Well since I have probably watched more DUKE than any of you, I figured I'd give you guys my thoughts.
Duke is a very good team, but they are not an elite team consistently --- not yet at least. Their guard defense is the worst it has been in probably 15+ years, and offensively the flow is just not there. I blame a lot of the reason for the lack of offensive flow (and the defense) on the fact that Rivers, Curry, and Dawkins are Duke's 3 main guards...yet none of them are true PGs, none of them are lockdown defenders, and although Rivers and Dawkins exhibit elite athleticism, they are lazy on D (Dawkins much more so than Rivers). Duke operates best with Quin Cook (or Tyler Thornton) running the show if they are on, but both, ESPECIALLY Thornton, are liabilities offensively except for passing, and Thornton is undersized (though the best guard defender). This results in a Duke team that struggles to decide whether defense is most impt. from the guards, or offense. Doc Jr. is coming along is passing a lot better than he was originally (he was a 1 man show at various times earlier in the year), so by year's end I expect the Duke offense to be run much more smoothly with Austin at PG, but for Saturday, who knows. That being said, our zone D can force Austin into a lot of turnovers, goading him into drives/shots that arent there, but we HAVE to be careful so as not to give Curry and ESPECIALLY Andre Dawkins open looks. They will drain 3s all day if they are open, but if they are contested, it could be their undoing. Our D is KEY and cannot let up.
Inside Duke has a beast, a good all around player, and a superb athlete. Mason Plumlee is going to get his against us. No two ways about it. I predict he'll go for over 20+ and over 10+, as he has done for many teams. We really need Gift to stay out of foul trouble because if Harkless has to guard Mason, that could get dangerous (and get Moe in foul trouble). Mason has developed some nice basic post moves that he uses effectively, and is a very good passer from the post. Miles is a fantastic athlete, and is great at dunking and jumping --- but does not translate jumping into rebounding. He has no handle, and is basically going to finish anything where he has a semi clear path at the rim, and probably not do anything otherwise. Ryan Kelly is an excellent player with great skills and basketball sense, but needs to get stronger and often plays far too passive. He is somewhat of an X factor, if Ryan is playing well in addition to Mason and one of the guards, Duke is in a sweet spot and is unlikely to lose. I think our defense will be able to keep Ryan somewhat in check, but if we go with the zone, he is a threat to hit open 3s.
From an offensive perspective, Duke plays man 99% of the time so I expect them to on Saturday (though K would be smart to throw a little (or a lot) zone against us. This will be great for D'Angelo and Phil who shouldnt have too much trouble defensively from the Duke guards. Gift could do well, especially if Mason gets in foul trouble. Mason plays solid D, and both him and Plumlee can elevate and block shots. If the Plumlees are in foul trouble, that would be huge for GIft down low. Moe should have his way with Kelly, and possibly Miles as well.
I think we will play surprisingly well against Duke, but for the freshmen's first time in Cameron I expect there to be a point in the game where Duke and the crowd is too much for us. It could happen right away, it could happen at the end of the first half, or it could happen midway throguh the second. Those are the 3 key times that I see the crowd potentially overwhelming us. These kids are tough, but no one is prepared for Cameron until they have been there.
I predict Duke wins 69-58, but the game is often between 5-15 points. A solid effort by our guys, especially given the conditions, but not a blow out by any means. D'Angelo should do well. The key is getting 2 others to join him. We need 2 of Phil, Moe, and Gift to have big games for us. All have been inconsistent, and my guess is 1 of the other 3 REALLY shows up, 1 is just ok, and 1 we complain about after.
Very excited for the game --- my favorite of the year.