6th Man of St. John's Basketball
St. John's Red Storm => In The Jungle... => Topic started by: paultzman on June 19, 2015, 12:39:32 PM
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3. St. John's fans should temper their expectations
"The buzz surrounding the Red Storm program has been beyond palpable since Chris Mullin was hired as head coach and that's for good reason. The St. John's staff has done an unbelievable job filling out its roster during the Spring recruiting period and Mullin's presence at his alma mater has given Red Storm fans the type of nostalgic feel that they've craved for years. But that doesn't mean this team should be expected to be finish in top half of the Big East this season or next.
St. John's is going to get players under Mullin, but people need to remember Steve Lavin also got players when he first arrived in Jamaica and it took him until his fifth year to reach the NCAA Tournament with a group that was ranked as a top-five recruiting class when they were incoming freshman. It takes time to build a program in college basketball and while Red Storm fans don't want to be patient, they're going to have to be. The roster that Mullin inherited was beyond depleted (lost five of top six scorers) when he took over in March and it's going to take two to three quality recruiting classes to get this program to the point where it can expect to be a perennial contender in the Big East."
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25219492/observations-timberwolves-should-grab-kentuckys-karl-anthony-towns-with-top-pick
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I had some high expectations early on, but that was with Jordan and Obekpa on board. We might take our lumps, but we are in great hands from top to bottom. Future is bright
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Over/Under set at 15 wins. Ill lean under.
Zero expectations for next year. Young, inexperienced roster and a coach even less experienced.
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Over/Under set at 15 wins. Ill lean under.
Zero expectations for next year. Young, inexperienced roster and a coach even less experienced.
Quite fair, we'll see.
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No excuses. Win and win often or gtfo! :)
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Brings up an interesting question. Obviously, next year is starting over, so expectations should be low. What will be considered a success over the next 5 years? Definitely has to be better than Lavin, I would say 3 NCAA tourney bids. Wins in the tourney are a bit of a crapshoot, but I think we have to make it to the second weekend twice.
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Brings up an interesting question. Obviously, next year is starting over, so expectations should be low. What will be considered a success over the next 5 years? Definitely has to be better than Lavin, I would say 3 NCAA tourney bids. Wins in the tourney are a bit of a crapshoot, but I think we have to make it to the second weekend twice.
unless we get a couple of studs this recruiting season, i have a hard time thinking we'll make the tourney in 16/17 season. 3rd year on, we should be a steady/consistent ncaa team. 3rd year staff should have a good consistent reputation and foundation in place.
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Brings up an interesting question. Obviously, next year is starting over, so expectations should be low. What will be considered a success over the next 5 years? Definitely has to be better than Lavin, I would say 3 NCAA tourney bids. Wins in the tourney are a bit of a crapshoot, but I think we have to make it to the second weekend twice.
I think making the Tourney 2 of the final 3 years, with significant player improvement throughout and good recruiting classes would be seen as a success. Even if we lose first round. Mullin should pretty much get a pass for the first 2 years other than wanting to see players improve, good recruiting, and our team playing hard at all times.
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He's leaving out one huge variable in that article. Mullin may turn out to be a very good first time HC. People thought it would take Hoiberg a long time at ISU and he never was a HC a day in his life before taking that job. He turned them into an annual top 20 team rather quickly. Just look at Steve Kerr, another first time HC at any level. I'll bet on Mullin following these two in terms of quick success. The writer is also not making note of another important factor. Lavin can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
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Has any one other than the redmen poster heard anything definitive re. CO?
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The writer is also not making note of another important factor. Lavin can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
I would never call Lavin a great game coach but he isn't as bad as you are alluding too. Guy has had 9 seasons with 20+ wins in major conferences.
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The writer is also not making note of another important factor. Lavin can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
I would never call Lavin a great game coach but he isn't as bad as you are alluding too. Guy has had 9 seasons with 20+ wins in major conferences.
20+ win seasons aren't what they used to be with the amount of games these teams play now and the season starting several weeks before Thanskgiving.
Lavin also had some of the best talent in the country while at UCLA (top 5-8 national talent every year for almost his entire tenure there). I wouldn't even call him a decent in-game coach. He looks lost on the sidelines. His personality, salesmanship and likeability are the main reasons why he continues to get looks as a college HC IMO. I think he's very good in those areas.
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The writer is also not making note of another important factor. Lavin can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
I would never call Lavin a great game coach but he isn't as bad as you are alluding too. Guy has had 9 seasons with 20+ wins in major conferences.
20+ win seasons aren't what they used to be with the amount of games these teams play now and the season starting several weeks before Thanskgiving.
Lavin also had some of the best talent in the country while at UCLA (top 5-8 national talent every year for almost his entire tenure there). I wouldn't even call him a decent in-game coach. He looks lost on the sidelines. His personality, salesmanship and likeability are the main reasons why he continues to get looks as a college HC IMO. I think he's very good in those areas.
I'm hoping Mullin has the same success Lavin has had to date.
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The writer is also not making note of another important factor. Lavin can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
I would never call Lavin a great game coach but he isn't as bad as you are alluding too. Guy has had 9 seasons with 20+ wins in major conferences.
