No Hangover

We ran everything we wanted to. We knew plays they were going to run. We made them do things they didn’t want to do. We controlled the paint . . . and we really controlled the tone.

Justin Burrell, after the West Virginia win

After an impressive conference-opening win at West Virginia, St. John’s continues Big East play with another road game at Providence on New Year’s Day.  I guess that means no champagne for the fellas at midnight (or maybe one glass) – if they want to stay sharp.

And this team should want to remain sharp. Last year, a weaker Providence team came to Carnesecca Arena and the Red Storm had their defense opened up like a banana. The Red Storm gave up 42 points in the second half and found it hard to score against a team that spent a whole season not playing defense. The Johnnies turned the ball over without Malik Boothe in the lineup and had little offensive flow.

Not only can St. John’s not afford to lose to this Friar team if they want to contend for  a spot in the top half of the league, they need to avenge what was a disturbing loss for the squad.

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Providence (11-3, 0-1 Big East)

Providence is 11-3 with wins over Alabama and local rival Rhode Island. Their schedule hasn’t been the most daunting, but the Friars have shown a willingness to play defense. They have been solid at defending the perimeter with their length at the point guard and the wings, and haven’t sent opponents to the line often (unlike West Virginia).

On offense, the Friars look to run on made and missed baskets, crash the glass and score well inside the paint. Keno Davis’ team doesn’t dig deep into the bench, but has some interesting talent in the wings. They are willing to a 4-guard lineup at times.

The Friars are led by the scorer Marshon Brooks and the point guard Vincent Council. Brooks is a senior who is not shy about taking shots.  From anywhere and at anytime, he will pull up and stroke it, though he is adept at driving to the rim. He does more of his scoring inside the arc, and gets to the line fairly frequently. He can block a shot as well, and grabs rebounds on both ends. In fact, he’s not a terrible passer (by the numbers) and has some steals; he does it all.

Vincent Council plays point guard and has some nice defensive stretches.  He has turned the ball over on occasion, but is also putting up excellent assist numbers, while getting to the line even more than Brooks does.

Also at guard is the freshman Gerard Coleman, who has been capable outside but less of a threat from the perimeter. He was a highly rated recruit, so one never knows when he might have a coming-out party. Duke Mondy is strictly a perimeter shooter, though his percentages haven’t been great in his sophomore year. He grabs steals as well.  Freshman Bryce Cotton is pesky on defense.

Up front, the Friars have improved with a pair of big bodies doing the dirty work. Bilal Dixon and Kadeem Batts both rebound very well, don’t hunt their shots down, and provide some defense inside. Batts is more efficient on offense and focuses on offensive rebounding. Dixon is a far better defensive rebounder, blocks shots at a strong rate, but has struggled to score efficiently or from the free throw line. Ron Giplaye backs them up with more rebounding and blocked shots.

Keys to the Game

Take Care of the Ball. St. John’s can’t afford to turn the ball over to a team that isn’t good at forcing turnovers; the Red Storm can’t defeat themselves.

Anticipate Fast Attacks. St. John’s has to get back in transition and anticipate the streaking Friars’ players; many of their points come from their transition game.  If St. John’s can either slow them down or prevent them from getting easy perimeter shots in transition, the Friars will struggle.

Control the Game. Much like the above Key, St. John’s simply cannot allow them to go on long unanswered runs. The Fordham game is a good lesson for this matchup – a team that can give up a lot of points but can also score a bunch in a hurry if the Red Storm isn’t careful.  St. John’s has to take smart, efficient shots… preferably the types that get Friar post players into foul trouble.

Master the Glass. Once again, if St. John’s can keep their opponent from offensive rebounds – and get some second-chance points themselves – the Red Storm can win this matchup.

Cover the Perimeter. Providence has some shooters, even if they haven’t tasted a lot of success this season. The Red Storm can’t slack on their perimeter defense.

Prediction: St. John’s wins this one, 79-75.