Non-conference year turns on Detroit game

If SJU wants to have a winning non-conference season and a shot at a post season bid it probably comes down to the Detroit game on the road.  The Northeastern game hurts.  Not totally unexpected but hurt nonetheless because they have such a difficult schedule that they cannot afford to lose home non-conference games especially at Carnesecca to non-BCS schools even if those schools are better then average.  Here is the way I look at it.

2 games are near impossible for them to win at this point.  At Kentucky and at Duke.  That gets them to five losses.  Fordham at MSG they must win.  If for no other reason then to avenge last year's debacle at Rose Hill.  That game gets them to 5 wins.  UCLA at home is looking like a game they certainly can and should win.  UCLA is a mess right now and SJU should be better by then.  Gets you to 6 wins.

Detroit on the road is certainly a losable game.  No doubt.  But I think it could be the difference between 7-5 and 6-6.  Huge difference.

If SJU wants to have a winning non-conference season and a shot at a post season bid it probably comes down to the Detroit game on the road.  The Northeastern game hurts.  Not totally unexpected but hurt nonetheless because they have such a difficult schedule that they cannot afford to lose home non-conference games especially at Carnesecca to non-BCS schools even if those schools are better then average.  Here is the way I look at it.

2 games are near impossible for them to win at this point.  At Kentucky and at Duke.  That gets them to five losses.  Fordham at MSG they must win.  If for no other reason then to avenge last year's debacle at Rose Hill.  That game gets them to 5 wins.  UCLA at home is looking like a game they certainly can and should win.  UCLA is a mess right now and SJU should be better by then.  Gets you to 6 wins.

Detroit on the road is certainly a losable game.  No doubt.  But I think it could be the difference between 7-5 and 6-6.  Huge difference.

Agreed with your assessment.  Detroit lost their post presence in Holman and then his replacement recently went down for the year with an injury.  Neutralize McCallum and you win.

UCLA isn't a guarantee

UCLA isn't a guarantee

Neither is Fordham

UCLA isn't a guarantee

I'm gonna introduce Josh Smith to all the new MSG concessions

Quote from: Dave on November 27, 2011, 08:52:40 PM

UCLA isn't a guarantee

I'm gonna introduce Josh Smith to all the new MSG concessions

I dont think they have White Castle in LA

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

How does everyone feel about Sampson and Pelle now? Still feel like making excuses for them?

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

I think we have a better shot at Kentucky than Duke, Dawkins and Curry I think are going to kill us from the outside

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:07:24 PM

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

I think we have a better shot at Kentucky than Duke, Dawkins and Curry I think are going to kill us from the outside

Where were Dawkins and Curry last year?

How does everyone feel about Sampson and Pelle now? Still feel like making excuses for them?

I don't understand this point.  Nobody was naive to think that this 7 man rotation was going to be easy then throw in arguably as tough a schedule as their is in the country and it was going to be difficult.

UK and Duke are near impossible even with those guys.  Those teams never lose at home anyway even to elite top 5 teams.

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:10:10 PM

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:07:24 PM

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

I think we have a better shot at Kentucky than Duke, Dawkins and Curry I think are going to kill us from the outside

Where were Dawkins and Curry last year?

At MSG taking a backseat to Nolan Smith and Singler. Have you seen them play this year?

UCLA game is going to be interesting.  At home, SJU looking for some revenge after last year and Kyle A will almost certainly be in the building to see the team he chose and the team he did not.

Quote from: Moose on November 27, 2011, 09:12:18 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:10:10 PM

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:07:24 PM

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

I think we have a better shot at Kentucky than Duke, Dawkins and Curry I think are going to kill us from the outside

Where were Dawkins and Curry last year?

At MSG taking a backseat to Nolan Smith and Singler. Have you seen them play this year?

You obviously have not seen Kentucky play this year.

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:17:13 PM

Quote from: Moose on November 27, 2011, 09:12:18 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:10:10 PM

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:07:24 PM

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

I think we have a better shot at Kentucky than Duke, Dawkins and Curry I think are going to kill us from the outside

Where were Dawkins and Curry last year?

At MSG taking a backseat to Nolan Smith and Singler. Have you seen them play this year?

You obviously have not seen Kentucky play this year.

COrrect, I have not. Are they that much better than Duke? I just think outside shooting teams are going to kill us

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:18:45 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:17:13 PM

Quote from: Moose on November 27, 2011, 09:12:18 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:10:10 PM

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:07:24 PM

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

I think we have a better shot at Kentucky than Duke, Dawkins and Curry I think are going to kill us from the outside

Where were Dawkins and Curry last year?

At MSG taking a backseat to Nolan Smith and Singler. Have you seen them play this year?

You obviously have not seen Kentucky play this year.

COrrect, I have not. Are they that much better than Duke? I just think outside shooting teams are going to kill us

  Kentucky, Duke, and UNC look like the three best teams in the country so far to me, even with UNC losing last night. 

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:18:45 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:17:13 PM

Quote from: Moose on November 27, 2011, 09:12:18 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:10:10 PM

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:07:24 PM

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

I think we have a better shot at Kentucky than Duke, Dawkins and Curry I think are going to kill us from the outside

Where were Dawkins and Curry last year?

At MSG taking a backseat to Nolan Smith and Singler. Have you seen them play this year?

You obviously have not seen Kentucky play this year.

COrrect, I have not. Are they that much better than Duke? I just think outside shooting teams are going to kill us

So you guessed?  Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are locks as NBA top 10 picks.  That is an NBA frontline.  Lamb and Teague are not chopped liver either.

Bottom line is that the best I think SJU can hope for in non-conference is 7-5.  Looking at the schedule I think the most realistic scenario is 3-2 and that probably means beat Fordham, Detroit and UCLA with probable losses to UK and Duke.

Would you sign for that?  I would in a heartbeat.

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:20:28 PM

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:18:45 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:17:13 PM

Quote from: Moose on November 27, 2011, 09:12:18 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on November 27, 2011, 09:10:10 PM

Quote from: fordham96 on November 27, 2011, 09:07:24 PM

Nothing is a guarantee.  Technically UK and Duke are not guaranteed losses either.

All I am saying is that if you look at it realistically you say they have 3 true road non-conference games to play.  UK and Duke are games no one wins anyway.  So that leaves Detroit.  Not easy but again winnable.

My point is this.  Realistically the best they can hope for is 7-5.  The point is not to say that this game is guarantee or not.  Because if they lose to Fordham at home lets say then this season is simply a full blown rebuilding season anyway. 

I think we have a better shot at Kentucky than Duke, Dawkins and Curry I think are going to kill us from the outside

Where were Dawkins and Curry last year?

At MSG taking a backseat to Nolan Smith and Singler. Have you seen them play this year?

You obviously have not seen Kentucky play this year.

COrrect, I have not. Are they that much better than Duke? I just think outside shooting teams are going to kill us

So you guessed?  Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are locks as NBA top 10 picks.  That is an NBA frontline.  Lamb Teague are not chopped liver either.

WE might have the athletes to run with them for a bit.  A huge glaring weekness is guarding the 3 point shoteers, which Duke has plenty of. Im not so sure about Kentucky

UCLA will pound us inside...I wouldn't call that a likely win.  They also have time to get things together.  I would sign up for 7-5. 

I'm praying we can keep it respectable on Thursday.  Or at least hoping that Gathers and another 2 bigs see the potential of joining our other talent next year.