Pico Dulce

Digging Out

February 10, 2010 by Pico Dulce 1 Comment

Ambiance: Radiohead, Just (video link, pops up in a new window)

“Can’t get the stink off/ it’s been hangin’ ’round for days.”

justinburrellvs WVA — Justin Burrell shoots vs. West Virginia. Photo by Red Storm Sports

On Thursday evening, St. John’s will honor the 25th anniversary of the 1985 Final Four team at halftime of the Louisville game. It will be another stark contrast of the heights the program once reached to the struggles the program has experienced through much of the last 18 years, and to the struggles of the current Red Storm squad. Can St. John’s take a little inspiration and knock off the Louisville Cardinals at home?

Last Saturday, the Red Storm had a nice thing going, leading by double-digits over West Virginia in the Garden. The Mountaineers were sleepwalking, taking poor shots… and then they remembered to play basketball. Da’ Sean Butler got loose. And West Virginia scored 3 points less in a half than St. John’s scored in the whole game. While some will complain about the offensive issues, the truth is that St. John’s wasn’t much worse on offense in the second half than the first. But they were far, far worse on defense, especially against Butler, who went 7 for 7 from beyond the arc, powering the Mountaineer offense.

These are low-confidence days for the Red Storm. But at this point, what is there to lose (well, besides more games)? The team is probably out of any sort of NCAA Tournament picture, but they still have a winning record overall; some confident play can defeat their next set of unranked opponents. The team has to believe… and make shots.

The Cardinals are the first of three opponents St. John’s will face twice this season. Since the last contest (you can read the Johnny Jungle breakdown of the earlier game as well), St. John’s has returned Anthony Mason Jr. to full game action, has won 2 but lost 5 games, has heard “Fire Roberts” chants during games, and has struggled to maintain leads (but at least they are getting leads). Meanwhile, Louisville has gone 3-4, with 3 road losses. They have been allowing a large number of free throw attempts, high 3-point shooting efficiency, and a fair amount of second chances for opponents.

Unlike in some of the recent games, St. John’s has a chance in this one. But can they take advantage? There are players who are playing well (see the player notes below), and hopefully, they will see some more time this evening. The rotation as it is hasn’t been winning, perhaps it’s time to play some guys a little more and see what they can do.

Game Information

Tip Off: 7:00 PM, Thursday, February 10
Location: Madison Square Garden
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Bloomberg 1130/ WSJU

Team Reviews

Louisville (15-8, 6-4)

10 PG Edgar Sosa SR 6’2 175: 27.1 mpg* 13.6 ppg* 40.2 %3PT* 4.2 apg

34 G Jerry Smith SR 6’2 190: 23.6 mpg* 9.2ppg* 3.6 rpg* 2.1 apg* 1.4 spg

12 G Reginald Delk SR 6’5 200: 21.5 mpg* 6.8 ppg* 43.5 %3PT* 3.5 rpg

21 F Jared Swopshire SO 6’8 220: 25.1 mpg* 8.1 ppg* 6 rpg* 84.3%FT

15 F Samardo Samuels SO 6’9 260: 28.2 mpg* 15.7 ppg* 53 %FG* 7.5 rpg* 1.2 bpg

Bench

2 G Preston Knowles JR 6’1 190: 20 mpg* 8.2 ppg* 3.3 rpg* 2.8 apg* 1.1 spg

23 F Terrence Jennings SO 6’10 240: 13.3 mpg* 5.5 ppg* 64.9 %FG* 3.5 rpg* 1.2 bpg

14 G Kyle Kuric SO 6’4 190: 13.6 mpg* 3.3 ppg* 3.2 rpg

3 PG Peyton Siva FR 6’1 175: 11.5 mpg* 4.6 ppg* 46.2 %FG * 39.4% 3PT* 1.6 apg

Edgar Sosa Louisville — New Yorker Edgar Sosa, Louisville. Image by IonSMI

Terrence Jennings and Jared Swopshire have been splitting time at the starting position at forward with mainstay Samardo Samuels; Pitino’s system means that both see a lot of court time. Both rebound very well, but the slim Swopshire has an outside game to complement his inside game (and he has gone 33-37 from the free throw line in conference). Jennings has a lot more strength and bulk, and is an adept shot blocker. Samardo has been effective on the offensive glass, but still could be better on the defensive boards. He’s a force inside and could have had his way with St. John’s last time.

On the wings, Reginald Delk is a steady shooting hand who almost never gets to the free throw line, taking most of his shots as jumpers (the majority from beyond the 3-point arc). Preston Knowles is also unfamiliar with the free throw line, and his shooting has been sub-par; but his defense and basketball IQ are worth his court time. In the earlier game, he made strong defensive plays in the second half to increase the lead. Kyle Kuric and Mike Marra profile similarly to Knowles; Kuric has been physical at times and will get at some rebounds.

In his final game at home in the Garden, Edgar Sosa could be calm and patient… or show once more that he has a head filled with knuckles and ego. He has been very good on the floor, taking half his shots from beyond the arc and hitting 41% of them in conference. Sosa even passes a good amount. Senior Jerry Smith is as solid as always, playing smart defense and hitting some shots from outside. The last game saw him taking a number of foul shots as St. John’s was trying to extend the game; he made most of them. Peyton Siva, the freshman point guard, plays about 10 minutes per game. While he shoots well, his ability to run the team still needs development.

