2009-2010 – Page 3

Streaking Into Carnesecca

February 16, 2010 by Pico Dulce 5 Comments

Ambiance: Andrea True Connection, More, More More (video link, pops up in a new window)

Seton Hall vs. St. John’s is a rivalry that has gotten a little spicier in the recent years, with Bobby Gonzalez’ ego demanding a bigger stage when his Pirates are the road team (he wants the game to be played in Madison Square Garden) and with St. John’s refusal to acknowledge his complaints. The personalities of the coaches – one quiet and humble, the other demonstrative and brash – come into play, as does the competition over the New York area talent that doesn’t go to Villanova, Pittsburgh, or West Virginia.

So basically, this is a game of two mangy dogs scrapping over some bones, looking to mark some territory. So be it. Both teams come off of two wins. Each has beaten Notre Dame – the Hall beat them in Newark, St. John’s beat them in Indiana. St. John’s enjoyed a home win over the Louisville Cardinals, and Seton Hall hosted the DePaul Blue Demons for a win that should have been easier.

The Hall play so fast that one would think their offense is great, and they give up so many points that one would think their defense is abysmal. The defense is certainly bad; but the offense isn’t very good either. If you hold the possessions equal, they would be giving up about the same scoring margin as St. John’s does. Which explains why their record is about the same as St. John’s. But their shooting is terrible, even with Jeremy Hazell. They’re not particularly adept rebounders on either end. They do not draw fouls, but the foul the other team a fair amount. In fact, everything points to the Pirates being a terrible basketball team…

Except they do not cheat themselves by turning the ball over. Though it looks like their turnovers are high because they play a fast game, they squeeze more shots out of their pace than most other teams would. They don’t get in bad spots before putting up a shot, they don’t get the ball stolen (though Eugene Harvey has some bad moments in ball protection), and they get an okay number of steals in a game. If a team always has a chance to put up a shot, they have more of a chance to score points. It’s a delicate balance with Seton Hall, trying to win without winning the free throw shooting battle or the battle of the boards; but if they finish every possession with an attempt, they always stand a chance of surprising their opponents.

Both the Red Storm and the Pirates want to keep up the winning ways. Who will win the clash in Carnesecca? Which team will step out of the league basement?

Game Information

Tip Off: 7:30 PM, Wednesday, February 17
Location: Carnesecca Arena
TV: MSG+
Radio: Bloomberg 1130/ WSJU

Team Reviews

Seton Hall (14-9, 5-7)

20 PG Eugene Harvey SR 6’0 184: 8.1 ppg* 4.7 apg

2 G Keon Lawrence JR 6’2 177: 5.2 ppg* 2.1 apg* 2.6 rpg

12 G Jeremy Hazell JR 6’5 188: 22.4 ppg* 3.3 rpg* 1.9 spg* 35.7% 3PT

32 F Jeff Robinson JR 6’6 230: 10.1 ppg* 5.4 rpg* 52.6% FG

15 F Herb Pope SR 6’8 236: 11.4 ppg* 11 rpg* 1.9 bpg* 42.4% FT

Bench

10 PG Jordan Theodore SO 6’0 170: 24 mpg* 8 ppg* 3.3 apg* 1.9 spg

23 F Robert “Stix” Mitchell JR 6’6 180: 21.7 mpg* 8.8 ppg* 4.2 rpg

22 G Jamel Jackson JR 6’3 202: 12.5 mpg* 5.9 ppg* 39.3% 3PT

25 F Ferrakhon Hall FR 6’8 220: 11.286 mpg* 3.2 ppg* 2.1 rpg

Jeremy Hazell has been a real star in conference play. In fact, his game’s been so good that it highlights how mediocre the supporting cast has been. He can get to the basket a little and get his shot off seemingly anywhere after halfcourt. Of course, he has no conscience and could use to learn the word “judicious”, but he’s the team’s best player… even if he takes a Harangody-level percentage of his team’s shots without a hint of a pass attempt.

Eugene “Nunu” Harvey has improved his shooting, and despite being yanked in and out of the lineup, has been a decent point guard for the Hall. His turnovers are high on a team that is good about ball protection, though, so I can see why Gonzalez would take him out of games. Unfortunately, he splits time handling the ball not only with Jordan Theodore, who is a solid distributor but poor shooter, but also with Keon Lawrence. The Newark native and transfer from Missouri has been a terribly errant shooter, a mediocre distributor with no real sign of improvement… but he averages 22 minutes per game for defensive purposes.

Up front the Pirates feature Herb Pope, a player who passes the eye test, but not the numbers test. He’s a fantastic rebounder, but his scoring sense and ability leave a lot to be desired. His free throw shooting is incredibly bad at 39.5%. If Seton Hall played in closer games, teams would employ a Hack-a-Herb strategy in the waning minutes. Jeff Robinson has been crisp, strong on the offensive boards and efficient in his shooting.

With Jordan Theodore either starting or playing major bench minutes, let’s see who else comes off the sideline for the Pirates:

3 games ago against Pitt, Jamel Jackson played 24 minutes off the bench;
2 games ago Stix Mitchell played 18 minutes to lead bench players;
and in the last game against DePaul, Ferrakhon Hall logged 13 minutes off the bench.

