Fun with numbers

All stats according to KenPom:

--St John's adjusted efficiency in 2016 for all 32 games played - 211   (Off: 302) (Def: 122)

St. John's adjusted efficiency in 2017 thru 25 games played - 90   (Off: 93) (Def: 113)

This means on a neutral court, KP would have us favored against all but 89 other division I basketball teams.

--Bashir Ahmed is 17th in the conference in offensive efficiency among all players who have used 24% or more of their teams' possessions this season.

There are 17 players in the conference who have used 24% or more of their teams' possessions this season.

13-16 on that list have an offensive rating between 99.8 and 100.9. Ahmed = 95.8

Of 31 players using over 20% of their teams' possessions this season, Ahmed is 31st.

--Among all BE players, Tariq Owens is 8th and 5th in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, respectively.

This is the list of all BE players who are top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage:

Ismael Sanogo
Angel Delgado
Rashid Gaston
Tariq Owens

-St. John's has five players ranked in the top 30 in 3P%.

The list of BE teams with five players ranked in the top 30 in 3P%:
St. John's

(Villanova and Marquette each have 4)


Conclusion:  We have made a lot of progress from last year to this year, specifically offensively.  Bashir Ahmed has been terrible on offense.  Tariq Owens is a good rebounder.  We are a really good 3P shooting team, and this has been proven to be an effective way to win games (Villanova and Marquette)

Bashir Ahmed has been terrible on offense.   

Bashir Ahmed has not been terrible on offense.  In fact he's been better than one of our best and most beloved players ever:

Bashir Ahmed - 39% from the field; 37% from 3

Marcus Hatten - 38% from the field; 28% from 3

Quote from: LoganK on February 09, 2017, 08:41:08 PM

Bashir Ahmed has been terrible on offense.   

Bashir Ahmed has not been terrible on offense.  In fact he's been better than one of our best and most beloved players ever:

Bashir Ahmed - 39% from the field; 37% from 3

Marcus Hatten - 38% from the field; 28% from 3

Assuming you are using Hatten's first year here: Hatten shot 44% from 2 and 28% from 3.  Ahmed is shooting 41% from 2 and 37% from 3.  Hatten also took a larger % of 2 pointers than Ahmed.  Hatten's assist rate was 29% (good for top 100 in the country) compared to Ahmed's 9.5% (black hole).  While Hatten was not a very efficient player, he was still comfortably better than Ahmed.

That said, next year I expect Ahmed to improve his efficiency (just like Hatten did) and close the gap between the two players.  If he can just learn to pass the ball..

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 10, 2017, 04:19:20 AM

Quote from: LoganK on February 09, 2017, 08:41:08 PM

Bashir Ahmed has been terrible on offense.   

Bashir Ahmed has not been terrible on offense.  In fact he's been better than one of our best and most beloved players ever:

Bashir Ahmed - 39% from the field; 37% from 3

Marcus Hatten - 38% from the field; 28% from 3

Assuming you are using Hatten's first year here: Hatten shot 44% from 2 and 28% from 3.  Ahmed is shooting 41% from 2 and 37% from 3.  Hatten also took a larger % of 2 pointers than Ahmed.  Hatten's assist rate was 29% (good for top 100 in the country) compared to Ahmed's 9.5% (black hole).  While Hatten was not a very efficient player, he was still comfortably better than Ahmed.

That said, next year I expect Ahmed to improve his efficiency (just like Hatten did) and close the gap between the two players.  If he can just learn to pass the ball..

Marcus Hatten was a top ten and probably top five player at Saint John's in my lifetime. If your statistics say anything about Hatten other than that your statistics are pointless and dumb. Similarly pointless and dumb is comparing Ahmed to Hatten, for reasons that should be obvious but maybe I'd better mention them anyway. In the first place, Hatten was a PG and Ahmed is not; and in the second the only players who will be flattered by a comparison to Hatten are players who were as great as Hatten was and Ahmed is no Hatten.

