It was free throw shooting that reared its head this afternoon. Then it was that our better days are ahead and we’ve got to bounce back. Basketball families stay together during tough times. We’ll watch film and like we did after Louisville, we’ll get better.

– Steve Lavin, after 53-51 loss to Cincinnati

The hardest pills to swallow for the Red Storm are those games that got away. Mediocre opponents who came to Queens, expected to be on the wrong side of the win/loss column, and who messed around and squeaked out a win in Carnesecca. What goes wrong in pregame? Is it the less-fancy locker room on campus? Is it the smaller crowd? Do the players miss that Garden security?

Whatever it is, two losses in Queens could still derail the Red Storm’s plans to dance in March, despite the recent high-profile wins.

On Sunday, the Red Storm have a chance to get one of those back. The team travels to Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats. Cincinnati is 6-5, like the Red Storm and Connecticut, stuck in the middle of the standings. Cincinnati came to Queens and played a lackluster game, but St. John’s performance at the free throw line (12 of 26), an inability to get stops when they needed to, and difficulty keeping the bigger Bearcats off the boards contributed to a loss that looked difficult to rebound from.

St. John’s has done nicely, bouncing back with wins over Duke and Connecticut. Both of those teams were blown away like driftwood in a typhoon. Both teams play a more aggressive, extended defense.  Cincinnati’s defense is a little more like UCLAs in that it sits back for stretches and puts opponents in positions where they need to shot over packed-in height, and St. John’s post players have struggled against size.

Meanwhile, the Bearcats’ wins in the league have been less impressive; their best victory is over the Red Storm just 3 weeks ago. They have had the fortune of playing DePaul twice, thanks to the preseason Big East coaches’ poll placing them lower in the predicted standings.

From here on, their schedule gets much harder. The team has had some recent tumult, the coach’s seat is a little warm, and the Red Storm should have motivation to knock off the Bearcats. Right now, 7th place is also 11th place in the crowded middle of the league standings; Cincy and St. John’s are joined by Marquette, West Virginia, and Connecticut. Can the Red Storm start getting some separation and get closer to solidifying an NCAA Tourney berth?

[gigpress_related_shows]

Cincinnati (19-5, 6-5 Big East)

Mick Cronin’s team has beaten Seton Hall, Rutgers, South Florida, and DePaul by healthy margins.  Well, except DePaul, where the Bearcats were a possession from having the game go to overtime… and managed to throw the ball out of bounds to give the Blue Demons a chance. The Bearcats are an often poor decision-making team.

Even worse for them is that Yancy Gates was suspended for a game for his conduct (I’d heard it involved him yelling at an assistant coach. After the Bearcats got brutalized at Pittsburgh, Yancy found his suspension lifted… because the Bearcats, mediocre with him, absolutely suck without him. More on that from the Bearcats Blog.

Ah, it’s great to see coaches trying hard to protect their jobs, even when their players’ attitudes are substandard. Sets a great precedent.

As for the Bearcats as a whole, they operate around Yancy Gates, who often finds himself drifting from the basket to take long jump shots. They miss shots like few others in conference, but mitigate that by not turning the ball over. They also force a lot of turnovers. The threats on the wing include Sean Kilpatrick and Dion Dixon, who combined to score 1 point in the previous meeting; the team will get more form them this time around. Cashmere Wright handles the point; his 8 turnovers hurt the Bearcats, but they were still able to overcome his mistakes.  Expect him to be more under control in this game.

Justin Jackson and Larry Davis helped pace the Bearcats last time around; Jackson was relentless inside like no other Bearcat forward is, and Davis’ jump shot was working. jackson’s defensive/ rebounding efforts in the post were aided by Antony “Biggie” McClain, who is 7 feet tall.

For more on the Bearcats’ players, see the earlier preview.

The issue for the Red Storm in the previous game – besides missing those free throws – is that they found it hard to get scoring going in the paint. Justin Brownlee went 1 for 7, and the team as a whole went 12-34 inside the arc (35%), struggling against the Bearcats’ defense both in the halfcourt and in transition. The Bearcats’ length was a problem. Can the Red Storm find a way to score against them? Can they get transition points?

Keys to the Game

Get to the Free Throw Line Again. The free throw attempts should have been the difference in the first matchup. The  Johnnies were able to draw contact on the perimeter, and they need to be that active on offense again.

Force More Turnovers/ Transition Points. St. John’s needs a better scoring performance on the road – that will come from more transition points off of turnovers.  The Bearcats have been great at holding on to the ball on the season, but had 17 turnovers against St. John’s. More pressure and more confusion would really help the Johnnies pull out the road win.

Defend the Paint. The Bearcats will happily take contested jump shots instead of working Yancy Gates over and over again. St. John’s has to keep Gates from getting deep position and convince Cincy that those long 2-point jumpers are a good idea.

