6th Man of St. John's Basketball
St. John's Red Storm => In The Jungle... => Topic started by: desco80 on December 16, 2014, 04:35:51 PM
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So, I've been reviewing Ken Poms stats a lot today, and I thought it would be interesting to look at this year's team v. last season, and see where, statistically at least, the improvement has come from.
Note: the number in parenthesis is SJU's national rank in that category.
Offense 2014 2015
Effective FG%: 48.7 /(211) 49.2 /(149)
Turnover %: 15.6 /(29) 17.1 /(43)
Off. Reb. %: 31.1 /(180) 28.8 /(246)
FTA/FGA: 37.1 /(263) 42.4 /(84)
3P%: 34.9/ (145) 31.3 /(230)
2P%: 47.6 /(215) 50.2 /(97)
FT%: 69.9 /(178) 69.1 /(157)
The first things that pop out at me are that we're shooting slightly better than last season, and getting to the free throw line a lot more often.
But by and large, this is a similar team offensively.
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I should point out that the number in paranthesis is SJU's national rank in that category.
Defense 2014 2015
Effective FG%: 46.5 (54) 40.4 (11)
Turnover %: 19.2 (114) 20.7 (131)
Off. Reb. %: 30.8 (140) 29.7 (121)
FTA/FGA: 38.1(125) 30.3 (65)
3P%: 34.5 (178) 26.5 (15)
2P%: 44.0 (31) 40.6 (26)
FT%: 70.8(226) 58.0 (6)
Block%: 19.9 (1) 18.4 (4)
Steal%: 9.9 (89 12.2 (44)
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Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%.
But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
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Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
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Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
I think in general we're making teams work harder and it's paying dividends.
If you look at the picture overall, it lends some credence to your theory that Sampson and Sanchez hurt the team. It looks like defensively we're much better as a team without them.
Holding opponents to lower %s from 2 and from 3pt. So, I may have to agree with you that Jakarr only played defense when he wanted to (like against Creighton).
The stats though don't show noticeable improvement offensively, so it's not like we're all of a sudden sharing the ball more since they're gone. On that point I still think you're wrong.
But if we keep up the defensive pressure, we should hang in a lot of games.
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Great posts Desco - very interesting. Some stats I'd love to know are the following Points off Turnovers (both offensively and defensively) for both years, AND assist/FG ratio both this year and last year offensively.
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Great posts Desco - very interesting. Some stats I'd love to know are the following Points off Turnovers (both offensively and defensively) for both years, AND assist/FG ratio both this year and last year offensively.
Thanks. Slow day at work lol
I couldn't find the pts off turnovers, but
2014 2015
Assists/Fg 50.1 (210) 47.2 (273)
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How about assists? Ball movement has been much better. Also, stats don't measure toughness. We were incredibly soft last year.
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How about assists? Ball movement has been much better. Also, stats don't measure toughness. We were incredibly soft last year.
Ken Pom also doesn't measure the reduction of dumb-ass decisions that plagued last year's team. In this area, Dom has made a marked improvement, recent ball throwing incident aside.
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Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
Green's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased
Obekpa's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased
Branch's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased
Question: why do our more tired players this year shoot FTs better than our less tired players last year?
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How about assists? Ball movement has been much better. Also, stats don't measure toughness. We were incredibly soft last year.
Eh, they kind've do. You fight for the ball you get more rebounds, draw more charges, get to the line more etc
Bottom line is our offense is very similar to last season, our defense is significantly better.
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Are you saying the ball movement and unselfish play to date(granted it is against the mighty rams etc) is the same as last year? Open looks? Better execution?
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So, I've been reviewing Ken Poms stats a lot today, and I thought it would be interesting to look at this year's team v. last season, and see where, statistically at least, the improvement has come from. Note: the number in parenthesis is SJU's national rank in that category. Offense 2014 2015 Effective FG%: 48.7 /(211) 49.2 /(149) Turnover %: 15.6 /(29) 17.1 /(43) Off. Reb. %: 31.1 /(180) 28.8 /(246) FTA/FGA: 37.1 /(263) 42.4 /(84) 3P%: 34.9/ (145) 31.3 /(230) 2P%: 47.6 /(215) 50.2 /(97) FT%: 69.9 /(178) 69.1 /(157) The first things that pop out at me are that we're shooting slightly better than last season, and getting to the free throw line a lot more often. But by and large, this is a similar team offensively.
