Team Stats 9 games in; Review

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desco80

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Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« on: December 16, 2014, 04:35:51 PM »
So, I've been reviewing Ken Poms stats a lot today, and I thought it would be interesting to look at this year's team v. last season, and see where, statistically at least, the improvement has come from.

Note: the number in parenthesis is SJU's national rank in that category.

Offense                    2014                     2015
Effective FG%:     48.7 /(211)           49.2 /(149)
Turnover %:       15.6 /(29)               17.1 /(43)
Off. Reb. %:        31.1 /(180)            28.8 /(246) 
FTA/FGA:            37.1 /(263)             42.4 /(84)

3P%:                  34.9/ (145)              31.3 /(230)   
2P%:                  47.6 /(215)               50.2 /(97)
FT%:                  69.9 /(178)              69.1 /(157)

The first things that pop out at me are that we're shooting slightly better than last season, and getting to the free throw line a lot more often. 
But by and large, this is a similar team offensively.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 04:49:34 PM by desco80 »

desco80

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2014, 04:44:26 PM »
I should point out that the number in paranthesis is SJU's national rank in that category.

Defense                      2014                             2015                       
Effective FG%:              46.5 (54)               40.4 (11)                                 
Turnover %:                     19.2 (114)               20.7 (131)    
Off. Reb. %:                     30.8 (140)              29.7 (121)    
FTA/FGA:                        38.1(125)                30.3 (65)    

3P%:                                 34.5 (178)             26.5 (15)    
2P%:                                 44.0 (31)             40.6 (26)    
FT%:                                 70.8(226)            58.0 (6)    
Block%:                             19.9 (1)                  18.4 (4)    
Steal%:                             9.9 (89                12.2 (44)

desco80

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2014, 04:46:53 PM »
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots.   Last year out opponents shot 70%,  this year 58%.
But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board.   More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls.     And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved.  From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.

Marillac

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2014, 04:59:51 PM »
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.

The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky  SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded.  It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
 

desco80

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2014, 05:06:05 PM »
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.

I think in general we're making teams work harder and it's paying dividends.   

If you look at the picture overall, it lends some credence to your theory that Sampson and Sanchez hurt the team.   It looks like defensively we're much better as a team without them.
Holding opponents to lower %s from 2 and from 3pt.   So, I may have to agree with you that Jakarr only played defense when he wanted to (like against Creighton).
The stats though don't show noticeable improvement offensively, so it's not like we're all of a sudden sharing the ball more since they're gone.  On that point I still think you're wrong.

But if we keep up the defensive pressure, we should hang in a lot of games. 
« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 05:46:45 PM by desco80 »

Tha Kid

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2014, 05:19:31 PM »
Great posts Desco - very interesting.  Some stats I'd love to know are the following Points off Turnovers (both offensively and defensively) for both years, AND assist/FG ratio both this year and last year offensively.
"I drink and I know things"

desco80

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2014, 05:32:13 PM »
Great posts Desco - very interesting. Some stats I'd love to know are the following Points off Turnovers (both offensively and defensively) for both years, AND assist/FG ratio both this year and last year offensively.

Thanks.  Slow day at work lol

I couldn't find the pts off turnovers, but

                                          2014                                2015
Assists/Fg                       50.1 (210)                          47.2 (273)

Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2014, 05:35:34 PM »
How about assists?  Ball movement has been much better. Also, stats don't measure toughness.  We were incredibly soft last year.

DFF6

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2014, 05:41:58 PM »
How about assists? Ball movement has been much better. Also, stats don't measure toughness. We were incredibly soft last year.
Ken Pom also doesn't measure the reduction of dumb-ass decisions that plagued last year's team.  In this area, Dom has made a marked improvement, recent ball throwing incident aside. 

Foad

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2014, 05:45:50 PM »
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.

Green's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased

Obekpa's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased

Branch's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased

Question: why do our more tired players this year shoot FTs better than our less tired players last year?

desco80

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2014, 05:46:03 PM »
How about assists? Ball movement has been much better. Also, stats don't measure toughness. We were incredibly soft last year.
Eh, they kind've do.   You fight for the ball you get more rebounds, draw more charges, get to the line more etc
Bottom line is our offense is very similar to last season, our defense is significantly better.  

Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2014, 05:55:17 PM »
Are you saying the ball movement and unselfish play to date(granted it is against the mighty rams etc) is the same as last year?  Open looks?  Better execution?

