Coaching Carousel Begins

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #340 on: April 04, 2012, 09:19:26 PM »
A 60% success rate is stellar?  So if your favorite NBA team only gets a good player with 3 of every 5 first round picks you're happy?  I don't agree that's reasonable ROI or risk/reward for a teams valuable draft picks.  On a separate note David Stern was quoted today as saying if he could he'd add another year to make it 20 or 2 years removed.   Here's a quote:  "It's not that we say you have to go to college, it's that we say we would like a year to look at them and I think it's been interesting to see how the players do against first-class competition in the NCAAs and then teams have the ability to judge and make judgments, because high-ranking draft picks are very, very valuable."

Perhaps you could strengthen your arguement with a little research - what are the percentages for success in the pros for those that DO go to college first?  Looking back at the Knicks first rounder the last 15 years, thats Walter McCarty, John Wallace, Dontae Jones, John Thomas, Fredrick Weis, Donnel Harvey, Michael Sweetney, Channing Frye, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Mardy Collins, Wilson Chandler, Danillo Gallinari, and Jordan Hill.   

A 60% shot looks pretty good....I'm actually afraid to do the Nets - '95 would start with my own Bruins Ed O'Bannon - the likely #1 overall pick had he come straight out of high school.  Got the fullest college experience - College Player of the Year, NCAA champion, but it cost him his pro career, as he destroyed his leg as a freshman (they had to replace the ligaments in his leg with tendons from a freaking cadaver).  He could star at 2 games per week and a couple practice hours a day in college, but couldn't play back to back games, or 6 day a week practices in the pros.

You can't use the Knicks as an example (though I knew someone would).   But seriously, I would trust lots of guys on this board over 50% of the NBA GM's so you're right, but it doesn't mean any fan should be happy about it.   That said, I could do an analysis of first round picks when I can find some time and let you khow how it comes out but I'm not enough of an NBA fan to decide who would be considered a success or not.

Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #341 on: April 04, 2012, 10:31:59 PM »
Article still lists Dunlap as a candidate for CSU but my guess is with Dunlap travelling overseas with Lavin he probably is not a top tier candidate.

http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20120403/SPORTS/204030333/CSU-s-search-hoops-coach-high-gear?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Sports|s

crgreen

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #342 on: April 05, 2012, 01:13:40 AM »
A 60% success rate is stellar?  So if your favorite NBA team only gets a good player with 3 of every 5 first round picks you're happy?  I don't agree that's reasonable ROI or risk/reward for a teams valuable draft picks.  On a separate note David Stern was quoted today as saying if he could he'd add another year to make it 20 or 2 years removed.   Here's a quote:  "It's not that we say you have to go to college, it's that we say we would like a year to look at them and I think it's been interesting to see how the players do against first-class competition in the NCAAs and then teams have the ability to judge and make judgments, because high-ranking draft picks are very, very valuable."

Perhaps you could strengthen your arguement with a little research - what are the percentages for success in the pros for those that DO go to college first?  Looking back at the Knicks first rounder the last 15 years, thats Walter McCarty, John Wallace, Dontae Jones, John Thomas, Fredrick Weis, Donnel Harvey, Michael Sweetney, Channing Frye, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Mardy Collins, Wilson Chandler, Danillo Gallinari, and Jordan Hill.   

A 60% shot looks pretty good....I'm actually afraid to do the Nets - '95 would start with my own Bruins Ed O'Bannon - the likely #1 overall pick had he come straight out of high school.  Got the fullest college experience - College Player of the Year, NCAA champion, but it cost him his pro career, as he destroyed his leg as a freshman (they had to replace the ligaments in his leg with tendons from a freaking cadaver).  He could star at 2 games per week and a couple practice hours a day in college, but couldn't play back to back games, or 6 day a week practices in the pros.

You can't use the Knicks as an example (though I knew someone would).   But seriously, I would trust lots of guys on this board over 50% of the NBA GM's so you're right, but it doesn't mean any fan should be happy about it.   That said, I could do an analysis of first round picks when I can find some time and let you khow how it comes out but I'm not enough of an NBA fan to decide who would be considered a success or not.

