2016-2017 Bubble Watch

Welcome to the 2017 Bubble Watch.  I have no idea if/when it will be updated.  The first one is really long.  Any future updates will hopefully be much more manageable.  My apologies to the SEC and the Others.  By the time I got that far I was pretty much out of steam.

Each conference will be broken down into 5 tiers as follows:

Locks: 24
Strong Chance: 10
Decent Chance: 12
Outside looking in: 17
True Longshots: 8

The cut line lies in the Decent Chance range.
*Non-Listed AQs: 25
**These numbers are all assuming my math was correct

AAC:
Cincinnati and SMU are locks.  Houston will likely need a win vs SMU or Cinci.  They should also not lose to East Carolina.  Probably takes 4-1 down the stretch to get in.

Cincinnati- (22-2)  KP: 20  RPI: 16  BPI: 17
SMU- (21-4)  KP: 12  RPI: 26  BPI: 19

(No strong chance)

(No decent chance)

Houston- (18-7)  KP: 36  RPI: 56  BPI: 33

(No true longshot)


ACC:
UNC, FSU, Virginia, Louisville, and Duke are all locks.  ND should probably be a lock as well.  One more win should do it.  At or above .500 should probably do it for Miami and Virginia Tech, Syracuse as well.  Wake Forest has one of the weirdest profiles I can remember, going 0-8 against the RPI top 50, but 7-2 against 50-100.  Their remaining schedule gives them opportunites to remedy that.  Clemson and Pitt can likely only afford 2 more losses, though this year 3 more might still work.  Georgia Tech seems to have employed the “if you’re gonna lose, you may as well LOSE” strategy, getting beat by double digits in 7 of their 10 losses, including by 53 to Duke.  It has destroyed their computer numbers, despite wins @VCU and home against ND, UNC, and FSU.  It will be interesting to see what happens to them if they finish the regular season 4-2.

UNC- ( 21-5)  KP: 11  RPI: 5  BPI: 7
Florida State- (21-5)  KP: 14  RPI: 10  BPI: 18
Virginia- (18-5)  KP: 2  RPI: 13  BPI: 2
Louisville- (20-5)  KP: 5  RPI: 4  BPI: 5
Duke- (20-5)  KP: 15  RPI: 15  BPI: 8

Notre Dame- (19-7)  KP: 24  RPI: 25  BPI: 20
Virginia Tech- (16-7)  KP: 54  RPI: 45  BPI: 52
Miami- (16-8)  KP: 35  RPI: 51  BPI: 30

Syracuse- (16-10)  KP: 49  RPI: 68  BPI: 31

Wake Forest-  (15-10)  KP: 30  RPI: 31  BPI: 33
Clemson- (13-11)  KP: 39  RPI: 54  BPI: 38
Pittsburgh- (14-11)  KP: 66  RPI: 53  BPI: 64
NC State- (14-12)  KP: 103  RPI: 96  BPI: 73
Georgia Tech- (15-10)  KP: 80  RPI: 76  BPI: 99

(No true longshot)


Big 10:
Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland are locks.  Congratulations to NW for what will be their first ever NCAA tournament.  Minnesota is surprisingly close.  Finishing at or above .500 likely gets Michigan and MSU in (Who knew sweeping Minnesota would be so big for MSU).  Indiana has fallen dangerously close to eliminating themselves.  They now have some catching up to do.  OSU would need a very strong finish.  PSU and Illinois have to pretty much win out while Iowa might still not get in if they do.

Wisconsin- (21-3) KP: 12  RPI: 18   BPI: 15
Purdue- (20-5) KP: 10  RPI: 19  BPI: 9
Maryland- (21-4) KP: 34  RPI: 24  BPI: 43
Northwestern- (18-6) KP: 32  RPI: 40  BPI: 42

Minnesota- (18-7) KP: 37  RPI: 22  BPI: 44

Michigan- (15-9) KP: 31  RPI: 73  BPI: 26
Michigan St- (15-10) KP: 53  RPI: 41  BPI: 49

Indiana- (15-10) KP: 42  RPI: 78  BPI: 28
Ohio State- (15-11) KP: 61  RPI: 57  BPI: 56
Penn St- (14-12) KP: 78  RPI: 61  BPI: 86
Illinois- (14-12) KP: 77  RPI: 65  BPI: 72

Iowa- (14-12) KP: 72  RPI: 102  BPI: 89



Big 12:
WVU, KU, and Baylor are locks.  ISU and OSU have some work to do but are in decent shape.  KSU and TCU are in less decent shape, but still better than some other bubble teams.  Texas Tech isn’t too far behind them, with a big home game against Baylor tomorrow.