In conclusion, Bobby Gonzalez spins a color wheel on the sidelines and when it lands on a player, he gets some run. He has been a bit mercurial with the rotation, and for a team that would seem to have such depth in the shooter Jamel Jackson and the size of John Garcia (is he injured?) and Melvyn Oliver (who has had conditioning problems), one would think a few more players would get minutes. But the Pirates only play 7 guys (sometimes 8 players) anything more than 8 minutes apiece.

St. John’s (14-10, 4-8)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 4.2 ppg* 2.2 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.1 ppg* 2.8 rpg* 35.9% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 14.9 ppg* 6.5 rpg* 3.3 apg* 34.4% 3PT* 1.3 spg

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 6.6 ppg* 4.7 rpg* 1.9 apg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 6.6 ppg* 5.9 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 22.9 mpg* 11.0 ppg* 40.3% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 19.9 mpg* 7.1 ppg* 5.3 rpg

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 18.7 mpg* 6.9 ppg* 3.6 rpg* 52% FG* 36.4% 3PT

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 12.3 mpg* 1.9 ppg* 1.4 apg

Coming off of a road win at Notre Dame, the Red Storm should brim with confidence. Burrell’s scoring 8 points per game in conference, shooting 52%, and still only playing 18 minutes per game. Will he be able to run with the go-go Seton Hall? St. John’s needs to slow the game down to get him the ball, and run with DJ Kennedy/ Dwight Hardy. Anthony Mason’s shot and athleticism seems to be inching its way back. And Malik Boothe has been hitting a few shots… the team’s weak spots seem to be improving over the course of the Big East season. It might just be weak opponents, but there are promising signs.

Keys to the Game

Be Good With the Ball. Giving the Pirates more chances to score is a bad thing; their defense is poor and can be scored on, but only if the Red Storm gets the chance to score. As well, A turnover gives the Hall a chance to score in transition, where they are dangerous.

If Hazell Has the Ball, It’s Probably Going Up. Defend Jeremy from the half court line. He’s not looking to pass the ball; if the ball is in his hands, he’s probably looking to set up and shoot it. Make him catch the ball out of shooting position; the whole team has to be cognizant of his presence.

Get Back on Defense. The Pirates will look to push the ball in transition and make the game into a fast-paced playground game. If St. John’s gets back and defends them into a poor shot, they can get going right back the other way.

Keep Up the Aggressive Offense. Work the post. Drive to the hoop. Don’t just take threes, but know when an open three is there and nail it. Seton Hall will send the other team to the line, but only if the other team is attacking their gaps.

Second Chances. St. John’s can’t lose control of the boards – they have to get second chances for themselves and keep the SHU forwards from generating tip ins and second chance balls.

Prediction: Can the Johnnies make it three in a row against a weak Pirates squad? St. John’s 74, Seton Hall 72.

Transplanted New Yorker and now Midwesterner Peter a/k/a Pico writes for the East Coast Bias and the Church of Bracketology and for Johnny Jungle, doing the Calm Before the Storm posts. Pico is also on Twitter, @ECoastBias.

Around the Bend

February 13, 2010 by Pico Dulce 2 Comments

Ambiance: The Jam, Start! (video link, pops up in a new window)

Malik Boothe:

“All week we’ve been trying to figure out how we’ve been getting in these lulls in the second half. We just all figured that we’ve got to just fight through it. And I think we did a great job of that, sticking together. Everybody made contributions with whatever minutes they had tonight. I think it was a good win collectively.”

What in the hell was that? St. John’s came out tenacious and aggressive, and Louisville folded like a house of… ah… Cards. A nice win for the Johnnies, and nice momentum going into their road game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. At 3-8 in the conference, there is still room for a string of wins and the building of confidence. If St. John’s can play as they did against Louisville with consistency, they may find themselves knocking off a few teams that they were not expected to.

Meanwhile, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have taken the “D” out of their name. A team that was already mediocre on defense has become entirely indifferent, to the point where they won’t be able to win in the Big East. It’s not an issue of defensive weaknesses… it’s like they just don’t defend, not at a competitive level. The offense is excellent, and pulls out wins, but the team prefers to allow opponents to shoot, and won’t body up and commit fouls.

But the main offensive weapon – player of the year candidate Luke Harangody – is out with a bone bruise. What will the Irish look like? Can they defend their home court against the offensively challenged Red Storm? Can the Red Storm take advantage of a soft defense and get some shots to fall? Or will St. John’s recurring road woes and jump shooting inconsistency doom the team?

Game Information

Tip Off: 7:30 PM, Sunday, February 14
Location: Joyce Center
TV: SNY
Radio: Bloomberg 1130

Team Reviews

Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6)

3 PG Tory Jackson SR 5’11 195: 8.7 ppg* 5.7 apg* 2.2 rpg* 1.1 spg*

23 G Ben Hansbrough JR 6’3 206: 11.7 ppg* 4.9 apg* 3.7 rpg* 45.3% 3PT

20 G Jonathan Peoples SO 6’3 215: 19.8 mpg* 4.3 ppg* 2.1 rpg* 40.9% 3PT

12 F Tyrone Nash SR 6’8 232: 7.7 ppg* 5.4 rpg* 55.9% FG

21 F Tim Abromaitis JR 6’8 235: 16.6 ppg* 3.8 rpg* 48.3% 3PT

44 F Luke Harangody SR 6’9 260:

Bench?

