2012-2013 Expectations

NCAAa is our goal as fans, but I do not like it when a team sets that as their goal. Their goal is to win the national championship.

No, their goal is to win the next game and every game after that which coincidentally would mean a national championship, right?

Quote from: desco80 on June 13, 2012, 04:26:19 PM

Goal ? - NCAA berth, or a win in the tourny.   Good goals.

What do I think will happen?  - bubble team, NIT bid 

I know it's not his M.O., but I think coach can do this team a favor and load the early part of the schedule with "beatable" teams.  We play in Charleston, and host South Carolina, but other than that I'd like to see very manageable games.   No St Marys, no A-10 teams, no Detroit or Leigh type teams.   We'll have at least 3 meaningful games between the Charleston tournament and the BE/SEC thing, that's more than enough.
Both of the last two seasons we've seen it takes new players half a season or more to get comfortable in the matchup zone.   We return a few starters, but are going to have a lot of fresh faces too ... if we're going to be a bubble team it'll behoove us not to have avoidable losses to mid-majors in November/December.

IF you really think we're a bubble team, then you should be hoping for the toughest possible schedule.  This is an era when 25 win teams are excluded from the Dance for weak scheduling, while 17 and 18 win teams with tough schedules get their tickets punched.

Remember, I live in Blacksburg, home of Virginia Tech - where a team can finish 4th in the ACC, win 23 games, sweep North Carolina, and still end up in the NIT.

Maybe Pitt and Cuse will lift the ACC from mid-major status, and those 23 wins will get Va.Tech in. If not the A-10 has some teams the ACC can go after. I was surprised the ACC did not offer Ohio a spot. Stony Brook might help them lift that soft baseball league they have. Sorry, but my dis-like for the ACC might be showing.

Quote from: crgreen on June 13, 2012, 04:56:58 PM

Quote from: desco80 on June 13, 2012, 04:26:19 PM

Goal ? - NCAA berth, or a win in the tourny.   Good goals.

What do I think will happen?  - bubble team, NIT bid 

I know it's not his M.O., but I think coach can do this team a favor and load the early part of the schedule with "beatable" teams.  We play in Charleston, and host South Carolina, but other than that I'd like to see very manageable games.   No St Marys, no A-10 teams, no Detroit or Leigh type teams.   We'll have at least 3 meaningful games between the Charleston tournament and the BE/SEC thing, that's more than enough.
Both of the last two seasons we've seen it takes new players half a season or more to get comfortable in the matchup zone.   We return a few starters, but are going to have a lot of fresh faces too ... if we're going to be a bubble team it'll behoove us not to have avoidable losses to mid-majors in November/December.

IF you really think we're a bubble team, then you should be hoping for the toughest possible schedule.  This is an era when 25 win teams are excluded from the Dance for weak scheduling, while 17 and 18 win teams with tough schedules get their tickets punched.

Remember, I live in Blacksburg, home of Virginia Tech - where a team can finish 4th in the ACC, win 23 games, sweep North Carolina, and still end up in the NIT.

Maybe Pitt and Cuse will lift the ACC from mid-major status, and those 23 wins will get Va.Tech in. If not the A-10 has some teams the ACC can go after. I was surprised the ACC did not offer Ohio a spot. Stony Brook might help them lift that soft baseball league they have. Sorry, but my dis-like for the ACC might be showing.

Hey, when I moved here it was an A-10 school.  Then Big East.  LOVED the Hokie/Pitt matchups twice a year - chance to hang with Ben Howland (I'd known Jerry Pimm since he was an undergrad at USC, so I've known Howland (very casually) since he became Jerry's assistant at UCSB in 1982....

The ACC move made sense logistically, I guess.  But I'd have preferred we'd stayed in the BE.....

Goal has to be NCAA.....

The speculation abpout Lavin, all the ineligibilities and transfers aside I enjoyed the team last year. It was obvious that they were going to struggle but it was still fun watching the kids. I truly believe that some of you put out these ridiculous expectations just so you can whine when they are not met. Yes I expect the Soph's to play better and the deph will help. But we lost the best player from a 13 win team that had trouble putting up 60 points.
Could they sneek into the tourney? Yes, it is possible and I would not be shocked. Could they play better score more but still only win 15 games? Yes and that would not shock me either.
Most likely a 4 or 5 game improvement seems reasonable and that puts us in the NIT and should be considered a success. Anything better is gravy and depending on the circumstances even a more modest improvement over last season would  not be a failure.

