Storming Philadelphia

Winners of six straight, St. John’s is clicking at the right time. A number of players find ways to contribute; the team is beating those pillars of the Big East that have kicked sand in the Johnnies’ collective faces for years; and the buzz is building around the program.

Down the east coast, however, storm clouds seem to be forming over the Villanova Wildcats. Player injuries. A lack of depth. Worries that the team is “lacking IQ,” that something is wrong, that the sky is falling.

Meanwhile, those Wildcats are ranked #15 in the country by the AP and #14 by the Coaches’ poll, and are battling teams like St. John’s for the top-4 slot in the Big East – also known as the coveted double-bye, two games off of Big East Tournament competition. There is often some argument that the double-bye hurts teams’ rhythm, but an extra game off? That might be nice for the players, and means the Red Storm ended the season in the top 4.

Saturday’s game against Villanova gives the Red Storm a chance to break a losing streak – 6 games to Villanova – in this retribution season. And there is seeding at stake – in the Big East Tournament and in the NCAA Tournament as well. And Sean Evans gets to play in front of friends and family for the last time. And a great game by Dwight Hardy could cement him as Big East Player of the Year.

This will be a tough road contest against one of the league’s best teams. let’s find out more about the Wildcats.

[gigpress_related_shows]

Villanova Wildcats (21-7, 9-6 Big East)

The Wildcats are a curious team, mized with veteran leaderships and what should be hot up-and-coming sophomores.  They should have depth, size, and should have contended for the top spot in the Big East.

That’s why they play the games, I suppose. McDonald’s All-American JayVaughn Pinkston is sitting out the year as punishment for a fight he got into with fellow Villanova students. Corey Stokes has missed some game to injury. Skinny post player Maurice Sutton seems to have violated team rules (curfew) enough that he’s in the doghouse.

What looked like depth has become a 7 man rotation with 5-7 minutes for an eighth. And that rotation has been inconsistent at scoring the basketball in conference play, along with a little turnover-prone. The emergence of Mouphtaou Yarou’s rebounding, very good free throw shooting, and outside shot-making has helped carry a Wildcat team filled with flaws through the season. They will press a little, but generally don’t hunt turnovers, preferring to force misses in the halfcourt.

The Wildcats are led by a two-headed point guard system run by Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns. They are an interesting tandem; at times, neither looks like the kind of player that will lead a team efficiently. Both can be caught looking for their shot, but both also sports healthy assist numbers- 5 per game for Fisher, and 4.6 per game for Wayns. Wayns is fast and needs to be kept out of the lane; he’s much less dangerous with contested jump shots. He shoots 24% from three-point range (22-91). Fisher is fast but also crafty, known for scoring 105 points in a summer league game in New York City.  He’s the team’s second-best outside shooter.

The 6’5″ Corey Stokes on the wing is the team’s most efficient player. He is the Wildcats’ best outside shooter, and they struggled when he missed a few games with turf toe.  Most of his shot attempts are from the perimeter, and the defense will need to shade his way to prevent him from getting clean catches and easy looks.  He’s also Villanova’s best perimeter defender, and may spend a lot of time watching Dwight Hardy’s numbers.

Emerging post play from Mouphtaou Yarou has been a boon to Villanova; his ability allows former Lincoln High star Antonio Pena to open up his game. Yarou is a strong man in the post and knows how to take up space. Despite being a little turnover-prone, the sophomore can go up strong with the ball and gets ample opportunities to score; the Wildcats look for their big men.

Antonio Pena has a little range, maybe out to 15-17 feet; he’s even hit a pair of three-pointers (2 of 6).  he does solid board work on the defensive glass but opens up on offense, where he can score inside and off of jump shots, especially in the pick-and-roll.  The size and agility of the front court could pose problems for the Red Storm.

Off the bench, New Jersey star Dominic Cheek can get some shots up, but he’s struggling to get them into the orange cylinder. he shoots readily enough that he’s not a threat to turn over the ball, but the team would like 2 of 9 evenings. Freshman James Bell gets some time; he has hops but hasn’t been a huge part of the offense. Time for forward Isaiah Armwood comes and goes; he is long and athletic, can rebound and draw some fouls. Armwood may play a bit to counteract the Red Storm’s transition looks.

Keys to the Game

Force turnovers. The Wildcats are a bit turnover-prone, with guards flying into the paint without a plan and forwards who bring the ball low after rebounds. Those balls need to end up in red and white hands, starting transition opportunities.

Keep Yarou off the offensive glass. His teammates as well; but Yarou is taller than St. John’s front line, athletic, and could be a real problem for the Johnnies. If Yarou, Armwood, and Pena can be forces inside, it doesn’t bode well for the Red Storm’s chances.

Defend + harass. Much like with Kemba Walker, Wayns needs to be kept from getting a lane to the basket and made to take mid-range contested jump shots. And the same goes for the rest of the Wildcats’ perimeter players – they cannot have multiple clean looks or catch the ball in shooting rhythm. If the Wildcats aren’t shooting well, they don’t generate points in other ways well enough to compensate.

Get Hardy free. Dwight Hardy might find some tough sledding against the height of the Wildcats, and the staff has to continue to find ways of freeing up the Johnnies’ most dynamic offensive weapon.

Hit the open shots. This, too, is a big game, and the Red Storm have to wear their big game pants once more. The team has to take open shots and nail them, because those opportunities will not always be there.

Prediction: Villanova takes it at home, 72-68.