It's more than just the stats. Guys are hitting clutch shots and making clutch plays now. Games have not come down to a free throw or a single possession yet. Last year, both Harrison and Sampson missed key free throws that would have either given us a win, or a much better chance to win. H
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Are you saying the ball movement and unselfish play to date(granted it is against the mighty rams etc) is the same as last year? Open looks? Better execution?
Well its not my opinion, it's a fact. We're not executing much better this year. If we were, we would have higher scoring %s, and more assists to fieldgoals.
We are shooting slightly better, and playing substantially better defense.
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Stats do not tell the whole story. How about the the two passes before the assist. Watch Hoosiers and get back to us with your assessment of what you think matters when trying to win a basketball game. This team is light years ahead of last year's team of me first nonsense(to date). Stay healthy and they have a shot at having a nice season. Did you ever get that feeling last year? I did not.
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Chemistry is better, passes are crisper and shot selection is better
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Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
Green's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Obekpa's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Branch's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Question: why do our more tired players this year shoot FTs better than our less tired players last year?
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
Green's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Obekpa's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Branch's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Question: why do our more tired players this year shoot FTs better than our less tired players last year?
I am in no way suggesting that a player's FT % will drop with increased minutes. We cannot be effectively pressed as a team with three to four ball-handlers that can easily break a press. Defending our guards far from the basket is actually an advantage for SJU, and that is why you don't see that very much. You see teams packing in the paint and/or playing zone--allowing our guards to walk the ball up the court and it isn't as taxing on them.
All I am saying that is that I don't believe the lower opponent FT shooting % is entirely bad luck on their part. The shooting %s are down across the board. We are making teams work a lot harder to score this year. We are wearing teams down. With that written, I still expect the FT % to climb as bad luck certainly does have something to do with it.
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Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%.
But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
Defending the 3 with less 3 pt attempts is what has made VCU so effective on D. Maintaining that particular category is most important for the D.
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Are you saying the ball movement and unselfish play to date(granted it is against the mighty rams etc) is the same as last year? Open looks? Better execution?
Well its not my opinion, it's a fact. We're not executing much better this year. If we were, we would have higher scoring %s, and more assists to fieldgoals. We are shooting slightly better, and playing substantially better defense.
There was a time last year when we were a good to very good basketball team. I wouldnt expect our stats to look that bad after the full year.
I dont expect for you to look these up (no matter how slow your day at work is!) but I think if you took our stats from the first 3rd of the last years season and put it up against this years you would see a bigger % increase. I think what is so exciting about this year is that we have yet to see a Lavin team play this well this early. It usually takes till Late January for a run.
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Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. /quote]
credit goes to the defensive distraction of Obekpa's nut hugger shorts
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regardless of stats offensively this is just a better team. Not all one on one and praying DLO gets the ball when we need a basket like last year. We legitimately have 4 - 5 guys that can score if given the right opportunity. Also, last year when the ball went into the middle (Sampson) it was generally going up (a black hole). This year Dom looks to kick out to shooters.
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I'm all for advanced statistics, but like baseball ( even more so ) they can't tell the whole story..
If you are trying to say that this team isn't much better than last year based solely on the numbers , then you are missing something... Just watch
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Front page on ESPN basketball, is Lavin talking about season is going so far. Did not realize this is his second best start ever. Not much on the future though. Overall it's nice to SJU being relevant again, all we need now is consistency.
http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/story?storyPage=coachspeak141217
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Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
Green's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Obekpa's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Branch's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Question: why do our more tired players this year shoot FTs better than our less tired players last year?
Being tired, or out of breath creates a zen like state. One deep breath and in it goes. What a line of Dodo from me.
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I'm all for advanced statistics, but like baseball ( even more so ) they can't tell the whole story.. If you are trying to say that this team isn't much better than last year based solely on the numbers , then you are missing something... Just watch
Stats don't really account for timing. A guy can finish with only one missed shot and one turnover, but if those both occur on the final two possessions of a close game, he just lost his team the game. We have a few guys really make poor decisions to close games last season. We seem to be doing a better job getting the ball into the hands of guys more able to make smart plays thus far.
Our interior defense was awful last year. Opposing coaches would concede getting several shots swatted knowing they could get several easy layups if they were not. They also knew they had three pointers all day if they went inside and kicked it back out. I'm not ready to crown this team a good three-point defensive team just yet, but they are at least making opponents work for for those shots. The interior defense has really been so much better through the first nine games.
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#21 overall in KenPom
#4 defensive team
http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE