Ponds is not worthy of a lottery pick or even a 1st round pick this year, but to think he can't develop into a lottery pick is so unfair to him. He needs to get stronger at getting to the basket? He gets to the basket with EASE right now against some top level teams. Look at the contact he took on the shot against Duke where he absorbed the hit and fixed the shot in mid-air to finish. He's also a very solid off the dribble three point shooter. He needs to do better at catching and shooting.
Ponds shot 37% from three last season on 6 attempts per game but people want to focus on a 17-game span and tell me he's not a good outside shooter? Since the Villanova game, Ponds is shooting 37% in the last six games. So couldn't that 17-game span be more easily tossed up to a sophomore slump/fatigue/more focus on him?
Here is Pond's sophomore season where his minutes and usage rate can be similarly compared to Kemba Walker's in his junior year.
Ponds: 36.2 mpg, 40% from the field on 17 attempts, 50% from 2 on 11 attempts, 23% from 3 on 6 attempts, 83% from the line on 5 attempts, 5 rebounds 4.7 assists, 2.6 stl, 2.4 TO, and 20.3 points with a true shooting % of 50%, an effective field goal percentage of 44%, a 28.6 assist %, a 10.5 turnover %, with a usage rate of 30.9%
Walker: 37.6 mpg, 43% from the field on 18 attempts, 47% from 2 on 12 attempts, 33% from 3 on 5 attempts, 81% from the line on almost 8 attempts, 5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.9 stl, 2.3 TO, and 23.5 pts with a true shooting % of 54%, an effective field goal percentage of 48%, a 28% assist percentage, a 9.5 turnover %, and 32.4% usage rate.
Ponds is very close as a sophomore to where Kemba Walker was as a junior and Kemba had a freshman Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier on his team. With those two, Kemba dragged UCONN to a mystifying Big East and National Title. Ponds with maybe only Simon as only other potential NBA player has dragged SJU to some very tight games despite far inferior talent. Ponds, I believe, is a better passer and scorer than Kemba was at the same stage in their careers.
It's all about how he develops this offseason. If he develops the ability to catch and shoot the 3, I believe he should be around 40% from 3 and if he can do a better job of drawing contact and getting to the line, I think his FG% could be above 45% with a 25 points per game average. I think if Simon can develop as a shooter and the improved interior play, Ponds will average 6 assists per game next year.
People want to complain about Ponds' D but I personally think it's game planning. Ponds is arguably our 3rd best rebounder so we made him sag off his man last year and this year to get him closer to rebounds. But even more so, our biggest game plan on defense is doubling the post to force turnovers. This means that Ponds has to leave his man and Ahmed or Simon either have to play help D at the 3 point line. This has lead to our league worst 3pt defense and the idea that Ponds is not a good defender.
With bigs that can actually play defense, he should be able to stick on his man more. I agree there are flaws in his game defensively, he does ball watch a little too much and he could be more engaged (although I'm sure they are telling him not to so he can save energy for offense). If Ponds can just play better team defense (which I think he will since he won't be asked to double the post so much next year), and develop as a catch and shoot guy as well as learning to create more contact when driving, I see no reason why he can't be Kemba Walker.
If he improves in those 3 very improvable areas, and he enters the draft next season, he'll have an almost identical scouting report to Kemba.
Great ability to get to the basket, good shooter, good passer, good playmaker, good rebounder. 6'1" 175/180lbs, Walker was born in May, Ponds was born in June, need to get better defensively.
Right now he's projected as the 56th pick in the 2019 Draft according to NBADraft.net and that hasn't been updated for the Duke game. I think he rises to 50th after that performance and could get to 35-40 by season's end.