Villanova prediction thread

Anyone who watches/knows anything about basketball can see Ponds is a much better player than DiVincenzo. Put Ponds on Villanova where the defense isn't keyed in on him and he would have playmakers like Brunson and Hart to get him wide open looks  like DiVincenzo has, and Ponds would thrive (not that he isn't already). Put Divincenzo on St. John's where he would have to create his own shots and have defenses focusing on him and he's nothing more than a rich man's Mussini this season. It's unbelievable that people are actually ripping Ponds when he's arguably the best player on our team and averaging 17ppg 5rpg and 3apg in the Big East as a freshman..... If he ends up staying all 4 years I think he's Big East POY material, and could be arguably one of the best players in the country eventually if he keeps progressing.

Agreed and I think it's pretty obvious. Nova would almost certainly repeat if they had Ponds. As
it is, Nova's collective physical talent leaves them vulnerable against athletic teams with size.

Quote from: thetruth8734 on February 06, 2017, 12:30:19 AM

Anyone who watches/knows anything about basketball can see Ponds is a much better player than DiVincenzo. Put Ponds on Villanova where the defense isn't keyed in on him and he would have playmakers like Brunson and Hart to get him wide open looks  like DiVincenzo has, and Ponds would thrive (not that he isn't already). Put Divincenzo on St. John's where he would have to create his own shots and have defenses focusing on him and he's nothing more than a rich man's Mussini this season. It's unbelievable that people are actually ripping Ponds when he's arguably the best player on our team and averaging 17ppg 5rpg and 3apg in the Big East as a freshman..... If he ends up staying all 4 years I think he's Big East POY material, and could be arguably one of the best players in the country eventually if he keeps progressing.

Agreed and I think it's pretty obvious. Nova would almost certainly repeat if they had Ponds. As
it is, Nova's collective physical talent leaves them vulnerable against athletic teams with size.

Ponds wouldn't get off the bench at Nova. Plays zero d and only puts effort in when the ball is in his hands.

BTW, his handlers think he is a 1st round pick now

Quote from: Marillac on February 06, 2017, 02:50:24 AM

Quote from: thetruth8734 on February 06, 2017, 12:30:19 AM

Anyone who watches/knows anything about basketball can see Ponds is a much better player than DiVincenzo. Put Ponds on Villanova where the defense isn't keyed in on him and he would have playmakers like Brunson and Hart to get him wide open looks  like DiVincenzo has, and Ponds would thrive (not that he isn't already). Put Divincenzo on St. John's where he would have to create his own shots and have defenses focusing on him and he's nothing more than a rich man's Mussini this season. It's unbelievable that people are actually ripping Ponds when he's arguably the best player on our team and averaging 17ppg 5rpg and 3apg in the Big East as a freshman..... If he ends up staying all 4 years I think he's Big East POY material, and could be arguably one of the best players in the country eventually if he keeps progressing.

Agreed and I think it's pretty obvious. Nova would almost certainly repeat if they had Ponds. As
it is, Nova's collective physical talent leaves them vulnerable against athletic teams with size.

Ponds wouldn't get off the bench at Nova. Plays zero d and only puts effort in when the ball is in his hands.

BTW, his handlers think he is a 1st round pick now

They may want to think that but once they speak to any NBA scout they would tell them he wouldn't be drafted if the draft was another 5 rounds. He is nowhere near NBA ready in anyway. He has talent but he is small, skinny and his game needs a lot of polishing up.

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 06, 2017, 07:54:29 AM

Quote from: Marillac on February 06, 2017, 02:50:24 AM

Quote from: thetruth8734 on February 06, 2017, 12:30:19 AM

Anyone who watches/knows anything about basketball can see Ponds is a much better player than DiVincenzo. Put Ponds on Villanova where the defense isn't keyed in on him and he would have playmakers like Brunson and Hart to get him wide open looks  like DiVincenzo has, and Ponds would thrive (not that he isn't already). Put Divincenzo on St. John's where he would have to create his own shots and have defenses focusing on him and he's nothing more than a rich man's Mussini this season. It's unbelievable that people are actually ripping Ponds when he's arguably the best player on our team and averaging 17ppg 5rpg and 3apg in the Big East as a freshman..... If he ends up staying all 4 years I think he's Big East POY material, and could be arguably one of the best players in the country eventually if he keeps progressing.