34 F Carleton Scott JR 6’7 217: 13.5 mpg* 3.1 ppg* 3.4 rpg

14 G Joey Brooks SO 6’5 215: 4.3 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 57.1% 3PT

Tim Abromaitis. By IconSMI — Tim Abromaitis. By Icon SMI

We don’t know quite what we will see out of the Fighting Irish. They are obviously known for Luke Harangody, and rightfully so – he is the alpha and omega on offense, handles the bulk of the defensive rebounding chores. Expect a perimeter-oriented attack that will focus on Tim Abromaitis, one of the best 3-point shooters in the Big East conference. He is tall and has a nice, quick shot, and he is capable of putting up shot attempts – he’s been the second fiddle to Harangody.

The rest of the players, however, have played complementary roles. One of the others will have to step up; based on the number of shots they take in their minutes, there isn’t a clear-cut player who will be the second scorer. Tory Jackson will lead the team with decent ballhandling and will look for his shot more; Ben Hansbrough may be looked for more coming off of screens, where he is better than off the dribble (as far as I have seen this year). Jonathan Peoples has a decent 3-point shooting percentage but doesn’t bring much else to the table. Tyrone Nash is a junior who will be active on the offensive glass and can score inside, even if he shoots 55% on free throws. Carleton Scott will see some time as well. For more, let’s turn to Matt from the Black and Green Irish Report:

They play great offense but lack defensive focus. This has been a common complaint since Mike Brey set foot on campus but this is the most ridiculous disparity I’ve seen. I thought that replacing Kyle McAlarney with the more athletic Ben Hansbrough this season would fix some of the issues that plagued us a year ago. Instead, Irish defenders commonly get beaten off the ball, are slow to close out on shooters, and get pushed around a bit on the glass.

Coach Brey doesn’t like to play guys he doesn’t trust. For whatever reason, that circle of trust has been especially small this season. Tory Jackson and Hansbrough will most likely play all 40 minutes in the backcourt. Brooks could get 6-8 minutes at shooting guard or small forward. Nash will get the fewest minutes of the starters, but most likely even he will earn 30-35. Expect a seven-man rotation.

None of the younger guys have gotten enough playing time to really display a lot of talent. Brooks might be the best defender on the team, but he won’t see any minutes until he convinces the coaching staff that he can score. Jack Cooley (6’9″, 244, 1.5 minutes/ game) has the most potential of our three freshman forwards, but [Mike] Broghammer (6’9, 243, 5.3 minutes/ game) is the most game-ready so far. Unfortunately, he has been hurt lately.

St. John’s (12-10, 2-8)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 3.9 ppg* 2.0 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.4 ppg* 3.0 rpg* 39% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 15.0 ppg* 6.6 rpg* 3.2 apg* 35% 3PT* 1.2 spg

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 5.9 ppg* 4.4 rpg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 7.0 ppg* 6.3 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 23.1 mpg* 11.0 ppg* 39% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 20.5 mpg* 7.4 ppg* 5.5 rpg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 10.0 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 1.9 rpg* 1.2 bpg* 68% FG

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 18.2 mpg* 6.2 ppg* 3.3 rpg* 51% FG

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 12.8 mpg* 2.0 ppg* 1.5 apg

11 G Omari Lawrence FR 6’4 215: 10.2 mpg* 2.7 ppg* 1.7 rpg

If you haven’t yet looked at the stats from St. John’s conference play so far, you should.

That was a great performance by the Red Storm in front of the 1985 team – or the members of the team who stayed to watch the game. It was a small crowd, a little over 5,000, which had to be disturbing for the school, since they are renting out the Garden for the game. Nonetheless, the team scored 74 points on 55 shots, a level of scoring efficiency they have only touched against Long Island University and Bryant University.

This may not happen again; but as said earlier in this preview, Notre Dame is defensively indifferent. That said, they allow a lot of their scoring from beyond the 3-point arc, trying to keep players closer to the basket. St. John’s lack of shooting could do them in, but the inexperience of whoever is playing defense in the post could work to St. John’s advantage, if they use moments when the perimeter defenders are out of position to drive to the basket. But the team has to nail the open looks.

Keys to the Game

Score. The Irish’s huge weakness, unfortunately, coincides with the Red Storm’s flaw – scoring the basketball, especially off the jump shot. It’s a matchup of the movable force (ND’s “defense”) vs. the stoppable object (St. John’s “offense”). The Red Storm have to find a way to score in the post. Burrell’s diversified game will be needed, as will DJ Kennedy’s creativity.

Guard the Perimeter. The Irish will score a little inside, but the most dangerous player is Abromaitis, who can shoot the lights out from distance. He and Hansbrough will likely be counter on to make up for Harangody’s absence; so St. John’s has to be vigilant on the perimeter. Mike Brey’s teams know how to get their points.

Get Back/ In Position On D. The desperate Fighting Irish will be looking to exploit all mismatches quickly, and they should be effective at doing so. The key is to get out of position less, to make fewer mistakes, to get to the defensive rebounds, and to not allow easy shots by the Notre Dame players. In a related note, St. John’s has to defend with their feet, not their hands; the Irish can also shoot well from the free throw line.

