St John's is 9th in the Conference?

Have you all noticed that? 

Big East
Team   Conf. W-L   Tot. W-L
Syracuse   4-0   16-1
Marquette   4-0   15-2
Pittsburgh   3-0   15-0
Louisville   2-0   11-3
Connecticut   3-1   14-1
Notre Dame   3-1   12-3
Providence   3-1   11-5
Georgetown   2-2   11-3
Villanova   1-2   13-3
West Virginia   1-2   11-4
St. Johns (N.Y.)   1-2   10-5
South Florida   1-2   6-9
Cincinnati   0-3   10-6
Seton Hall   0-4   9-7
Rutgers   0-4   9-8
DePaul   0-4   8-9

Expecting that
- both Villanova and West Virginia will win some games;
- that Rutgers/ Seton Hall/ Cincy are at about the same level;
- that St. John's might be around the same class;
- that DePaul and South Florida are just terrible;

what do you predict for the bottom of the conference? 

DePaul and South Florida will likely be 15 + 16 (not in that order).  It might be that Seton Hall and Rutgers end up with worse conference records than the Johnnies... and perhaps Cincy too.  That will make the fate of the coaching staff a quandary for those who don't watch the program closely - you know, the "league was so hard this year, they were so young" folks.  What if St. John's ends up at #11 in conference?  Thoughts?

I had us winning 4 BE games when the schedule came out and I am sticking to it. The Notre Dame win just means we will lose to someone I thought we would beat. My guess is we lose to S Florida. Not sure where winning 4 games would put us in the standings at the end of the year?

I think DePaul is a win (then again... you never know); South Florida could be tough.  Let's say we split with Seton Hall, beat Rutgers, split against Cincy.  With a loss at DePaul, that's your 4.

I think DePaul is a win (then again... you never know); South Florida could be tough.  Let's say we split with Seton Hall, beat Rutgers, split against Cincy.  With a loss at DePaul, that's your 4.

5 Wins I think would be the most we could get. 5 BE wins would put us at 14-17. If we lose in the 1st round of the tourney that puts us at 14-18. With no Lance, would 14-18 be enough in year 5 for the admin to finally pull the trigger?

The team could get 6.  Maybe 7.  DePaul, South Florida, Seton Hall (twice? they are beatable), Rutgers, Cincy, along with Notre Dame is 7.  That's a danger zone there, in terms of pulling any triggers.  16-15, and a game against a weaker BE squad, then a loss to a real contender, so 17-16 (8-10 in conference).

The team could get 6.  Maybe 7.  DePaul, South Florida, Seton Hall (twice? they are beatable), Rutgers, Cincy, along with Notre Dame is 7.  That's a danger zone there, in terms of pulling any triggers.  16-15, and a game against a weaker BE squad, then a loss to a real contender, so 17-16 (8-10 in conference).

Norm's teams generally do not win on the road, so there is a good chance we lose all the away games on the schedule.

Quote from: peter on January 12, 2009, 02:47:29 PM

The team could get 6.  Maybe 7.  DePaul, South Florida, Seton Hall (twice? they are beatable), Rutgers, Cincy, along with Notre Dame is 7.  That's a danger zone there, in terms of pulling any triggers.  16-15, and a game against a weaker BE squad, then a loss to a real contender, so 17-16 (8-10 in conference).

Norm's teams generally do not win on the road, so there is a good chance we lose all the away games on the schedule.

In the four years prior Norm's teams have won 5 BE road games. South Florida twice, Rutgers twice and Cincy once.

Quote from: peter on January 12, 2009, 02:47:29 PM

The team could get 6.  Maybe 7.  DePaul, South Florida, Seton Hall (twice? they are beatable), Rutgers, Cincy, along with Notre Dame is 7.  That's a danger zone there, in terms of pulling any triggers.  16-15, and a game against a weaker BE squad, then a loss to a real contender, so 17-16 (8-10 in conference).

Norm's teams generally do not win on the road, so there is a good chance we lose all the away games on the schedule.

But - Cincy home (and away).  Seton Hall home (and away).  South Florida at home.  Rutgers at home. 

Quote from: peter on January 12, 2009, 02:47:29 PM

The team could get 6.  Maybe 7.  DePaul, South Florida, Seton Hall (twice? they are beatable), Rutgers, Cincy, along with Notre Dame is 7.  That's a danger zone there, in terms of pulling any triggers.  16-15, and a game against a weaker BE squad, then a loss to a real contender, so 17-16 (8-10 in conference).

Norm's teams generally do not win on the road, so there is a good chance we lose all the away games on the schedule.

