On one level, the reasons for hope for the Johnnies against the Duke Blue Devils are slim. The defending national champion Duke Blue Devils are rolling through their schedule with 1 ACC loss – their only loss overall. As Norm Roberts said last season (and divulged recently), “Do you see the size of these dudes? They are gigantic.”
And they’re still big. Still tough. And filled with talent.
St. John’s has reason for hope. The last 2 years, the Red Storm have played the Blue Devils tough. One could say that without Justin Burrell’s injury, maybe St. John’s could have come back to knock them off last year. And the year before, Paris Horne’s foul trouble helped derail the Red Storm. Additionally, St. John’s coach Steve Lavin has a history of strange mid-season turnarounds from his time with UCLA, and of knocking off top-five teams when his team’s chances seemed slim.
Upsets are built on seemingly improbable occurrences, on overachieving play, and on surprisingly good game plans. For the St. John’s seniors, this is the final chance to knock off Kyle Singler and his Duke teammates. This is a chance for a high-profile win. This is a marquee opponent, the kind of game they came to St. John’s to play. And the new staff may have some tricks up their sleeve to beat Duke.
The eyes of the nation will once again be on the Red Storm. Can they deliver an upset?
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Duke Blue Devils (19-1, 6-1 ACC)
It’s hard to get a true gauge of how good the Blue Devils are. The ACC is a fairly weak league this season, and many of Duke’s marquee opponents have proven to be middling teams. Michigan State seemed like such a good win. So did Kansas State and Butler. All three of those teams have had some struggles, and an argument can be made that the Blue Devils’ best competition this year has been Maryland and Florida State.
With all of that said: Duke is very good once again. Despite the loss of freshman phenom point guard Kyrie Irving from New Jersey to a foot injury, Mike Krzyzewski’s squad is humming along just fine. They are an elite jump shooting team with a lot of height. That height helps them defend the paint extremely well, while their guards and wings can light up the scoreboard. They also defend without fouling, and protect the ball well, despite an often fast and demoralizing pace.
In Irving’s place at guard, senior Nolan Smith has become one of the nation’s best all-around guards. He averages 5.7 assists, 20.5 points per game, 4.6 rebounds per game, and is very effective driving inside the arc, drawing fouls and converting drives. He is also the team’s ace defender; he powers the Blue Devils. Stephen Curry’s little brother Seth transfered to Duke and has provided a nice second scorer in the backcourt. He does little else besides score. Sweet-shooting sophomore guard Andre Dawkins can provide some outside punch, but has enjoyed a lot of time next to the assistant coaches recently.
On the wing, Kyle “Shampoo” Singler has been a Blue Devil for the past 3.5 years. Perhaps because he’s tall and doesn’t slap the floor, he doesn’t get made fun of as some of his fellow 4-year Duke stars, JJ Redick and Greg Paulus. It helps that he neither writes bad poetry (Redick) or can’t play very well (Paulus), though Singler’s art projects should draw more snickering and mockery. Singler is a very good Duke wing, with a nice release and some ability on the offensive glass. He’s not the greatest scorer inside the arc, but has done well in ACC conference play, shooting just under 50% on 2-pointers; he doesn’t draw many fouls and seemed bothered on defense last year by former St. John’s guard Omari Lawrence’s strength.
Up front, the Dukies have some difference-makers. Mason and Miles Plumlee see a lot of time in the paint. Mason has a little more range and has been a better post player – he’s pretty dominant at cleaning the glass on both ends and blocking shots. Both have had some trouble with turnovers. Behind them is Ryan Kelly, who gets a lot of open shots (and hits them from outside). He’s rounding into his own, and has been on a hot scoring streak; he even blocked some shots for good measure.
Keys to the Game
Go All Out. St. John’s has to give the best effort of the year in this game, attacking the Blue Devils with everything they have. This has been helpful in the past against Duke; there have been stretches in every meeting in the last 4 years where the Red Storm were really playing up to the competition. But the energy level is needed, especially against a Duke team with a day less to prepare for the road trip to Madison Square Garden.
Slash to the Inside. The Blue Devils have height in the paint, but the Red Storm have to find ways of getting points close to the basket. It’s where they are most effective; the Johnnies’ jump shooting has been poor in recent games.
Force Mistakes and Don’t Give Those Mistakes Back. The Red Storm’s defense has been active and pesky against many teams, forcing turnovers and miscues. But St. John’s has punted any advantage their defense gives them by giving the ball back – the errant passes, poor shot selection on occasion, and simply not protecting the ball against the other teams’ hands. If St. John’s can force Duke into mistakes and play mistake-free, they have a chance to make this game much tighter – and slower – than expected.
Fight on the Glass. Duke will have a height and rebounding advantage coming in; but the Red Storm’s bigs can be potent rebounding forces in their own right.
Hardy and Kennedy. Someone needs to hit some jump shots so the Blue Devils don’t just pack the paint in the halfcourt. Dwight Hardy has been cold, and Kennedy has been a non-factor; Buckets and Big Play need to come on the court and etch their name in the record books against Duke.
Prediction: St. John’s shows some fight, but still loses. Duke 79, St. John’s 66
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