20+ win seasons aren't what they used to be with the amount of games these teams play now and the season starting several weeks before Thanskgiving.
Lavin also had some of the best talent in the country while at UCLA (top 5-8 national talent every year for almost his entire tenure there). I wouldn't even call him a decent in-game coach. He looks lost on the sidelines. His personality, salesmanship and likeability are the main reasons why he continues to get looks as a college HC IMO. I think he's very good in those areas.
I'm hoping Mullin has the same success Lavin has had to date.
Which was 2 NCAA's (0-2), and 2 NITs (1-2)? Please don't insult Mullin.
Is that all you think he's capable of?
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I nice run in the NIT this year would be a good season I think. Hopefully we can be a bubble team but we would have to get Mussini and Papa G both for that to be a possibility most likely. Too many players with no experience and a brand new head coach. Has to be some growing pains.
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If Sima and Lovett are eligible, and if Mussini commits, we will win more than 10 games. Marquette last year is what I think we are looking at.
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Well, what's the goal? I personally think the goal should to develop the type of program that Jay Wright has at Nova. To get there, he endured 3 mediocre years, including a losing season, then went on to appear in the NCAAs 10 of the last 11 years.
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If Sima and Lovett are eligible, and if Mussini commits, we will win more than 10 games. Marquette last year is what I think we are looking at.
Agree
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Well, what's the goal? I personally think the goal should to develop the type of program that Jay Wright has at Nova. To get there, he endured 3 mediocre years, including a losing season, then went on to appear in the NCAAs 10 of the last 11 years.
That would be great but it's a little ambitious. Make the tournament 3 out of every 4 years. In the year we don't, stay relevant throughout the whole season. 1 of the 3 years in the dance, make the second weekend and be a real contender. Do that for a decade under Mullin and hand the keys to the right guy to elevate the program from there.
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The writer is also not making note of another important factor. Lavin can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
I would never call Lavin a great game coach but he isn't as bad as you are alluding too. Guy has had 9 seasons with 20+ wins in major conferences.
20+ win seasons aren't what they used to be with the amount of games these teams play now and the season starting several weeks before Thanskgiving.
Lavin also had some of the best talent in the country while at UCLA (top 5-8 national talent every year for almost his entire tenure there). I wouldn't even call him a decent in-game coach. He looks lost on the sidelines. His personality, salesmanship and likeability are the main reasons why he continues to get looks as a college HC IMO. I think he's very good in those areas.
I'm hoping Mullin has the same success Lavin has had to date.
Your hopes aren't too lofty.
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The writer is also not making note of another important factor. Lavin can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
I would never call Lavin a great game coach but he isn't as bad as you are alluding too. Guy has had 9 seasons with 20+ wins in major conferences.
20+ win seasons aren't what they used to be with the amount of games these teams play now and the season starting several weeks before Thanskgiving.
Lavin also had some of the best talent in the country while at UCLA (top 5-8 national talent every year for almost his entire tenure there). I wouldn't even call him a decent in-game coach. He looks lost on the sidelines. His personality, salesmanship and likeability are the main reasons why he continues to get looks as a college HC IMO. I think he's very good in those areas.
I'm hoping Mullin has the same success Lavin has had to date.
Which was 2 NCAA's (0-2), and 2 NITs (1-2)? Please don't insult Mullin.
Is that all you think he's capable of?
He's referring to his overall record. That wasn't hard to figure out. But....
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The writer is also not making note of another important factor. Lavin can't coach his way out of a paper bag.
I would never call Lavin a great game coach but he isn't as bad as you are alluding too. Guy has had 9 seasons with 20+ wins in major conferences.
20+ win seasons aren't what they used to be with the amount of games these teams play now and the season starting several weeks before Thanskgiving.
Lavin also had some of the best talent in the country while at UCLA (top 5-8 national talent every year for almost his entire tenure there). I wouldn't even call him a decent in-game coach. He looks lost on the sidelines. His personality, salesmanship and likeability are the main reasons why he continues to get looks as a college HC IMO. I think he's very good in those areas.
I'm hoping Mullin has the same success Lavin has had to date.
Your hopes aren't too lofty.
Overall record, as I mentioned above.
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Rothstein on Johnnies this year;
@JonRothstein: A .500 season would warrant a parade. #sjubb https://t.co/7hennZ30qK
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Rothstein on Johnnies this year;
@JonRothstein: A .500 season would warrant a parade. #sjubb https://t.co/7hennZ30qK
With our current roster I don't think that a .500 or slightly below season is too far off. Add Mussini and Rowan and we will be solid. We lack scoring and experience right now, will be a tough but fun season I think. A lot of really good young players with Lovett, Ellison, Sima, Williams and possibly Mussini and Rowan.
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Depending on who we add, but I think we can potentially be decent depending. Still need another big if possible. Add Mussini and Rowan and we have scoring ability from all spots. We will definitely be super young and inexperienced, but will have some international players who have some experience as well as a juco, and two senior transfers. Durand Johnson is a starting Big East forward for most teams. I don't think we will light the world on fire but might be better than some think because of our scoring and shooting ability.
