Providence predictions

Quote from: paultzman on January 24, 2017, 01:01:24 PM

Mike Hopkins –  ‏@pcbb1917

Providence opened as an 8.5-pt favorite over St. John. Friars are 5-3 ATS this season as…  http://pcbb1917.com/2017/01/24/opening-line-providence-st-johns-big-east-betting-odds-vegas …

That is a lot of points for 2 teams with similar skill levels.

It's a little high but we have looked pretty awful on the road lately. Young teams and road games usually mean a few extra points on the spread.

This might be SJU’s last decent/realistic (if you can call it that) chance to win on the road this year.  Hard to imagine winning at Butler, at Nova or at Creighton (even without Watson).  Marquette is starting to put it together and that will be very difficult.  Already lost to Georgetown and won at DePaul.  Seriously, they don’t win at the Dunk not sure if they will win another road game.  By realistic I only mean they are not significantly better than SJU especially at home.  But they should be favored and will probably win.

That's real. This is a game they need to win to be top of the bottom pack.

Quote from: fordham96 on January 24, 2017, 02:26:53 PM

This might be SJU’s last decent/realistic (if you can call it that) chance to win on the road this year.  Hard to imagine winning at Butler, at Nova or at Creighton (even without Watson).  Marquette is starting to put it together and that will be very difficult.  Already lost to Georgetown and won at DePaul.  Seriously, they don’t win at the Dunk not sure if they will win another road game.  By realistic I only mean they are not significantly better than SJU especially at home.  But they should be favored and will probably win.

That's real. This is a game they need to win to be top of the bottom pack.

Unless something changes we aren't winning any more games. We have to play much better or we lose the next 11.

Quote from: paultzman on January 24, 2017, 01:01:24 PM

Mike Hopkins –  ‏@pcbb1917

Providence opened as an 8.5-pt favorite over St. John. Friars are 5-3 ATS this season as…  http://pcbb1917.com/2017/01/24/opening-line-providence-st-johns-big-east-betting-odds-vegas …

That is a lot of points for 2 teams with similar skill levels.

The line is right. They are probably 4 points better than us on a neutral court (which may just be the difference between Cooley and Mullin) and then get the 4ish point home boost to the line

The Dunk has been a house of horrors for us over the years.  I am looking forward to match up of Cartwright/Lovett., but game will be won and lost on the boards.  The Franciscans 68, the Vincentians 60. .

We have to play much better or we lose

Thanks Nostradamus.

Quote from: TONYD3 on January 24, 2017, 04:08:16 PM

We have to play much better or we lose

Thanks Nostradamus.

My point foady, is some think we are entiltiled to wins. Like it will just happen. We play a few home games, probably win a few. Some even think we will be better next year just because we are older. If we the same shitty way on offense and 0 defense it won't matter if we have 12 seniors. Unless something changes, style of play or coaching change we are going to continue to be terrible.
I will by super bowl boxes. I might win some money. Just like St. John's might win a game or 2. Not good odds either of those things happening.

Ponds' 11 will steal it. Move over Danny Ocean.

The only way we keep Providence under 80 points is freeze the ball on our offensive end. Take time off the clock, limit the number of possessions. That's how we beat Syracuse before it became a dunkathon clinic.

Providence looks at us and sees a wide open paint and plenty of opportunities for rebounds. That will give the outside shooters additional confidence knowing their bigs have a good chance at offensive rebounds. On defense, Providence, will focus on Ponds primarily, Lovett secondarily. Bash's shots are like turnovers, he has to stop taking jumpers with 20 seconds on the clock, and Lovett has to be a better point guard. Hope I'm wrong.

Cooley and the Gang 85
Red Nor'easter 67

The only way we keep Providence under 80 points is freeze the ball on our offensive end. Take time off the clock, limit the number of possessions. That's how we beat Syracuse before it became a dunkathon clinic.

That isn't hardly how we beat Syracuse.  We beat Syracuse because we shared and protected the ball.  But, the main reason we beat Syracuse because we carved up their zone for good looks and hit shots at a high percentage (particularly, from outside). 

The Dunk has been a house of horrors for us over the years.  I am looking forward to match up of Cartwright/Lovett., but game will be won and lost on the boards.  The Franciscans 68, the Vincentians 60. .

Actually Lavin won back to back years in 2014 and 2015.

Quote from: redslope on January 24, 2017, 05:07:57 PM

The Dunk has been a house of horrors for us over the years.  I am looking forward to match up of Cartwright/Lovett., but game will be won and lost on the boards.  The Franciscans 68, the Vincentians 60. .

Actually Lavin won back to back years in 2014 and 2015.

Yep!  Lavin actually won 3 out of 4 games at Providence (2011, 2014, and 2015).  We probably would've beaten 'em during the 2012-2013 season (at Providence), if Harrison was available.  We ended up losing in a tight one (by three). 