St. John’s (12-10, 2-8)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 3.9 ppg* 2.0 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.4 ppg* 3.0 rpg* 39% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 15.0 ppg* 6.6 rpg* 3.2 apg* 35% 3PT* 1.2 spg

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 5.9 ppg* 4.4 rpg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 7.0 ppg* 6.3 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 23.1 mpg* 11.0 ppg* 39% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 20.5 mpg* 7.4 ppg* 5.5 rpg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 10.0 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 1.9 rpg* 1.2 bpg* 68% FG

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 18.2 mpg* 6.2 ppg* 3.3 rpg* 51% FG

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 12.8 mpg* 2.0 ppg* 1.5 apg

11 G Omari Lawrence FR 6’4 215: 10.2 mpg* 2.7 ppg* 1.7 rpg

If you haven’t yet looked at the stats from St. John’s conference play so far, you should.

St. John’s has been poor on offense, and a good part of it is a slump by the offensive stars, DJ Kennedy and Dwight Hardy in conference play. Both are shooting under 40% from the field (Kennedy: 39.8%; Hardy 35.4%) and under 40% from beyond the arc (33% for Kennedy, 35% for Hardy). Meanwhile, Paris Horne has shot 40% from beyond the arc. Kennedy has also been less effective at getting to the line; if the team can free him up for some good drives, he can make more of an impact.

Up front, Justin Burrell has come alive with three double-figure scoring efforts in a row, powered mostly by a hot jump shot. He’s played 22 minutes (14 pts), 18 minutes (10 points), and 21 minutes (12 points); the team might just want to let him loose for 30+ and see what he can do. His rebounding has been better, though he had a goose egg against Rutgers sandwiched between a 7 board effort and an 8 rebound effort. Again: Justin’s been the hot hand, and can expect to see defenses looking out for him. Evans has been solid rebounding (especially offensively) and scoring, but still struggles with tall shot blockers. Anthony Mason Jr. has transformed himself into a post player, which is good – his 3-point shot is still missing. Justin Brownlee’s offensive rebounding has been notable. Dele Coker has seen just under 8 minutes a game. It seems as if his shot blocking skills are still there, and he’s scoring without turning over the basketball. Perhaps he will see more time against the Cardinals.

In the Big East season (10 games), the point guards have combined to score 21 points. They have handed out 33 assists, which isn’t bad, and have committed 28 turnovers, which isn’t that good. Their defense has been decent, but the team needs more scoring impact from them.

Keys to the Game

Handle the Press. Louisville, as always, will come with presses and traps. The Red Storm have to handle the press. In the previous game at Louisville, the Red Storm did decently against the press except for some short spurts… which helped create the Cardinals’ runs. In a game with ebbs and flows, the team needs to ebb less, since they don’t have the firepower to come back from a debilitating 10-2 or similar Louisville run.

Aggressive Play Gets To the Line. The Cardinals have given up their share of fouls. And the Red Storm can drive to the hoop better than they have been, especially with the holes that are usually there in the press. If the team can get to the line more, they will have a better chance of winning.

Defend the Paint. Whether it’s on post-ups by Samuels or if it’s getting back on defense like a team that cares, St. John’s cannot make any 2-point shot easy. Make the Cardinals earn it with their jump shooting. Easier said than done, of course; beating post players to their preferred spots, taking good shots within the offense to prevent run-outs, and racing back on D are all necessary to keep the Cardinals from easy looks.

Body Up Samuels + Swopshire. Both are excellent rebounders, especially on the offensive side. St. John’s has to locate them and keep a body on them when the shots go up on either end.

Get The Weapons Going. Hardy and Kennedy struggled mightily against West Virginia. And Justin Burrell got 3 shots in the second half of that game. These three – and Paris Horne – are the offensive weapons. If the team has a chance to win at home, they have to get to scoring and scoring efficiently.

Prediction: I predict a relatively close loss, Louisville 74, St. John’s 69.

Transplanted New Yorker and now Midwesterner Peter a/k/a Pico writes for the East Coast Bias and the Church of Bracketology and for Johnny Jungle, doing the Calm Before the Storm posts. Pico is also on Twitter, @ECoastBias.

Stopping the Slide

February 5, 2010 by Pico Dulce Leave a Comment

Ambiance: Soundgarden, Ugly Truth (pops up in new window)

“I painted my eyes, ugly isn’t I want to see.”

Kevin Jones West Virginia — Kevin Jones, West Virginia forward. photo by IconSMI

After a loss to Rutgers, there’s not a whole lot to say about St. John’s and possible postseason hopes. The team is struggling, the fans are calling for the coach to be fired (though I am sure they would take a resignation as well), and the team is not doing well.

Enter the West Virginia Mountaineers. At 18-3 and brimming with New York talent in the core of their roster, the Mountaineers have big time dreams – a deep run in the tourney, maintaining a top-10 ranking, and keeping their fans from throwing stuff in their unparalleled joy. Hopefully their New York fans are a little more, uh, civilized. The ‘Eers boast a win over Ohio State (where the home fans brought the class), but close losses to Syracuse and Notre Dame, and a whipping from Purdue. The jury’s out on whether they are actually elite. Combined with the team’s excitement over Turkish center Deniz Kilicli, it’s likely that St. John’s will see the team try and bludgeon the Red Storm into submission early and often

But St. John’s has a chance to turn things around at home if they get their heads on straight. Losing to Rutgers was heartbreaking, but the Garden – and the home fans – will get behind a winner. And getting blasted at home – like in last year’s Syracuse loss – will feel much worse than losing at Rutgers. A good showing, even, can help the team compete in the winnable games coming up in the schedule.

Will the Red Storm fold against the tough Mountaineers? Or will they show West Virginia how the Johnnies battle in the heart of Manhattan?