Agreed and I think it's pretty obvious. Nova would almost certainly repeat if they had Ponds. As
it is, Nova's collective physical talent leaves them vulnerable against athletic teams with size.

Ponds wouldn't get off the bench at Nova. Plays zero d and only puts effort in when the ball is in his hands.

BTW, his handlers think he is a 1st round pick now

They may want to think that but once they speak to any NBA scout they would tell them he wouldn't be drafted if the draft was another 5 rounds. He is nowhere near NBA ready in anyway. He has talent but he is small, skinny and his game needs a lot of polishing up.

I spoke to Kris Jenkins' uncle and another close relative (cousin) at the start of this season, and they both felt he was a first round pick.  Serious business. 

Good people (I've known the cousin for many years), but I had to give 'em a dose of reality.  I like "Big Smoove," and would love for him to to be a first round pick or an NBA player period.  But, at this juncture, that's not in the cards.

Quite a few of these folks who are close to these players have visions of grandeur.  Unfortunately, there are times when it's more like delusions.

Unless, Ponds wanna play abroad, then I wouldn't sweat what his handlers believe.  Sometimes, realization has a way of smacking folks in their face.

Quote from: Wods317 on February 06, 2017, 08:22:04 AM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 06, 2017, 07:54:29 AM

Quote from: Marillac on February 06, 2017, 02:50:24 AM

Quote from: thetruth8734 on February 06, 2017, 12:30:19 AM

Anyone who watches/knows anything about basketball can see Ponds is a much better player than DiVincenzo. Put Ponds on Villanova where the defense isn't keyed in on him and he would have playmakers like Brunson and Hart to get him wide open looks  like DiVincenzo has, and Ponds would thrive (not that he isn't already). Put Divincenzo on St. John's where he would have to create his own shots and have defenses focusing on him and he's nothing more than a rich man's Mussini this season. It's unbelievable that people are actually ripping Ponds when he's arguably the best player on our team and averaging 17ppg 5rpg and 3apg in the Big East as a freshman..... If he ends up staying all 4 years I think he's Big East POY material, and could be arguably one of the best players in the country eventually if he keeps progressing.

Agreed and I think it's pretty obvious. Nova would almost certainly repeat if they had Ponds. As
it is, Nova's collective physical talent leaves them vulnerable against athletic teams with size.

Ponds wouldn't get off the bench at Nova. Plays zero d and only puts effort in when the ball is in his hands.

BTW, his handlers think he is a 1st round pick now

They may want to think that but once they speak to any NBA scout they would tell them he wouldn't be drafted if the draft was another 5 rounds. He is nowhere near NBA ready in anyway. He has talent but he is small, skinny and his game needs a lot of polishing up.

I spoke to Kris Jenkins' uncle and another close relative (cousin) at the start of this season, and they both felt he was a first round pick.  Serious business. 

Good people (I've known the cousin for many years), but I had to give 'em a dose of reality.  I like "Big Smoove," and would love for him to to be a first round pick or an NBA player period.  But, at this juncture, that's not in the cards.

Quite a few of these folks who are close to these players have visions of grandeur.  Unfortunately, there are times when it's more like delusions.

Unless, Ponds wanna play abroad, then I wouldn't sweat what his handlers believe.  Sometimes, realization has a way of smacking folks in their face.