West Virginia- (20-5) KP: 4  RPI: 29  BPI: 3
Kansas- (22-3) KP: 9  RPI: 3  BPI: 10
Baylor- (22-3) KP: 7  RPI: 1  BPI: 14

Iowa State- (15-9) KP: 26  RPI: 52  BPI: 25
Oklahoma State- (16-9) KP: 21  RPI: 28  BPI: 29

Kansas State- (16-9) KP: 28  RPI: 43  BPI: 34
TCU- (17-8) KP: 38  RPI: 34  BPI: 46

Texas Tech- (16-9) KP: 40  RPI: 95  BPI: 39

(No true longshot)


Big East:
Villanova, Butler, and Creighton are locks.  Xavier is all but there as well.  Marquette and Seton Hall would probably be in as of today, but need to finish at or above .500 the rest of the way.  Georgetown and Providence can probably only afford one more regular season loss barring a deep run in the BET.

Villanova- (24-2)  KP: 3  RPI: 2  BPI: 1
Butler- (19-6)  KP: 25  RPI: 12  BPI: 24
Creighton- (21-4)  KP: 22  RPI: 17  BPI: 22

Xavier- (18-7)  KP: 29  RPI: 14  BPI: 27
Marquette- (15-10)  KP: 43  RPI: 82  BPI: 41
Seton Hall- (15-9)  KP: 55  RPI: 46  BPI: 57

(No decent chance)

Georgetown- (14-12)  KP: 74  RPI: 59  BPI: 47
Providence- (15-11)  KP: 59  RPI: 70  BPI: 61

(no true longshot)


Pac-12:
Oregon Arizona and UCLA are locks.  Cal has solid computer numbers due to several close losses against top competition, losing by less than 5 to Virginia and twice to Arizona.  Would likely take two more top quality wins to get in.  Utah is basically Cal Light, which is not a good thing.  Colorado has a lot of work to do.

Oregon- (22-4)  KP: 17  RPI: 6  BPI: 13
Arizona- (23-3)  KP: 23  RPI: 7  BPI: 23
UCLA- (22-3)  KP: 18  RPI: 20  BPI: 12

USC- (21-5)  KP: 57  RPI: 32  BPI: 53

(No Decent Chance)

California- (18-7)  KP: 47  RPI: 33  BPI: 45

Utah- (17-8)  KP: 48  RPI: 80  BPI: 54
Colorado- (14-11)  KP: 74  RPI: 103  BPI: 91



SEC:
Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina are Locks.  Arkansas would be in pretty good shape with 4 more wins.  Alabama and Tennessee have their work cut out for them, while the rest will probably be off this list by next week.

Florida- (20-5)  KP: 6  RPI: 11  BPI: 6
Kentucky- (20-5)  KP: 8  RPI: 9  BPI: 11
South Carolina- (20-5)  KP: 27  RPI: 21  BPI: 40

(No Strong Chance)

Arkansas- (18-7)  KP: 58  RPI: 44  BPI: 55

Alabama- (14-10)  KP: 62  RPI: 66  BPI: 63
Tennessee- (14-11)  KP: 41  RPI: 42  BPI: 50

Mississippi- (15-10)  KP: 68  RPI: 58  BPI: 81
Auburn- (16-9)  KP: 75  RPI: 67  BPI: 80
Georgia- (14-11)  KP: 50  RPI: 50  BPI: 66
Texas A&M- (13-11)  KP: 64  RPI: 88  BPI: 76
Mississippi St- (14-10)  KP: 95  RPI: 112  BPI: 97



Other:
Gonzaga is a lock.  Saint Mary’s probably shouldn’t lose out, but should otherwise be fine.  Dayton and VCU are in good shape.  Wichita St and Illinois St have might face elimination altogether assuming they meet in the MVC tournament unless they get a lot of help from the power conferences.  There’s just not enough good wins in their profiles.  Despite what Bracketology shows, I would favor Middle Tennessee and Nevada’s resumes over them.

Gonzaga

Saint Mary’s

VCU
Dayton
Middle Tennessee
Nevada

Illinois St.
Wichita St

(No true longshot)

A10:
Very Likely:  VCU, Dayton
Less Likely: URI

AAC:
Locks: Cinci, SMU
Longshot: Houston

ACC:
Locks: UNC, FSU, Virginia, Louisville, Duke, ND
Very Likely: Virginia Tech
Likely: Miami, Syracuse
Less Likely: Clemson, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech

Big 10:
Locks: Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland
Very Likely: Northwestern, Minnesota
Likely: Michigan, Michigan St
Less Likely: Indiana
Longshots: Ohio State

Big 12:
Locks: WVU, KU, Baylor
Very Likely: OK State
Likely: Iowa State, TCU, K State
Less Likely: Texas Tech

Big East:
Locks: Villanova, Butler, Creighton,
Very Likely: Xavier
Likely: Seton Hall, Marquette
Less Likely: Providence
Longshot: Georgetown

Pac-12:
Locks: Oregon, Arizona, UCLA
Very Likely: USC
Likely: Cal
Longshot: Utah

SEC:
Locks:  Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Likely: Arkansas
Longshot: Alabama, Mississippi, Auburn, Georgia

Other:

Locks: Gonzaga
Very Likely: Saint Mary’s
Likely: Wichita St
Less Likely: Middle Tennessee, Illinois St, Nevada
Longshot: UT-Arlington, UNC Wilmington