Game Information

Tip Off: 12:00 PM, Saturday, February 6
Location: Madison Square Garden
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Bloomberg 1130/ WSJU

Team Reviews

West Virginia (18-3, 7-2)

35 F Wellington Smith SR 6’7/245: 5.9 ppg* 3.5 rpg* 44.2 %3PT* 1 bpg

5 F Kevin Jones SO 6’8/250: 14.2 ppg* 7.6 rpg* 54.9 %FG* 45.1 %3PT

1 F Da’Sean Butler SR 6’7/230: 16.6 ppg* 6.2 rpg* 3.3 apg* 36.3 %3PT

25 G Darryl Bryant SO 6’2/200: 10.6 ppg* 3.5 apg* 36.5 %3PT

3 F Devin Ebanks SO 6’9/215: 11.1 ppg* 8.6 rpg* 2.6 apg* 1.1 spg

Bench

41 F John Flowers JR 6’7/215: 15.7 mpg* 3.5 ppg* 2.3 rpg* 1.7 fpg

21 G Joe Mazzulla JR 6’2/200: 12.8 mpg* 1.9 ppg* 2.1 apg

42 F Deniz Kilicli FR 6’9/260: 7 mpg* 9 pts* 1 reb

32 G Dalton Pepper FR 6’5/215: 9.8 mpg* 4.4 ppg* 36.2 %3PT

For a review of the Mountaineers, let’s check in with a pair of West Virginia bloggers. First, from We Must Ignite This Couch:

Darryl “Truck” Bryant is starting in the PG spot after being replaced mid-year in Bob Huggins’ all-forward lineup due to wildly inconsistent play. He’s been much better in the last month or so as a pure PG. He’s always been a very solid outside shooter, but his ventures into the paint are usually illustrated by his quixotic attempts to jump directly into the tallest person he can find in an effort to draw a foul.

But he’s been doing much better with turnovers and defense, and has seemingly worked his way out of Huggs’ doghouse.

Joe Mazzulla is the other PG on the WVU roster, and he’s been plagued by a debilitating shoulder injury that he suffered last year (causing him to redshirt and sit out the season) that doesn’t seem to be getting any better. He’s a ferocious perimeter defender and very good at handling the ball- he just can’t shoot. At all. For most of the year he’s been taking free throws with his off-hand, and only recently is his shoulder well enough to try them with his strong hand.

Best players are forwards Da’Sean Butler and Kevin Jones now, with Devin Ebanks possibly turning the corner sometime soon. Ebanks was supposedly an NBA lottery pick if he’d left school last year, but hasn’t looked like it at all for most games this season. He broke out towards the end of the year last season, so it could happen again.

Wellington Smith is a shot-blocking forward who usually draws the center assignment and has become an outstanding outside shooter for WVU, connecting on 44% of his 3-point attempts this season. He has defensive lapses at times, so his is prone to finding his way onto the bench in fits of Huggins’ rage.

I’ve already talked about the two primary guards, but Dalton Pepper is a sharpshooting freshman that comes off the bench to contribute an outside threat at times. Similarly, John Flowers is a 6’9” forward that enters the game whenever some physicality and shot-blocking is needed.

Casey Mitchell was the JuCo player of the year last year and was supposed to slide right into the starting lineup, but he’s been nothing short of a Section 8 this year- wildly inconsistent and looks completely lost at times. He hasn’t been playing much lately, thankfully.

As for Deniz Kilicli, before last night’s game (win over Pitt at home), I would’ve said that he would provide a solid contribution to the physicality of the Mountaineers inside, possibly providing an inside-scoring threat they seem to be missing.

Then he went 4-4 with 9 points and two beautiful left-handed baby hook shots in the paint, and I fell head-over-heels in love. (I got a text from another WVU fan that compared Kilicli to a woman made out of chicken wings and beer.)

Now, who knows what kind of impact he can have on the Mountaineers? He looked a little lost on defense, but he’s a straight Turkish Beast, and what was already an intimidating, physical lineup, just got that much thicker.

And from the Smoking Musket:

This team has Final Four potential, especially if the Deniz “The Instan-bull” Kilicli can be a big inside presence. I truly feel this team can go all the way.

Bob Huggins has taken the West Virginia program to the next level. The caliber of athletes he recruits and style of play he teaches makes us dangerous every year. I love that first and foremost he wants his players to be tough on the defensive end of the court. You can miss a good shot and stay in the game but if you miss an assignment on defense, your ass is on the bench.

That is also one of the things I like the least about Huggs. I sometimes feel that he is too tough on his players. Granted, it only takes a momentary lapse in judgment to cost you a game but benching a guy in the first minute of the first half is a bit extreme.

Players: Da’Sean Butler – He is our best player and will be 1st Team All Big East. Da is our go to guy and score from anywhere on the court. His silky smooth spin move can make anyone look silly

Devin Ebanks – Great defensive player and still developing his offensive game. He is a beast on the boards and has potential to be a lottery pick

Kevin Jones – Good for 14 points and 8 boards a game. Great mid-range jumper and has recently been stroking from 3 point land.

Not allowing second chance shots is huge for our team. I think that is the key for our team on defense.