+1

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 05, 2017, 11:21:40 PM

Quote from: goredmen on February 05, 2017, 11:11:31 PM

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 05, 2017, 11:02:09 PM

Quote from: goredmen on February 05, 2017, 05:01:33 PM

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 05, 2017, 10:38:08 AM

Quote from: goredmen on February 05, 2017, 03:15:58 AM

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 05, 2017, 02:46:23 AM

Quote from: TONYD3 on February 04, 2017, 09:54:30 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:47:49 PM

Quote from: TONYD3 on February 04, 2017, 09:45:41 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:42:02 PM

Quote from: TONYD3 on February 04, 2017, 09:40:19 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:36:39 PM

Quote from: goredmen on February 04, 2017, 09:30:00 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:25:54 PM

Quote from: TONYD3 on February 04, 2017, 09:24:35 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:22:33 PM

Whole lot of selfish play.  A lot of guys deciding what they're going to do with the ball and not adapting.

It is not selfish it is the game plan

Yes, I'm sure Mullin and Co is telling the team to play only ISO ball and never pass.

Nobody ever gets taken out of the game for doing it so they aren't being told not to

For the most part there really aren't any acceptable options. And if you think the amount of selfish play hasn't decreased as the season has gone on, we haven't been watching the same games.

This is more the norm then the exception. Selfish isn't the right word. These guys are allowed if not encouraged to take these shots.

You're nuts if you think they're encouraged or there's even approval of those shots. Mullin isn't an idiot and isn't trying to sabotage his own team.

How many air balls from 3 are you going to watch before you change your mind ?

What's your point? That was a good look by Mussini, just a bad shot. I'll be convinced next year when we have at least 2 other good options on the bench and Ahmed can throw the ball at the basket and stay in.

Point is simple. I think we take bad shots. I think we play to fast. I think bad shooters are allowed to take bad shots. I think this happens most games.

I think you are living in some sort of alternate reality and unable to see things as they truly are.  I've said it before and I'll say it again.  It ain't the offense:

SCORING OFFENSE    G    W-L    Pts    Avg/G
1.    Creighton    23    20-3    1952    84.9
2.    Marquette    22    14-8    1832    83.3
3.    St. John's    24    11-13    1850    77.1
4.    Villanova    23    21-2    1771            77.0
5.    Xavier            22    16-6    1687    76.7
6.    Georgetown    23    13-10    1757    76.4
   Butler            23    18-5    1757    76.4
8.    Seton Hall    21    13-8    1559    74.2
9.    DePaul            22    8-14    1541    70.0
10.    Providence    24    14-10    1674    69.8

Lol. Points per game is a completely meaningless stat. We, Creighton and Marquette play super fast and Villanova plays super slow so of course we'll have more PPG than Villanova.  Our offense is nowhere near as good as Villanova's and do you think Creighton's offense even with Watson was a full 8 points better than Nova's? No shot.

If you want a team offense stat that actually matters then look for total efficiency which is points per 100 possessions. This eliminates the gaping flaw in PPG in that it is tempo neutral and it adjusts for quality of opponents. Here is the BE teams in order of points per 100 possessions and their total D1 rank out of 351 teams is in parentheses:

1. Villanova 122.6 (6)
2. Marquette 122.3 (7)
3. Creighton 119.1 (18)
4. Butler 117.9 (22)
5. Xavier 117.6 (25)
6. Georgetown 110.7 (80)
7. St. John's 110.2 (91)
8. Seton Hall 109.5 (105)
9. Providence 108.9 (116)
10. DePaul 104.9 (181)

So as you can see in reality we have the 7th best offense in the conference and 91st best in D1. Not terrible, but not good either. Offense isn't as much of a problem as defense is but it's still a problem

Not meaningless.  The points you score in a game is a good criteria for judging offense.  The points you give up a good judge of defense.

Tempo is a part of all that.

By that measure The Citadel would have the best offense in all of D1 basketball as they average 93.1 points per game when in reality The Citadel doesn't even have a top 100 offense in D1 because they average 81 possessions a game when the NCAA average is 68

Your conclusion.  Not mine.  I never said anything about who has the best offense.

