The Cincinnati Bearcats, explosive out of the season’s gate with 15 straight wins against mostly mediocre competition, come to town for the first of two matchups against the Red Storm. Saturday’s matchup against the Bearcats is the first Big East game in Carnesecca Arena since the hard-fought overtime loss to Marquette. Usually, Carnesecca is a strong homecourt advantage, with the student section as rowdy as they can be in the small gym. The Red Storm need that advantage this season.  The team needs to sweep their on-campus contests; all of the opponents that will come to Carnesecca are eminently beatable.

Of course, last year the Bearcats got to enjoy Madison Square Garden, because they had New York schoolboy star Lance Stephenson of Lincoln High in Brooklyn, who chose the Bearcats after a long, drawn-out decision process. That game was a dog. The two evenly-matched teams battled the whole game long to see who could miss the most shots.  In the end the Bearcats “prevailed”, going 0-12 from beyond the arc and enjoying 6 turnovers from Stephenson in his homecoming, a 52-50 loss that was won through heroic efforts by Dwight Hardy.

This year the Bearcats return with a lot more hope, a gaudy 16-3 record, and a ranking in the AP poll of 25 (but no ranking in the coaches’ poll). Cincy sports a better team dynamic than last year, and Mick Cronin’s job might just depend on that dynamic propelling them to the NCAAs. But in Big East play, they’re in the middle of the pack right along with the Red Storm. Can St. John’s homecourt power the Red Storm to a needed victory?

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Cincinnati Bearcats (16-3, 3-3 Big East)

The Bearcats have been successful this year by minimizing turnovers and forcing turnovers – kind of like how St. John’s has been successful. The similarities don’t end there; the Bearcats are very athletic and long, and aren’t always the most consistent scorers. The Bearctas have played DePaul, South Florida, and Seton hall already for their wins, and have lost to Villanova, Syracuse, and Notre Dame.

Who are the true Bearcats? Probably right where they are, somewhere in the middle. They have added pressure to their defense, taking advantage of their length and athleticism. On offense, they look to work inside out, though often settling for jumpshots.

Without ball hogs Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn, the team has turned its focus to guard Dion Dixon and big forward Yancy Gates. Gates is a low-post force with some ability to shoot away from the basket.  As always, he tends to drift from the hoop and take more difficult shots than he needs to; and his conditioning is always a concern. His size will make him a difficult foe for the Red Storm; he can block shots and grab rebounds, but Cincy fans will remark that he could be more dominant in the paint. Gates gets help from 6’11” Ibrahima Thomas, who enjoys his jump shot, but also can be a factor in rebounding the ball out of his area. Freshman Justin Jackson gets some minutes in the paint as well.

Dion Dixon is a 6’3″ slashing guard with a solid mid-range jumpshot, quick hands, and an ability to get to the hoop. He gets a lot of help from former White Plains star Sean Kilpatrick, who originally committed to St. John’s and then backed off a very short time later.  He redshirted last year and has become a sharpshooter for the Bearcats; don’t be surprised if he ends up in the starting lineup on Saturday. He hunts shots and can shoot from many spots on the floor; he has good balance and good size. Rashad Bishop and Darnell Wilks are long defenders who are effective in Cincinnati’s 2-1-2 pressure defense; they can be dangerous in transition. Larry Davis is a senior who sees time at guard.

Cashmere Wright is the point guard, playing effectively and dishing out passes. Jaquon Parker gets some time handling the ball as well.

Keys to the Game

Get Yancy Off the Block. Gates is very effective deep in the paint, and St. John’s has to defend him hard and early, keeping him from deep position, and making the easily-winded forward work for his points.

Score in the Paint. St. John’s has to get points in the paint, in transition (where the Bearcats can be sloppy), and at the free throw line.

Harass. Cincinnati can look good on offense, but they can also go into lulls when they are frustrated. They may not turn over the ball, but a good defensive effort could make the wings frustrated about an inability to get off good jump shots. The Bearcats can be dangerous when they get their shooters out on the wings and shoot uncontested jumpers. Forcing missed shots defeats the Bearcats’ defense as well. They can’t set up their press and they can’t get back to pack the paint with their length.

The Flow of the Basketball. The Red Storm have struggled with turnovers and to get the ball where they need it to go, and they need to improve, protect the ball, and get points.

Hit Jump Shots. Kennedy, Horne, and Dwight Hardy – assuming he plays – need to hit shots.  They’re going to need them with the Bearcats’ height.

