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St. John’s Basketball By The Numbers: How Will the Red Storm Replace Their Losses?

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With Malik Stith as the only returning scholarship letterwinner next season for the Red Storm, it is obvious that there are holes to be filled. But, it isn’t entirely clear until one takes a look at the numbers to see just how much production St. John’s is losing. JohnnyJungle.com breaks out the calculator and crunches the numbers to answer the ultimate question, who can step up for the Red Storm in 2011-2012?

96% – Percentage of Point Production Lost to Graduation/Transfer

Harrison is a naturally gifted scorer who should fit seamlessly into the college game.
The Facts:

Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee, the two leading scorers for the Red Storm last season, are gone and graduated. In fact, the last season’s top 8 scorers for St. John’s have either graduated or transferred.

To his credit, Malik Stith averaged 10.7 points/40 minutes, which means he has the potential to be a solid contributor if given a starter’s minutes. Especially early in the season, including 13 points against St. Mary’s and 10 against Arizona State, he showed that he had some scoring ability to add to his typical distribution-oriented style.

Who Steps In?:

Fortunately for the Red Storm, scoring was an obvious point of emphasis for Steve Lavin on the recruiting trail. Maurice Harkless, Jakarr Sampson, Nurideen Lindsey, Phil Greene, and God’s Gift Achiuwa all averaged close to or above 20 points per game for their respective teams last season.

But, one name stands out as the premier, Division I-ready scorer: Texas native D’Angelo Harrison. This past season as a senior, Harrison averaged 31 points for Dulles HS (TX). He is a multifaceted scorer who can shoot from distance or take it to the basket with purpose. That, coupled with his unparalleled confidence, could make him a legitimate, high-volume scorer as a freshman in the Big East.

98% – Percentage of Total Rebounds Lost to Graduation/Transfer

The 6'9", 240 lb. Achiuwa will come to St. John's with a physical build already fit for the Big East.(Photo: njcaa.org)
The Facts:

One of the biggest problems St. John’s had in their loss to Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament was the lack of size and rebounding against the Bulldogs’ size and strength. DJ Kennedy led the team with 5.6 rebounds per game last season, but was more of a perimeter rebounder than a force in the paint. In addition, he was unable to play in the tournament due to injury.

Justin Burrell was the Red Storm’s best physical rebounder, averaging close to 5 in 20 minutes per game. He is a big-framed forward off the bench that the Red Storm will miss next season.

Who Steps In?:

Up until the Spring signing period, there were concerns about incoming big men for the Red Storm because, though they had size, players like Jakarr Sampson, Norvel Pelle, and (before his transfer) Dwight Meikle are lanky and perhaps not bulky enough to throw weight around in the paint.

Then, just after Easter, St. John’s signed God’s Gift Achiuwa, the 6’9’’ 240 lb. native of Nigeria. At Erie CC (NY) this past season, he averaged 11.7 rebounds per game and is a true force in the paint. He is similar in size to Burrell and could play the same role, depending on how Steve Lavin decides to use him. Indications are that he will either start at center, or come off the bench while Norvel Pelle starts.

94% – Percentage of Total Assists lost to Graduation/Transfer

Lindsey is a dynamic scorer and will need to learn to adapt to being a true point guard under Lavin's system.
The Facts:

Point guard Malik Boothe was the team’s leading assist man last season, with nearly 3 per game. Lavin’s offense wasn’t necessarily based on distribution-style basketball because Dwight Hardy was the both starting point guard and the main scoring option. With Hardy running the point, the Red Storm also lacked a consistent outside shooter off the ball, which would have opened up the inside-out game off of Hardy’s effective dribble penetration.

Many times, Steve Lavin had Stith and Boothe on the floor at the same time, which didn’t translate into scoring, but was good at eating clock and controlling the ball. Without Boothe, Stith will be the main ball control point guard and could benefit from the other skilled scorers on the floor.

Who Will Step In?:

Though he is naturally a combo guard, the job will most likely fall to projected starting point guard Nurideen Lindsey. He is a prolific scorer, averaging 22 points per game at Redlands CC (OK) last season, but will have to facilitate the offense as well next season.

