2020 Election

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Marillac

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2020 Election
« on: August 30, 2020, 11:46:27 PM »
I think the election is effectively over now.  Trump will steamroll Biden and collect 320+ delegates and win the popular vote by seven-figures. The DNC did such a sh*t job with their campaign.  They've almost entirely left out Hispanic voters and that was clear to everyone after the convention. They made a severe miscalculation backing BLM over police and law and order. They read that completely wrong and their internal polling was a disaster there.

As VP, Biden got nearly every major law enforcement union to endorse his ticket in 2008 and 2012.  They even cited Biden as the main reason why.  There are a million police officers nationwide and probably another million court officers, correction officers, government agents, security personnel, etc. Add spouses, partners, kids, parents and extended family and there goes a ton of votes. A large % of those people are Black.

All the left had to do to win was cut the sh*t with the identity politics and the forced compliance.  That's it. 

After Trump wins big and the far-left riots and burns cities and then blames Russia for a few months, will the left learn from this or do they double down and follow maniacs like AOC? Are they going to continue to bully people into thinking pieces of sh*t like Jacob Blake are martyrs?

cjfish

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2020, 08:33:54 PM »
you sound like a delusional chump supporter.  Your anaylsis is absurd.  He is digging his own grave deeper on a daily basis..  If you had any knowledge of history you would know that he is following the playbook of hitler and is a danger to our democracy

Marillac

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2020, 02:31:25 AM »
you sound like a delusional chump supporter.  Your anaylsis is absurd.  He is digging his own grave deeper on a daily basis..  If you had any knowledge of history you would know that he is following the playbook of hitler and is a danger to our democracy


The election is in 10 weeks so you don't have to knock the prediction.  If I'm wrong, as you suggest, time will show it soon.

The first mistake the left made was setting the bar at not being Hitler for him to be re-elected.

Do you care to offer any actual analysis or do you just want to knock what I wrote?

Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2020, 03:26:21 PM »
Did any of you go to school when Reagan spoke at St. John's? Did some research and found that he spoke there in 1985. Must have been a great experience.
https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/research/speeches/32885b

It would be nice to see the hometown kid and current occupier of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. who grew up 30 seconds from campus come by at some point.

Poison

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2020, 03:45:23 PM »
Did any of you go to school when Reagan spoke at St. John's? Did some research and found that he spoke there in 1985. Must have been a great experience.
https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/research/speeches/32885b

It would be nice to see the hometown kid and current occupier of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. who grew up 30 seconds from campus come by at some point.

He’s not a kid. He’s a child. Big difference.

Marillac

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2020, 10:29:10 PM »
He’s not a kid. He’s a child. Big difference.

He's also your president and will be for four more years.
Do you have any predictions or any analysis on the two campaigns other than just trying to insult Trump.  I'm curious as to how the far-left feels.  The riots and the mass exodus from Democrat runs cities has to be troubling, no?

cjfish

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2020, 10:26:14 AM »
Im a centrist, far from far-left.  I believe Trump will be beaten handily but will do everything in his power to stay in office.  He has disgracefully been attempting to suppress the vote and has a small possibility of winning because of it.  My likely scenario is that trump may be ahead election night but will ultimately lose because of mailin voting. He will challenge the validity of whatever happens because he is a divisive fool and has no integrity. His base, largely ignorant fools (the fundamentalists being the largest body of ignorance in our country) will support whatever he does.  Get ready for a stormy ride through 1-20-2001, I dont think he will leave peacefully.  The 2018 election showed suburban women going blue and I think that election is a reflection of how this one will go.  I expect the Dems to take control of the Senate as well.  I see the country as very dissatisfied with his cult of personality rule.  His base will stand by him but this is 30-35% of the populace.  Few on the fence will vote Red.   Anecdotally, I know many republicans and conservatives who are voting for Biden, even a conservative Catholic deacon who runs a parish.   I think the American people will largely see him for the corrupt conman he is. 