The speculation abpout Lavin, all the ineligibilities and transfers aside I enjoyed the team last year. It was abvious that they were going to struggle but it was still fun watching the kids. I truly believe that some of you put out these ridiculous expectations just so you can whine we they are not met. Yes I expect the Soph's to play better and the deph will help. But we lost the best player from a 13 win team that had trouble putting up 60 points.
Could they sneek into athe tourney? Yes, it is possible and I would not be shocked. Could they play better score more but still only win 15 games? Yes and that would not shock me either.
Most likely a 4 or 5 game improvement seems reasonable and that puts us in the NIT and should be considered a success. Anything better is gravy and depending on the circumstances even a more modest improvement over last season would  not be a failure.

I've had it in my head that it was pretty much NCAA or bust this coming season.  While I still feel that the NCAA should be an attainable goal, you did help put it in perspective, wasju.  This team was...well...bad.  Obviously the depth has been addressed, but we did lose our best player, and we don't know who is going to score.  It is certainly possible that the new acquisitions can mesh with the old guard and our scoring will pick up and we will win upwards of 23 games.  However, it's also possible (and probably more likely) that the team does take time to come together, that we still go through our scoring droughts, and we win somewhere between 16-19 games.  On the bubble late into the season is what I will expect, anything more will be gravy.  Anything less, I'll live and look forward to a bright future.

The speculation abpout Lavin, all the ineligibilities and transfers aside I enjoyed the team last year. It was abvious that they were going to struggle but it was still fun watching the kids. I truly believe that some of you put out these ridiculous expectations just so you can whine we they are not met. Yes I expect the Soph's to play better and the deph will help. But we lost the best player from a 13 win team that had trouble putting up 60 points.
Could they sneek into athe tourney? Yes, it is possible and I would not be shocked. Could they play better score more but still only win 15 games? Yes and that would not shock me either.
Most likely a 4 or 5 game improvement seems reasonable and that puts us in the NIT and should be considered a success. Anything better is gravy and depending on the circumstances even a more modest improvement over last season would  not be a failure.

Reasonable assessment WASJU!

NCAA all the way.  Too much talent to be denied.

With more players we will be able to extend our defensive pressure. The increase in offence will come from creating transition opportunities off our defence. Dom Amir, Jakarr & Orlando our super athletic and will be a highlight film every night in the open court.

We chalenge will be our Half court offence.

No we don't have Moe, but we have talent, size, depth and most of all coaching that can get these guys well together.  I think we'll be an NCAA team this year and surprise many outside the SJU sphere who think we'll stink.  It won't be as strong as coming year's when we are even more experienced, but I think we can make the NCAA's and maybe even advance as Lavin's teams do well late in the season when everything is clicking.

Quote from: we are sju on June 14, 2012, 09:59:59 AM

The speculation abpout Lavin, all the ineligibilities and transfers aside I enjoyed the team last year. It was abvious that they were going to struggle but it was still fun watching the kids. I truly believe that some of you put out these ridiculous expectations just so you can whine we they are not met. Yes I expect the Soph's to play better and the deph will help. But we lost the best player from a 13 win team that had trouble putting up 60 points.
Could they sneek into athe tourney? Yes, it is possible and I would not be shocked. Could they play better score more but still only win 15 games? Yes and that would not shock me either.
Most likely a 4 or 5 game improvement seems reasonable and that puts us in the NIT and should be considered a success. Anything better is gravy and depending on the circumstances even a more modest improvement over last season would  not be a failure.

Reasonable assessment WASJU!

Definately agree with WASJU's assesment.   Don't create unreasonable expectations.   
Yesterday poison said the team's goal should always be a national championship.  I understand that philosophy, but if the staff always gives kids a "goal" in the beginning of the season that is never met ... then those speeches and slogans become kind of meaningless and kids start to tune coaches out.  But when you set goals just beyond what you think you can do... and then you achieve them.   That gives guys confidence.
Don't shoot too low, but goals should be different than dreams.   

And on another note Red2395 is absolutely right ... half court offense will be the challenge.  Can't say that enough.   