Yup.  I was about to post this before you guys chimed in.  Our recent problems with Providence have been in big games at the Garden.  The "Obekpa" Big East tourney game during the 13-14 season, where we were down huge in what might have been a play-in game, made a spirited comeback (sparked by the second unit) and Karr missed the layup that would have put us ahead (I call it the Obekpa game because it is the one in which he refused to come in, as discussed during another recent thread).  And the absolute disaster in the 2014-2015 season where we got our doors blown off.

At Gtown has been the biggest house of horrors lately for us.

Yup.  I was about to post this before you guys chimed in.  Our recent problems with Providence have been in big games at the Garden.  The "Obekpa" Big East tourney game during the 13-14 season, where we were down huge in what might have been a play-in game, made a spirited comeback (sparked by the second unit) and Karr missed the layup that would have put us ahead (I call it the Obekpa game because it is the one in which he refused to come in, as discussed during another recent thread).  And the absolute disaster in the 2014-2015 season where we got our doors blown off.

At Gtown has been the biggest house of horrors lately for us.

+1

We win by 1. Ellison seals it with a free throw.

Quote from: prjohnnies on January 24, 2017, 09:01:35 PM

Yup.  I was about to post this before you guys chimed in.  Our recent problems with Providence have been in big games at the Garden.  The "Obekpa" Big East tourney game during the 13-14 season, where we were down huge in what might have been a play-in game, made a spirited comeback (sparked by the second unit) and Karr missed the layup that would have put us ahead (I call it the Obekpa game because it is the one in which he refused to come in, as discussed during another recent thread).  And the absolute disaster in the 2014-2015 season where we got our doors blown off.

At Gtown has been the biggest house of horrors lately for us.

+1

We win by 1. Ellison seals it with a free throw.

If that were to happen, here is the scenario: tie score, Ellison goes to the line for two. Misses the first. Misses the second but a lane violation called against Providence. Banks in the third without calling it. 

The Dunk has been a house of horrors for us over the years.  I am looking forward to match up of Cartwright/Lovett., but game will be won and lost on the boards.  The Franciscans 68, the Vincentians 60. .

actually providence is run by the dominicans so Vincentians 40  Dominicans 65

Quote from: TONYD3 on January 24, 2017, 01:21:57 PM

Quote from: paultzman on January 24, 2017, 01:01:24 PM

Mike Hopkins –  ‏@pcbb1917

Providence opened as an 8.5-pt favorite over St. John. Friars are 5-3 ATS this season as…  http://pcbb1917.com/2017/01/24/opening-line-providence-st-johns-big-east-betting-odds-vegas …

That is a lot of points for 2 teams with similar skill levels.

The line is right. They are probably 4 points better than us on a neutral court (which may just be the difference between Cooley and Mullin) and then get the 4ish point home boost to the line

Cooley is the most underrated great coach in the Big East. Always gets the most out of his teams.

My point foady, is some think we are entiltiled to wins. Like it will just happen.

Yeah, no one thinks that.

Some even think we will be better next year just because we are older.

No one thinks that either. Some people, myself included, think we'll be better next year because the players will have a year of experience playing d1 basketball together, and a year in the weight room, and a year in the system. And the staff will be a year older and wiser. I realize that you don't believe young people can learn - which is understandable, you being a teacher and all - but that's really the basis of pedagogy: that young people immersed in a particular discipline become more skilled through theory, practice, and repetition.

If we the same shitty way on offense and 0 defense it won't matter if we have 12 seniors.

Do you know many seniors Saint John's the three times they went to the tournament this century? Twenty seven. Perhaps you think that's a coincidence. I don't.

Quote from: TONYD3 on January 24, 2017, 05:47:51 PM

My point foady, is some think we are entiltiled to wins. Like it will just happen.

Yeah, no one thinks that.

Quote

Some even think we will be better next year just because we are older.

No one thinks that either. Some people, myself included, think we'll be better next year because the players will have a year of experience playing d1 basketball together, and a year in the weight room, and a year in the system. And the staff will be a year older and wiser. I realize that you don't believe young people can learn - which is understandable, you being a teacher and all - but that's really the basis of pedagogy: that young people immersed in a particular discipline become more skilled through theory, practice, and repetition.

Quote

If we the same shitty way on offense and 0 defense it won't matter if we have 12 seniors.

Do you know many seniors Saint John's the three times they went to the tournament this century? Twenty seven. Perhaps you think that's a coincidence. I don't.

Very good points. I agree 100% that players don't just get better because they get old but through maturation, practice and playing together more they do improve year to year and sometimes dramatically. Like Foad said look at our tournament teams and most tournament teams that aren't Kentucky or a blue blood and you will see they are littered with upper classmen who improved year to year.

This goes for the coaching staff too.  One year older is not going to make them that much better unless Mullin has someone around him to make him better.  If the players are following the way the staff teaches them, it won't matter if they are a year older if the fundamentals are not being taught properly.