Don’t Underestimate. Though without their leader, the Fighting Irish have some experience fighting to score more than the other squad. They will come out motivated, trying to keep their record within striking distance of a winning conference record and possible NCAA Tournament play. They will be motivated; and St. John’s has to be motivated to find ways of scoring, and holding the Irish below their usual offensive efficiency.

Maintain Control/ Concentration. Though the Irish do not force many turnovers (they are one of the worst teams at forcing turnovers), they might come out with a defensive mindset. Or simply take advantage of sloppy Red Storm play, which does happen from time to time. St. John’s has to maintain their solid ballhandling and give themselves chances to score almost every time down. And even on the road, the Red Storm have to remember that they can win if they keep their confidence up, and their concentration high.

Prediction: A nail-biter, where the team is done in by the free throw shooting, Notre Dame 74, St. John’s 72. Then again, this is a tough game to predict.

Digging Out

February 10, 2010 by Pico Dulce 1 Comment

Ambiance: Radiohead, Just (video link, pops up in a new window)

“Can’t get the stink off/ it’s been hangin’ ’round for days.”

justinburrellvs WVA — Justin Burrell shoots vs. West Virginia. Photo by Red Storm Sports

On Thursday evening, St. John’s will honor the 25th anniversary of the 1985 Final Four team at halftime of the Louisville game. It will be another stark contrast of the heights the program once reached to the struggles the program has experienced through much of the last 18 years, and to the struggles of the current Red Storm squad. Can St. John’s take a little inspiration and knock off the Louisville Cardinals at home?

Last Saturday, the Red Storm had a nice thing going, leading by double-digits over West Virginia in the Garden. The Mountaineers were sleepwalking, taking poor shots… and then they remembered to play basketball. Da’ Sean Butler got loose. And West Virginia scored 3 points less in a half than St. John’s scored in the whole game. While some will complain about the offensive issues, the truth is that St. John’s wasn’t much worse on offense in the second half than the first. But they were far, far worse on defense, especially against Butler, who went 7 for 7 from beyond the arc, powering the Mountaineer offense.

These are low-confidence days for the Red Storm. But at this point, what is there to lose (well, besides more games)? The team is probably out of any sort of NCAA Tournament picture, but they still have a winning record overall; some confident play can defeat their next set of unranked opponents. The team has to believe… and make shots.

The Cardinals are the first of three opponents St. John’s will face twice this season. Since the last contest (you can read the Johnny Jungle breakdown of the earlier game as well), St. John’s has returned Anthony Mason Jr. to full game action, has won 2 but lost 5 games, has heard “Fire Roberts” chants during games, and has struggled to maintain leads (but at least they are getting leads). Meanwhile, Louisville has gone 3-4, with 3 road losses. They have been allowing a large number of free throw attempts, high 3-point shooting efficiency, and a fair amount of second chances for opponents.

Unlike in some of the recent games, St. John’s has a chance in this one. But can they take advantage? There are players who are playing well (see the player notes below), and hopefully, they will see some more time this evening. The rotation as it is hasn’t been winning, perhaps it’s time to play some guys a little more and see what they can do.

Game Information

Tip Off: 7:00 PM, Thursday, February 10
Location: Madison Square Garden
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Bloomberg 1130/ WSJU

Team Reviews

Louisville (15-8, 6-4)

10 PG Edgar Sosa SR 6’2 175: 27.1 mpg* 13.6 ppg* 40.2 %3PT* 4.2 apg

34 G Jerry Smith SR 6’2 190: 23.6 mpg* 9.2ppg* 3.6 rpg* 2.1 apg* 1.4 spg

12 G Reginald Delk SR 6’5 200: 21.5 mpg* 6.8 ppg* 43.5 %3PT* 3.5 rpg

21 F Jared Swopshire SO 6’8 220: 25.1 mpg* 8.1 ppg* 6 rpg* 84.3%FT

15 F Samardo Samuels SO 6’9 260: 28.2 mpg* 15.7 ppg* 53 %FG* 7.5 rpg* 1.2 bpg

Bench

2 G Preston Knowles JR 6’1 190: 20 mpg* 8.2 ppg* 3.3 rpg* 2.8 apg* 1.1 spg

23 F Terrence Jennings SO 6’10 240: 13.3 mpg* 5.5 ppg* 64.9 %FG* 3.5 rpg* 1.2 bpg

14 G Kyle Kuric SO 6’4 190: 13.6 mpg* 3.3 ppg* 3.2 rpg

3 PG Peyton Siva FR 6’1 175: 11.5 mpg* 4.6 ppg* 46.2 %FG * 39.4% 3PT* 1.6 apg

Edgar Sosa Louisville — New Yorker Edgar Sosa, Louisville. Image by IonSMI

Terrence Jennings and Jared Swopshire have been splitting time at the starting position at forward with mainstay Samardo Samuels; Pitino’s system means that both see a lot of court time. Both rebound very well, but the slim Swopshire has an outside game to complement his inside game (and he has gone 33-37 from the free throw line in conference). Jennings has a lot more strength and bulk, and is an adept shot blocker. Samardo has been effective on the offensive glass, but still could be better on the defensive boards. He’s a force inside and could have had his way with St. John’s last time.