Poison

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2014, 06:03:20 PM »
So, I've been reviewing Ken Poms stats a lot today, and I thought it would be interesting to look at this year's team v. last season, and see where, statistically at least, the improvement has come from. Note: the number in parenthesis is SJU's national rank in that category. Offense 2014 2015 Effective FG%: 48.7 /(211) 49.2 /(149) Turnover %: 15.6 /(29) 17.1 /(43) Off. Reb. %: 31.1 /(180) 28.8 /(246) FTA/FGA: 37.1 /(263) 42.4 /(84) 3P%: 34.9/ (145) 31.3 /(230) 2P%: 47.6 /(215) 50.2 /(97) FT%: 69.9 /(178) 69.1 /(157) The first things that pop out at me are that we're shooting slightly better than last season, and getting to the free throw line a lot more often. But by and large, this is a similar team offensively.
It's more than just the stats. Guys are hitting clutch shots and making clutch plays now. Games have not come down to a free throw or a single possession yet. Last year, both Harrison and Sampson missed key free throws that would have either given us a win, or a much better chance to win. H
« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 06:04:46 PM by Poison »

desco80

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2014, 06:18:57 PM »
Are you saying the ball movement and unselfish play to date(granted it is against the mighty rams etc) is the same as last year? Open looks? Better execution?
Well its not my opinion, it's a fact.  We're not executing much better this year.   If we were, we would have higher scoring %s, and more assists to fieldgoals.
We are shooting slightly better, and playing substantially better defense. 

Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2014, 06:48:18 PM »
Stats do not tell the whole story.  How about the the two passes before the assist.  Watch Hoosiers and get back to us with your assessment of what you think matters when trying to win a basketball game. This team is light years ahead of last year's team of me first nonsense(to date).  Stay healthy and they have a shot at having a nice season. Did you ever get that feeling last year?  I did not.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 06:50:33 PM by action jackson »

ras

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2014, 07:16:07 PM »
Chemistry is better, passes are crisper and shot selection is better

Marillac

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Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #16 on: December 16, 2014, 07:23:13 PM »
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
Green's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Obekpa's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Branch's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Question: why do our more tired players this year shoot FTs better than our less tired players last year?

 
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots. Last year out opponents shot 70%, this year 58%. But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board. More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls. And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved. From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
The opposing FT% will climb, but there is more to it than them being unlucky SJUs defense, as a few commentators have pointed out, makes them work and gets them winded. It is like jabs from a boxer...no single jab does that much, but it adds up.
Green's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Obekpa's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Branch's minutes have increased: his FT % has increased Question: why do our more tired players this year shoot FTs better than our less tired players last year?

I am in no way suggesting that a player's FT % will drop with increased minutes.  We cannot be effectively pressed as a team with three to four ball-handlers that can easily break a press.  Defending our guards far from the basket is actually an advantage for SJU, and that is why you don't see that very much.  You see teams packing in the paint and/or playing zone--allowing our guards to walk the ball up the court and it isn't as taxing on them.
All I am saying that is that I don't believe the lower opponent FT shooting % is entirely bad luck on their part.  The shooting %s are down across the board.  We are making teams work a lot harder to score this year.  We are wearing teams down.  With that written, I still expect the FT % to climb as bad luck certainly does have something to do with it.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 07:23:52 PM by Marillac »

Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #17 on: December 16, 2014, 07:31:42 PM »
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots.   Last year out opponents shot 70%,  this year 58%.
But generally speaking, our defense is better across the board.   More steals, lower opponent shooting%s, less fouls.     And noticeably, our 3pt defense is substantially improved.  From being 178th in the country, to 15th in opponent 3pt %.
Defending the 3 with less 3 pt attempts is what has made VCU so effective on D. Maintaining that particular category is most important for the D.

Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #18 on: December 16, 2014, 09:28:40 PM »
Are you saying the ball movement and unselfish play to date(granted it is against the mighty rams etc) is the same as last year? Open looks? Better execution?
Well its not my opinion, it's a fact. We're not executing much better this year. If we were, we would have higher scoring %s, and more assists to fieldgoals. We are shooting slightly better, and playing substantially better defense.

There was a time last year when we were a good to very good basketball team. I wouldnt expect our stats to look that bad after the full year.


I dont expect for you to look these up (no matter how slow your day at work is!) but I think if you took our stats from the first 3rd of the last years season and put it up against this years you would see a bigger % increase. I think what is so exciting about this year is that we have yet to see a Lavin team play this well this early. It usually takes till Late January for a run.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 09:29:16 PM by Amaseinyourface2 »
*wipes ketchup from his eyes* - I guess Heinz sight isn’t 20/20.

Re: Team Stats 9 games in; Review
« Reply #19 on: December 16, 2014, 09:33:28 PM »
Defensively, the thing that jumps out at you (and credit to Fun for pointing this out) is our opponents apparently forgot how to shoot foul shots.   /quote]





credit goes to the defensive distraction of Obekpa's nut hugger shorts
« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 09:33:52 PM by mjmaherjr »