2 Losses for 1 Win

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derk

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2013, 10:11:05 AM »
Two bad losses always hurt more then one upset win helps. In this world people ( I think that includes the NCAA selection committee or anything associated with the NCAA) are always looking to knock teams out, rather then lift them up. Their job is to knock teams out until the last 68 (? is that what the number is ) are left. It's not that you get selected but that you don't get rejected. Asking that question to members of this board is different then asking the selection committee. We will always take an upset over Syracuse, Pukon, L'Ville etc because the hurt runs deep. But that doesn't put us in a better position to not get rejected.

paultzman

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2013, 10:14:15 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

derk

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2013, 10:18:31 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

paultzman

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2013, 10:21:05 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Thus the words, "tourney aside".

Moose

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2013, 10:21:16 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Never said it would erase.  The question is would it offset.
Remember who broke the Slice news

sju89tr

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2013, 10:22:38 AM »
Two bad losses always hurt more then one upset win helps. In this world people ( I think that includes the NCAA selection committee or anything associated with the NCAA) are always looking to knock teams out, rather then lift them up. Their job is to knock teams out until the last 68 (? is that what the number is ) are left. It's not that you get selected but that you don't get rejected. Asking that question to members of this board is different then asking the selection committee. We will always take an upset over Syracuse, Pukon, L'Ville etc because the hurt runs deep. But that doesn't put us in a better position to not get rejected.

Do not agree, we lost 2 really bad games in 2010 and made the tournament. We did however go 12-6 in Big East with a lot of signature wins. This year we have 2 bad losses but won't have the luxury of as many good Big East wins unless we beat either Cuse or Louisville and win all the other games we have a chance.

Is it possible we do the following:
Beat Hall
Beat DePaul
Loss at  Georgetown but we really could avenge our home loss if we want to make a statement
Beat UCONN
Lose to Syracuse
Lose to Louisville
Beat USF
Win at Home to Pitt
Beat Providence
Lose at Notre Dame
Win at Home vs Marquette

That would put us at 11-7 in Big East and we make tourney even if we just win one BET game. I think anything can happen rest of the way if we take care of business. Got to win 2/3 of the Georgetown, Pitt, and Marquette games.


MCNPA

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2013, 10:23:54 AM »
Two bad losses always hurt more then one upset win helps. In this world people ( I think that includes the NCAA selection committee or anything associated with the NCAA) are always looking to knock teams out, rather then lift them up. Their job is to knock teams out until the last 68 (? is that what the number is ) are left. It's not that you get selected but that you don't get rejected. Asking that question to members of this board is different then asking the selection committee. We will always take an upset over Syracuse, Pukon, L'Ville etc because the hurt runs deep. But that doesn't put us in a better position to not get rejected.

Do not agree, we lost 2 really bad games in 2010 and made the tournament. We did however go 12-6 in Big East with a lot of signature wins. This year we have 2 bad losses but won't have the luxury of as many good Big East wins unless we beat either Cuse or Louisville and win all the other games we have a chance.

Is it possible we do the following:
Beat Hall
Beat DePaul
Loss at  Georgetown but we really could avenge our home loss if we want to make a statement
Beat UCONN
Lose to Syracuse
Lose to Louisville
Beat USF
Win at Home to Pitt
Beat Providence
Lose at Notre Dame
Win at Home vs Marquette

That would put us at 11-7 in Big East and we make tourney even if we just win one BET game. I think anything can happen rest of the way if we take care of business. Got to win 2/3 of the Georgetown, Pitt, and Marquette games.

I think that is reasonable.  Neither Marquette nor Pitt is unbeatable. 

Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2013, 10:27:57 AM »
Path dependency doesn't matter much IMO (other than DePaul @ home - that would be a "bad loss").  Get to 20 wins and we are strong bubble at the worst.  Our SOS currently is 20th and RPI is 55.  Everyone in that range has a blemish or two on their tournament resume.

derk

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2013, 10:30:32 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Never said it would erase.  The question is would it offset.

No. Two bad losses win out over one big win in the eyes of the selection committee, if not SJU fans. Again, committee looks for ways to eliminate. Whoever is left standing gets in.

derk

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #29 on: January 25, 2013, 10:31:36 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Thus the words, "tourney aside".

Thus the word "agree".

Moose

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #30 on: January 25, 2013, 10:39:02 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Never said it would erase.  The question is would it offset.


No. Two bad losses win out over one big win in the eyes of the selection committee, if not SJU fans. Again, committee looks for ways to eliminate. Whoever is left standing gets in.

Disagree.  Unless you are in the room when they pick not sure how you could say that so definitively.  There is a reason RPI is shown with good wins AND bad losses.  As both are considered and scrutinized.

Even if you still feel one win against such a big team doesn't erase 2 bad losses, it sure as heck replaces one of the losses as its a game we weren't going to win.
Remember who broke the Slice news

Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #31 on: January 25, 2013, 11:31:37 AM »
Early season losses are easily offset by late season wins.  How a team is playing come selection time is a factor that the committee considers.

derk

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #32 on: January 25, 2013, 11:35:41 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Never said it would erase.  The question is would it offset.


No. Two bad losses win out over one big win in the eyes of the selection committee, if not SJU fans. Again, committee looks for ways to eliminate. Whoever is left standing gets in.