Marillac

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2020, 11:00:08 AM »
Im a centrist, far from far-left.  I believe Trump will be beaten handily but will do everything in his power to stay in office.  He has disgracefully been attempting to suppress the vote and has a small possibility of winning because of it.  My likely scenario is that trump may be ahead election night but will ultimately lose because of mailin voting. He will challenge the validity of whatever happens because he is a divisive fool and has no integrity. His base, largely ignorant fools (the fundamentalists being the largest body of ignorance in our country) will support whatever he does.  Get ready for a stormy ride through 1-20-2001, I dont think he will leave peacefully.  The 2018 election showed suburban women going blue and I think that election is a reflection of how this one will go.  I expect the Dems to take control of the Senate as well.  I see the country as very dissatisfied with his cult of personality rule.  His base will stand by him but this is 30-35% of the populace.  Few on the fence will vote Red.   Anecdotally, I know many republicans and conservatives who are voting for Biden, even a conservative Catholic deacon who runs a parish.   I think the American people will largely see him for the corrupt conman he is. 

I disagree with about everything you wrote, but I respect you for actually putting it out there. I am slightly left of center myself, but I haven't been able to identify as a democrat after the seismic shift that has taken place the last 6-8 years.

Seattle, SF, LA, and Portland were great cities not all that long ago. They are toast now...covered in human feces and littered with drugs, homeless encampments, and violence.  Those cities are facing a mass exodus of wealthy citizens and big businesses. They are going to go try the same b.s. where they move too.

The crazy thing is it's never enough for the maniacs on the far-left.  They go after the very people that acquiesce to their insane demands.  They just tried setting fire to the Portland mayor's condo.  He's been denying feds from coming in and letting their arrestees go free.  In Seattle they went to the Mayor's residence as well after she allowed them to have their autonomous zone and defended them to the whole country.  In Minneapolis they made that pajama boy Mayor do the walk of shame because he wouldn't agree to completely abolish the police department.  In Chicago, Mayor Beetlejuice has to have 24/7 armed guards on her street to keep the "peaceful protestors" at bay. 

In salt lakes, the water evaporates but the salt stays behind growing more and more concentrated.  The same kind of thing happens in big cities when republicans keep leaving. Dems grow more and more concentrated, and a super-majority rarely leads to a good outcome.


Ez_Uzi

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2020, 11:25:58 AM »
Im a centrist, far from far-left.  I believe Trump will be beaten handily but will do everything in his power to stay in office.  He has disgracefully been attempting to suppress the vote and has a small possibility of winning because of it.  My likely scenario is that trump may be ahead election night but will ultimately lose because of mailin voting. He will challenge the validity of whatever happens because he is a divisive fool and has no integrity. His base, largely ignorant fools (the fundamentalists being the largest body of ignorance in our country) will support whatever he does.  Get ready for a stormy ride through 1-20-2001, I dont think he will leave peacefully.  The 2018 election showed suburban women going blue and I think that election is a reflection of how this one will go.  I expect the Dems to take control of the Senate as well.  I see the country as very dissatisfied with his cult of personality rule.  His base will stand by him but this is 30-35% of the populace.  Few on the fence will vote Red.   Anecdotally, I know many republicans and conservatives who are voting for Biden, even a conservative Catholic deacon who runs a parish.   I think the American people will largely see him for the corrupt conman he is. 

You don't offer much analysis, but I guess I appreciate whatever substantial points you make but I am afraid not your polemics. In essence, in America today, there are two populist movements happening right now. One that is new age conservativism and one that is new age socialism/communism. They both have different policy agendas but a common end, which is to undo the neo-liberal destruction of America through globalization of finance/production, outsourcing, open borders, urbanization and sanctuary cities and so on since the time of Clinton through Obama. For the conservative movement, the policy agenda focuses in on manufacturing, trade, law and order and equality of opportunity, and for the new left, it is almost all about redistribution (medicare for all, free college, UBI, defund the police for social purposes) and equality of outcomes.

Biden is in a tough spot, because at the moment centrist means a step back to the neo-liberal policies that created this mess to begin with and would alienate the left's populism (led by Sanders). Being a centrist is a losing strategy in current times, but the ploy of Trump to paint Biden as far left also checkmates Biden, who is now increasingly trying to move to the center more recently (his stand on defunding the police, law and order and medicare for all and other social protections). By moving more to the center, Biden will keep the wine sipping, suburban women but will lose the Bernie Bros. By moving further left, Biden will lose the suburban women, independents and a part of the black vote. In essence, check mate.