IN any event whatever metrics your pointless and dumb statistic measures - the square root of offensive possessions divided by field goal percentage times assists minus defensive rebounds squared plus turnovers to the eighth power, don't know don't care - your conclusion is false. Ahmed has not "been terrible on offense." The correct formulation would be "Bashir Ahmed has been terrible on offense according to this statistic that I think is important and other people think is pointless and dumb" Because Ahmed is averaging 13 points and 5 rebounds per game, which depending on the circumstances is somewhere between adequate and spectacular. For example that terrible output is similar to Jakarr Sampson's terrible numbers. Sampson was as I recall also terrible and a cancer, except he managed to metastasize himself into the NBA.

Those numbers are also similar to any number of well regarded SJU players: Shelton Jones averaged 14 and 8 as a junior; Lavar Postell averaged 13 and 6 as a junior; Artest averaged 14 and 6 as a soph; Willie Glass averaged 16 and 6 as a senior. Those guys were NBA draft picks. None of them were forced into a feature role because they played on one of the least experienced team in the country. Mo Harkless otoh played on a very inexperienced team that lost a shitton of games: he averaged 15 and 8 and was a lottery pick.

Ahmed is averaging ~ 16 and 6 over his past half dozen games, half a year into his college career, in what is allegedly the best basketball conference in the country - this while playing out of position. All last year I heard about how poor Federico Missini was playing out of position and what a brave wittle twooper he was. Well, Ahmed's a SF in a perfect world and playing out of position he's averaging about what this SF did in his first year

13 points / 6 rebounds / 2 assists / 48 fg / 20 3pt

versus

13 points / 5 rebounds / 1 assist / 39 fg / 37 3 pt


The numbers are eerily similar, the only significance between them being about a turnover per game, this guy being Malik Sealy. Pray tell what do Ken Pom's mystery statistics say about Malik Sealy? Oh that's right, IDGAF.

Ahmed is a bit out of control although less so now and isn't much of a passer. I don't need Ken Pom to tell me that because I have eyes. Also because I have eyes I know that if we had a couple three more players who were as "terrible on offense" as Ahmed is we might have won a couple more games.

PS Tariq Owens is not a "good" rebounder. In fact, Tariq Owens is a not very good rebounder, for a guy who's nearly seven feet tall. Shamorie Ponds and Marcus Lovett are good rebounders. Ask Ken Pom what he thinks about that.

Quote from: LoganK on February 10, 2017, 06:42:22 AM

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 10, 2017, 04:19:20 AM

Quote from: LoganK on February 09, 2017, 08:41:08 PM

Bashir Ahmed has been terrible on offense.   

Bashir Ahmed has not been terrible on offense.  In fact he's been better than one of our best and most beloved players ever:

Bashir Ahmed - 39% from the field; 37% from 3

Marcus Hatten - 38% from the field; 28% from 3

Assuming you are using Hatten's first year here: Hatten shot 44% from 2 and 28% from 3.  Ahmed is shooting 41% from 2 and 37% from 3.  Hatten also took a larger % of 2 pointers than Ahmed.  Hatten's assist rate was 29% (good for top 100 in the country) compared to Ahmed's 9.5% (black hole).  While Hatten was not a very efficient player, he was still comfortably better than Ahmed.

That said, next year I expect Ahmed to improve his efficiency (just like Hatten did) and close the gap between the two players.  If he can just learn to pass the ball..

Marcus Hatten was a top ten and probably top five player at Saint John's in my lifetime. If your statistics say anything about Hatten other than that your statistics are pointless and dumb. Similarly pointless and dumb is comparing Ahmed to Hatten, for reasons that should be obvious but maybe I'd better mention them anyway. In the first place, Hatten was a PG and Ahmed is not; and in the second the only players who will be flattered by a comparison to Hatten are players who were as great as Hatten was and Ahmed is no Hatten.