Disagree.  Unless you are in the room when they pick not sure how you could say that so definitively.  There is a reason RPI is shown with good wins AND bad losses.  As both are considered and scrutinized.

Even if you still feel one win against such a big team doesn't erase 2 bad losses, it sure as heck replaces one of the losses as its a game we weren't going to win.

Maybe my life experience, but people faced with a decision between two very close choices usually look for a way to eliminate rather then select. It's a subtle psychological difference but I think it happens that way more then not.

Moose

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #33 on: January 25, 2013, 11:36:37 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Never said it would erase.  The question is would it offset.


No. Two bad losses win out over one big win in the eyes of the selection committee, if not SJU fans. Again, committee looks for ways to eliminate. Whoever is left standing gets in.

Disagree.  Unless you are in the room when they pick not sure how you could say that so definitively.  There is a reason RPI is shown with good wins AND bad losses.  As both are considered and scrutinized.

Even if you still feel one win against such a big team doesn't erase 2 bad losses, it sure as heck replaces one of the losses as its a game we weren't going to win.

Maybe my life experience, but people faced with a decision between two very close choices usually look for a way to eliminate rather then select. It's a subtle psychological difference but I think it happens that way more then not.

Oy vey haha
Remember who broke the Slice news

derk

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #34 on: January 25, 2013, 11:41:23 AM »
Early season losses are easily offset by late season wins.  How a team is playing come selection time is a factor that the committee considers.

Yes, there are many factors that the committee considers. If you assume a committee is looking for a reason to select us, then you're right. My point is they're not. They're looking for a reason to eliminate us or any other school for that matter. Last man standing wins.

derk

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #35 on: January 25, 2013, 11:42:39 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Never said it would erase.  The question is would it offset.


No. Two bad losses win out over one big win in the eyes of the selection committee, if not SJU fans. Again, committee looks for ways to eliminate. Whoever is left standing gets in.

Disagree.  Unless you are in the room when they pick not sure how you could say that so definitively.  There is a reason RPI is shown with good wins AND bad losses.  As both are considered and scrutinized.

Even if you still feel one win against such a big team doesn't erase 2 bad losses, it sure as heck replaces one of the losses as its a game we weren't going to win.

Maybe my life experience, but people faced with a decision between two very close choices usually look for a way to eliminate rather then select. It's a subtle psychological difference but I think it happens that way more then not.

Oy vey haha

Didn't know you were Jewish  :)

Moose

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #36 on: January 25, 2013, 11:44:59 AM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Agree, but it doesn't erase two reasons to not get selected.

Never said it would erase.  The question is would it offset.


No. Two bad losses win out over one big win in the eyes of the selection committee, if not SJU fans. Again, committee looks for ways to eliminate. Whoever is left standing gets in.

Disagree.  Unless you are in the room when they pick not sure how you could say that so definitively.  There is a reason RPI is shown with good wins AND bad losses.  As both are considered and scrutinized.

Even if you still feel one win against such a big team doesn't erase 2 bad losses, it sure as heck replaces one of the losses as its a game we weren't going to win.

Maybe my life experience, but people faced with a decision between two very close choices usually look for a way to eliminate rather then select. It's a subtle psychological difference but I think it happens that way more then not.

Oy vey haha

Didn't know you were Jewish  :)

I'm not haha
Remember who broke the Slice news

crgreen

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Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #37 on: January 25, 2013, 12:51:17 PM »
Unfortunately, unless Lavin made some deal with the Devil, I'm not sure it works that way.  I appreciate the optimism, but when it comes tourney time, those will be listed on our "bad losses" section if we are on the bubble.  We need a big time win or two to counteract those losses.

Actually, historically, that is the Deal that Steve seems to have worked out. Early season losses to lesser opponents, leading to late season knock outs of top ranked opponents.   Bruin fans called it "luck" - but after having it happen 9 straight years (even his 10-18 final ucla season, that 10th win was knocking national #1 ranked Arizona out of the Pac 10 tournament),  he's either the luckiest SOB in the history of coaching, or it's actually the way his styple of coaching works...and you know, EITHER of those explanations is a positive for SJU!  :)

Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #38 on: January 25, 2013, 09:10:18 PM »
IMO, tourney aside, SJU knocking off a top team later in season results in great media attention, validation of a program on the rise and positively effecting recruiting.

Yep....Down the stretch results definitely help

Re: 2 Losses for 1 Win
« Reply #39 on: January 26, 2013, 01:32:22 PM »
Unfortunately, unless Lavin made some deal with the Devil, I'm not sure it works that way.  I appreciate the optimism, but when it comes tourney time, those will be listed on our "bad losses" section if we are on the bubble.  We need a big time win or two to counteract those losses.

Actually, historically, that is the Deal that Steve seems to have worked out. Early season losses to lesser opponents, leading to late season knock outs of top ranked opponents.   Bruin fans called it "luck" - but after having it happen 9 straight years (even his 10-18 final ucla season, that 10th win was knocking national #1 ranked Arizona out of the Pac 10 tournament),  he's either the luckiest SOB in the history of coaching, or it's actually the way his styple of coaching works...and you know, EITHER of those explanations is a positive for SJU!  :)

I remember you stating this pattern a couple of years ago – his teams will lose a game or two they shouldn't early in the year and win an unexpected one late. It's been amazing to see how true that has been.

I hope it holds this year. I would relish a beat down of Syracuse on their way out the door.