St. John’s (12-7, 2-5)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9/188: 4.1 ppg* 2.1 rpg* 2.1 apg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8/255: 7.2 ppg* 6.6 rpg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3/191: 8.2 ppg* 38.2 %3PT* 3 rpg

1 G-F D.J. Kennedy JR 6’5/215: 15.5 ppg* 37 %3PT* 6.5 rpg* 3.1 apg* 1.3 spg

2 F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7/210: 5.4 ppg* 4.7 rpg* 1 spg

Bench

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6’2/187: 23.2 mpg* 11.5 ppg* 39.5 %3PT* 2.2 rpg

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6’7/232: 20.7 mpg* 7.3 ppg* 5.5 rpg

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8/235: 18 mpg* 5.9 ppg* 52.8 %FG* 3 rpg

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11/185: 12.7 mpg* 1.9 ppg* 1.5 apg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10/252: 10.2 mpg* 2.2 ppg* 65.5 %FG* 1.9 rpg

11 G-F Omari Lawrence FR 6’4/209: 10.2 mpg* 2.6 ppg* 1.7 rpg* 0.7 apg

See the Midyear stats report to see how the team has been doing (not good.)

Keys to the Game

Don’t Be Skeered. St. John’s has to play hard, play crazy, and remember that they can win any game. If Notre Dame can beat the Mountaineers, isn’t there hope? The ‘Eers can go cold (or not-smart)on offense, though their defense does not generally take plays off. St. John’s has to defend very well to have a chance.

Krush Groove. West Virginia has height and athleticism all over the roster. St. John’s has to box out, get the rebounds, get the loose balls.

Turnovers Mean Easy Shots. St. John’s has to find a way to force turnovers; the Mountaineers are good ballhandlers, but they are not great at ball protection.

Diversified Scoring. The Red Storm has to get scoring plays up and down the roster to win this game. There is no one player that the Mountaineers can’t stop; but if different scorers get hot… and stay on the floor…

Position Defense. If they get out of position, St. John’s will get dunked on, slapped around, run on, and thoroughly embarrassed. Huggins’ team is very sharp.

Prediction: 73-55, West Virginia.

BE Midpoint: Team + Player Stats

February 5, 2010 by Pico Dulce 4 Comments

The halfway point of the Big East season has not delivered on the promise the players and coaching staff had in the non-conference season, where the team ran out to a 9-2 record. There were warts then – an inability to close out weaker opponents, and inconsistent post and point guard play. It seemed that the Red Storm only turned it on when they had to.

At 12-9 overall, and 2-7 in Big East play, the chance for any kind of postseason – and a winning record – seem to have slipped away. The second half of the season has some home games against struggling teams, and road contests against improved South Florida and DePaul squads. The team might be able to pull out some wins, but right now, the numbers show a whole lot of struggle to score.

Below are tables on the Red Storm’s team performance and player-by player stats. Read, discuss on the message board, and comment on what the team needs to do to close out a once-promising season in a respectable manner.

Team Statistics

The tables below are taken from statsheet.com, and detail some basic performance numbers for the team in Big East play. The columns are St. John’s performance; St. John’s Big East Ranking; how St. John’s opponents have fared in the same statistic; and the rank of the opponents’ aggregate performance, where 16 means St. John’s is allowing more than other Big East programs and 1 means St. John’s is defending better than other programs. But since St. John’s plays a slower pace than 10 other Big East teams (see second table), I will draw conclusions from the tempo-free numbers – rate stats that show how well St. John’s is doing in a truer, more comparable manner.

[table id=107 /]

[table id=108 /]

The team has been scoring -6.1 less that their opponents, hasn’t shot the ball particularly well, and are at the bottom of the league in shooting free throws. From the second table, we can see the components that cause the problems – the team comes away with .94 points per offensive possession. The league average is 1.06 points per possession (anything over 1 is regarded as decent). St. John’s is holding teams to middle of the pack shooting and points per offensive trip, and a lot of that is based on excellent percentages in defending the three-point shot. Yes, I think thought that was a typo as well.

The downside to that is that teams are shooting pretty well inside the arc, and St. John’s is decidedly not. The Red Storm’s shooting from outside looks bad, but in a league with South Florida, Seton Hall, and DePaul, someone’s always around to make the Red Storm’s errant shooting look better (Seton Hall should jack up fewer shots outside shots, perhaps). The 2-point shots the team has allowed don’t just come in the halfcourt – some transition errors, dunks, and layups are also the culprit. Other teams are getting easy shots.

The Red Storm don’t get to the free throw line, which reduces the effect of their terrible free throw shooting. But other teams get to the line and convert well, though some of that is due to playing from behind and fouling. St. John’s has been okay at not turning over the ball, but they don’t force enough turnovers. And they have really gotten a lot of shots blocked – makes sense, since the playmakers are generally the wings, and the forwards are not that tall.

The Red Storm are rebounding decently on the defensive side, but aren’t getting enough second chance shots/ offensive rebounds. When they do, the shot blocking and inability to convert inside help drive down their 2-point shooting percentage. Despite the paltry contributions of the point guards, St. John’s assist rates are in the middle of the conference.

There’s a lot that has gone wrong with this team, mostly on offense. Even if the defense was near-perfect, this team would struggle to win games.

Player Statistics

To look at player statistics, I’ll add two tables. One has the basic per game statistics with games played, starts, shooting percentages, et cetera. Both of the following tables are sortable.

For following table:

PLAY: Games played * START: Games started * MPG: Minutes per game * PPG: Points per game * FG%: Field goal percentage * FT%: Free throw percentage * 3FG%:3-point field goal percentage* 2FG%:2-point field goal percentage* RPG: Rebounds per game *APG: Assists per game* TPG: Turnovers per game*SPG: Steals per game* BPG: Blocks per game* FPG: Fouls per game

[table id=113 /]

The second table of stats for St. John’s players focuses on per-40 numbers – even though with more time, player production generally tails off because of fatigue, better scouting, or a truer sense of ability in a larger statistical sample. And in some cases, players are more involved with more time. There is also the effective field goal percentage, which is field goal shooting with an extra 50% credit added for 3-point shots.