His ability to dribble penetrate will help him enormously, drawing the defense in and kicking it out to shooters like Harrison and Harkless. All of the athleticism and size down low will also benefit the Philadelphia native, as he can feed it into the post to Pelle and Sampson and work an inside-out game. Ultimately, Lindsey will be the catalyst to this offense, just as Hardy was last season.

99% – Percentage of Total Blocks Lost to Graduation/Transfer

Pelle can use his length to cause problems for opponents around the basket.
The Facts:

The Red Storm lacked a true shotblocker last season and their interior defense struggled at times because of it. Justin Brownlee led the team with 28 blocks, but that still averages out to less than one per game. Dwayne Polee II showed some bright spots rolling to help on the weak-side and block shots, but he has left the program as well.

Dele Coker, at 6’10”, had potential to be a Mutombo-like shotblocker, but he saw limited minutes and struggled to stay out of foul trouble during those minutes.

Who Will Step In?:

St. John’s will feature incredible length and versatility next season in the frontcourt, with at least three players who are potential shotblockers at the Division I level. But, of those, 6’9”, lanky forward/center Norvel Pelle will shine. His reach and length will make it tough for there to be dribble penetration into the lane and he gets blocks from the weak side, as well.

Along with Pelle, Sampson and God’s Gift will get their share of blocked shots. Sampson plays with raw ferociousness and impressive athleticism that allows him to alter shots around the rim. God’s Gift will be the “traditional” shotblocker, the big-bodied, bulky Ben Wallace-type down low.

Scouting St. John’s: Are Justin Burrell and Justin Brownlee ready for the NBA?

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According to St. John’s Sports Information Director Mark Fratto, five graduated former members of the Red Storm currently have “representation” and are, assumedly, looking to play professional basketball. Here Johnny Jungle takes a look at how the first two may fit into the pro game in the first installment of a three-part series, Scouting St. John’s:

Justin Brownlee

Indications are that Brownlee will go undrafted, but he could be a good, versatile fit for an NBA team. (Photo: Icon/SMI Select)
Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv reported Thursday that Brownlee would work out for five NBA teams in the coming weeks: the Cleveland Cavaliers on June 8th, the Atlanta Hawks June 13th, the Charlotte Bobcats June 15th, the Miami Heat June 17th, and the Los Angeles Lakers June 19th. During the season, he was mentioned in a number of NBA Mock Drafts, but has since slipped off.

Brownlee averaged just over 12 points and 5 rebounds for the Red Storm last season and, more importantly for his professional aspirations, showed impressive versatility for his size.

To his credit, he passes very well for a forward and has showed that his fall-away jumper within 12-feet is solid. He was also the most consistent finisher at the rim for the Red Storm last season. He is more athletic than some scouts give him credit for, as we saw from his junior college days. The biggest thing he would bring to an NBA team would be his versatility offensively, where he could work in the post or on the perimeter.

At 6’7” tall and 215 pounds, he is still working on the polished handle that would make him a true NBA small forward, and is a bit undersized to be a true power forward. This would hurt him mostly on the defensive end, where he may not have the quickness to defend some small forwards, but not large enough to body-up larger forwards in the post. He most likely will not get drafted, but could work his way onto a team as a free agent. Also, playing European basketball for a few seasons could be an option.

Justin Burrell

Justin Burrell has an NBA-ready body and a solid set of fundamentals. Will a team take a chance on him? (Photo: Icon/SMI Select)
Earlier this month, Burrell announced via his Twitter page that he would be working out for 20 NBA teams at an event showcasing athletes signed to the agency that represents him, BDA Sports Management.

If there is one thing that is undeniable about Justin Burrell, it is that he has an NBA-ready body. Not only is he 6’8”, 244 pounds, but he has learned how to use his bulk to impact a game in the post.

Winning Big East Sixth Man of the Year this past season, Burrell reemerged in full force from the facial injury he suffered his sophomore season and showed the promise that he first showed as a freshman.

Burrell was the big-bodied enforcer off the bench who stood in contrast to the lanky starter Dwayne Polee II in 2010-2011, and he could play a similar role on an NBA team in the future. His rebounding instinct and toughness are building blocks that scouts will look for in the process of evaluating him.

The past three seasons, he was never truly dominant in the post, but showed flashes of strong play down low. Against Pitt at the Garden this year, as part of a 15 point, 8 rebound performance, he capitalized offensively every time Gary McGhee came out of the game. Steve Lavin began running the offense through Burrell and he outplayed Pitt big man Dante Taylor on multiple possessions.