Well, how 'bout the Celts then?  Starting with UCLA flop Jerome Moiso, Joe Johnson, Kendrick Brown (never played in the league) , Joe Forte (career was 25 games over 2 yrs),  Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen,  Gerald Green, Randy Foye, Jeff Green (traded away draft night), JR Giddings, Avery Bradley, Marshon Brooks (immediately traded for Jajaun Johnson!)....

desco80

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #343 on: April 05, 2012, 10:26:09 AM »
A 60% success rate is stellar?  So if your favorite NBA team only gets a good player with 3 of every 5 first round picks you're happy?  I don't agree that's reasonable ROI or risk/reward for a teams valuable draft picks.  On a separate note David Stern was quoted today as saying if he could he'd add another year to make it 20 or 2 years removed.   Here's a quote:  "It's not that we say you have to go to college, it's that we say we would like a year to look at them and I think it's been interesting to see how the players do against first-class competition in the NCAAs and then teams have the ability to judge and make judgments, because high-ranking draft picks are very, very valuable."

Perhaps you could strengthen your arguement with a little research - what are the percentages for success in the pros for those that DO go to college first?  Looking back at the Knicks first rounder the last 15 years, thats Walter McCarty, John Wallace, Dontae Jones, John Thomas, Fredrick Weis, Donnel Harvey, Michael Sweetney, Channing Frye, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Mardy Collins, Wilson Chandler, Danillo Gallinari, and Jordan Hill.   

A 60% shot looks pretty good....I'm actually afraid to do the Nets - '95 would start with my own Bruins Ed O'Bannon - the likely #1 overall pick had he come straight out of high school.  Got the fullest college experience - College Player of the Year, NCAA champion, but it cost him his pro career, as he destroyed his leg as a freshman (they had to replace the ligaments in his leg with tendons from a freaking cadaver).  He could star at 2 games per week and a couple practice hours a day in college, but couldn't play back to back games, or 6 day a week practices in the pros.

You can't use the Knicks as an example (though I knew someone would).   But seriously, I would trust lots of guys on this board over 50% of the NBA GM's so you're right, but it doesn't mean any fan should be happy about it.   That said, I could do an analysis of first round picks when I can find some time and let you khow how it comes out but I'm not enough of an NBA fan to decide who would be considered a success or not.

Well, how 'bout the Celts then?  Starting with UCLA flop Jerome Moiso, Joe Johnson, Kendrick Brown (never played in the league) , Joe Forte (career was 25 games over 2 yrs),  Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen,  Gerald Green, Randy Foye, Jeff Green (traded away draft night), JR Giddings, Avery Bradley, Marshon Brooks (immediately traded for Jajaun Johnson!)....

I think the numbers pretty much speak for themselves; High School draft picks worked out at a better rate.   Probably because only the very best are even considered.  But think about that; from '95 to 2005 %40 of the hs picks ended up being All Star level players.   I threw the other bunch in off the top of my head to say that at leas 60% but probably more end up being role players at worst. 

There are always counter-examples, like the Jonathan Benders and Kwame Browns of the world.   But I still stick to my original point: people have overestimated how "bad" the NBA is at selecting HS players, and how much of a risk it is for HS kids that enter the draft.

The truth is, when the NBA scouts think you're good enough to take out of HS... you have very high chances of being a successful pro. 
I don't know if the same correlation is true for one-and-done players.   Off the top of my head I think it's probably much worse actually. 

Bottom line, it would make a ton of sense for the NBA to adopt the rule college baseball uses:  If the pros want to draft you right out HS, you can.  But if you choose to go to college you aren't eligible again until after your Jr year.   
Then all the legitimate pros, the Anthony Davises, John Walls, etc.. who any GM in the world would have drafted out of HS, can go do their thing right away.   These kids are widely recognized as pros, and are ready to begin their careers, just like Arod and Straw were coming out HS.    Let them earn a living they've earned.
And then it keeps college programs in tack for a year or two longer, so you can actually build a team.  And guys who aren't "can't miss" pros, get a little more seasoning.  And you don't have the constant questions, does he go pro after his frosh season? if he stays, will he go pro after soph year?   
It gives college basketball more continuity and predictability.   While also letting the truly elite pursue their dreams. 

crgreen

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #344 on: April 05, 2012, 01:50:56 PM »
A 60% success rate is stellar?  So if your favorite NBA team only gets a good player with 3 of every 5 first round picks you're happy?  I don't agree that's reasonable ROI or risk/reward for a teams valuable draft picks.  On a separate note David Stern was quoted today as saying if he could he'd add another year to make it 20 or 2 years removed.   Here's a quote:  "It's not that we say you have to go to college, it's that we say we would like a year to look at them and I think it's been interesting to see how the players do against first-class competition in the NCAAs and then teams have the ability to judge and make judgments, because high-ranking draft picks are very, very valuable."