For following table:

Games: Games played * MPG: Minutes per game * Pts/40: How many points the player would score at current production over 40 minutes * Sht/40: Shots per 40 minutes* eFG%:Effective field goal percentage (extra weight given to three-pointers) * FTR: Free Throw Rate – how often a player shoots free throws compared to how often they shoot*FT/40: Free throws per 40 minutes*OR/40:Offensive rebounds/ 40 * DR/40: Defensive rebounds/ 40 * Ast/40: Assists per 40 minutes*TO/40: Turnovers per 40 minutes* Stl/40: Steals per 40 minutes * Blk/40: Blocks per 40 minutes* Fls/40: Fouls per 40 minutes

[table id=112 /]

In half a conference season, the Johnnies’ individual performances have been generally lackluster. The leader has been DJ Kennedy and his 14 points per game; though he has struggled with his shot in some games, getting to the free throw line has helped him generate points. Dwight Hardy has been the player who seems like he should get more playing time. Certainly, he can put up points at a nice clip, but some of that is because he takes a lot of shots when he’s on the floor. Recent struggles leave his efficiency on par with DJ Kennedy’s and Paris Horne’s; his 2-point shooting could improve.

It’s pretty obvious that Anthony Mason hasn’t found his jump shot yet. He’s shooting poorly from outside and getting points inside very close to the glass, playing more like a post player. Omari Lawrence has been intriguing, getting involved all over the stat sheet. It would help if his 3-point shots fell, or his free throws, or his 2-point shots. But he has some ability to generate plays, and if he reduces his turnovers, he might warrant a few more minutes.

Some nice games with his mid-range jump shot has given Justin Burrell solid shooting numbers. He might be coming back into his own, though his post moves have not been extremely effective and his rebounding is less effective than his fellow forwards. Brownlee has been solid on the offensive glass, but his scoring hasn’t been efficient – and he takes a lot of shots when he’s on the floor. Sean Evans has quietly been pulling down rebounds on both sides (for an average of 6.6 boards/ game in 21 minutes) and shooting 50%. Still, someone who plays at the glass that much should be a better finisher. Dele Coker hasn’t played much, so take any 40 minute extrapolations of his numbers with a grain of salt. The same goes for Rob Thomas.

The point guard situation speaks for itself. While Malik Boothe’s shooting has been poor, Malik Stith’s has been poorer. One hopes they gain some confidence and get some of those shots in the basket; at least they don’t take many of those shots. Malik Stith hasn’t hit a free throw in Big East play. And don’t be fooled by the shooting percentages; Boothe is 2 of 18 in conference play, while Stith is 3 of 19, not enough to say one is a better shooter than the other. Neither has generated many steals; Stith has slightly better assist numbers and turnover numbers.

Ok, go chat it up on the forum.

Groundhog Day

February 1, 2010 by Pico Dulce 1 Comment

Ambiance: Beck, Loser (video link, pops up in a new window)

Coach Norm Roberts:

We’ve done a better job of playing on the road this year in tough environments. The last few years we’ve been getting beat by 15 or 18 points. Now the games are much closer and we are closer to getting a victory. We just have to get over the hump. That means making big plays in the gut of the game.

NDiaye Rutgers — Hamady N'Diaye. By IconSMI

The second half of the Big East season is almost upon the St. John’s squad, and it cannot come fast enough. So many frustrating losses, so little consistency… the team is struggling to find its way. There have been close losses. But for the players and the fans, it’s not enough to be close; moral victories were acceptable half a decade ago. The Red Storm has to find a way to score enough to win against the decent teams (or play incredible defense) to start getting some wins and rise from the lower depths of the conference.

Fortunately, there are two reasons to hold out some hope. First, the remaining schedule can be seen as more forgiving. Highly ranked West Virginia and Syracuse are the toughest upcoming teams that the Red Storm will face. The rest of the contests will feature squads from the middle of the standings, with 5 of those games at home. The second is a Rutgers squad that can charitably be described as weak, even if they exploited Notre Dame’s aversion to defense for a win. The 1-8 Scarlet Knights have trouble scoring and holding on to the ball, have a coach who, everyone figures will be fired at the end of the season, and have struggled to stay near opponents on the scoreboard more than St. John’s has.

Can St. John’s reverse their recent low-scoring losing ways and pull out a win in Piscataway?

Game Information

Tip Off: 7:30 PM, Tuesday, February 2
Location: Louis Brown Athletic Center
TV: MSG
Radio: Bloomberg 1130

Team Reviews

Rutgers (10-11, 1-8)

10 PG James Beatty JR 6’2 195: 5.0 ppg* 3.0 apg* 37.7% 3PT

3 G Mike Rosario SO 6’3 190: 15.7 ppg* 4.3 rpg* 33.3% 3PT* 14.7 shots/g

11 F Dane Miller FR 6’6 210: 8.8 ppg* 5.7 ppg* 2.1 apg* 33.3% 3PT

24 F Jonathan Mitchell JR 6’7 225: 11.0 ppg* 5.2 rpg* 34.9% 3PT* 91.7%FT

5 C Hamady N’Diaye SR 6’11 235: 9.1 ppg* 6.4 rpg* 4.7 bpg

Bench

31 G Mike Coburn JR 6’0 185: 23.4 mpg* 7.2 ppg* 3.7 apg

23 G-F Patrick Jackson SO 6’6 210: 13.5 mpg* 3.1 ppg* 3.3 rpg

11 F-C Austin Johnson FR 6’8 230: 22.8 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 1.9 rpg

For the Rutgers scouting report, I asked to Rutgers bloggers for information. First, On the Banks of the Raritan:

They beat Notre Dame because they played good defense and limited their turnovers. If they can continue to limit their turnovers to 12 or less, they should find themselves in more games come the 10:00 mark in the second half. In their lopsided losses to teams like Villanova, Georgetown, and Marquette, first half turnovers killed them.