I don't think mail in voting is going to affect the outcome in already blue and red states. Where it can be troublesome is in those swing states that have a Democrat Governor and the system put in place to ensure accuracy and accountability.

Marillac

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2020, 01:16:23 PM »
One interesting wrinkle in this election is just how weak the third party candidates are.  Gary Johnson was a weird dude, but he got 4.5 million votes.  Jill Stein got 1.5 milion.  Those two were all over mainstream and social media for several months.  I had to look up who the Libertarian and Green Party candidates even were this time around. They are just complete non-factors this election.

I would think those parties being crap will favor Trump. Johnson got nearly 10% of his home state of New Mexico--wider than Hillary's margin of victory there.  Also, Hillary won NH by less than 3,000 votes. Johnson got over 36,000 votes in NH.  Nevada went to Hillary by 27,000 votes and Johnson got over 37,000 votes there (Green party not on ballot).  A weak Libertarian party candidate puts that race at almost a dead heat, and when you figure in the very powerful culinary union there has 93% of workers out of jobs from COVID...that probably leans right. 

Ez_Uzi

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2020, 02:01:00 PM »
Agreed. The libertarian party is not only weak but also WOKE leaning. That in itself will send those voters towards Trump. Overall I don't see a clear or compelling democrat policy agenda which seems to lay emphasis on a perceived racial divide, removing statues and defunding the police, and that just won't cut it. On Trump's side, the policy agenda is clear and detailed, whether one likes the agenda or not. Finally, and historically, America also tends to lean right following civil strife.

cjfish

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2020, 10:25:38 AM »
Biden’s position in the center will draw reasonable people away from Trump, particularly suburban women. The left has nowhere else to go and their justified hatred of trump will bring record numbers to the poles. Unlike 2016 Bernie and other leftists will back Biden aggressively due to this hatred. Nobody staying home this time  and a good turnout means a democrat victory. Trump knows this which he is doing everything in his power to suppress the vote and set up a scenario to contest the election. I notice many of you babble about socialist/communist influence. The right has been shouting about this since McCarthy. They have no real influence, Biden will throw them a few crumbs but they will have no real influence. Control of the center is what controls elections and Biden clearly has it. The real danger is the armed extreme right who will be a problem when trump loses

Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2020, 12:32:16 PM »
Biden’s position in the center will draw reasonable people away from Trump, particularly suburban women. The left has nowhere else to go and their justified hatred of trump will bring record numbers to the poles. Unlike 2016 Bernie and other leftists will back Biden aggressively due to this hatred. Nobody staying home this time  and a good turnout means a democrat victory. Trump knows this which he is doing everything in his power to suppress the vote and set up a scenario to contest the election. I notice many of you babble about socialist/communist influence. The right has been shouting about this since McCarthy. They have no real influence, Biden will throw them a few crumbs but they will have no real influence. Control of the center is what controls elections and Biden clearly has it. The real danger is the armed extreme right who will be a problem when trump loses
Medications not working I see.

Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2020, 05:26:39 PM »
Cuomo and De Blasio have really painted themselves into a poor corner. The nonsensical continuous bashing of President Trump is sophomoric and self destruction. The Senate notices it, McConnell in no rush to fund municipalities. With Sandy Cortez, Gerald Nadler and Chuck Schumer, these is zero motivation for a Republican to reach across the aisle to help New York.

These two clowns are betting on the less likely outcome; [1] the Democrats will be keeping the House and [2] Biden is beating Trump. That gets them their bloated bailouts.  The more likely outcome is [1] Republicans retake the House and [2] Trump wins White House.

As a lifelong New Yorker, I hope Washington doesnt give New York a penny. Let this shithole go bankrupt and let Cuomo and de Blasio wallow in it.

Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2020, 07:36:26 PM »
Cuomo and De Blasio have really painted themselves into a poor corner. The nonsensical continuous bashing of President Trump is sophomoric and self destruction. The Senate notices it, McConnell in no rush to fund municipalities. With Sandy Cortez, Gerald Nadler and Chuck Schumer, these is zero motivation for a Republican to reach across the aisle to help New York.

