Great Alaska Finals: Arizona State

Ambiance: Van Halen, Top of the World (video)

After a sound beating of the Drake Bulldogs, the St. John’s Red Storm challenge the Arizona Sun Devils in tonight’s Great Alaska Shootout final, which should tip off at 12:00 AM Eastern. Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils will be the Johnnies’ first major-conference opponent; a win could be a bellwether for future success and a sign of the progress that Coach Lavin has made teaching new lessons to his senior-laden squad.

Last night, the Red Storm exploded with an excellent defensive effort, containing Drake’s big man Seth VanDeest and forcing missed shot after missed shot, rattling the young Drake team.

A good win, but it’s important to remember that St. John’s played a developing Drake team that lost just as badly to Iowa State. Note that Drake didn’t seem to have a lot of movement or energy in their offense, and missed a few open shots from what have been the weak spots in St. John’s defense, the corner and along the baseline. Arizona State shooters Trent Lockett and Rihards Kuksiks can make that shot.

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Team Review

Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1)

Arizona State has earned a reputation for slow, methodical, controlled play. Their slow pace belies their efficiency, at least in recent years; this team, under Sendek, can score and defend, even if their games aren’t filled with pulse-pounding back-and-forth play and quick passing. On defense, expect them to extend their zone at times to slow the Red Storm from getting into their sets. St. John’s has to be actively hunting long rebounds off of missed threes; the Sun Devils were simply terrible at clearing long rebounds and gave up second chances. Those second chances and fouls Arizona State committed made the game closer than it should have been against Weber State.

The Sun Devils didn’t show a lot of movement against zone defense last night, and were led by guard play… because the post play was low-impact. The Sun Devils shot deep outside shots and got contributions off of a screen then a dribble or two for jump shots. St. John’s needs to take pains to fight through the screens.

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So far this year, the Devils have been a little off, bricking shots from the outside in particular. A lot of that errancy (if that’s a word) falls on Rihards Kuksiks, who has been one of the most prolific shooters in Arizona State history. He’s made 8 of 30 shots. Ty Abbott, who shot 40% from the three last year, has shot 3 of 13 (23%). Is it the loss of point guard Derek Glasser from last year’s team? Is it the loss of the post presence from last year’s team, Eric Boateng (even if he didn’t put up a lot of shots)?

The Sun Devils have been paced in its scoring by 6’4″ sophomore guard Trent Lockett. Lockett will be looked to early and often to score. He uses screens well to start his drives and is very willing to take a 15-foot jump shot or drive. He doesn’t look that quick shooting the three-pointer, and has only shot 3 this year (making 2). He’s also drawn a lot of fouls and passes as well.

Jamelle McMillan is a good passer at the point guard position (given the Sun Devils’ style of play), and had a hot game against Weber State (he needs to be watched in transition). In his career, the senior has tended to hang out around the three-point line for his shots. Fellow guard Ty Abbott is coming off of a knee contusion and hasn’t yet made a huge impact.

On the wing, Rihards Kuksiks is the shooter; but he has to be made to hesitate. He can get hot, and is willing to shoot off of one dribble inside the arc. Don’t underestimate him; he got hot in the second half yesterday. Kaela King is a freshman who was touted as having James Harden’s range of skills; he hasn’t gotten a lot of minutes but he has shown promise, especially with rebounding and passing. Chase Creekmur is an outside shooter who hasn’t found his range yet.

Up front, the Sun Devils tried to address their post weakness by starting Kyle Cain yesterday. He’s a freshman who got out of his LOI to Rhode Island to play with the Sun Devils. He’s had a really impressive game rebounding the ball against Houston Baptist, and has been an efficient scorer. Cain was mostly a non-factor last night. Ruslan Pateev is tall, but stiff; his ability to handle the ball should be constantly tested.

Keys to the Game

Find Lockett and Kuksiks. The team has to be aware of where those two at all times – on the break, through screens, and when they drift into the corner. Both will get their shots off, but St. John’s can minimize Lockett’s drives and make Kuksiks put the ball on the floor. Both can score from those positions, but they will be less destructive.

Penetrate and Shoot. The Arizona State forwards can be awkward defensively; the Red Storm should attack the paint with strength, especially with aggressive offense off of ASU misses. The Sun Devils can  effectively choke off the paint with their size. But the Red Storm can drive and kick the ball out to shooters. Passing the ball around the perimeter and a lack of player motion just plays to the Sun Devils’ defensive strengths. St. John’s will need to score regularly to win this game.

Go Even Harder Than Yesterday. St. John’s has to create chaos, and come with energy. Turnovers, deflections, and physical play will help the team get closer to the championship. Arizona State looked a little sloppy passing the ball and on inbounds passes. The Red Storm has to make everything difficult as much as they can and keep the Sun Devil shooters off rhythm.

Own the Glass. St. John’s needs to get second chances on offense, especially on long shots. I don’t expect the Sun Devils to crash their offensive glass, but there will be long rebounds from ASU’s deep shot attempts.

Free Throws. Arizona State keeps games close, and in what should be a game with a generally slow pace, free throws – getting to the line and actually making the shots – will play a huge role tonight.

Prediction: Arizona State 65-64. If I were more sold on the Red Storm’s ability to make free throws, I would say they would win, but too many members of the team miss too many free throw shots.