Against Notre Dame, RU committed just five turnovers. It also helps when our best player is hot. Mike Rosario scored 18 in the first half against the Irish and finished with a game high 24. In order to win against St. John’s they will also need another rebounding effort from our guards like we did against Notre Dame. James Beatty and Rosario combined for 16 on Saturday.

And on the player-by-player depth chart, Bleed Scarlet chips in:

C: Hamady N’Diaye, Brian Okam. N’Diaye has finally come into his own, and could be a weapon on any team. The knock on him was always that he was so raw. I thought Okam would be the project of all projects, and while he needs work, he’s an interesting shot blocker in his own right to keep an eye on.

PF: Jon Mitchell, Austin Johnson. Mitchell is a decent 3 who’s playing out of position. He’s a transfer from Florida who came back to the metro area for more playing time. Johnson’s just a freshman who’s being pressed into action early out of necessity.

SF: Dane Miller, Pat Jackson. Miller has everyone excited, because he’s like a J.R. Inman who actually cares. When he was a freshman, it looked like Inman was going to be huge, but he never improved under Hill. he was always so lethargic on the court though, and that’s not the case here. Jackson could/should be a decent reserve, but Hill’s never handled similar players well in the past, and has again overreacted by cutting his minutes too much.

SG: Mike Rosario. Rosario is essentially a streaky volume shooter. He could absolutely be the dangerous lead scorer on a tourney team, but he’s not nearly as good a shooter as Quincy Douby was. The combination of not having a true compliment like Echenique puts way too much on his shoulders, and the coaching staff has failed in trying to improve his shot selection and getting other players involved in the offense. It’s ugly, ugly basketball.

PG: James Beatty, Mike Coburn. Beatty’s the first real point that Hill has ever had. Can score a bit too, ala Jerome Coleman back in the day. Yet, Hill and staff continue to show favoritism towards Coburn, who’s really just an undersized 2. He’s an ok third guard though.

For more:

5 Questions with On the Banks of the Raritan

5 Questions with Bleed Scarlet

St. John’s (12-7, 2-5)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 4.1 ppg* 2.1 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.3 ppg* 3.1 rpg* 37.9% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 15.0 ppg* 6.4 rpg* 3.3 apg* 34.7% 3PT

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 20 mpg* 5.7 ppg* 4.3 rpg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 7.1 ppg* 6.5 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 23.2 mpg* 11.9 ppg* 41.3% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 21.2 mpg* 7.4 ppg* 5.6 rpg

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 18 mpg* 5.6 ppg* 3.2 rpg* 52.4% FG

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 12.5 mpg* 2.0 ppg* 1.4 apg

11 G Omari Lawrence FR 6’4 215: 10.6 mpg* 2.7 ppg* 1.8 rpg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 10.2 mpg* 2.2 ppg* 1.9 rpg* 1.3 bpg* 65.5% FG

Keys to the Game

Garden State Stealing. It’s impressive how a roster of players can all conspire to give the ball away. One can feel the unison in the Scarlet Knights; only Jonathan Mitchell and Mike Rosario take shots and turn the ball over less than 20% of the time (Hamady N’Diaye is not as active in the offensive sets). In Rosario’s case, it’s because when he touches the ball, he feels the need to take a shot. The Knights should be bumped, trapped, and harassed into giving up the ball, their lunch money, and anything else they’ve got.

The Garbagemen. Rutgers isn’t great on the defensive glass. St. John’s has to send the forwards in to clean up offensive misses and make second shots. And with a shotblocker like N’Diaye around, there will be loose balls for the taking.

Hands Up! Defend the Rutgers’ jump shooters. Simply playing to defensive principles should keep the Scarlet Knights inaccurate and shooting the ball after a quick and ineffective one-on-one move.

Offensive Execution. St. John’s will probably need a couple of solid performances from Dwight Hardy and DJ Kennedy (or Sean Evans/ Justin Burrell). But decent performances all around will also put this game away.

Keep Cool. The Red Storm has to make sure to defend without fouling, and to not turn the ball over. Rutgers may come out on fire, feeling it from the win over Notre Dame; but St. John’s has to weather their valiant attack and take a road win. Dane Miller and Mike Rosario will have nice stretches, but St. John’s has to run their sets, take smart shots, and not underestimate their opponent.

Prediction: St. John’s has a nice run in the second half and puts Rutgers away, 66-59.

Edge of the Pitt

January 27, 2010 by Pico Dulce 4 Comments

Ambiance: Spoon, the Underdog (live) (video link, pops up in a new window)

Junior Guard Malik Boothe – On shooting woes in the second half:

“We didn’t sense it coming, I think it just happened. They started hitting their shots and we started missing shots. They started beating us to loose balls, the ’50-50′ balls. For us to win games, we can’t let that happen.”

