t get back to pack the paint with their length.

The Flow of the Basketball. The Red Storm have struggled with turnovers and to get the ball where they need it to go, and they need to improve, protect the ball, and get points.

Hit Jump Shots. Kennedy, Horne, and Dwight Hardy – assuming he plays – need to hit shots.  They’re going to need them with the Bearcats’ height.

Prediction: St. John’s pulls out a close one, 63-61