Perhaps you could strengthen your arguement with a little research - what are the percentages for success in the pros for those that DO go to college first?  Looking back at the Knicks first rounder the last 15 years, thats Walter McCarty, John Wallace, Dontae Jones, John Thomas, Fredrick Weis, Donnel Harvey, Michael Sweetney, Channing Frye, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Mardy Collins, Wilson Chandler, Danillo Gallinari, and Jordan Hill.   

A 60% shot looks pretty good....I'm actually afraid to do the Nets - '95 would start with my own Bruins Ed O'Bannon - the likely #1 overall pick had he come straight out of high school.  Got the fullest college experience - College Player of the Year, NCAA champion, but it cost him his pro career, as he destroyed his leg as a freshman (they had to replace the ligaments in his leg with tendons from a freaking cadaver).  He could star at 2 games per week and a couple practice hours a day in college, but couldn't play back to back games, or 6 day a week practices in the pros.

You can't use the Knicks as an example (though I knew someone would).   But seriously, I would trust lots of guys on this board over 50% of the NBA GM's so you're right, but it doesn't mean any fan should be happy about it.   That said, I could do an analysis of first round picks when I can find some time and let you khow how it comes out but I'm not enough of an NBA fan to decide who would be considered a success or not.

Well, how 'bout the Celts then?  Starting with UCLA flop Jerome Moiso, Joe Johnson, Kendrick Brown (never played in the league) , Joe Forte (career was 25 games over 2 yrs),  Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen,  Gerald Green, Randy Foye, Jeff Green (traded away draft night), JR Giddings, Avery Bradley, Marshon Brooks (immediately traded for Jajaun Johnson!)....

I think the numbers pretty much speak for themselves; High School draft picks worked out at a better rate.   Probably because only the very best are even considered.  But think about that; from '95 to 2005 %40 of the hs picks ended up being All Star level players.   I threw the other bunch in off the top of my head to say that at leas 60% but probably more end up being role players at worst. 

There are always counter-examples, like the Jonathan Benders and Kwame Browns of the world.   But I still stick to my original point: people have overestimated how "bad" the NBA is at selecting HS players, and how much of a risk it is for HS kids that enter the draft.

The truth is, when the NBA scouts think you're good enough to take out of HS... you have very high chances of being a successful pro.

Even you, citing Kwame Brown as a negative example, are missing a vital point - what is best for the kid.  Yes, turns out Kwame is just a journeyman player.  But by coming straight out of high school, he accellerated his 2nd contract by FOUR years.   And before GETTING to that 2nd contract, those first three years he pocked 12 million dollars.  He made another 5 1/2 million the first year of his 2nd contract - thats $17.5 million he would never have received by going to college.   AND....the difference between the 4 years of his 2nd contract and 1st contract is another $5 million.   So had he gone to college, it would have cost him over $22 million.   And his journneyman career?   So far it's paid him over $58 million dollars.   Including $6 million THIS season.

And it probably would have cost him considerably more than the 22 million referenced above.   4 years of college would have certainly showcased his shortcomings - dropped him well down in the 1st round, maybe even 2nd round.   He'd likely have started his NBA career at the Rookie minimum, rather than the 4 million he actually averaged his first 3 years.

Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #345 on: April 05, 2012, 02:25:07 PM »
A 60% success rate is stellar?  So if your favorite NBA team only gets a good player with 3 of every 5 first round picks you're happy?  I don't agree that's reasonable ROI or risk/reward for a teams valuable draft picks.  On a separate note David Stern was quoted today as saying if he could he'd add another year to make it 20 or 2 years removed.   Here's a quote:  "It's not that we say you have to go to college, it's that we say we would like a year to look at them and I think it's been interesting to see how the players do against first-class competition in the NCAAs and then teams have the ability to judge and make judgments, because high-ranking draft picks are very, very valuable."