IN any event whatever metrics your pointless and dumb statistic measures - the square root of offensive possessions divided by field goal percentage times assists minus defensive rebounds squared plus turnovers to the eighth power, don't know don't care - your conclusion is false. Ahmed has not "been terrible on offense." The correct formulation would be "Bashir Ahmed has been terrible on offense according to this statistic that I think is important and other people think is pointless and dumb" Because Ahmed is averaging 13 points and 5 rebounds per game, which depending on the circumstances is somewhere between adequate and spectacular. For example that terrible output is similar to Jakarr Sampson's terrible numbers. Sampson was as I recall also terrible and a cancer, except he managed to metastasize himself into the NBA.

Those numbers are also similar to any number of well regarded SJU players: Shelton Jones averaged 14 and 8 as a junior; Lavar Postell averaged 13 and 6 as a junior; Artest averaged 14 and 6 as a soph; Willie Glass averaged 16 and 6 as a senior. Those guys were NBA draft picks. None of them were forced into a feature role because they played on one of the least experienced team in the country. Mo Harkless otoh played on a very inexperienced team that lost a shitton of games: he averaged 15 and 8 and was a lottery pick.

Ahmed is averaging ~ 16 and 6 over his past half dozen games, half a year into his college career, in what is allegedly the best basketball conference in the country - this while playing out of position. All last year I heard about how poor Federico Missini was playing out of position and what a brave wittle twooper he was. Well, Ahmed's a SF in a perfect world and playing out of position he's averaging about what this SF did in his first year

13 points / 6 rebounds / 2 assists / 48 fg / 20 3pt

versus

13 points / 5 rebounds / 1 assist / 39 fg / 37 3 pt


The numbers are eerily similar, the only significance between them being about a turnover per game, this guy being Malik Sealy. Pray tell what do Ken Pom's mystery statistics say about Malik Sealy? Oh that's right, IDGAF.

Ahmed is a bit out of control although less so now and isn't much of a passer. I don't need Ken Pom to tell me that because I have eyes. Also because I have eyes I know that if we had a couple three more players who were as "terrible on offense" as Ahmed is we might have won a couple more games.

PS Tariq Owens is not a "good" rebounder. In fact, Tariq Owens is a not very good rebounder, for a guy who's nearly seven feet tall. Shamorie Ponds and Marcus Lovett are good rebounders. Ask Ken Pom what he thinks about that.

Ahmed has a lower KenPom Offensive Rating (which is a measure of efficiency) than Yakwe.  Only Amar and Freudenberg rank lower than Ahmed.

That said, the "eye test" reveals that Ahmed brings a dimension to our offense oh which no one else on the active roster is capable.  I also agree that his play has improved, including better decision making and sharing of the ball.  If he continues to work on his weaknesses, he will be a very good player. 

Ahmed has a lower KenPom Offensive Rating (which is a measure of efficiency) than Yakwe.  Only Amar and Freudenberg rank lower than Ahmed.

That said, the "eye test" reveals that Ahmed brings a dimension to our offense oh which no one else on the active roster is capable.  I also agree that his play has improved, including better decision making and sharing of the ball.  If he continues to work on his weaknesses, he will be a very good player. 

It's may be a measure of efficiency, but it's not the measure of efficiency. What I'm saying is that any metric that shows that Ahmed is in some way a worse offensive player than Yakwe - much less terrible in general - is inaccurate. Because Yakwe has been atrocious on the offensive end this year, where Ahmed has been at worst adequate. Yakwe averages 3 points, BA averages 13. Yakwe averages 3 rebounds, BA 5. BA turns the ball over one and one half times more per game - and he turns it over too much, no question - but he also handles the ball more and farther from the basket and creates his own shots. Yakwe shoots a slightly higher percentage from the floor but nearly all his shots come on assists within 10 feet of the basket. Whatever that statistic measures it fails to take that stuff into account.

Certainly BA has flaws in his game. He turns the ball over too much and passes the ball not enough. But they all have flaws in their games: that's why they don't win more games. Ahmed is not the reason they don't win more and he gets bash(ir)ed more than he deserves. 

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 10, 2017, 11:12:52 AM

Ahmed has a lower KenPom Offensive Rating (which is a measure of efficiency) than Yakwe.  Only Amar and Freudenberg rank lower than Ahmed.