On the wings, Reginald Delk is a steady shooting hand who almost never gets to the free throw line, taking most of his shots as jumpers (the majority from beyond the 3-point arc). Preston Knowles is also unfamiliar with the free throw line, and his shooting has been sub-par; but his defense and basketball IQ are worth his court time. In the earlier game, he made strong defensive plays in the second half to increase the lead. Kyle Kuric and Mike Marra profile similarly to Knowles; Kuric has been physical at times and will get at some rebounds.

In his final game at home in the Garden, Edgar Sosa could be calm and patient… or show once more that he has a head filled with knuckles and ego. He has been very good on the floor, taking half his shots from beyond the arc and hitting 41% of them in conference. Sosa even passes a good amount. Senior Jerry Smith is as solid as always, playing smart defense and hitting some shots from outside. The last game saw him taking a number of foul shots as St. John’s was trying to extend the game; he made most of them. Peyton Siva, the freshman point guard, plays about 10 minutes per game. While he shoots well, his ability to run the team still needs development.

St. John’s (12-10, 2-8)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 3.9 ppg* 2.0 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.4 ppg* 3.0 rpg* 39% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 15.0 ppg* 6.6 rpg* 3.2 apg* 35% 3PT* 1.2 spg

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 5.9 ppg* 4.4 rpg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 7.0 ppg* 6.3 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 23.1 mpg* 11.0 ppg* 39% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 20.5 mpg* 7.4 ppg* 5.5 rpg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 10.0 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 1.9 rpg* 1.2 bpg* 68% FG

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 18.2 mpg* 6.2 ppg* 3.3 rpg* 51% FG

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 12.8 mpg* 2.0 ppg* 1.5 apg

11 G Omari Lawrence FR 6’4 215: 10.2 mpg* 2.7 ppg* 1.7 rpg

If you haven’t yet looked at the stats from St. John’s conference play so far, you should.

St. John’s has been poor on offense, and a good part of it is a slump by the offensive stars, DJ Kennedy and Dwight Hardy in conference play. Both are shooting under 40% from the field (Kennedy: 39.8%; Hardy 35.4%) and under 40% from beyond the arc (33% for Kennedy, 35% for Hardy). Meanwhile, Paris Horne has shot 40% from beyond the arc. Kennedy has also been less effective at getting to the line; if the team can free him up for some good drives, he can make more of an impact.

Up front, Justin Burrell has come alive with three double-figure scoring efforts in a row, powered mostly by a hot jump shot. He’s played 22 minutes (14 pts), 18 minutes (10 points), and 21 minutes (12 points); the team might just want to let him loose for 30+ and see what he can do. His rebounding has been better, though he had a goose egg against Rutgers sandwiched between a 7 board effort and an 8 rebound effort. Again: Justin’s been the hot hand, and can expect to see defenses looking out for him. Evans has been solid rebounding (especially offensively) and scoring, but still struggles with tall shot blockers. Anthony Mason Jr. has transformed himself into a post player, which is good – his 3-point shot is still missing. Justin Brownlee’s offensive rebounding has been notable. Dele Coker has seen just under 8 minutes a game. It seems as if his shot blocking skills are still there, and he’s scoring without turning over the basketball. Perhaps he will see more time against the Cardinals.

In the Big East season (10 games), the point guards have combined to score 21 points. They have handed out 33 assists, which isn’t bad, and have committed 28 turnovers, which isn’t that good. Their defense has been decent, but the team needs more scoring impact from them.

Keys to the Game

Handle the Press. Louisville, as always, will come with presses and traps. The Red Storm have to handle the press. In the previous game at Louisville, the Red Storm did decently against the press except for some short spurts… which helped create the Cardinals’ runs. In a game with ebbs and flows, the team needs to ebb less, since they don’t have the firepower to come back from a debilitating 10-2 or similar Louisville run.

Aggressive Play Gets To the Line. The Cardinals have given up their share of fouls. And the Red Storm can drive to the hoop better than they have been, especially with the holes that are usually there in the press. If the team can get to the line more, they will have a better chance of winning.

Defend the Paint. Whether it’s on post-ups by Samuels or if it’s getting back on defense like a team that cares, St. John’s cannot make any 2-point shot easy. Make the Cardinals earn it with their jump shooting. Easier said than done, of course; beating post players to their preferred spots, taking good shots within the offense to prevent run-outs, and racing back on D are all necessary to keep the Cardinals from easy looks.

Body Up Samuels + Swopshire. Both are excellent rebounders, especially on the offensive side. St. John’s has to locate them and keep a body on them when the shots go up on either end.

Get The Weapons Going. Hardy and Kennedy struggled mightily against West Virginia. And Justin Burrell got 3 shots in the second half of that game. These three – and Paris Horne – are the offensive weapons. If the team has a chance to win at home, they have to get to scoring and scoring efficiently.

Prediction: I predict a relatively close loss, Louisville 74, St. John’s 69.

