Agree. I see a split in the NIT. If they perchance win both in Boston (BC isn't THAT strong this year) they likely lose both in NY. In fact if they lose one in Boston they have a better chance at going 3-1 (while reducing the SOS for the RPI) but that's not likely as they will likely end up facing Davidson. Agree too with losses to Miami and Duke. Va-Tech is the game I can go either way on. They're supposed to be pretty good and MSG offers no home court advantage during BE play much less the Holiday Festival so that game I feel will be the true indicator of the season. Of course if they don't come into that game 8-2 it may be the make or break game of the season. So OOC looks like 8-5 or 9-4.
In conference I see 6 likely wins with a chance of stealing 2 more but I don't see how the team, without above average progress from last year, can go .500 in conference play. If I split it down the middle I see 7-11 in conference with 15-16 or 16-15 overall.
Now if Pitino and Calhoun are serious and SJU is not who we think they are they all bets could be off. But most of all I'm just looking forward to them rolling the ball out on the floor and playing.
On a side note Davidson got jobbed being sent to Oklahoma in the Season Tip Off. They're head and shoulders better than BC and Georgia (both teams that SJU should be competitive with).
Generally, I view you as one of the more level headed and national in scope posters here.
a) Where do you see the marked improvement to the team? Or are you putting your faith simply in the natural maturation of the remaining ball players?
b) Given that we only play South Florida once, how are you accounting for the seven potential wins in the Big East?
c) What did you see last season that would warrant confidence in Malik Boothe? Or do you view the departures of Lawrence and Wright as additions by subtractions?
My OPINIONS on the questions posed:
a) Even in these days of early entry I still live by the Louie credo. The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores. Not matter if these kids came from Oak Hill, CHSAA or Podunk High the game they were playing before they got to the Big East only vaguely resembles the play they experienced last year. There will be some improvement by most and more improvement by some and that in and of itself will improve the level of play if not the record. Given the first line I also think there will be improvement because this year's team will not be relying on frosh anywhere near as much as last year's team though I hope Roberts and Edmondson do get to make contributions.
Also Mase playing for a full year (hopefully) with a year's experience playing with last year's frosh will help. He may be a somewhat limited player for a BE team's star but he brings more to the table than some give him credit for and he's in a "contract year". Oh and another big body to throw fouls at opposing big men.
b) I said 6 BE wins: H: Cincy, Rutgers, USF, SHU Away: SHU, Depaul. Then if the team can steal another one or two, either an upset at MSG or a surprise on the road or both then they achieve my optimistic 8 conference wins.
c) I definitely believe Geno = addition by subtraction. Would like to see a backup PG on the roster but believe that Malik even last year in limited minutes looked far better than Geno at running a team, anticipating play, defending opposing points, getting into the lane, and generally understanding the game. Did he make freshmen mistakes, of course he did but he's no longer a freshman. And it's not like Geno was a dead eye shooter so the team won't be missing his scoring too much. PG is an upgrade and that's the most important position on the floor.
Re Larry I was not a huge fan of though I do believe he would have brought one thing to this team - an outside threat. But when he wasn't shooting what was he doing? Answer, not much. I believe due to the overall lack of talent the past 4 years lots of folks made Larry out to be better than he was. There's a reason he transferred to the school he did and not a B10 or even MAC or Horizon League team closer to home. I appreciate all he did for the team the past couple years and would welcome his presence on the team as a designated shooter but he's not JJ Redick and I'm pretty sure if he couldn't start last year he wasn't going to start this year. I just hope a couple wings can shoot at least 35% from beyond the (new further) arc while playing D and contributing assists at the same time.