Pitt Gilbert Brown — Gilbert Brown, Pitt's athletic wing. By IconSMI

St. John’s is struggling to remain relevant in the Big East race. With a record of 2-5 and an RPI of 65 and falling (where #1 would be rising, of course), the Red Storm are going to need some big wins to make moves in the conference. The fans are frustrated, the team is frustrated, and going on the road to meet the #17 ranked Pittsburgh Panthers is not exactly the recipe for a turnaround.

St. John’s was hoping to surprise the league this year. Instead, Pittsburgh has been the surprise, dealing Syracuse (the other surprise) their first loss and defeating 3 other good Big east squads – and DePaul on their way to 5 wins. But the Panthers have lost to Georgetown at home and to Seton Hall in Newark.

They’re looking for a win – and they defend their home very well, winning 92% of their games in the Peterson Events Center. That record is built on great defense, not just home court mystique; and the Panthers are once again an excellent defensive team. They also have scorers on the perimeter, talent in the paint. The Panthers may be ahead of some people’s predictions, but they can play.

Junior star and Pittsburgh native DJ Kennedy gets to go home and ball in front of friends and family; can he and the Red Storm battle the Pitt crew for a win? Or will St. John’s fall farther from contention?

Game Information

Tip Off: 7:00 PM, Thursday, January 28
Location: Petersen Events Center
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Bloomberg 1130

Team Reviews

Pittsburgh (17-1, 6-0)

12 G Ashton Gibbs SR 6’2 190: 17.3 ppg* 2.2 apg* 2.8 rpg* 40.2% 3PT

22 G Brad Wanamaker JR 6’4 210: 12.6 ppg* 6.7 rpg* 4.2 apg* 1.2 spg

24 G Jermaine Dixon JR 6’3 200: 9.6 ppg* 2.5 rpg* 3.9 apg

35 F Nasir Robinson SR 6’10 250: 7.4 ppg* 6 rpg* 1.6 apg

52 C Gary McGhee JR 6’8 235: 6.8 ppg* 6.4 rpg* 1.6 bpg* 70.3% FG

Bench

1 G Travon Woodall SO 5’11 190: 21.7 mpg* 5.3 ppg* 2.5 rpg* 3.9 apg

5 G Gilbert Brown JR 6’6 210: 23 mpg* 9.8 ppg* 3 rpg

11 F-C Dante Taylor FR 6’9 240: 16 mpg* 5.1 ppg* 4.9 rpg* .8 bpg

3 PG Chase Adams SR 5’10 190: 14 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 1.3 apg* 38.1% 3PT

This year’s squad is a little shorter on name-talent but strong on fundamental defense, allowing few offensive rebounds, defending the three extremely well (allowing 29% shooting in Big East play), and not sending opponents to the line. On offense, they are decent. While not particularly proficient, they are hitting their free throws and getting to the line.

For more on Pitt, let’s turn to two Pitt bloggers, Eye of a Panther and Pitt Blather. I asked them a) whether Pittsburgh was actually as good as their record, and b) what the difference was between expectations and results:

Eye of a Panther:

This year, they lost four players who are either in the NBA or playing overseas, but the same style of play is there. The difference in between the expectations that most had set and the actual results of being a top 20 team is that the players really buy into what Coach Dixon sells. I posted earlier on a Louisville message board that Pitt is the type of team that will walk into your house, punch you in the mouth, eat your food and leave without apologizing for it. At their best, they’re a physical, tough team that wins with good defense and rebounding and scores enough points to win. When they stray from that formula as they’ve done in the past couple of games, they struggle.

Pitt Blather:

Are they as good as they started in the Big East? No. They had things come together well. Pardon the standard boiler-plate, but they are a young team and things fell into place unbelievably well. And like a young team, they stumbled and took a couple steps back in the last couple of games looking completely different — as teams change their strategy to Pitt.

This is the difference between knowing what they are supposed to do to adjust and being able to actually do it. Pitt fans saw this early in the season when they struggled whenever a team went zone defense on them. They looked lost and unable to deal. The adjustment to it took longer than expected, but they finally figured it out.

Now the team is seeing opposing teams switch to blanketing Gibbs and really extending on the perimeter to slow the guards when Pitt is on offense. This has stagnated Pitt’s offense as the team struggles with working the ball inside and executing what they know. On Pitt’s defense, you are seeing teams attack off the wings and drive more.

The players show their youth in being slower to adjust to this.

Pitt Ashton Gibbs — Ashton Gibbs. By IconSMI

And for a look at the players, I’ll let Eye of a Panther talk about the roster:

Big Men.

Gary McGhee and Dante Taylor are the men in the middle for Pitt. Both are capable of playing well, but both (as evidenced in the last game) can also struggle. Neither is particularly strong offensively, though both CAN rebound well when they want to.

After them, Pitt really has five guys they rely heavily on for productive minutes:

Guards.

The guards are Ashton Gibbs and Jermaine Dixon – Gibbs is the best player for the Panthers – and if left open, has the capability to score at will. Automatic from the line (set a school record with 40+ straight free throws) and a decent defender. Not strictly a jump shooter and can go to the basket if need be (though not at will). If not defended, capable of going off on teams at any given moment. Dixon is probably Pitt’s best defender, but his shot has seen a steady decline from last year. He was injured early on this year, but now 11 games in, he’s still shooting under 35% from the field and under 22% from three-point range. Decent scorer, but needs to master the difficult art of scoring more while taking fewer shots. As the only senior starter on the team, maybe as close to a leader as Pitt has.

Wings/ Forwards.