Prediction: St. John’s pulls out a close one, 63-61

Oh, the jokes we could make if the Louisville game was in Madison Square Garden. Or in Carnesecca. Noises when 15 seconds goes off the shot clock. Men and women with blonde wigs and/ or derby hats. Off color comments about Preston Knowles’ offseason. Calling Kyle Kuric “homecoming king“. Boxscores with the names of guys who didn’t make it into Louisville, Roburt Sallie and Justin Coleman…

This Louisville team simply asks to be heckled.

Alas, this game has the Red Storm playing at Louisville’s new KFC Yum! Center, the tastiest place in hoops. Their new “NBA style” arena is big and notable, a gorgeous jewel for the program, and its fans. And the team this year is pretty good too. Instead of falling off with the losses of Edgar Sosa and Samardo Samuels, the Cardinals have developed a fast-paced style that owes more to Pitino’s early pressing past with schools like Providence, before he had scads of talent at his disposal.

They are dangerous, having knocked off Butler and UNLV. They’re only ranked at 19, and part of that may be that they have 3 losses, and the best Big East team they’ve beaten is Marquette… and that required an incredible late-game comeback. Can St. John’s slow the quick-triggered Cardinals in Louisville? As John Wooden often advised “be quick, but don’t hurry”; you can be sure that the Johnnies will hear that in the pregame.

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Louisville (14-3, 3-1)

The Marquette game contained the best and worst of Louisville. Sometimes, they look like six or seven defenders on the court. Sometimes, every one of their players looks deadly, even the walk-on Elisha Justice. They have spurtability. And sometimes, they look like a haphazard team of turnover-prone athletes in search of basketball IQ.

The team is guided by point guard Peyton Siva, who is an excellent assist man, a sometimes-reluctant shooter (he’ll make the harder pass rather than shoot) and frequent visitor to the free throw line. His outside shot is a work in progress.  Siva is not actually backed up by anyone in the standard sense; a collection of guards and wings rack up time and will handle the ball when the sophomore rests.

Preston Knowles is by far the teams’ most dangerous player. Knowles can and will pull up to shoot from everywhere. It’s a great skill, but sometimes it leads him astray. He’s a decent passer, solid ballhandler, excellent steal man, and snags rebounds. Both he and Siva will commit a theft or two.

Alongside those two will be Kyle Kuric, the tall deep shooter with deadly range; Chris Smith, the Manhattan College transfer with deep range and slashing ability; and Elisha Justice, the walk on with grit and occasional deep shooting ability. Queens guard Russ Smith has seen a few minutes, usually in blowouts. Guard Mike Marra from Rhode Island is out with an injury.

Up front, the Cardinals have an injured Rakeem Buckles, who was good in the post for them. But out of that injury, Pitino found a rotation of freshman Gorgui Dieng and Stephan Van Treese. They’re an interesting pair; neither was expected to contribute big minutes this year. Both have been able to pick their spots, snag some rebounds, and make efficient plays in the paint. Both have a little athleticism to defend with, to boot.

Those two are backed by Terrence Jennings, who might be emerging in the last game or two as a solid post rebounder, and George Goode, another deep-bencher who has turned out to be quite a contributor with his bulk and a decent mid-range jump shot.

Keys to the Game

Our Chaos, Not Their Chaos. The Cardinals want to hurry opponents into their kind of crazy game. Even if they don’t force turnovers, they can make a team take early, quick shots, get out of their rhythm, and play an up and down game when they don’t want to go up and down. St. John’s has to play their game if they want to score – run when it works, don’t get caught in bad positions.

Protect Your Balls. The Cardinals also want your possessions. They want to harass opponents into traps at halfcourt and get easy buckets going the other way. Obviously, turnovers = bad.

Get Into the Teeth of Their Defense. St. John’s will find it hard to run the game at their pace; but the Cardinals perimeter defense is good, as well. St. John’s needs to get into their controlled halfcourt game and work the ball into the paint, grinding for a shot in the paint or a foul drawn.

Pick Up Their Shooters! I repeat: Preston Knowles will shoot from anywhere, at anytime. Kyle Kuric and scorch the nets as well. Look for them in transition. And know who their creators are; Knowles and Siva will draw defenders in, probe the defense off of a screen, and find an open player for a jumper. Of note: when the Cardinals aren’t hitting shots, they can’t set up the press effectively.