You inferred that our offense isn't the problem and used the points per game stat that shows us as the 3rd best offense in the conference to validate your point.  I simply pointed out that if you use a better measure to judge offensive efficiency you would see that our offense is indeed a problem

That's right. I do disagree that our offense is a problem.  In addition to the fact that we have 5 very competent 3 point shooters,  I offer you this:

1.    RODRIGUEZ, Desi-SHU    JR    9    61    27    16    165            18.3
2.    HART,Josh-VU                   SR    11    72    20    37    201            18.3
3.    LOVETT, Marcus-SJU            FR    12    72    24    43    211             17.6
4.    PRYOR, Rodney-GU            SR    10    66    20    19    171             17.1
5.    PONDS, Shamorie-SJU    FR    12    64    21    56    205     17.1

That's right.  We have two scorers in the league's top five. No other BE offense can claim that.

Yes no other Big East offense can claim that because no other Big East team plays as fast as we do. We average more possessions per game than every other team which gives our guys more chances to score than every other team, so it would surprising if we didn't have two of the top 5 scorers in the conference. This is also meaningless as our top 2 guys are a bigger part of our offense than the top 2 guys for other offenses due to our limited scoring options and depth.

Lets break it down:

Player A scores 17 points on 6-18 shooting.
Player B scores 15 points on 5-10 shooting.

Who had the better game? Obviously player B did, but if the only stat you look at is points per game you'd incorrectly think Player A was better.

The same can be applied to team scoring:

Team A averages 77 points per game but averages 80 possessions per game
Team B averages 73 points per game but averages 71 possessions per game

Again, Team B is obviously the much better offense despite averaging 4 points less per game than Team A

The ability to play "fast" is one characteristic of a good offense.

I don't need these breakdowns to figure out that the ole Loyola Marymount team had a good offense.  I bet they had many possessions.

Do you think that our offense is much better this year than last?

Quote from: goredmen on February 05, 2017, 11:43:54 PM

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 05, 2017, 11:21:40 PM

Quote from: goredmen on February 05, 2017, 11:11:31 PM

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 05, 2017, 11:02:09 PM

Quote from: goredmen on February 05, 2017, 05:01:33 PM

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 05, 2017, 10:38:08 AM

Quote from: goredmen on February 05, 2017, 03:15:58 AM

Quote from: carmineabbatiello on February 05, 2017, 02:46:23 AM

Quote from: TONYD3 on February 04, 2017, 09:54:30 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:47:49 PM

Quote from: TONYD3 on February 04, 2017, 09:45:41 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:42:02 PM

Quote from: TONYD3 on February 04, 2017, 09:40:19 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:36:39 PM

Quote from: goredmen on February 04, 2017, 09:30:00 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:25:54 PM

Quote from: TONYD3 on February 04, 2017, 09:24:35 PM

Quote from: survivedc on February 04, 2017, 09:22:33 PM

Whole lot of selfish play.  A lot of guys deciding what they're going to do with the ball and not adapting.

It is not selfish it is the game plan

Yes, I'm sure Mullin and Co is telling the team to play only ISO ball and never pass.

Nobody ever gets taken out of the game for doing it so they aren't being told not to

For the most part there really aren't any acceptable options. And if you think the amount of selfish play hasn't decreased as the season has gone on, we haven't been watching the same games.

This is more the norm then the exception. Selfish isn't the right word. These guys are allowed if not encouraged to take these shots.

You're nuts if you think they're encouraged or there's even approval of those shots. Mullin isn't an idiot and isn't trying to sabotage his own team.

How many air balls from 3 are you going to watch before you change your mind ?

What's your point? That was a good look by Mussini, just a bad shot. I'll be convinced next year when we have at least 2 other good options on the bench and Ahmed can throw the ball at the basket and stay in.

Point is simple. I think we take bad shots. I think we play to fast. I think bad shooters are allowed to take bad shots. I think this happens most games.

