Runnin' With the Devils

Ambiance: Van Halen, “Runnin’ With the Devil” (video link, pops up in new window)

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St. John’s and Duke have been meeting for 11 consecutive years. St. John’s has won two of those games. In the Red Storm/ Blue Devils’ yearly series, there have been some hellacious pastings over the years, some seriously uncompetitive contests, and few signs that St. John’s is among the nation’s elite. In last year’s 76-69 loss, something changed… slightly.

For sure, the game was still a whipping. But despite the turnovers, the Red Storm put in a performance better than their usual game-to-game offensive output, and better than what Duke was allowing to ACC opponents. It’s a small bit of trivia, but perhaps there is something there, a statement that the Red Storm is improving from their 10-point first half in 2007 and the 30 point shellacking two years ago.

Maybe this is the year St. John’s takes a Duke team adjusting to play without Gerald Henderson and Greg Paulus and shocks the college basketball-watching country (or “America” as they say on your favorite reality-TV shows). Maybe this newly confident and deep Red Storm squad won’t take “L” for a result anymore. Just maybe.

The good to take from this: you can fight with Duke. They are thin at guard, so you know what you’re going to get on the perimeter – Scheyer, Nolan Smith, young Andre Dawkins. And while Singler can handle the ball, the team’s depth leans heavily inside. The Blue Devils allowed some pretty sharp shooting from the Badgers, who were not to be mistaken for a crisp perimeter-oriented team.

The Red Storm also played last night, and beat a Stony Brook team that had looked pretty capable. But last night, their wings had trouble getting off shots against the defense at Carnesecca. It was an ugly game, to be sure; and an offensively uneven performance. But St. John’s has shown both confidence and grit, with a 7 to 9 man rotation willing to play many different roles to win. The malleability of the team will serve them well against Duke, a team much bigger than the ones they have faced.

Then again, perhaps the Blue Devils should be adjusting to the Red Storm, ranked #3 in the RPI, as opposed to Duke’s #5. (Small sample sizes – a/k/a early season numbers’ rules – apply.)

Game Information

Tip Off: 3:00 PM, Saturday, December 5
Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Bloomberg 1130; WSJU – on the road!

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Team Reviews

Duke (6-1)

2 G Nolan Smith JR 6’2 185: 17.4 ppg* 4 rpg* 3.2 apg* 36.4% 3-pt

30 G Jon Scheyer SR 6’5 190: 15.9 ppg* 3.1 rpg* 5 apg* 1 spg* 36.8% 3-pt* 89.2% FT

42 F Lance Thomas SR 6’8 225: 5.9 ppg* 4.3 rpg

12 F Kyle Singler JR 6’8 230: 17.1 ppg* 6.3 rpg* 2.7 apg* 2 TO/g* 39.4% 3-pt

21 F-C Miles Plumlee SO 6’10 240: 8.6 ppg* 7.9 rpg* 1.7 bpg* 1.6 TO/g* 59.5% FG

Bench

20 G Andre Dawkins FR 6’4 190: 19.8 mpg* 11 ppg* 55.6% 3-pt

55 C Brian Zoubek SR 7’1 260: 15 mpg* 3.1 ppg* 2.2 rpg

Offensively, Duke is led by the three S’s, Scheyer, Singler, and Smith. In this article, the Duke Chronicle is looking to come up with a nickname for them, working with the Devil motif and the SSS as a hissing noise (before settling on the “Supermen,” which is both weak and a little too Nietzcshean).

Guard: Despite a lack of a nickname (what college trio has a nickname, anyway? Ease off the coffee, budding journalists), Jon Scheyer is one of the best players in college basketball right now and deserves respect. Against Wisconsin he deferred to Singler and Smith but still had a poor 2-7 performance. Last year against St. John’s, Scheyer shot 3 of 8 – not much better – but kept going to the line (especially as St. John’s was trying to extend the game). Smith is a guard with good size and solid overall ability; he is very eager to put up shots in the Blue Devils’ offense, trying to take on Gerald Henderson’s role with some success.

Wing: Kyle “Shampoo” Singler is a matchup problem. He’s tall, mobile enough to do his job defensively, and a scoring threat all over the floor. It will be interesting to see if DJ Kennedy is assigned to bother him, or if Burrell and Evans play him; Justin Brownlee’s defensive abilities on the perimeter have not been used. Perhaps we will see if he has some ability.

Forward: The Dukies are tall up front, with the young but effective Plumlee brothers, Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and Ryan Kelly up front. Miles’ brother Mason Plumlee has started playing creating a tower of power, along with Zoubek and bench player Ryan Kelly, that will be very hard to score over. That’s three McDonald’s All-Americans there, though they don’t score like one assumes an All-American would. Miles has been a very good defensive and offensive rebounder and shot blocker.