Perhaps you could strengthen your arguement with a little research - what are the percentages for success in the pros for those that DO go to college first?  Looking back at the Knicks first rounder the last 15 years, thats Walter McCarty, John Wallace, Dontae Jones, John Thomas, Fredrick Weis, Donnel Harvey, Michael Sweetney, Channing Frye, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, Mardy Collins, Wilson Chandler, Danillo Gallinari, and Jordan Hill.   

A 60% shot looks pretty good....I'm actually afraid to do the Nets - '95 would start with my own Bruins Ed O'Bannon - the likely #1 overall pick had he come straight out of high school.  Got the fullest college experience - College Player of the Year, NCAA champion, but it cost him his pro career, as he destroyed his leg as a freshman (they had to replace the ligaments in his leg with tendons from a freaking cadaver).  He could star at 2 games per week and a couple practice hours a day in college, but couldn't play back to back games, or 6 day a week practices in the pros.

You can't use the Knicks as an example (though I knew someone would).   But seriously, I would trust lots of guys on this board over 50% of the NBA GM's so you're right, but it doesn't mean any fan should be happy about it.   That said, I could do an analysis of first round picks when I can find some time and let you khow how it comes out but I'm not enough of an NBA fan to decide who would be considered a success or not.

Well, how 'bout the Celts then?  Starting with UCLA flop Jerome Moiso, Joe Johnson, Kendrick Brown (never played in the league) , Joe Forte (career was 25 games over 2 yrs),  Troy Bell, Dahntay Jones, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen,  Gerald Green, Randy Foye, Jeff Green (traded away draft night), JR Giddings, Avery Bradley, Marshon Brooks (immediately traded for Jajaun Johnson!)....

I think the numbers pretty much speak for themselves; High School draft picks worked out at a better rate.   Probably because only the very best are even considered.  But think about that; from '95 to 2005 %40 of the hs picks ended up being All Star level players.   I threw the other bunch in off the top of my head to say that at leas 60% but probably more end up being role players at worst. 

There are always counter-examples, like the Jonathan Benders and Kwame Browns of the world.   But I still stick to my original point: people have overestimated how "bad" the NBA is at selecting HS players, and how much of a risk it is for HS kids that enter the draft.

The truth is, when the NBA scouts think you're good enough to take out of HS... you have very high chances of being a successful pro.

Even you, citing Kwame Brown as a negative example, are missing a vital point - what is best for the kid.  Yes, turns out Kwame is just a journeyman player.  But by coming straight out of high school, he accellerated his 2nd contract by FOUR years.   And before GETTING to that 2nd contract, those first three years he pocked 12 million dollars.  He made another 5 1/2 million the first year of his 2nd contract - thats $17.5 million he would never have received by going to college.   AND....the difference between the 4 years of his 2nd contract and 1st contract is another $5 million.   So had he gone to college, it would have cost him over $22 million.   And his journneyman career?   So far it's paid him over $58 million dollars.   Including $6 million THIS season.

And it probably would have cost him considerably more than the 22 million referenced above.   4 years of college would have certainly showcased his shortcomings - dropped him well down in the 1st round, maybe even 2nd round.   He'd likely have started his NBA career at the Rookie minimum, rather than the 4 million he actually averaged his first 3 years.

Good points by both of you.  Obviously the kids coming out of HS are the best available so they, in theory, should have the highest success rate even if a Korleone Young or Leon Smith popped in every once and a while.  Looking at the RSCI rankings during the HS days bears that out.  2005 was the last class to go straight to the NBA and 8 of the top 18 did so.  Only other early declarer appears to be some guy named Ricky Sanchez.

Re Kwame, yes he has benefited financially by getting to the league early.  But he was a #1 pick, he couldn't do any better.  My position has always been if you're going to go in the lottery or close you should jump even if you're not ready or at your peak but if you're in the bottom third and you can move up into the top 2/3's you'll make up the one year in salary during your first contract and benefit exponentially in your second if you're not a bust, which none of these kids ever believe they're going to be.

Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #346 on: April 05, 2012, 09:37:47 PM »
Goodman is reporting that Larry Eustachy, currently at Southern Miss, is a candidate at CSU.

Moose

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #347 on: April 05, 2012, 09:44:08 PM »
Goodman is reporting that Larry Eustachy, currently at Southern Miss, is a candidate at CSU.