The forwards are Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown, and Nasir Robinson. Wanamaker is a very good all around player for Pitt – another great rebounder for a SG/SF (averaging nearly 7 per game at only 6’4″) and this year has become a reliable scorer. At his best when Gibbs draws defenders to him and has shown the ability to drive to the basket and hit clutch shots (see Louisville game). Brown is Pitt’s most athletic player and maybe the most versatile. Good defender, freakishly athletic, and reliable player. I used to call anyone who thought he could play in the NBA delusional. I’m still not sure he can, but it doesn’t seem so far fetched to me anymore if he has a strong year next year. Along with Wanamaker, I’d say he’s in the conversation for Pitt’s 2nd best player behind Gibbs.

Robinson is an average player statistics-wise, but someone Pitt needs to play well. He rebounds very well for his size and while he showed he can score (had 26 against Louisville), generally doesn’t get above double figures. Nice player who Pitt relies on for toughness and defends fairly well.

Weak Links.

I’d consider the weak links to be Pitt’s backup point guards. If Ashton Gibbs is ever injured or forced into foul trouble and Pitt has to rely on either Travon Woodall or Chase Adams to come off the bench to play significant minutes, they could be in trouble. Woodall, a redshirt freshman is not a strong player and prone to turnovers and playing out of control. And even though Adams is a senior transfer who was expected to contribute, has not shown the type of game expected and as such, has only been rewarded with ten total minutes in Big East play. These reasons combined with Gibbs’ strong play is the reason he has played no fewer than 35 minutes in each Big East game.

How did they lose to a team like Seton Hall? Where are they vulnerable? Pitt Blather speaks to that:

Disruptive guards. When Pitt lost to Indiana, one of the big factors was that Tom Crean runs a guard-heavy team. He doesn’t press, but he has the guards get right in there and poke and play tight defense. If your guards are big, or just as fast it isn’t a big deal. Pitt’s guards aren’t particularly big, and they definitely were not as fast.

Seton Hall does have good guards that can slap and play tight defense when so motivated. Harvey and Theodore did a great job of it. So, in most of the first half, Pitt was not prepared to get harassed and pushed. The guards struggled to move the ball and it led to players not moving as well without the ball as no passes were coming on the play.

If you want to have a good chance at beating Pitt, keep the guards from scoring. Play tight perimeter defense, so the 3s aren’t falling and Pitt can’t spread the floor as much to move the ball and get it inside.

(For more answers from both bloggers, check out the extended versions of the interview with Eye of a Panther and with Pitt Blather)

St. John’s (12-7, 2-5)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 4.3 ppg* 2.1 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.4 ppg* 3.1 rpg* 37.5% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 15.3 ppg* 6.3 rpg* 3.4 apg* 36.2% 3PT

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 10.7 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 2.1 rpg* 1.3 bpg* 65.5% FG

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 7.1 ppg* 6.6 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 22.9 mpg* 11.8 ppg* 41% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 22 mpg* 7.8 ppg* 5.9 rpg* 1 spg

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 18.4 mpg* 6 ppg* 3.8 rpg

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 17.8 mpg* 5 ppg* 2.9 rpg* 50% FG

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 12.8 mpg* 2.1 ppg* 1.5 apg

11 G Omari Lawrence FR 6’4 215: 10.5 mpg* 2.8 ppg* 1.9 rpg

I expect to see a bigger starting lineup to deal with Dante Taylor and Gary McGee; but we don’t know if Anthony Mason Jr. will start. The team will continue to play a large rotation of players in an effort to keep players fresh. Dwight Hardy is the surest scorer the team has; if the Red Storm is going to score points, he will have to play a great deal. He scored 19 against Villanova and connected on 5 3-pointers.

The game against Villanova saw Malik Boothe have some ballhandling and passing problems; he logged a rebound and a steal, 2 fouls, and no points. He’ll have to do better for St. John’s to play well against the Panthers. Against the shorter Wildcat lineup, Sean Evans scored 12; DJ Kennedy and Anthony Mason chipped in with 10 apiece, while Omari Lawrence had a very good floor game with 8 points, 2 rebounds, an assist, and a steal.

Keys to the Game

Keep the Intensity High. In earlier games, the Red Storm has managed to hang with the opponents higher in the standing for a half and then… lose their cool during a scoring drought. Or they lose their defensive assignments. Whichever way, the team has to play smart basketball for the whole game. Pittsburgh will adjust and run sharp sets for most of the game; the team is well-coached.

Stop Ashton (And Guard the Perimeter). Gibbs is the main scoring threat; he takes the largest share of the shots but he can be guarded. But it will be difficult. Jermaine Dixon can score a bit as well but has struggled since returning from injury. Guarding the perimeter will be key in bringing the Panthers to a level of scoring efficiency that would allow St. John’s to steal this game on the road.

Nullify Their Size on the Glass. Dante Taylor is a good athlete, and Gary McGhee works hard on the glass. St. John’s would do well to fight on the offensive glass. Winning those fights mean points from offensive rebounds and free throw attempts.

Scoring Performances. The Red Storm need players to step up and score outside and inside. Kennedy and Hardy will lead the way, but the team needs at least one more solid scoring performance to pull out a win from Burrell or Brownlee or Horne… someone else needs to step up.

Into the Muck. Pittsburgh has to be brought into the kind of sloppy game that St. John’s tends to play. It would be nice to say that St. John’s can win a shootout, but there’s no evidence for that. So St. John’s has to use their defense to confuse and cause turnovers. With some good scoring performances, St. John’s has a chance to win on the road.

Prediction: St. John’s puts up a good effort and loses late; free throws will be a factor. 67-60, Pittsburgh.

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