The intangibles are in line for Burrell, too. He is well-spoken and handles himself with class in the media, which teams should take notice of. It looks like he, as well, will not be drafted, but could get some looks from teams as a free agent. If he does not play in the states, he could find a good fit overseas, where his size would be even more attractive to teams.

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Check back to JohnnyJungle.com, as we profile two more aspiring professionals from St. John’s Class of 2011, Dwight Hardy and Paris Horne.

Brian Bernardi of Xaverian Could Be New York’s Hidden Gem

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As his AAU team, the New York Gauchos, boarded a plane to Dallas for a Nike EYBL event in late April, rising senior guard Brian Bernardi was not with them. Instead, he was with his high school team, Xaverian (NY), preparing for Hoop Group’s Providence Jam Fest.

The 6’3” guard decided to pass up the lights of a national showcase to get more quality time with his high school team in a regional tournament. For Bernardi, it was not a matter of playing time, as he starts for both clubs, but more about building camaraderie with his Clipper teammates.

“To him, it was more important to travel with his high school team,” said Chris Alesi, an assistant coach at Xaverian, who has been coaching Bernardi since 2009. “I think that says a lot about the kid and what he stands for.”

The Staten Island native chose to play high school ball in the New York City Catholic League, regarded as one of the city’s best, and his coach sees an improvement in his game because of it.

Bernardi has become far more than a shooter during his time at Xaverian. (Photo: GothamHoops.com)
“He’s a very driven kid. Most kids growing up on Staten Island don’t make the leap,” said Alesi. “He always gets better. From year to year, from week to week, he’s gotten better. From where he took his game after his sophomore year to his junior year, he’s taken off.”

With a smooth and compact three-point stroke, an unrelenting motor and toughness, and a dribble-drive as powerful as a fullback bursting through the line, Bernardi has a mix of fundamentals and intangibles that are getting him noticed.

He was honored as an All-City Second Team player this past season at Xaverian in Brooklyn, as well as making the All-Tournament team at Boo Williams while playing for the Gauchos 16-Under team.

Right now, he has offers from Hofstra and Fordham, but higher-major programs like St. John’s, Providence, Georgetown, and Boston College are starting to take an interest in him.

Recently, a Big East assistant coach went as far as to say Bernardi “shoots like a pro” after watching him play.

“The conventional wisdom has been that, the higher level he goes, the more of a specialist he becomes, but I disagree with that,” Alesi said. “Some people think he could only be an Ivy League kid who sits out behind the three-point line and shoots, but he’s more than that.”

Alesi notes the progress Bernardi has made since coming to Xaverian as a freshman, when he was heralded as an outstanding shooter, but was limited otherwise. Since then, Bernardi has developed the other aspects of his game in anticipation for college-level basketball.

“I’ve been working on my ballhandling and being able to slash to the hoop and drive,” Bernardi said. “So, that lets me pump fake and drive to the hoop. I’m not just a shooter, I have the triple threat. [The defense] has to worry about everything.”

According to Alesi, interest from St. John’s is “lukewarm” at the moment, but assistant coaches Rico Hines and Tony Chiles have watched him work out and there has been “dialogue” between the two sides.

Bernardi attended a St. John’s elite camp under former coach Norm Roberts and a skills camp after Steve Lavin took over at the helm. He was also invited to the inaugural Midnight Madness at Carnesecca Arena last October.

“When St. John’s is good, there is nothing better and that is very attractive to him. St. John’s can offer him the chance to be part of something special,” said Alesi. “Also, there is the possibility of linking back up with Jevon Thomas.”

Thomas, a highly-ranked point guard who is committed to play for Coach Lavin from the Class of 2012, is a teammate of Bernardi’s with the New York Gauchos. Bernardi says he and Thomas are “good friends” and Alesi says the two have developed an efficient inside-out game with Thomas’ driving skills and Bernardi’s shooting.

Steve Lavin is trying to find a way to shuffle his scholarships around as the program moves forward, and perhaps Bernardi fits into the mix. With a rise in interest in the program, he will be competing top-tier talent for a scholarship with the Red Storm.

