Puke prediction thread

Mt. Sinai - 65
Mt. Zion -  84

The kid wears blue on the outside but is rooting red on the inside.

SJU-94
Duke-76

The Program- 88
Nerds- 84

Sham 40 piece

Duke leads big early, johnnies come back and lead big late but win close, LJ scores 30

Duke 94
SJU   79

SJU - 81
Duke - 75

First negative prediction all year.  Duke 88   SJU 85  Ponds goes nuts but not enough.

No prediction, but I'd take anything close to SJ + 10. I don't see Schrewsrhenki running it up against the only player he ever wanted that he didn't get.

No prediction, but I'd take anything close to SJ + 10. I don't see Schrewsrhenki running it up against the only player he ever wanted that he didn't get.

You'll be able to get much better than +10

You'll be able to get much better than +10

Yes, I almost mentioned your uncanny predictions, but I didn't want you to get a swelled head.

The problem (or the boon for gamblers) giving 18 ish (in basketball, you can give 30 or 40 in college football) is that end of the bench players are looking to wow the crowd against starters,  the team behind not often emptying the bench. Mullin, being Mullin, might. But I'd take the soul I wagered + 10 versus Georgetown double or nothing SJ plus 15, even at Cameron.

I didn't want you to get a swelled head.

Too late. I was dropped on my head one too many times

curious what the line would be, thinking anywhere between +13.5 - +16

83-81 St. John's

83-81 St. John's

Oh come on Marillac show some stones-pick us by 18 like you usually do! LOL

curious what the line would be, thinking anywhere between +13.5 - +16

Us - 91
Them - 90

My guess is the spread is somewhere in the range of +17 to +18.5.  I'll go with +17.5

Us - 91
Them - 90

My guess is the spread is somewhere in the range of +17 to +18.5.  I'll go with +17.5

What was it last year?

What was it last year?

12

12

Thanks. Why do you think 18?

Thanks. Why do you think 18?

There's a formula to these things. Not factoring in home court yet, Duke is about 20 points better than us per 100 possessions according to the analytics which is heavily used when setting lines. Both teams play pretty fast so this game estimates to finish at around 75 possessions (D1 average is 68 per game). So:

20 x .75 = 15

On a neutral court Duke would be 15 point favs over us, which is about the same as it was last year going into our game against them. Factor in a 3-4 point home court edge and you get a 18-19 point line at Cameron and about a 12 point line at MSG.

That was an oversimplified version of how a line is made so my guesses won't always be exact as there could be other variables in play that could move the line a couple points. Games with this big of a spread are more difficult to nail down. I wouldn't be surprised if the line opened and/or closed anywhere between 16 and 20

There's a formula to these things. Not factoring in home court yet, Duke is about 20 points better than us per 100 possessions according to the analytics which is heavily used when setting lines. Both teams play pretty fast so this game estimates to finish at around 75 possessions (D1 average is 68 per game). So:

20 x .75 = 15

On a neutral court Duke would be 15 point favs over us, which is about the same as it was last year going into our game against them. Factor in a 3-4 point home court edge and you get a 18-19 point line at Cameron and about a 12 point line at MSG.

That was an oversimplified version of how a line is made so my guesses won't always be exact as there could be other variables in play that could move the line a couple points. Games with this big of a spread are more difficult to nail down. I wouldn't be surprised if the line opened and/or closed anywhere between 16 and 20

A betting line is not an indication of how much Vegas feels one team will beat another by.  It is an arbitrary number (sure they use some metrics as a starting point) designed to provoke equal betting action on the favorite and the dog.  Nothing more...nothing less.