That said, the "eye test" reveals that Ahmed brings a dimension to our offense oh which no one else on the active roster is capable.  I also agree that his play has improved, including better decision making and sharing of the ball.  If he continues to work on his weaknesses, he will be a very good player. 

It's may be a measure of efficiency, but it's not the measure of efficiency. What I'm saying is that any metric that shows that Ahmed is in some way a worse offensive player than Yakwe - much less terrible in general - is inaccurate. Because Yakwe has been atrocious on the offensive end this year, where Ahmed has been at worst adequate. Yakwe averages 3 points, BA averages 13. Yakwe averages 3 rebounds, BA 5. BA turns the ball over one and one half times more per game - and he turns it over too much, no question - but he also handles the ball more and farther from the basket and creates his own shots. Yakwe shoots a slightly higher percentage from the floor but nearly all his shots come on assists within 10 feet of the basket. Whatever that statistic measures it fails to take that stuff into account.

Certainly BA has flaws in his game. He turns the ball over too much and passes the ball not enough. But they all have flaws in their games: that's why they don't win more games. Ahmed is not the reason they don't win more and he gets bash(ir)ed more than he deserves. 

Ahmed, clearly isn't the problem, but Yakwe not being a force inside is a big part of why we don't win. Mussini, too. In order to make the NIT, we needed these sophomores to grow up fast, and instead, they've regressed.

Quote from: Foad on February 10, 2017, 11:41:13 AM

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 10, 2017, 11:12:52 AM

Ahmed has a lower KenPom Offensive Rating (which is a measure of efficiency) than Yakwe.  Only Amar and Freudenberg rank lower than Ahmed.

That said, the "eye test" reveals that Ahmed brings a dimension to our offense oh which no one else on the active roster is capable.  I also agree that his play has improved, including better decision making and sharing of the ball.  If he continues to work on his weaknesses, he will be a very good player. 

It's may be a measure of efficiency, but it's not the measure of efficiency. What I'm saying is that any metric that shows that Ahmed is in some way a worse offensive player than Yakwe - much less terrible in general - is inaccurate. Because Yakwe has been atrocious on the offensive end this year, where Ahmed has been at worst adequate. Yakwe averages 3 points, BA averages 13. Yakwe averages 3 rebounds, BA 5. BA turns the ball over one and one half times more per game - and he turns it over too much, no question - but he also handles the ball more and farther from the basket and creates his own shots. Yakwe shoots a slightly higher percentage from the floor but nearly all his shots come on assists within 10 feet of the basket. Whatever that statistic measures it fails to take that stuff into account.

Certainly BA has flaws in his game. He turns the ball over too much and passes the ball not enough. But they all have flaws in their games: that's why they don't win more games. Ahmed is not the reason they don't win more and he gets bash(ir)ed more than he deserves. 

Ahmed, clearly isn't the problem, but Yakwe not being a force inside is a big part of why we don't win. Mussini, too. In order to make the NIT, we needed these sophomores to grow up fast, and instead, they've regressed.

We aren't making the NIT regardless of how fast they grow up. We still have a better chance of making the NCAA Tournament than the NIT

Quote from: Foad on February 10, 2017, 11:41:13 AM

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 10, 2017, 11:12:52 AM

Ahmed has a lower KenPom Offensive Rating (which is a measure of efficiency) than Yakwe.  Only Amar and Freudenberg rank lower than Ahmed.

That said, the "eye test" reveals that Ahmed brings a dimension to our offense oh which no one else on the active roster is capable.  I also agree that his play has improved, including better decision making and sharing of the ball.  If he continues to work on his weaknesses, he will be a very good player. 

It's may be a measure of efficiency, but it's not the measure of efficiency. What I'm saying is that any metric that shows that Ahmed is in some way a worse offensive player than Yakwe - much less terrible in general - is inaccurate. Because Yakwe has been atrocious on the offensive end this year, where Ahmed has been at worst adequate. Yakwe averages 3 points, BA averages 13. Yakwe averages 3 rebounds, BA 5. BA turns the ball over one and one half times more per game - and he turns it over too much, no question - but he also handles the ball more and farther from the basket and creates his own shots. Yakwe shoots a slightly higher percentage from the floor but nearly all his shots come on assists within 10 feet of the basket. Whatever that statistic measures it fails to take that stuff into account.