Stopping the Slide

February 5, 2010 by Pico Dulce Leave a Comment

Ambiance: Soundgarden, Ugly Truth (pops up in new window)

“I painted my eyes, ugly isn’t I want to see.”

Kevin Jones West Virginia — Kevin Jones, West Virginia forward. photo by IconSMI

After a loss to Rutgers, there’s not a whole lot to say about St. John’s and possible postseason hopes. The team is struggling, the fans are calling for the coach to be fired (though I am sure they would take a resignation as well), and the team is not doing well.

Enter the West Virginia Mountaineers. At 18-3 and brimming with New York talent in the core of their roster, the Mountaineers have big time dreams – a deep run in the tourney, maintaining a top-10 ranking, and keeping their fans from throwing stuff in their unparalleled joy. Hopefully their New York fans are a little more, uh, civilized. The ‘Eers boast a win over Ohio State (where the home fans brought the class), but close losses to Syracuse and Notre Dame, and a whipping from Purdue. The jury’s out on whether they are actually elite. Combined with the team’s excitement over Turkish center Deniz Kilicli, it’s likely that St. John’s will see the team try and bludgeon the Red Storm into submission early and often

But St. John’s has a chance to turn things around at home if they get their heads on straight. Losing to Rutgers was heartbreaking, but the Garden – and the home fans – will get behind a winner. And getting blasted at home – like in last year’s Syracuse loss – will feel much worse than losing at Rutgers. A good showing, even, can help the team compete in the winnable games coming up in the schedule.

Will the Red Storm fold against the tough Mountaineers? Or will they show West Virginia how the Johnnies battle in the heart of Manhattan?

Game Information

Tip Off: 12:00 PM, Saturday, February 6
Location: Madison Square Garden
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Bloomberg 1130/ WSJU

Team Reviews

West Virginia (18-3, 7-2)

35 F Wellington Smith SR 6’7/245: 5.9 ppg* 3.5 rpg* 44.2 %3PT* 1 bpg

5 F Kevin Jones SO 6’8/250: 14.2 ppg* 7.6 rpg* 54.9 %FG* 45.1 %3PT

1 F Da’Sean Butler SR 6’7/230: 16.6 ppg* 6.2 rpg* 3.3 apg* 36.3 %3PT

25 G Darryl Bryant SO 6’2/200: 10.6 ppg* 3.5 apg* 36.5 %3PT

3 F Devin Ebanks SO 6’9/215: 11.1 ppg* 8.6 rpg* 2.6 apg* 1.1 spg

Bench

41 F John Flowers JR 6’7/215: 15.7 mpg* 3.5 ppg* 2.3 rpg* 1.7 fpg

21 G Joe Mazzulla JR 6’2/200: 12.8 mpg* 1.9 ppg* 2.1 apg

42 F Deniz Kilicli FR 6’9/260: 7 mpg* 9 pts* 1 reb

32 G Dalton Pepper FR 6’5/215: 9.8 mpg* 4.4 ppg* 36.2 %3PT

For a review of the Mountaineers, let’s check in with a pair of West Virginia bloggers. First, from We Must Ignite This Couch:

Darryl “Truck” Bryant is starting in the PG spot after being replaced mid-year in Bob Huggins’ all-forward lineup due to wildly inconsistent play. He’s been much better in the last month or so as a pure PG. He’s always been a very solid outside shooter, but his ventures into the paint are usually illustrated by his quixotic attempts to jump directly into the tallest person he can find in an effort to draw a foul.

But he’s been doing much better with turnovers and defense, and has seemingly worked his way out of Huggs’ doghouse.

Joe Mazzulla is the other PG on the WVU roster, and he’s been plagued by a debilitating shoulder injury that he suffered last year (causing him to redshirt and sit out the season) that doesn’t seem to be getting any better. He’s a ferocious perimeter defender and very good at handling the ball- he just can’t shoot. At all. For most of the year he’s been taking free throws with his off-hand, and only recently is his shoulder well enough to try them with his strong hand.

Best players are forwards Da’Sean Butler and Kevin Jones now, with Devin Ebanks possibly turning the corner sometime soon. Ebanks was supposedly an NBA lottery pick if he’d left school last year, but hasn’t looked like it at all for most games this season. He broke out towards the end of the year last season, so it could happen again.

Wellington Smith is a shot-blocking forward who usually draws the center assignment and has become an outstanding outside shooter for WVU, connecting on 44% of his 3-point attempts this season. He has defensive lapses at times, so his is prone to finding his way onto the bench in fits of Huggins’ rage.

I’ve already talked about the two primary guards, but Dalton Pepper is a sharpshooting freshman that comes off the bench to contribute an outside threat at times. Similarly, John Flowers is a 6’9” forward that enters the game whenever some physicality and shot-blocking is needed.

Casey Mitchell was the JuCo player of the year last year and was supposed to slide right into the starting lineup, but he’s been nothing short of a Section 8 this year- wildly inconsistent and looks completely lost at times. He hasn’t been playing much lately, thankfully.

As for Deniz Kilicli, before last night’s game (win over Pitt at home), I would’ve said that he would provide a solid contribution to the physicality of the Mountaineers inside, possibly providing an inside-scoring threat they seem to be missing.