“I like that it’s close to home in New York and that they play in the Big East,” said Bernardi. “I think I would fit in by giving them an outside shooting threat to go with the athletic players that can attack the rim.”

He took a visit to Georgetown in the Fall, and is still drawing interest from head coach Ed Cooley, who recruited Bernardi at Fairfield, and is now at Providence.

“Right now, I’m not sure where I would like to go,” said Bernardi of where he is in his recruiting. “I’m going to see what schools I can get and try to figure what would be the best fit for me. I need to talk to my coaches and parents and see how they feel would be the best fit for me to go to.”

The key to his development appears to lie ahead, this upcoming July. If he can have a strong showing with his AAU team and at individual camps, he could shoot up some team’s boards and his recruitment could pick up.

He may not be done growing and needs to add muscle and bulk to be able to hang with the physicality of high-major basketball. And his coach has confidence that there are no limits on Bernardi’s development.

“He is a very high character kid. His work ethic is off the charts,” said Alesi. “He’ll practice with us on varsity, then go to a shooting academy where he puts up 1000 shots. Because of that, I don’t think you can define how high his ceiling is.”

The Road to St. John’s Basketball: Paris Horne Before the Red Storm

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Horne, originally from Philadelphia, played his high school ball at Middletown (DE), before spending a year alongside future Red Storm teammate Justin Burrell at Bridgton Academy in Maine.

As is documented during his time at Middletown, the 6’3″ guard’s incredible athleticism has been a part of his game, even before St. John’s.

During his four years with the Red Storm, he was three different, but equally important players.

The publicly soft-spoken Horne broke out during his sophomore season, leading the team in scoring with just over 14 points per game, to go along with 3 rebounds and 2 assists. He played in 34 minutes per game and it seemed the path was paved for Horne to be the star of the program.

As DJ Kennedy emerged the following season as the team’s main scoring option, Horne’s offensive numbers dipped, but his defensive presence did not. While still averaging 9 points and 3 rebounds per game, Horne established himself as the team’s best on-ball defender and the man responsible for guarding the opposition’s best player.

Horne is one of the many graduating seniors for the Red Storm and could test the European waters while working toward the NBA. (Photo: Icon/SMI Select)
These two player-types (the star, as a sophomore, and the defensive stopper, as a junior) came together to make a third type under Steve Lavin in his senior season and made Horne a multi-faceted guard in 2010-2011.

At times, Horne was the star he was his sophomore season, including a 15 point performance in the Red Storm’s big win over Duke in January, and other times he shined on defense, including a monster block against Davidson in the Holiday Festival to deny a basket at the end of the first half.

According to the school, Horne is one of five recently-graduated St. John’s seniors with “representation,” meaning he will most likely be looking to play professionally. As a defensive specialist, Horne could perhaps work his way onto an NBA roster in the future, but overseas ball may be his best option for now.

His athleticism will work in his favor as he moves forward in his career, and teams are always looking for players with such defensive integrity and tenacity. If he can channel the offensive productivity he had in his sophomore season with the Red Storm, Horne could find his niche and have a specialized and contributing role on a quality team.

Red Storm Watch: Is Steve Lavin Leading a Power Shift in the Big East?

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With the exception of Ed Cooley taking over for the fired Keno Davis at Providence, the whirlwind of the spring college coaching carousel missed the Big East in 2011.

That same invisible hand that was passed over with no effect this season shook the conference last season and has set the stage for a major power shift in the Big East.

Steve Lavin will be the head coach of one of the youngest teams in the nation in 2011-2012. (Photo: Icon/SMI Select)
The league is following the natural ebb and flow of teams dominating and rebuilding and, now, as the dust finally settles from the shakeout last season, the bigger picture is beginning to take shape.

From this dust, there are three distinct, relevant groups of coaches taking form in the Big East. First are the Legends, including Jim Calhoun at UConn and Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, who have been with their respective programs for long enough to cement their legacy as perennial powerhouses.

There is the established “Upper Middle Class” coaches, who have had success and are well-regarded, but not yet at Calhoun or Boeheim status. Among these are coaches like Mike Brey at Notre Dame, Jamie Dixon at Pittsburgh, and Jay Wright at Villanova.

