St. John’s Basketball By The Numbers: How Will the Red Storm Replace Their Losses?

With Malik Stith as the only returning scholarship letterwinner next season for the Red Storm, it is obvious that there are holes to be filled. But, it isn’t entirely clear until one takes a look at the numbers to see just how much production St. John’s is losing. JohnnyJungle.com breaks out the calculator and crunches the numbers to answer the ultimate question, who can step up for the Red Storm in 2011-2012?

96% – Percentage of Point Production Lost to Graduation/Transfer

Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee, the two leading scorers for the Red Storm last season, are gone and graduated. In fact, the last season’s top 8 scorers for St. John’s have either graduated or transferred.

To his credit, Malik Stith averaged 10.7 points/40 minutes, which means he has the potential to be a solid contributor if given a starter’s minutes. Especially early in the season, including 13 points against St. Mary’s and 10 against Arizona State, he showed that he had some scoring ability to add to his typical distribution-oriented style.

Who Steps In?:

Fortunately for the Red Storm, scoring was an obvious point of emphasis for Steve Lavin on the recruiting trail. Maurice Harkless, Jakarr Sampson, Nurideen Lindsey, Phil Greene, and God’s Gift Achiuwa all averaged close to or above 20 points per game for their respective teams last season.

But, one name stands out as the premier, Division I-ready scorer: Texas native D’Angelo Harrison. This past season as a senior, Harrison averaged 31 points for Dulles HS (TX). He is a multifaceted scorer who can shoot from distance or take it to the basket with purpose. That, coupled with his unparalleled confidence, could make him a legitimate, high-volume scorer as a freshman in the Big East.

98% – Percentage of Total Rebounds Lost to Graduation/Transfer

One of the biggest problems St. John’s had in their loss to Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament was the lack of size and rebounding against the Bulldogs’ size and strength. DJ Kennedy led the team with 5.6 rebounds per game last season, but was more of a perimeter rebounder than a force in the paint. In addition, he was unable to play in the tournament due to injury.

Justin Burrell was the Red Storm’s best physical rebounder, averaging close to 5 in 20 minutes per game. He is a big-framed forward off the bench that the Red Storm will miss next season.

Who Steps In?:

Up until the Spring signing period, there were concerns about incoming big men for the Red Storm because, though they had size, players like Jakarr Sampson, Norvel Pelle, and (before his transfer) Dwight Meikle are lanky and perhaps not bulky enough to throw weight around in the paint.

Then, just after Easter, St. John’s signed God’s Gift Achiuwa, the 6’9’’ 240 lb. native of Nigeria. At Erie CC (NY) this past season, he averaged 11.7 rebounds per game and is a true force in the paint. He is similar in size to Burrell and could play the same role, depending on how Steve Lavin decides to use him. Indications are that he will either start at center, or come off the bench while Norvel Pelle starts.

94% – Percentage of Total Assists lost to Graduation/Transfer

Point guard Malik Boothe was the team’s leading assist man last season, with nearly 3 per game. Lavin’s offense wasn’t necessarily based on distribution-style basketball because Dwight Hardy was the both starting point guard and the main scoring option. With Hardy running the point, the Red Storm also lacked a consistent outside shooter off the ball, which would have opened up the inside-out game off of Hardy’s effective dribble penetration.

Many times, Steve Lavin had Stith and Boothe on the floor at the same time, which didn’t translate into scoring, but was good at eating clock and controlling the ball. Without Boothe, Stith will be the main ball control point guard and could benefit from the other skilled scorers on the floor.

Who Will Step In?:

Though he is naturally a combo guard, the job will most likely fall to projected starting point guard Nurideen Lindsey. He is a prolific scorer, averaging 22 points per game at Redlands CC (OK) last season, but will have to facilitate the offense as well next season.

His ability to dribble penetrate will help him enormously, drawing the defense in and kicking it out to shooters like Harrison and Harkless. All of the athleticism and size down low will also benefit the Philadelphia native, as he can feed it into the post to Pelle and Sampson and work an inside-out game. Ultimately, Lindsey will be the catalyst to this offense, just as Hardy was last season.

99% – Percentage of Total Blocks Lost to Graduation/Transfer

The Red Storm lacked a true shotblocker last season and their interior defense struggled at times because of it. Justin Brownlee led the team with 28 blocks, but that still averages out to less than one per game. Dwayne Polee II showed some bright spots rolling to help on the weak-side and block shots, but he has left the program as well.

Dele Coker, at 6’10”, had potential to be a Mutombo-like shotblocker, but he saw limited minutes and struggled to stay out of foul trouble during those minutes.

Who Will Step In?:

St. John’s will feature incredible length and versatility next season in the frontcourt, with at least three players who are potential shotblockers at the Division I level. But, of those, 6’9”, lanky forward/center Norvel Pelle will shine. His reach and length will make it tough for there to be dribble penetration into the lane and he gets blocks from the weak side, as well.

Along with Pelle, Sampson and God’s Gift will get their share of blocked shots. Sampson plays with raw ferociousness and impressive athleticism that allows him to alter shots around the rim. God’s Gift will be the “traditional” shotblocker, the big-bodied, bulky Ben Wallace-type down low.