Then he went 4-4 with 9 points and two beautiful left-handed baby hook shots in the paint, and I fell head-over-heels in love. (I got a text from another WVU fan that compared Kilicli to a woman made out of chicken wings and beer.)

Now, who knows what kind of impact he can have on the Mountaineers? He looked a little lost on defense, but he’s a straight Turkish Beast, and what was already an intimidating, physical lineup, just got that much thicker.

And from the Smoking Musket:

This team has Final Four potential, especially if the Deniz “The Instan-bull” Kilicli can be a big inside presence. I truly feel this team can go all the way.

Bob Huggins has taken the West Virginia program to the next level. The caliber of athletes he recruits and style of play he teaches makes us dangerous every year. I love that first and foremost he wants his players to be tough on the defensive end of the court. You can miss a good shot and stay in the game but if you miss an assignment on defense, your ass is on the bench.

That is also one of the things I like the least about Huggs. I sometimes feel that he is too tough on his players. Granted, it only takes a momentary lapse in judgment to cost you a game but benching a guy in the first minute of the first half is a bit extreme.

Players: Da’Sean Butler – He is our best player and will be 1st Team All Big East. Da is our go to guy and score from anywhere on the court. His silky smooth spin move can make anyone look silly

Devin Ebanks – Great defensive player and still developing his offensive game. He is a beast on the boards and has potential to be a lottery pick

Kevin Jones – Good for 14 points and 8 boards a game. Great mid-range jumper and has recently been stroking from 3 point land.

Not allowing second chance shots is huge for our team. I think that is the key for our team on defense.

St. John’s (12-7, 2-5)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9/188: 4.1 ppg* 2.1 rpg* 2.1 apg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8/255: 7.2 ppg* 6.6 rpg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3/191: 8.2 ppg* 38.2 %3PT* 3 rpg

1 G-F D.J. Kennedy JR 6’5/215: 15.5 ppg* 37 %3PT* 6.5 rpg* 3.1 apg* 1.3 spg

2 F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7/210: 5.4 ppg* 4.7 rpg* 1 spg

Bench

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6’2/187: 23.2 mpg* 11.5 ppg* 39.5 %3PT* 2.2 rpg

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6’7/232: 20.7 mpg* 7.3 ppg* 5.5 rpg

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8/235: 18 mpg* 5.9 ppg* 52.8 %FG* 3 rpg

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11/185: 12.7 mpg* 1.9 ppg* 1.5 apg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10/252: 10.2 mpg* 2.2 ppg* 65.5 %FG* 1.9 rpg

11 G-F Omari Lawrence FR 6’4/209: 10.2 mpg* 2.6 ppg* 1.7 rpg* 0.7 apg

See the Midyear stats report to see how the team has been doing (not good.)

Keys to the Game

Don’t Be Skeered. St. John’s has to play hard, play crazy, and remember that they can win any game. If Notre Dame can beat the Mountaineers, isn’t there hope? The ‘Eers can go cold (or not-smart)on offense, though their defense does not generally take plays off. St. John’s has to defend very well to have a chance.

Krush Groove. West Virginia has height and athleticism all over the roster. St. John’s has to box out, get the rebounds, get the loose balls.

Turnovers Mean Easy Shots. St. John’s has to find a way to force turnovers; the Mountaineers are good ballhandlers, but they are not great at ball protection.

Diversified Scoring. The Red Storm has to get scoring plays up and down the roster to win this game. There is no one player that the Mountaineers can’t stop; but if different scorers get hot… and stay on the floor…

Position Defense. If they get out of position, St. John’s will get dunked on, slapped around, run on, and thoroughly embarrassed. Huggins’ team is very sharp.

Prediction: 73-55, West Virginia.

BE Midpoint: Team + Player Stats

February 5, 2010 by Pico Dulce 4 Comments

The halfway point of the Big East season has not delivered on the promise the players and coaching staff had in the non-conference season, where the team ran out to a 9-2 record. There were warts then – an inability to close out weaker opponents, and inconsistent post and point guard play. It seemed that the Red Storm only turned it on when they had to.

At 12-9 overall, and 2-7 in Big East play, the chance for any kind of postseason – and a winning record – seem to have slipped away. The second half of the season has some home games against struggling teams, and road contests against improved South Florida and DePaul squads. The team might be able to pull out some wins, but right now, the numbers show a whole lot of struggle to score.

Below are tables on the Red Storm’s team performance and player-by player stats. Read, discuss on the message board, and comment on what the team needs to do to close out a once-promising season in a respectable manner.

Team Statistics

The tables below are taken from statsheet.com, and detail some basic performance numbers for the team in Big East play. The columns are St. John’s performance; St. John’s Big East Ranking; how St. John’s opponents have fared in the same statistic; and the rank of the opponents’ aggregate performance, where 16 means St. John’s is allowing more than other Big East programs and 1 means St. John’s is defending better than other programs. But since St. John’s plays a slower pace than 10 other Big East teams (see second table), I will draw conclusions from the tempo-free numbers – rate stats that show how well St. John’s is doing in a truer, more comparable manner.