The most interesting group, though, are the Movers and Shakers, the Up-and-Coming, revamped programs. Within this, we find Steve Lavin and St. John’s, Mike Rice and Rutgers, and Mick Cronin and Cincinnati. They may be on different trajectories on their way to the “Upper Middle Class,” but they are all headed in that direction.

Part of the reason why the Big East sent a record 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament this past season was because of the rise of these Movers and Shakers and the fall of higher orders. When Villanova limped through the end of the regular season and into the NCAA Tournament, teams like St. John’s and Cincinnati took advantage.

And this trend could continue.

How much longer will established names like Calhoun, Boeheim, and Pitino stick around? When they leave, will a replacement come in with the same recruiting prowess and coaching stature to keep the program at the same level? Even at programs like Pittsburgh, there could be instability. Jamie Dixon‘s name was reportedly floating around as a possible candidate to become the next head coach at Maryland a few weeks ago, which could dramatically change the landscape of the conference.

This is the point where other programs can make their way to the top.

While UConn’s sanctions will not turn out to be devastating (a loss of a scholarship for 3 years and a reduction in off-campus recruiting days), it still shines a negative light on the program.

St. John’s has taken advantage of this already, swooping in and getting a signature from Queens forward Maurice Harkless after he decommitted from Connecticut, following the announcement of the NCAA investigation that eventually led to the sanctions above.

This season, the Red Storm have a Top 3 recruiting class in the country, according to ESPN, a class that is brand new, aside from returning guard Malik Stith.

Absent from that same Top 25 are Notre Dame, Connecticut, and Villanova.

Syracuse, Louisville, Pittsburgh and Georgetown all maintain strongholds in the Top 15, and Rutgers sneaks in at No. 16.

Established programs like Rick Pitino and Louisville will have to keep pace with younger, up-and-coming programs in the Big East. (Photo: Icon/SMI Select)
Though a ranking in the Top 25 does not guarantee anything, it gives a solid outline of where certain teams are. The Big East will always bring in talent, as is evidence by Villanova’s strong, yet unranked incoming class, but, because there is so much talent, every small advantage could be the difference between being in the Tournament and not.

This coming season, Steve Lavin and St. John’s will try to follow the path to success that Marquette’s Buzz Williams is now enjoying.

Though the programs were at different points when their respective coaches took over, Williams brought his 2009-2010 Golden Eagles, a team that had lost their three stars in Jerel McNeal, Wes Matthews, and Dominic James, back to the NCAA Tournament when few expected it.

The Red Storm face a similar situation, after losing nine seniors to graduation and two players (Dwayne Polee II and Quincy Roberts) to transfer. Lavin could pull off the same surprise that Williams did, but he will have to do it with one of the youngest teams in the country.

An NCAA Tournament berth, even if there is a first round exit, would be a major victory for the Red Storm in 2011-2012, and it would keep them on track with Marquette’s three-year plan under Williams.

His Golden Eagles went to the Tournament in 2008-2009, his first season with a talented team (as did the Red Storm), surprised in his second season, and made the Sweet Sixteen this past season, his third with the team.

If St. John’s stays on that path, Lavin will keep the fanbase energized and pave a road for long-term success in Queens. So long as their recruiting presence stays as strong as it was this past year, the Red Storm can make a push toward the top of the conference.

Across the state line in New Jersey, it appears Rutgers is working on a plan similar to what Jay Wright built at Villanova.

It took Jay Wright three seasons before the Wildcats made their way to the NCAA Tournament, and Mike Rice could make that blueprint work for the Scarlet Knights.

Rice’s incoming class, at No. 16 in the country, is highlighted by extremely quick and talented local product Myles Mack, who could develop into a quality point guard on an NCAA Tournament team in the future.

Because the influx of talent isn’t as great as the flood to Lavin and St. John’s, Rutgers’ rebuilding curve will be longer, perhaps even longer than Wright at Villanova. But, Rice is a classy coach who is proving he can convince local talent to stay home, and that will benefit him in the long run.

Changes will not happen overnight. This shift does not mean Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh suddenly round out the bottom half and St. John’s, Rutgers, Cincinnati, and Marquette rule the top. Certain things must fall into places, with perhaps big-time retirements or departures, but the other pieces are in position and ready to attack.

It could take as long as three to five years, but expect to see some surprising teams fall and other surprises rise to the top of the nation’s most competitive conference.