Don’t Let Them Pound the Glass. The Cardinals’ bigs try to get offensive boards with some regularity. They are bigger and quick; St. John’s has to box out well and get those defensive rebounds.

Prediction: Too much for the Johnnies, 75-65 Louisville.

We had a good stretch over the past five games, just playing more efficiently on the offensive end of the floor.
– Steve Lavin, pregame media conference

At 3-0 in the Big East, the Red Storm are in sole possession of first place.

Hands up if you predicted that.

Now all five of you, stop gloating. The Red Storm have been sharp early. The team is finding ways to win, playing solid defense against three Big East squads that entered conference play with Big Expectations.  But the Big East’s season is a long season. It’s unforgiving; as Steve Lavin likes to say, it is a marathon.

The next leg of the race takes the Red Storm through Notre Dame, where the Fighting Irish are formidable at home. In fact, the last time they lost at home was to St. John’s, last Valentine’s Day. Like the Red Storm, they start and play mostly seniors; they are (by minutes played) one of the oldest teams in the country – second oldest in the Big East to St. John’s.  Their players have been steeped in Mike Brey’s philosophy.

But the Red Storm have defeated the Fighting Irish in South Bend before. Does St. John’s have enough firepower to defeat the Fighting Irish in South Bend again?

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Notre Dame (13-2, 2-1)

The Fighting Irish are ranked either 14th or 15th, depending on what poll you choose to follow. Their senior-laden team has won with offense, as one expects from a Mike Brey team – good spacing, always ready to shoot, versatile in the halfcourt. But this year, they have added some defensive intensity, generally holding teams down on defense by playing back and walling off the paint. And they are good at it, even though they generally play only 6 players for major minutes.

But when the outside shots aren’t falling, it seems that the interior scoring isn’t enough to pace the Irish – at least not in the losses to Kentucky and Syracuse.  For St. John’s, stopping their outside shooting is key. Easier said than done.  While Tim Abromaitis is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, the high level of play is paced by Ben Hansbrough.

Pressed into action as point guard after the graduation of Tory Jackson, Hansbrough has been very good. He has handed out a decent number of assists. But his skills as a combo guard allow him to probe and attack, to shoot in transition, and to be a pest defender. He is also the team’s most accurate outside shooter. Backing him up – and sometimes allowing Hansbrough to play off the ball – is freshman Eric Atkins, who has been reluctant to shoot, but pretty effective in his apprenticeship role.

Carleton Scott, Tim Abromaitis, and Scott Martin are nearly interchangeable parts. All three are 6’7″ or 6″8″, can shoot well from the outside. Abromaitis is probably the purest shooter of the three and attempts the most shots. Scott can block shots in the paint, and is the best interior scorer of the starters. Both rebound the defensive end well and are willing to make a pass. Scott Martin is another shooter, but takes more shots in the paint.

Tyrone Nash patrols the paint, though he is the same size as the others. He draws fouls at a high rate and is the team’s best offensive rebounder. Jack Cooley gets some minutes in the paint; you’ll know he’s in when an announcer mentions a Luke Harangody look-a-like.

Keys to the Game

Disrupt/ Get Physical. The Notre Dame offense is predicated on crisp passing and good timing. As in the other Big East games, the defense has to be quick and smart, funneling the Notre Dame players into positions they don’t want to be in – positions from where they are not ready to shoot. Turnovers would be nice to see; but the Irish are good ballhandlers, so that is not expected.

Defend the Perimeter. The Irish shooting from outside is steady and effective. While their shooting percentage from beyond the arc is a touch lower than last year’s final mark, they are obviously dangerous; Abromaitis has a quick trigger and good length, while Hansbrough will shoot both off the catch or the dribble.

Post Activity. St. John’s has done most of their scoring in the paint, but Notre Dame is such a high-scoring team that even if the Johnnies can slow them down, they will have to find points from somewhere. Interior scoring from Burrell and Brownlee will be key to keeping the team in the game.

Offensive Rebounding. The Red Storm need to find some extended possessions in this game for more scoring opportunities. (forcing turnovers also works.)

Transition Points. St. John’s has done a great job getting out in transition to score. Not all of the Notre Dame defenders are as fleet of foot as the Red Storm players, and this has to be used to the Johnnies’ advantage.

Prediction: Too much shooting for the Red Storm. 71-63, Fighting Irish