Certainly BA has flaws in his game. He turns the ball over too much and passes the ball not enough. But they all have flaws in their games: that's why they don't win more games. Ahmed is not the reason they don't win more and he gets bash(ir)ed more than he deserves. 

Ahmed, clearly isn't the problem, but Yakwe not being a force inside is a big part of why we don't win. Mussini, too. In order to make the NIT, we needed these sophomores to grow up fast, and instead, they've regressed.

Ahmed, warts & all is a BE level player with potential to be very good next season. Can't say the same for Yakwe who appears too unrefined & undersized. His rebounding ability is non existent, his essential role on this team. Hopefully he proves me wrong in remaining games, not occasionally.

efficiency matters.  one way yakwe can be a better offensive player than ahmed is by not taking shots away from ponds and lovett in exchange for low percentage shots of his own.  that is where efficiency comes into play.  ahmed scoring 16 doesn't help the team if he could have given the ball up and allowed ponds/lovett to shoot extra 3s, for example, rather than taking low percentage shots or driving into traffic.  Yakwe may just pass the ball off rather than attempting that drive -- to some people that shows ahmed being better according to the "eye" test, but it is better for the team.  I think ahmed can be a much better offensive player than he is.  He has a nose for the basket, and decent body control. But he stops the ball way too much, takes low percentage shots, and ultimately is hurting the team.  his efficiency numbers could increase dramatically if he played more in a team concept, though his raw ppg may decrease, the team would be better off, and he would be a better offensive player.

Quote from: Foad on February 10, 2017, 11:41:13 AM

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 10, 2017, 11:12:52 AM

Ahmed has a lower KenPom Offensive Rating (which is a measure of efficiency) than Yakwe.  Only Amar and Freudenberg rank lower than Ahmed.

That said, the "eye test" reveals that Ahmed brings a dimension to our offense oh which no one else on the active roster is capable.  I also agree that his play has improved, including better decision making and sharing of the ball.  If he continues to work on his weaknesses, he will be a very good player. 

It's may be a measure of efficiency, but it's not the measure of efficiency. What I'm saying is that any metric that shows that Ahmed is in some way a worse offensive player than Yakwe - much less terrible in general - is inaccurate. Because Yakwe has been atrocious on the offensive end this year, where Ahmed has been at worst adequate. Yakwe averages 3 points, BA averages 13. Yakwe averages 3 rebounds, BA 5. BA turns the ball over one and one half times more per game - and he turns it over too much, no question - but he also handles the ball more and farther from the basket and creates his own shots. Yakwe shoots a slightly higher percentage from the floor but nearly all his shots come on assists within 10 feet of the basket. Whatever that statistic measures it fails to take that stuff into account.

Certainly BA has flaws in his game. He turns the ball over too much and passes the ball not enough. But they all have flaws in their games: that's why they don't win more games. Ahmed is not the reason they don't win more and he gets bash(ir)ed more than he deserves. 

Ahmed, clearly isn't the problem, but Yakwe not being a force inside is a big part of why we don't win. Mussini, too. In order to make the NIT, we needed these sophomores to grow up fast, and instead, they've regressed.

I don't think Mussini has regressed. I think he has played his role well this season in more limited minutes. He is shooting 45% from 3 while playing 15 minutes or so a game. He was put in a tough spot last year but I think he looked good for the most part off the bench i a reduced role. Shooting numbers are way up.

Quote from: Poison on February 10, 2017, 12:09:09 PM

Quote from: Foad on February 10, 2017, 11:41:13 AM

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 10, 2017, 11:12:52 AM

Ahmed has a lower KenPom Offensive Rating (which is a measure of efficiency) than Yakwe.  Only Amar and Freudenberg rank lower than Ahmed.