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We are going to suck so bad. :(
The recruiting wisardry of Matt and Slice is going to be put to a major test. Hoping the hype is legit and that these two are up to the task. It's our only hope. :-\
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We are going to suck so bad. :(
The recruiting wisardry of Matt and Slice is going to be put to a major test. Hoping the hype is legit and that these two are up to the task. It's our only hope. :-\
Judging them over next three years, not year one seems fair.
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We are going to suck so bad. :(
The recruiting wisardry of Matt and Slice is going to be put to a major test. Hoping the hype is legit and that these two are up to the task. It's our only hope. :-\
Judging them over next three years, not year one seems fair.
At least three years. Norm got 6 and Hollywood got 5? They'll get that and more. It's THE living legend for goodness sake.
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We are going to suck so bad. :(
The recruiting wisardry of Matt and Slice is going to be put to a major test. Hoping the hype is legit and that these two are up to the task. It's our only hope. :-\
Judging them over next three years, not year one seems fair.
At least three years. Norm got 6 and Hollywood got 5? They'll get that and more. It's THE living legend for goodness sake.
So if after six years he's had the same success (or lack thereof) that norm freaking Roberts had we should just keep him around because he was our best player? I understand mullin mania and everyone is still on a high but if that would be the case I'd hope the powers that be wouldn't be wearing the same blinders. A longer termed norm Roberts would be a step back for this program right now, I hope that's obvious. That said I don't think that'll be even remotely the case just saying it's a potentially dangerous way of thinking long term.
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If the 2011-12 Dunlap-coached team had Durand Johnson and some bench depth in addition to the incoming freshmen, would that team have been .500? I think we are looking at 15 wins with Mussini Rowan and everyone eligible and healthy.
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@BSnowScout: Still some roster questions for St. John's in short term, but if they can close on local 2016 prospects could be a quick re-build for Mullin
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So if after six years he's had the same success (or lack thereof) that norm freaking Roberts had we should just keep him around because he was our best player?
Yes.
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So if after six years he's had the same success (or lack thereof) that norm freaking Roberts had we should just keep him around because he was our best player?
Yes.
yikes…… I mean I like Chris Mullin but i like the program and my alma mater a lot more and i wouldnt sacrifice the latter for the former. This is a pivotal juncture for SJU hoops and a longer termed norm robert’s level of success, at his point, would set us back decades potentially. Hopefully it never comes to that and again, i dont expect it to. guess i just underestimated the depth of the “MULLIN MANIA” rabbit hole.
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The 2011-2012 team went 13-19 in the old Big East (and Nuri lost another at the foul line). They played @Kentucky (national champs), @Duke, Arizona, UCLA, @Detroitt, St. Mary's, and Texas A&M. That team only had seven guys on the roster after Nuri took off and was replaced by Garrett upon graduating high school in December. Those guys had no depth--they couldn't even have ten scholarship guys on the court at once in practice--literally almost no experience outside of Stith, no size, no true PG, and woeful shooting. I think that team gives us a good measuring stick for the bottom of what to expect. Give those guys a 6'9 240 soph like AA, a pair of good shooting 5th-year grad transfers like Johnson and M'Vouika and two seniors for depth like Balamou and Jones, and I think they would have won 16-18 games and made the NIT.
This team is clearly better. The Big East is weaker, they have four seniors, they have more size (albeit still clearly lacking another capable center), the depth is exponentially better, and, outside of one of Lovett or Mussini, they don't HAVE to live and die by a freshman.
As the roster stands now, I think 16 wins with an understanding that we have an amazing staff that is building for the future is a fair and reasonable expectation. If everyone is eligible and they sign Rowan and a capable center (or AA dramatically improves), that expectation goes up to bubble team. Ideally I'd like to see Sima play no more than 10-15 mpg and Jones no more than 5-7, but we may not have the luxury.
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We have been tempering expectation for most of the last 15 years. Best I can tell SJU is bring in 3**** & 3*** one of the **** Owens will have to sit out this year. We are still in play for a ***** and a****. This is in addition 2 senior transfers. Should we sign the 5 star and the 4 star I would expect sweet 16
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My expectations are that we will be competitive - really won't know until they play. The 2011 class was more heralded than this one and won 13 games. Granted, that was a very thin team and a much younger team, but to expect a group of guys who have never played together to be one of the best 16 teams in basketball is a big reach. We are...not Kentucky.
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If CM can get out of this team 18 or more wins this season, that would exceed my expectations.
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Realistically, I think we just have a right to expect that the team competes in every game and gets better and better as the season progresses. And that we can see real potential to be at least a bubble team the following year.
Naturally, I hope for much more.
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If we can nab Pappa and Rowan ,and IF everybody qualifies, I think we will be better than a lot of people think.
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If we can nab Pappa and Rowan ,and IF everybody qualifies, I think we will be better than a lot of people think.
really?
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If we can nab Pappa and Rowan ,and IF everybody qualifies, I think we will be better than a lot of people think.
In that scenario, it will be interesting to see coach manage the rotation. We would have serious depth, young players who need developmental minutes, and not a tremendous amount of talent dispersion.