These two clowns are betting on the less likely outcome; [1] the Democrats will be keeping the House and [2] Biden is beating Trump. That gets them their bloated bailouts.  The more likely outcome is [1] Republicans retake the House and [2] Trump wins White House.

As a lifelong New Yorker, I hope Washington doesnt give New York a penny. Let this shithole go bankrupt and let Cuomo and de Blasio wallow in it.
Cuomo basically threatened Trump by saying if he comes to NY bodyguards won't be enough to protect him he will need an army. Secret Service should be investigating Cuomo's ass!

Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2020, 07:49:22 PM »
In the Constitution, Federal troops can legally arrest a governor and remove a high ranking official like a mayor. Those two clowns knew that when they declined Federal troops for the riots. Notice, the riots subsided shortly thereafter.

True. Cuomo basically threatened the life of the President of the United States. Maybe the nipple rings are irritating with the nursing home crimes not going away.

Marillac

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2020, 11:31:41 PM »
Agreed. The libertarian party is not only weak but also WOKE leaning. That in itself will send those voters towards Trump. Overall I don't see a clear or compelling democrat policy agenda which seems to lay emphasis on a perceived racial divide, removing statues and defunding the police, and that just won't cut it. On Trump's side, the policy agenda is clear and detailed, whether one likes the agenda or not. Finally, and historically, America also tends to lean right following civil strife.

The Dems put all their eggs in the BLM basket.  It's such a puzzling strategy because Biden was wildly popular with cops and Kamala has an egregious record as a prosecutor -- not only putting thousands of blacks behind bars for drug offenses but also fighting the release of exculpatory evidence for them to use on appeal.  What is the reward for going in so hard on BLM?  Who are their  supporters going to vote for if not Biden/Harris.  Their entire identity has been being anti-Trump for four years.

The Dems should have hammered Trump on his Mexican comments like they did in 2016.  It was brought up daily.  You haven't heard a word about that.  In fact, Dems don't even seem to be spending any attention on the Hispanic vote.  That's a huge mistake.  Bush got over 40% of the Hispanic vote and Trump only got 28%.  That number will creep closer to 40% (I'm guessing 33-35%).

I think this will election should marka turning point for both parties.  I see Hispanic and Asian voters being the base of the republican party as early as 2028 with a 50/50 split by 2024. Both groups are generally high on family values and detest violence. As for the Dems, are they going to keep banging the identity politics and BLM drums after two consecutive losses to Donald Trump?  If you can't beat someone like Trump with that message how do you expect to beat what is sure to be a minority republican candidate in 2024?

cjfish

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2020, 11:41:44 AM »
 I laugh at those of you defending  chump and thinking he will be reelected.  Logic is not your strongpoint.  The country is in chaos, thousands of people are dying and yet idiots support him.  His lack of action and poor attitude have made us an international medical pariah. 4% of the world's population, 20%+ of the world's deaths and infections....the only real issue and one which should send him packing.  Involuntary manslaughter.   

Foad

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Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2020, 01:23:05 PM »
I laugh at those of you defending  chump and thinking he will be reelected.  Logic is not your strongpoint.  The country is in chaos, thousands of people are dying and yet idiots support him.  His lack of action and poor attitude have made us an international medical pariah. 4% of the world's population, 20%+ of the world's deaths and infections....the only real issue and one which should send him packing.  Involuntary manslaughter.   

Im a centrist

Re: 2020 Election
« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2020, 04:38:14 PM »
I laugh at those of you defending  chump and thinking he will be reelected.  Logic is not your strongpoint.  The country is in chaos, thousands of people are dying and yet idiots support him.  His lack of action and poor attitude have made us an international medical pariah. 4% of the world's population, 20%+ of the world's deaths and infections....the only real issue and one which should send him packing.  Involuntary manslaughter.   
Country is in chaos thanks to the leftist socialists. Policing hasn't changed from what it has always been including under Obama but now we have rioting and looting in democrat lead cities so can't blame Trump.