Defend the Glass. Yancy Gates has 13 offensive rebounds in 10 games. 2 of those were against St. John’s. Obviously, Gates isn’t passionate about offensive rebounding; but he was more active on the glass than he was in other games. St. John’s has to bang him, Anthony McCliain, and Ibrahima Thomas harder and keep them from grabbing rebounds and extending their possessions.

Prediction: Revenge, 60-54 St. John’s.

It was bad enough when touted Rice High School guard Kemba Walker was The One Who Got Away from the previous coaching staff.

It was worse when Walker became the fast-as-electricity guard who routinely exposed St. John’s defensive weaknesses.

But now, Kemba Walker is the Show for U Conn. He’s taken what should be a terrible Husky team and made it not only viable, but a top-10 squad nationally.

Kemba is a likely first-round NBA draft pick. Kemba has a shot at national Player of the Year. He is one of ten finalists for the Cousy Award. Kemba holds the Huskies together like maybe no other player on a major conference team does. Kemba keeps Jim Calhoun from crying in his sleep over losses and taking more leaves of absence. I think Kemba even keeps the snowfall manageable in Storrs, CT.

We all wanted to see the Huskies wither and die (or at least I did). Kemba Walker – once St. John’s Director of Basketball Operations Mo Hicks’ point guard at Rice – is a part of a stingy team defense that has Husky fans thinking big after being left for near-dead in the offseason. Despite looking like a one-man team, the Huskies are tough as ever, and will be hard to handle for the Red Storm.

But… St. John’s gets the Huskies in the Garden, which has been closer to a home-court advantage than it has been for years.

[gigpress_related_shows]

Connecticut (18-4, 6-4)

Despite that long Kemba-licious introduction, the team is a little more than Kemba now. Jim Calhoun has taught his young Husky charges the U Conn way. The point guards are solid at funneling the action inside towards a pair of big men and occasionally a tall wing, all of whom gleefully make the hoop impossible to reach. That height helps maintain some cornerstones of Calhoun basketball – shot blocking, little fouling, and low field goal percentage inside the arc, all done with man-to-man principles.

But Kemba Walker is an integral part of what the Huskies do. He’s developed a deadly jump shot off of screens, and will pull it in transition. He is still a little small and slight to convert regularly at the rim, but he will take that lane and draw a foul if you let him. Kemba takes a lot of shots, he’s still one of the quickest players in college basketball, will steal the ball from you, and his passing is very good. His backup, Shabazz Napier, is also good – not too mistake-prone, though he does over-penetrate at times, with a solid shot and quick and pesky defensive hands. (Early in the year, he got called for a LOT of carries with his dribble.)

Freshman Jeremy Lamb has really come on to play a major role for the Huskies, scoring in double digits in the past 7 games and taking 10+ shots in the past 6 games. He has arms that belong on someone much taller, and he uses them for evil in the passing lanes. Sophomore Jamal Coombs-McDaniel and Donnell Beverly catch some minutes as well.

On the wing, Roscoe Smith and Niels Giffey (apparently pronounced Giff-EYE) see minutes. Giffey is spoken of as a passer, Smith a defender, shot-blocker, and a shooter.

Up front, the Huskies once again sport a hefty front line. This year’s beef consists of Alex Oriakhi, who can dunk it and has a little jump shot for when Kemba draws two on penetration. Since he plays at U Conn, he blocks shots. He’s the team’s best defensive rebounder. Charles Okwandu is a senior who excels on the offensive glass, but doesn’t try to score much. Tyler Olander has seen less time in the last month; he is a decent offensive rebounder. St. John’s will have trouble with all of this Connecticut height.

Keys to the Game

Slow Kemba. Walker powers the team. He’s hard to defend, and teams that focus too much on him leave the younger players open for easy shots. Still, it’s important to make Kemba work for his points – don’t let him fly into the lane in transition, make sure his jumpers are off-balance and contested. Slow him down.

Offensive Put-Backs. The Huskies aren’t the greatest team at clearing their opponents’ misses. Those offensive rebound chances might be the best chances St. John’s has to get shots at the rim. Unlike some recent games, the Johnnies have to get those put back chances to fall.

Low Turnover Numbers. The Huskies are pesky on defense, especially with perimeter defenders Shabazz Napier, Kemba Walker, and Jeremy Lamb. St. John’s has to protect the ball against their pressure.

Score Inside. Justin Brownlee has to be more of a factor for St. John’s to win any games; he has to find points, as do the slashing guards. Jump shots will be defended, and the Red Storm aren’t great shooters to begin with.

High Energy Garden. St. John’s has had some solid games at Madison Square Garden, and that old Garden magic (or Rumble!) has to be there to rattle the baby Huskies. St. John’s has to bring that energy as well and defend their house.

Prediction: Who knows what to expect, besides a lot of Kemba and a lot of turnovers? But I think the Kemba show will be too much. Connecticut takes it late, 69-65.

I wonder how Steve Lavin feels right now. He’s a good fellow, an amiable chap, wouldn’t throw many coaches or situations under a bus. He respects his elders and where he came from. He has focused his energies since his ouster from the University of California, Los Angeles. And in his new coaching job, he’s corrected some weaknesses in his re-transition to coaching.

