Conference is so good that it is hard to name a top 5, but don't quibble with your list. Just think if Watson were still in the fold; he'd have to be in that top 5, probably over Foster or Sumner. With lots of season left, I could see certain of those guys dropping (Sumner, Foster, Delgado) and guys like Martin, Patton, Carrington or even Pryor working their way into the conversation.
I think Ponds, Patton, Howard or even Lovett could seize the "top newcomer" award.
With Watson out, I think POY is for Hart to lose and don't see that happening.