A lot of teams lost experience and talent, so I don't see this group as one that would be waded the way last year's was. Still, there are no players on the roster with more than one year of basketball experience. That will make a top 3/4 finish extremely unlikely, but you never know.
For Lavin to be the COY discussion his class will have to produce players that are ready for the BE, and more talented than advertised. Regarding Harkless and Harrison, Lavin did just that.