I think you are living in some sort of alternate reality and unable to see things as they truly are.  I've said it before and I'll say it again.  It ain't the offense:

SCORING OFFENSE    G    W-L    Pts    Avg/G
1.    Creighton    23    20-3    1952    84.9
2.    Marquette    22    14-8    1832    83.3
3.    St. John's    24    11-13    1850    77.1
4.    Villanova    23    21-2    1771            77.0
5.    Xavier            22    16-6    1687    76.7
6.    Georgetown    23    13-10    1757    76.4
   Butler            23    18-5    1757    76.4
8.    Seton Hall    21    13-8    1559    74.2
9.    DePaul            22    8-14    1541    70.0
10.    Providence    24    14-10    1674    69.8

Lol. Points per game is a completely meaningless stat. We, Creighton and Marquette play super fast and Villanova plays super slow so of course we'll have more PPG than Villanova.  Our offense is nowhere near as good as Villanova's and do you think Creighton's offense even with Watson was a full 8 points better than Nova's? No shot.

If you want a team offense stat that actually matters then look for total efficiency which is points per 100 possessions. This eliminates the gaping flaw in PPG in that it is tempo neutral and it adjusts for quality of opponents. Here is the BE teams in order of points per 100 possessions and their total D1 rank out of 351 teams is in parentheses:

1. Villanova 122.6 (6)
2. Marquette 122.3 (7)
3. Creighton 119.1 (18)
4. Butler 117.9 (22)
5. Xavier 117.6 (25)
6. Georgetown 110.7 (80)
7. St. John's 110.2 (91)
8. Seton Hall 109.5 (105)
9. Providence 108.9 (116)
10. DePaul 104.9 (181)

So as you can see in reality we have the 7th best offense in the conference and 91st best in D1. Not terrible, but not good either. Offense isn't as much of a problem as defense is but it's still a problem

Not meaningless.  The points you score in a game is a good criteria for judging offense.  The points you give up a good judge of defense.

Tempo is a part of all that.

By that measure The Citadel would have the best offense in all of D1 basketball as they average 93.1 points per game when in reality The Citadel doesn't even have a top 100 offense in D1 because they average 81 possessions a game when the NCAA average is 68

Your conclusion.  Not mine.  I never said anything about who has the best offense.

You inferred that our offense isn't the problem and used the points per game stat that shows us as the 3rd best offense in the conference to validate your point.  I simply pointed out that if you use a better measure to judge offensive efficiency you would see that our offense is indeed a problem

That's right. I do disagree that our offense is a problem.  In addition to the fact that we have 5 very competent 3 point shooters,  I offer you this:

1.    RODRIGUEZ, Desi-SHU    JR    9    61    27    16    165            18.3
2.    HART,Josh-VU                   SR    11    72    20    37    201            18.3
3.    LOVETT, Marcus-SJU            FR    12    72    24    43    211             17.6
4.    PRYOR, Rodney-GU            SR    10    66    20    19    171             17.1
5.    PONDS, Shamorie-SJU    FR    12    64    21    56    205     17.1

That's right.  We have two scorers in the league's top five. No other BE offense can claim that.

Yes no other Big East offense can claim that because no other Big East team plays as fast as we do. We average more possessions per game than every other team which gives our guys more chances to score than every other team, so it would surprising if we didn't have two of the top 5 scorers in the conference. This is also meaningless as our top 2 guys are a bigger part of our offense than the top 2 guys for other offenses due to our limited scoring options and depth.

Lets break it down:

Player A scores 17 points on 6-18 shooting.
Player B scores 15 points on 5-10 shooting.

Who had the better game? Obviously player B did, but if the only stat you look at is points per game you'd incorrectly think Player A was better.

The same can be applied to team scoring:

Team A averages 77 points per game but averages 80 possessions per game
Team B averages 73 points per game but averages 71 possessions per game

Again, Team B is obviously the much better offense despite averaging 4 points less per game than Team A

The ability to play "fast" is one characteristic of a good offense.

I don't need these breakdowns to figure out that the ole Loyola Marymount team had a good offense.  I bet they had many possessions.

Do you think that our offense is much better this year than last?

It has nothing to do with the ability to play fast, it's the choice to play an up tempo style of play. The Citadel averages 24 more points per game than Virginia does but Virginia obviously has the better offense.

I'm not sure what last year has to do with anything, we had a historically bad offense last year. Our offense has definitely improved since last year but it is nowhere near where it needs to be for us to be a good team.