[table id=107 /]

[table id=108 /]

The team has been scoring -6.1 less that their opponents, hasn’t shot the ball particularly well, and are at the bottom of the league in shooting free throws. From the second table, we can see the components that cause the problems – the team comes away with .94 points per offensive possession. The league average is 1.06 points per possession (anything over 1 is regarded as decent). St. John’s is holding teams to middle of the pack shooting and points per offensive trip, and a lot of that is based on excellent percentages in defending the three-point shot. Yes, I think thought that was a typo as well.

The downside to that is that teams are shooting pretty well inside the arc, and St. John’s is decidedly not. The Red Storm’s shooting from outside looks bad, but in a league with South Florida, Seton Hall, and DePaul, someone’s always around to make the Red Storm’s errant shooting look better (Seton Hall should jack up fewer shots outside shots, perhaps). The 2-point shots the team has allowed don’t just come in the halfcourt – some transition errors, dunks, and layups are also the culprit. Other teams are getting easy shots.

The Red Storm don’t get to the free throw line, which reduces the effect of their terrible free throw shooting. But other teams get to the line and convert well, though some of that is due to playing from behind and fouling. St. John’s has been okay at not turning over the ball, but they don’t force enough turnovers. And they have really gotten a lot of shots blocked – makes sense, since the playmakers are generally the wings, and the forwards are not that tall.

The Red Storm are rebounding decently on the defensive side, but aren’t getting enough second chance shots/ offensive rebounds. When they do, the shot blocking and inability to convert inside help drive down their 2-point shooting percentage. Despite the paltry contributions of the point guards, St. John’s assist rates are in the middle of the conference.

There’s a lot that has gone wrong with this team, mostly on offense. Even if the defense was near-perfect, this team would struggle to win games.

Player Statistics

To look at player statistics, I’ll add two tables. One has the basic per game statistics with games played, starts, shooting percentages, et cetera. Both of the following tables are sortable.

For following table:

PLAY: Games played * START: Games started * MPG: Minutes per game * PPG: Points per game * FG%: Field goal percentage * FT%: Free throw percentage * 3FG%:3-point field goal percentage* 2FG%:2-point field goal percentage* RPG: Rebounds per game *APG: Assists per game* TPG: Turnovers per game*SPG: Steals per game* BPG: Blocks per game* FPG: Fouls per game

[table id=113 /]

The second table of stats for St. John’s players focuses on per-40 numbers – even though with more time, player production generally tails off because of fatigue, better scouting, or a truer sense of ability in a larger statistical sample. And in some cases, players are more involved with more time. There is also the effective field goal percentage, which is field goal shooting with an extra 50% credit added for 3-point shots.

For following table:

Games: Games played * MPG: Minutes per game * Pts/40: How many points the player would score at current production over 40 minutes * Sht/40: Shots per 40 minutes* eFG%:Effective field goal percentage (extra weight given to three-pointers) * FTR: Free Throw Rate – how often a player shoots free throws compared to how often they shoot*FT/40: Free throws per 40 minutes*OR/40:Offensive rebounds/ 40 * DR/40: Defensive rebounds/ 40 * Ast/40: Assists per 40 minutes*TO/40: Turnovers per 40 minutes* Stl/40: Steals per 40 minutes * Blk/40: Blocks per 40 minutes* Fls/40: Fouls per 40 minutes

[table id=112 /]

In half a conference season, the Johnnies’ individual performances have been generally lackluster. The leader has been DJ Kennedy and his 14 points per game; though he has struggled with his shot in some games, getting to the free throw line has helped him generate points. Dwight Hardy has been the player who seems like he should get more playing time. Certainly, he can put up points at a nice clip, but some of that is because he takes a lot of shots when he’s on the floor. Recent struggles leave his efficiency on par with DJ Kennedy’s and Paris Horne’s; his 2-point shooting could improve.

It’s pretty obvious that Anthony Mason hasn’t found his jump shot yet. He’s shooting poorly from outside and getting points inside very close to the glass, playing more like a post player. Omari Lawrence has been intriguing, getting involved all over the stat sheet. It would help if his 3-point shots fell, or his free throws, or his 2-point shots. But he has some ability to generate plays, and if he reduces his turnovers, he might warrant a few more minutes.

Some nice games with his mid-range jump shot has given Justin Burrell solid shooting numbers. He might be coming back into his own, though his post moves have not been extremely effective and his rebounding is less effective than his fellow forwards. Brownlee has been solid on the offensive glass, but his scoring hasn’t been efficient – and he takes a lot of shots when he’s on the floor. Sean Evans has quietly been pulling down rebounds on both sides (for an average of 6.6 boards/ game in 21 minutes) and shooting 50%. Still, someone who plays at the glass that much should be a better finisher. Dele Coker hasn’t played much, so take any 40 minute extrapolations of his numbers with a grain of salt. The same goes for Rob Thomas.

The point guard situation speaks for itself. While Malik Boothe’s shooting has been poor, Malik Stith’s has been poorer. One hopes they gain some confidence and get some of those shots in the basket; at least they don’t take many of those shots. Malik Stith hasn’t hit a free throw in Big East play. And don’t be fooled by the shooting percentages; Boothe is 2 of 18 in conference play, while Stith is 3 of 19, not enough to say one is a better shooter than the other. Neither has generated many steals; Stith has slightly better assist numbers and turnover numbers.

Ok, go chat it up on the forum.

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