CSU sororities throw a party....
Remember who broke the Slice news

goredmen

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #348 on: April 05, 2012, 10:36:05 PM »
Goodman is reporting that Larry Eustachy, currently at Southern Miss, is a candidate at CSU.

isnt that a step down?

Moose

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #349 on: April 05, 2012, 10:38:27 PM »
Goodman is reporting that Larry Eustachy, currently at Southern Miss, is a candidate at CSU.

isnt that a step down?

Depends if 'party school' is a factor in the decision making process.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2012, 10:38:50 PM by Moose »
Remember who broke the Slice news

paultzman

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #350 on: April 06, 2012, 11:09:05 AM »
The one step ahead of posse theory!

“@GoodmanCBS: TCU has targeted LSU coach Trent Johnson, sources told CBSSports -- http://t.co/DeCGTRwh

gman

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #351 on: April 06, 2012, 11:33:52 AM »
The one step ahead of posse theory!

“@GoodmanCBS: TCU has targeted LSU coach Trent Johnson, sources told CBSSports -- http://t.co/DeCGTRwh

It seems like every time he has one good year at a program he uses it to jump ship.  25-9 and sweet 16 at Nevada, leaves.  28-8 and sweet 16 at Stanford, leaves.  Rebounds from 11-20 to 18-14 at LSU, leaves (granted his first year was very good but with someone's players).  It is like he is afraid he won't be able to repeat his performance.

paultzman

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #352 on: April 06, 2012, 02:21:03 PM »
“@TheRecruitScoop: RT @GaryParrishCBS: Isiah Thomas has been removed as coach at Florida International.”

Probably in a bunk bed at James Dolan's house.

Moose

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #353 on: April 06, 2012, 02:24:42 PM »
“@TheRecruitScoop: RT @GaryParrishCBS: Isiah Thomas has been removed as coach at Florida International.”

Probably in a bunk bed at James Dolan's house.

This guy is the epitome of failure.
Remember who broke the Slice news

paultzman

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #354 on: April 06, 2012, 02:26:37 PM »
“@TheRecruitScoop: RT @GaryParrishCBS: Isiah Thomas has been removed as coach at Florida International.”

Probably in a bunk bed at James Dolan's house.

This guy is the epitome of failure.

And ruin

Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #355 on: April 06, 2012, 02:37:42 PM »
The one step ahead of posse theory!

“@GoodmanCBS: TCU has targeted LSU coach Trent Johnson, sources told CBSSports -- http://t.co/DeCGTRwh

It seems like every time he has one good year at a program he uses it to jump ship.  25-9 and sweet 16 at Nevada, leaves.  28-8 and sweet 16 at Stanford, leaves.  Rebounds from 11-20 to 18-14 at LSU, leaves (granted his first year was very good but with someone's players).  It is like he is afraid he won't be able to repeat his performance.

Yeah but in this case he would clearly be taking a step down.  Again the Greg McDermott/Steve Alford theory.  Get out before leaving is no longer "voluntary."

Tubby Smith leaving UK for Minnesota is also another great example of this.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2012, 04:23:01 PM by fordham96 »

paultzman

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Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #356 on: April 06, 2012, 03:17:52 PM »
“@TheRecruitScoop: RT @GaryParrishCBS: Isiah Thomas has been removed as coach at Florida International.”

Probably in a bunk bed at James Dolan's house.

This guy is the epitome of failure.

Great line by Vacc!

“@MikeVacc: So on the same day the #Knicks give Donnie Walsh permission to talk to other teams, FIU essentially does the same to Isiah. Uh oh.”

Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #357 on: April 06, 2012, 03:55:23 PM »
Uh oh. Isiah  to take over Knicks again?  The more people tell Dolan this would be crazy the more likely he is to do it.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2012, 03:55:56 PM by Celtics11 »

Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #358 on: April 06, 2012, 08:20:34 PM »
And the musical chairs continues. Trent Johnson leaves LSU for TCU now creating an opening at LSU:

http://m.star-telegram.com/star/db_284817/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=VqbOFMuh


Re: Coaching Carousel Begins
« Reply #359 on: April 07, 2012, 12:14:44 AM »
I was told that before this season, Trent Johnson thought he would be fired at the end of the season.  I don't know if the NIT appearance saved his job, but he apparently left before they could run him out.  I'm sure with TCU going to the Big 12, they are willing to spend the money.