That said, the "eye test" reveals that Ahmed brings a dimension to our offense oh which no one else on the active roster is capable.  I also agree that his play has improved, including better decision making and sharing of the ball.  If he continues to work on his weaknesses, he will be a very good player. 

It's may be a measure of efficiency, but it's not the measure of efficiency. What I'm saying is that any metric that shows that Ahmed is in some way a worse offensive player than Yakwe - much less terrible in general - is inaccurate. Because Yakwe has been atrocious on the offensive end this year, where Ahmed has been at worst adequate. Yakwe averages 3 points, BA averages 13. Yakwe averages 3 rebounds, BA 5. BA turns the ball over one and one half times more per game - and he turns it over too much, no question - but he also handles the ball more and farther from the basket and creates his own shots. Yakwe shoots a slightly higher percentage from the floor but nearly all his shots come on assists within 10 feet of the basket. Whatever that statistic measures it fails to take that stuff into account.

Certainly BA has flaws in his game. He turns the ball over too much and passes the ball not enough. But they all have flaws in their games: that's why they don't win more games. Ahmed is not the reason they don't win more and he gets bash(ir)ed more than he deserves. 

Ahmed, clearly isn't the problem, but Yakwe not being a force inside is a big part of why we don't win. Mussini, too. In order to make the NIT, we needed these sophomores to grow up fast, and instead, they've regressed.

I don't think Mussini has regressed. I think he has played his role well this season in more limited minutes. He is shooting 45% from 3 while playing 15 minutes or so a game. He was put in a tough spot last year but I think he looked good for the most part off the bench i a reduced role. Shooting numbers are way up.

Actually think Mussini is slightly underutilized when he's in but his time is just about right. I'd like to see his touches go up when he's in. I think Ellison has gotten better with more time. Looks more comfortable out there.

Quote from: Poison on February 10, 2017, 12:09:09 PM

Quote from: Foad on February 10, 2017, 11:41:13 AM

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 10, 2017, 11:12:52 AM

Ahmed has a lower KenPom Offensive Rating (which is a measure of efficiency) than Yakwe.  Only Amar and Freudenberg rank lower than Ahmed.

That said, the "eye test" reveals that Ahmed brings a dimension to our offense oh which no one else on the active roster is capable.  I also agree that his play has improved, including better decision making and sharing of the ball.  If he continues to work on his weaknesses, he will be a very good player. 

It's may be a measure of efficiency, but it's not the measure of efficiency. What I'm saying is that any metric that shows that Ahmed is in some way a worse offensive player than Yakwe - much less terrible in general - is inaccurate. Because Yakwe has been atrocious on the offensive end this year, where Ahmed has been at worst adequate. Yakwe averages 3 points, BA averages 13. Yakwe averages 3 rebounds, BA 5. BA turns the ball over one and one half times more per game - and he turns it over too much, no question - but he also handles the ball more and farther from the basket and creates his own shots. Yakwe shoots a slightly higher percentage from the floor but nearly all his shots come on assists within 10 feet of the basket. Whatever that statistic measures it fails to take that stuff into account.

Certainly BA has flaws in his game. He turns the ball over too much and passes the ball not enough. But they all have flaws in their games: that's why they don't win more games. Ahmed is not the reason they don't win more and he gets bash(ir)ed more than he deserves. 

Ahmed, clearly isn't the problem, but Yakwe not being a force inside is a big part of why we don't win. Mussini, too. In order to make the NIT, we needed these sophomores to grow up fast, and instead, they've regressed.

Ahmed, warts & all is a BE level player with potential to be very good next season. Can't say the same for Yakwe who appears too unrefined & undersized. His rebounding ability is non existent, his essential role on this team. Hopefully he proves me wrong in remaining games, not occasionally.

Ahmed is tough. Just needs to identify when to go and when to hold back. His ability to hit the 3 though is the difference maker.

I don't think all is lost with Yakwe. I think a lot is confidence and fanbase looking at him through microscope. Will be needed part.