Norms teams generally dont beat top 10 teams either. Things are going in the right direction

I was looking at the sched. the other day and I still think that after the first 10 BE games we will be 5-5.
Losses- @ PC, @ Pitt, Conn, @ Vill, @ WVU
Wins- ND, UC, RU, USF @ Hall

I think it's assuming a whole lot to say we beat all the doormats. Norm's teams have never been consistent enough to do that and -- after the Providence and Pitt performances -- I don't see any evidence that they will be this year.

As good as the BE is, it really is amazing how big the gap is between 1-10 and 11-16.

I may get blasted for this, but assuming we do finish in the 11-16 range, I don't really care where it is. All of the teams are about the same. It's when we can break into that top 10 and compete with teams like West Virginia and Villanova on a consistent basis (including on the road) that we'll know this thing is headed in the right direction.

/rambling

I think there is a difference between 15-16 and 11-14.  And I do believe that Seton Hall, Rutgers, and South Florida faced St. John's and caught W's - if last year's teams could beat doormats, why not this year's?  Only Seton Hall is appreciably tougher.  Rutgers has more talent but they can't put a beating on the weak area teams.

So I don't think it's assuming a lot to say we beat the doormats.  Cincy might win twice.

I think there is a difference between 15-16 and 11-14.  And I do believe that Seton Hall, Rutgers, and South Florida faced St. John's and caught W's - if last year's teams could beat doormats, why not this year's?  Only Seton Hall is appreciably tougher.  Rutgers has more talent but they can't put a beating on the weak area teams.

So I don't think it's assuming a lot to say we beat the doormats.  Cincy might win twice.

I agree.  I think we will take our share of beatings from the upper teams but I think we will beat the other doormats.

What will people be happy with for this season. I'm not talking be happy with year 5 but rather just this season with this team. Where do you set the bar for a successful season?

What will people be happy with for this season. I'm not talking be happy with year 5 but rather just this season with this team. Where do you set the bar for a successful season?

Well therein lies the dilema! 6 or 7 Be wins and a BET win would have them in the NIT. That however would most assuredly save Captain Caldor's job. Does 17 wins in year 5 with the Clueless One still in charge mean the program is heading in the right direction? I say no! In the real world if Slappy does not make the NIT he would be fired! In the fantasy world in which The Wizard of St John's is employed anything over 10 wins and no scandals will get Norm Rupp another extension.

What will people be happy with for this season. I'm not talking be happy with year 5 but rather just this season with this team. Where do you set the bar for a successful season?

Consistently competing with the middle-of-the-pack teams I mentioned like WVU and Villanova.

peter, I don't know where you get that we beat all the doormats last year. I think you're forgetting a home loss to an 11-19 DePaul team. Not to mention a 60-43 loss to a 13-19 Cincinnati club.

What will people be happy with for this season. I'm not talking be happy with year 5 but rather just this season with this team. Where do you set the bar for a successful season?

20 wins and and NCAA berth.   That should be the minimum goal for every team.

Quote from: Dave on January 13, 2009, 03:56:23 PM

What will people be happy with for this season. I'm not talking be happy with year 5 but rather just this season with this team. Where do you set the bar for a successful season?

Well therein lies the dilema! 6 or 7 Be wins and a BET win would have them in the NIT. That however would most assuredly save Captain Caldor's job. Does 17 wins in year 5 with the Clueless One still in charge mean the program is heading in the right direction? I say no! In the real world if Slappy does not make the NIT he would be fired! In the fantasy world in which The Wizard of St John's is employed anything over 10 wins and no scandals will get Norm Rupp another extension.

I'm not sure that guarantees them a NIT berth. If my memory serves me correctly I think every team with the exception of 3 teams had 20+ wins in NIT last season with those 3 teams all having 18-19 wins.

Quote from: Dave on January 13, 2009, 03:56:23 PM

What will people be happy with for this season. I'm not talking be happy with year 5 but rather just this season with this team. Where do you set the bar for a successful season?

20 wins and and NCAA berth.   That should be the minimum goal for every team.

Thats very vague and unrealistic.

Conference Standings, 07-08

10   Cincinnati   8   10   0.444   13   19   0.406
11   Seton Hall   7   11   0.389   17   15   0.531
12   Providence   6   12   0.333   15   16   0.484
12   DePaul   6   12   0.333   11   19   0.367
14   St. John's   5   13   0.278   11   19   0.367
15   South Florida   3   15   0.167   12   19   0.387
15   Rutgers   3   15   0.167   11   20   0.355

Note that St. John's is 14th, DePaul is tied for 12th, and Cincy's 10th.  DePaul I think was actually worse, but both DePaul and Cincy played a far better schedule.  St. John's took care of the teams below them.  Cincy, by contrast, beat Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova, and Syracuse, but lost to St. John's, DePaul and Providence.  That's inconsistent.  DePaul beat 'Nova, and mostly just stunk, but they had a better conference record; I'd say the two teams were on the same level last year.