Caught you there, pmg. I do think this is a hard question in part because of what pmg brought up, actually. Felipe came up in a time when "consensus #1" didn't mean the same thing. What, were you reading Tom Konchanski? Was there a Rivals? I barely knew about the internet, so if SI tells me that a high school player is the next Jordan among men, I'm going to lean to believe it.
There's a lot more information about a player and his flaws, his entourage; a lot more extended hype and reaction to that hype. And consensus #1 has to do with the players around a guy as well - John Wall or whoever is considered #1 isn't as good, and doesn't have the pro potential of LeBron or Greg Oden.
Back to the question - Felipe will have the better college career because Lance will only stay a year, from what I hear and see. Dude has a movie about him. Got to maximize that celebrity. As far as a better freshman year - I can't see how Lance won't just be given the ball and kill it. He can handle, drive, and score, as well as dish. His usage rates are going to be astronomical, even if he's not always smart or team-centered about it.