Are we dancing?

  • 137 replies
  • 16300 views
Are we dancing?
« on: February 06, 2021, 06:56:48 PM »
That we are firmly on the bubble in mid February and there isn't a thread on this already speaks volumes about expectations

After today's win, I think we are four wins away from a bid. Five, at most. Regardless, it seems achievable given how well we are playing. Do we get it done?

I am a realistic/skeptical longtime fan, but I am fired up and I like this team's chances.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2021, 06:59:46 PM by Gray Chudney »

Poison

  • *****
  • 16896
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2021, 10:02:30 PM »
This is a different team from a month ago. How often do we see this here?

Yeah, I think this is a tournament team. These kids want it.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2021, 10:13:41 PM by Poison »

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2021, 12:32:40 AM »
finish 10-10 in conference will do it as long as they win the games theyre supposed to and have one upset maybe SH or X

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2021, 07:59:56 AM »
finish 10-10 in conference will do it as long as they win the games theyre supposed to and have one upset maybe SH or X

.500 BE record normally is good enough for a bid but our non-conf SOS is unimpressive and the BE is down a bit this year. 11 or 12 wins might be required (including BET). Lunardi doesn’t even have us in his bracket right now, suggesting work needs to be done

A win at Hinkle this week puts us in position 

Johnny23

  • *****
  • 3277
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2021, 10:03:10 AM »
If we go 3-2 over the last 5 games in conference we should be in.

That brings us to 16-9 overall and 10-8 in the BE. If we go 2-3 down the stretch then we need to win at least one BE tourney game to get in, possibly two.

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2021, 12:55:23 PM »
If we go 3-2 over the last 5 games in conference we should be in.

That brings us to 16-9 overall and 10-8 in the BE. If we go 2-3 down the stretch then we need to win at least one BE tourney game to get in, possibly two.
We have 6 BE games left, 7 if Uconn gets rescheduled.

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2021, 01:57:42 PM »
I think beside the Nova game we are going to be favored in all remaining games. When is last time that has happened? @Butler could open up -1 or Pick and could see public back Butler at home and line change.

Johnny23

  • *****
  • 3277
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2021, 02:07:47 PM »
We have 6 BE games left, 7 if Uconn gets rescheduled.

We go 3-3 and we're probably in. If one of those 3 wins is against Nova then definitely in. 3-4 (+UConn) and we need to win a BE tourney game to get in.

Dan

  • *****
  • 1220
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2021, 02:11:18 PM »
As long as they win the games they should win, I think it should be enough. That and winning one BET game.

Poison

  • *****
  • 16896
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2021, 02:22:52 PM »
I don't envy the people who have to figure out where Xavier fits into the NCAA conversation. I think our momentum will keep us going further into the projected bracket, but yes, of course we have to finish strong. Usually, we do not. Every good team we've had since 99-00 hasn't had enough left to finish strong. It will be fascinating to see if that can finally change.

This season in some ways reminds of Lavin's first, where he brought the match up zone. At first, it was hit or miss, but the team bought in, and came together.

It looks like it's happening again, just not with seniors.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2021, 02:23:05 PM by Poison »

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2021, 05:34:26 PM »
Let’s keep winning, beat Butler at Hinkle. Also, tired of losing to Xavier.

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2021, 01:05:19 AM »
.500 BE record normally is good enough for a bid but our non-conf SOS is unimpressive and the BE is down a bit this year. 11 or 12 wins might be required (including BET). Lunardi doesn’t even have us in his bracket right now, suggesting work needs to be done

A win at Hinkle this week puts us in position 

10-10 is different this year because not many teams had great non conferences its basically all based on conference play this year

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2021, 09:27:18 AM »
10-10 is different this year because not many teams had great non conferences its basically all based on conference play this year

Good point. Bracketologists have a tough job handicapping the field this year. I'd certainly be nervous heading into selection Sunday if we top out at 10 BE wins.

Mountain West, A-10 and MVC might all be multi-bid conferences. Big 10 is looking like minimum 9 teams in (bubble team Indiana had a big win yesterday vs. Iowa). On the flip side, the American might only have Houston dancing. Syracuse and Duke are each a two week run away from playing into the bubble conversation. A lot of variables but 11 wins, in my view, makes us a good bet regardless.

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2021, 02:10:17 PM »
This team is not a bubble team even as of yet, lots to do if they plan on getting in the big dance.

jr49

  • ****
  • 755
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2021, 03:23:46 PM »
Are road wins gonna carry wt. this year?

Marillac

  • *****
  • 11224
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2021, 06:38:43 PM »
A win tonight and it’s more likely than not IMO.

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2021, 10:12:41 AM »
Mixed bag among other bubble teams yesterday. VCU beat Dayton on the road, Cuse beat NC State on the road, Penn State lost to Michigan State, Colorado State's game was postponed.

Wichita St., LSU, UCONN, Indiana, St. Louis are bubble teams in action tonight.

Need to beat DePaul, and win a minimum of two against X, PC, Seton Hall. Margin of victory will also matter since our NET is not strong relative to the other bubble teams. A win over Xavier will keep us firmly in the mix.

nudginator59

  • *****
  • 1437
  • It's better to be a Smart ass then a Dumb shart
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2021, 10:27:34 AM »
Is a week off a good thing or bad thing?
Cougar O' Malley

Johnny23

  • *****
  • 3277
Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2021, 10:36:51 AM »
4-2 and we're in. Above .500 in power conference and 17-10 record overall.

3-3 and we got some work to do in the BET.

If we don't makeup the UConn game, then 3-2 probably still gets us in. Although a win in the BET wouldn't hurt in this scenario.

Re: Are we dancing?
« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2021, 10:47:09 AM »
Is a week off a good thing or bad thing?

Was thinking about this, too. This team might benefit from being out of the national spotlight for a week or two. I think we have the right coach for this sort of moment