For those saying 15 wins.
Who are the in conference wins coming against?
We'll take one or both from DePaul, then we'll be absolutely no less than 40-45% chance in the home games against the other BE teams not named Villanova or Xavier. We'd also have a realistic chance to steal 1 or 2 non-DePaul road games.
The 11-12 team won 13 games against a tougher schedule, and that team was worse than the team we'll have next year. Good thing you don't set lines in Vegas or they'd be broke.
Tha Kid is right. 14.5 is probably what the actual line would be.
So you're guaranteeing 1 win against DePaul. Where are the 14 others?
To guarantee myself at least a push on your line of 12, I'd only need 11 more wins.
LIU, Nicholls St, Longwood, Binghamton, Delaware St, Bethune Cookman are pretty much locks. @ Tulane is not a lock but we should definitely win that game.
@ Minnesota is very winnable and we'd have a good chance to beat LSU or Old Dom if we drew them in Atlantis. Lets account for one win between Minnesota and Atlantis, which I think is fair.
That leaves us having to go 3-14 in the conference games that aren't home vs DePaul just to get to 12.
Let's assume we get swept by Villanova, Xavier and Creighton, which is also fair.
The other home games are Butler, Gtown, SHU, Providence, and Marquette. Winning 3 of those 5 games is fair. That would make us 4-5 in conference at home for the season (fair), putting us at 13 wins already before we even get to the road games.
Then we have @ DePaul which we would probably be a pickem game. We can also steal 1 or 2 other road games of the 5 teams listed above putting us right around 14 or 15 wins.