St. John’s (6-0)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 4.8 ppg* 2.3 apg* 2.7 rpg * 1.5 spg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 7.3 ppg* 3 rpg* 1 spg* 23.8% 3-pt, 37.5% FG

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 17.7 ppg* 4.5 rpg* 3 apg* 2.6 TO/g* 43.5% 3-pt* 56.4% FG

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 5.3 ppg* 3.7 rpg* 51% FG

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 8.8 ppg* 7.1 rpg* 45.2% FG

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6’2 187: 22 mpg* 10.7 ppg* 1.3 apg* 40.7% 3-pt

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6’7 232: 19.5 mpg* 8.3 ppg* 4.8 rpg* 1 spg

DJ Kennedy has been the undisputed star of the team, scoring effectively in a variety of ways and building confidence in his offense. The second fiddle would be Sean Evans, with his ability to get fouled and pick up offensive boards. Guard Dwight Hardy has also scored a bit, but as a whole, the team has not had many crisp performances on offense since Siena. Kennedy will need some help against Duke.

Guard: A big issue is the lack of impact offense from Paris Horne and, to a lesser extent, Malik Boothe. Unlike the first part of last year, Boothe isn’t making plays going to the basket, and his assist rates are down. he is rebounding well and getting to the line, showing his toughness; but at this level of offensive performance, he needs to be taking many more foul shots to become the kind of viable threat that draws defenses (so he can pass to an open shooter). Horne’s says he is pressing; and he needs to be a factor against Duke. His straight-line drives to the hoop leave him vulnerable for aware defensive teams who draw offensive fouls, though, so Duke may not be the slumpbuster. Malik Stith has some scoring ability but has not made a large impact yet. Maybe he will have his Carolina family in the stands – he went to high school in Charlotte, though he grew up in Hempstead, LI.

Wing: DJ Kennedy will make plays, without question. But he needs his teammates to step up as well. Justin Brownlee posted a nice game, and has been a good forward off the bench. We haven’t seen many of his drives at the basket yet. Backup Quincy Roberts hasn’t logged many minutes. Freshman Omari Lawrence has logged some minutes in each game, and is proving to be a decent playmaker, even if his shooting has been off.

Forward: At forward, Burrell had a decent game last night, and looked more willing to attempt his jump shot. That bodes well for the future, but will he be able to get shots off against Lance Thomas and Zoubek? Evans has been a rock; his brand of whirling dervish post chaos could be a factor to thinning out that Duke front line. Dele Coker made a low post move last night that was effective and precise. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he could log some minutes. Rumor has it that Rob Thomas could return on Saturday. His strength and tenacity under the hoop can help ugly up the game for the Red Storm.

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Keys to the Game:

Give Yourselves a Chance. Value the basketball. Space correctly. Don’t turn the ball over as much. Concentrate on making the right pass. The team has the ability to be better with the ball than they showed against Stony Brook; Siena only got 13 turnovers out of the Red Storm, and many of this season’s turnovers come later in the game, as the team is comfortably resting on a scoring cushion.

You Ain’t Got No Alibi – Ugly. Whether the pace is slow or semi-fast, St. John’s has to make this a frenetic game for stretches. At their best this season, the Red Storm have caused confusion, stifled shots, and caused turnovers (while often making mistakes in ballhandling themselves). And ugly, gritty game helps St. John’s. I won’t say “favors”; Singler, Scheyer and Smith defeated U Conn in one of the least viewable games of the year. But that sloppy game put the onus on Duke’s defense… and U Conn’s inability to do anything but drive straight at the basket. And when there is a turnover by Duke, that possession needs to culminate in points scored. When there is a scrum at the glass, St. John’s has to come out with the basketball. When a Blue Devil drives to the hoop, he needs to be met with resistance.

The Rediscovered Jump Shot. Certainly, Burrell/ Evans/ Kennedy have the ability to draw a number of fouls on the Duke defenders and put up points at the free throw line. But to really hang with Duke, St. John’s will need to rediscover the jump shooting that started the season. Not exclusively; the team has to drive and get buckets off the turnover – but Hardy, Horne, and Kennedy need to open things up with accurate outside shooting, and the judicious use of the jump shot. Whatever they do – this team needs to open up the court spacing and put some points up.

Do Not Foul Stupidly. They don’t get to the line, so make them work for their foul shots. You know the dumb fouls – the forward who bumps Jon Scheyer on the perimeter, causing Scheyerface to erupt and floppy hands to fly. Or the tickytack touch foul as a guy streaks to the basket and you’re out of position.

Two Outta Three Ain’t Bad. Duke is highly reliant on Scheyer and Singler, with Nolan Smith happy to take up the slack. Two of them need to have a poor game for St. John’s to win this thing. If Lance Thomas scores 20 to win the game, and the St. John’s credibly defend him, then that will just be the way it is. I doubt that will happen.

Prediction: Duke 68, St. John’s 62 – The Red Storm team gives a good effort but on the road at Cameron, comes up short.

Transplanted New Yorker and now Midwesterner Peter a/k/a Pico writes for the East Coast Bias and the Church of Bracketology and for Johnny Jungle, doing the Calm Before the Storm posts.