Tomorrow, we get to see where this all leads. Lavin gets to walk into his old workplace – Pauley Pavilion – and hopefully, put a real cathartic Hollywood whipping on them. This game should come with swelling violins and horns, bombast, flags, and a fist pump at the end. If there’s any game he should pull out all of his tricks to win, it’s this one.

The fans of the UCLA program program gave him seven years of hell. Many of the reporters write of him as if they’re trying to describe the devil to people who just can’t see evil. There is an arrogance, an extreme arrogance involved in the hatred of Steve Lavin. After seven years, people can’t just let it go? That’s not fair.

They call him “Coach Hair Product.” There’s a dedicated post on how much they hate Steve Lavin – after 7 years. (The people on the Scout message board are a little kinder.) They call him the Blagojevich of college hoops, they call him the Lizard of Westwood, and more.

I’d go so far as to say that the Bruins deserve to be taken over the Red Storm’s proverbial knee and spanked with a paddle. This is NOT just a game. This is retribution, and New York stands behind our newly transplanted Cali coach Steve Lavin. It’s gonna be wild tomorrow, that’s for sure. Will Lavin be too keyed up? Can the players deliver? The energy in Pauley Pavilion will be crazy – despite the 10AM Pacific time start. After years of character insults, Steve Lavin gets to face his accusers and show just how good he can be. Can the Red Storm win Lavin’s Southern California return?

[gigpress_related_shows]

UCLA (15-7, 7-3)

But this game will be played with scholarship athletes, not the coaches and the fans’ vitriol, so let’s look at the Bruins.

In a tie for second place in the Pac-10, the young UCLA Bruins are a work in progress. Over the course of the season, they have improved their interior defense and are now a tough-minded team, closer to the kinds of squads Ben Howland used to have at Pittsburgh. They run a little bit but are often more deliberate in their offense, especially with their big men Reeves Nelson and Joshua Smith on the floor.

Those two comprise a pretty good front line. Freshman Joshua Smith has worked himself into game shape, though still listed at over 300 pounds; he is, obviously, hard to move, but has some issues with conditioning. Otherwise, he has a nice touch, draws fouls and is an excellent offensive rebounder. Reeves Nelson is much like Justin Burrell’s best days – a lot of energy, a dogged rebounder on both ends, a dunking and foul-drawing machine. Supposedly his concentration wanes, but I haven’t seen much of that in the games I’ve seen. They are backed up by Brendan Lane, who could use more girth in the post, and Anthony Stover, who starts but only plays a few minutes per game.

And sometimes the Bruins play a small lineup with Tyler Honeycutt at one of the forward positions. Honeycutt is probably the most talented basketball player on the Bruins. Not the best athlete, though he’s up there; guard Malcolm Lee might be a better overall athlete. Honeycutt is a bit like Dwayne Polee – long, multi-talented, and in need of some protein shakes. Honeycutt can hit from outside, can drive to the basket, and is an excellent shot-blocker on the ball. He plays the most minutes of anyone on the roster.

At guard, the Bruins are still putting things together. Junior College point guard Lazeric “Zeke” Jones handles the point guard position capably, throwing in some three-pointers for good measure. Not the greatest athlete, but good enough to hang in the Pac 10. Malcolm Lee is the Bruins’ best defender, and he is long and impressive; he also converts his shots inside the arc. They are backed up by once-touted recruit Jerime Anderson – a solid athlete with a decent jump shot – and freshman Tyler Lamb who gets spot minutes.

Keys to the Game

Focus. The aura around the game will be zoo-like. The St. John’s players have to gather the best of their emotions and channel them to win for coach. The energy from last week’s Duke game would be helpful; but Ben Howland’s teams, like Jamie Dixon’s teams, require a high level of precision and cohesion to defeat. This is a big game, and St. John’s has played well in the bigger games they have had against teams that should be comparable. (It’s the littler ones that have been problematic.) The simple things need to be taken care of – no careless ballhandling. Protect the rim against the inconsistent-shooting Bruins. Play at a high level early in the game.

Win the Battle Up Front. That will be the key to the game. If Josh Smith and Reeves Nelson get Brownlee, Burrell, and Evans into foul trouble, it will be a long game. This is a matchup for Sean Evans to get major minutes in. Nelson and Smith are active rebounders as well, and the Johnnies have to minimize their damage.

Like a Mudslide. The Bruin team isn’t the best at ball protection – Tyler Honeycutt, in particular, has had some ballhandling struggles – and the Red Storm have to force them into mistakes, while minimizing their own.

Free Throws. St. John’s has to get to the line, since they are not good at converting shots from the field. And at the line… they should hit those shots. They’re free, after all.

Hardy. Dwight Hardy has to have a good game for the Red Storm to win – or at least a positive impact, by not turning the ball over, getting to the line, or hitting some clutch shots.

Prediction. Going bold. St. John’s wins, 72-66. UCLA fans get REALLY upset.