Some teams that have a better offense than us this season in no particular order:

UMBC
Rice
Morehead St
Fort Wayne
South Dakota St
Denver
Loyola Chicago
Louisiana Lafayette
Toledo
Canisius
Hoftsra
Marshall
William & Mary
Central Michigan
Akron
Troy

So unless we want to continue to not even be on the NIT bubble then our offense needs to get much better than it is now

So unless we want to continue to not even be on the NIT bubble then our offense needs to get much better than it is now

Disagree.  Our defense needs to get much better than it is now to be on the NIT bubble.

Quote from: goredmen on February 06, 2017, 12:44:15 PM

So unless we want to continue to not even be on the NIT bubble then our offense needs to get much better than it is now

Disagree.  Our defense needs to get much better than it is now to be on the NIT bubble.

Both our offense and defense need to improve by leaps and bounds. Neither is particularly good at the moment

Quote from: Marillac on February 06, 2017, 02:50:24 AM

Quote from: thetruth8734 on February 06, 2017, 12:30:19 AM

Anyone who watches/knows anything about basketball can see Ponds is a much better player than DiVincenzo. Put Ponds on Villanova where the defense isn't keyed in on him and he would have playmakers like Brunson and Hart to get him wide open looks  like DiVincenzo has, and Ponds would thrive (not that he isn't already). Put Divincenzo on St. John's where he would have to create his own shots and have defenses focusing on him and he's nothing more than a rich man's Mussini this season. It's unbelievable that people are actually ripping Ponds when he's arguably the best player on our team and averaging 17ppg 5rpg and 3apg in the Big East as a freshman..... If he ends up staying all 4 years I think he's Big East POY material, and could be arguably one of the best players in the country eventually if he keeps progressing.

Agreed and I think it's pretty obvious. Nova would almost certainly repeat if they had Ponds. As
it is, Nova's collective physical talent leaves them vulnerable against athletic teams with size.

Ponds wouldn't get off the bench at Nova. Plays zero d and only puts effort in when the ball is in his hands.

BTW, his handlers think he is a 1st round pick now

I have my opinion on the topic that I won't make public after Harkless.

Offense is fine on the perimeter but we need an inside presence to balance it and take some pressure off.  The guards will be more efficient if there is balance.  Defense is the main problem, tis horrible.   Ball movement will also improve if there is a reliable inside option.

For the love of God will some of you guys lay off the quote button. It takes a half an hour to scroll down.

For the love of God will some of you guys lay off the quote button. It takes a half an hour to scroll down.

Agreed. And anything over 3-4 sentences is trying too hard

Anyone who watches/knows anything about basketball can see Ponds is a much better player than DiVincenzo. Put Ponds on Villanova where the defense isn't keyed in on him and he would have playmakers like Brunson and Hart to get him wide open looks  like DiVincenzo has, and Ponds would thrive (not that he isn't already). Put Divincenzo on St. John's where he would have to create his own shots and have defenses focusing on him and he's nothing more than a rich man's Mussini this season. It's unbelievable that people are actually ripping Ponds when he's arguably the best player on our team and averaging 17ppg 5rpg and 3apg in the Big East as a freshman..... If he ends up staying all 4 years I think he's Big East POY material, and could be arguably one of the best players in the country eventually if he keeps progressing.

Think he already is

Anyone who watches/knows anything about basketball can see Ponds is a much better player than DiVincenzo. Put Ponds on Villanova where the defense isn't keyed in on him and he would have playmakers like Brunson and Hart to get him wide open looks  like DiVincenzo has, and Ponds would thrive (not that he isn't already). Put Divincenzo on St. John's where he would have to create his own shots and have defenses focusing on him and he's nothing more than a rich man's Mussini this season. It's unbelievable that people are actually ripping Ponds when he's arguably the best player on our team and averaging 17ppg 5rpg and 3apg in the Big East as a freshman..... If he ends up staying all 4 years I think he's Big East POY material, and could be arguably one of the best players in the country eventually if he keeps progressing.

+1000