I would be pretty shocked if we weren't at least on the bubble this year. Right now this is a defense first team. Our matchup zone with Obekpa and Jakarr playing down low with Dom should be a force, and even last year we forced a lot of turnovers which could lead to a lot of fast break points. I think D'Angelo will be an all first team big east guard this year too, and will carry the load with scoring. But for a team that was absolutely abysmal last year from 3, adding a pure shooter like Borgault should help too, and help spread the floor for our slashers. I just think the team is just too talented, and deep to set the bar any lower than an NCAA appearance.

is this team as good or better than our ncaa 10/11 team? i think on paper we are just as good.  with a ton more depth.  NCAA is a realistic goal.

is this team as good or better than our ncaa 10/11 team? i think on paper we are just as good.  with a ton more depth.  NCAA is a realistic goal.

Good comparison to look at & discuss

      10/11              12/13                    Advantage ?
g    Hardy             Harrison                      even ?
g    Horne/Boothe  Greene/Branch            even ? Horne had a strong senior year
sf   Kennedy         Garrett/Pointer            D J, but Amir & Dom not far behind
f    Brownlee/Polee   Sampson/Sanchez     Even(should be advantage Sampson by BE tourn)
pf/c Burrell/Evans    Gift/Obekpa       Even/unknown- Obekpa should be advantage by end of year

Thats not counting Felix & Marco who will provide quality depth in their 1st year

I "expect" NCAA tourn bid & 0 or 1 win- NIT is a minor disappointment.
We are not a team of freshman any more- Only 2 pure frosh -Chris & Felix of 11 players

Quote from: redmen4life on June 14, 2012, 03:19:21 PM

is this team as good or better than our ncaa 10/11 team? i think on paper we are just as good.  with a ton more depth.  NCAA is a realistic goal.

Good comparison to look at & discuss

      10/11              12/13                  Advantage ?
g   Hardy             Harrison                      even ?
g   Horne/Boothe  Greene/Branch            even ? Horne had a strong senior year
sf  Kennedy         Garrett/Pointer            D J
f   Polee/Burrell   Sampson/Sanchez          Sampson(might be big advantage by BE tourn)
f   Brownlee/Evans    Gift/Obekpa    Even @ start of year but  "   "   "       "   "     for Obekpa

Thats not counting Felix & Marco who will provide quality depth in their 1st year

I "expect" NCAA tourn bid & 0 or 1 win- NIT is a minor disappointment.
We are not a team of freshman any more- Only 2 pure frosh -Chris & Felix of 11 players

If we are talking about this upcoming year I'd give the advantage to Hardy over Harrison, and Brownlee/Shizzy over Gift/Obekpa, and the last one's not even close.

Quote from: redmen4life on June 14, 2012, 03:19:21 PM

is this team as good or better than our ncaa 10/11 team? i think on paper we are just as good.  with a ton more depth.  NCAA is a realistic goal.

Good comparison to look at & discuss

      10/11              12/13                  Advantage ?
g   Hardy             Harrison                      even ?
g   Horne/Boothe  Greene/Branch            even ? Horne had a strong senior year
sf  Kennedy         Garrett/Pointer            D J
f   Polee/Burrell   Sampson/Sanchez          Sampson(might be big advantage by BE tourn)
f   Brownlee/Evans    Gift/Obekpa    Even @ start of year but  "   "   "       "   "     for Obekpa
Thats not counting Felix & Marco who will provide quality depth in their 1st year

The POTENTIAL for 2013 to be superior to 2011 is enourmous.   2011s roster featured ONE former top 100 ranked HS player.   2013 COULD field top 75 talent at every starting Spot:  Obekpa (RSCI #69) at Center, Jakarr Sampson (RSCI #40) at PF, Sir Dom Pointer (RSCI #35) at SF, D'Angelo Harrison (RSCI #47) at SG, Jamal Branch (RSCI #52) at PG,  plus Amir Garrett (RSCI #75) off the bench at multiple positions, and even possibly Michael Chandler (RSCI #55) backing up the post.   That would be more top 75 recruits on the squad than we had PLAYERS on the squad last year!  And that doesn't even include JC ALL-AMERICANS  Gods Gift  and Sanchez. (is bringing in a JC AA equivalent to bringing in a top 100 High Schooler?  I know I thinks so!  So bump that to NINE top 100 level talents).   And that doesn't even include our returning starting PG Phil Green, or incoming "sleeper" recruits Balamou and Bourgalt.

And just as importantly as their overall rankings oout of high school:  Branch, Pointer, Garrett and Obekpa have all been ranked as top TEN DEFENSIVE recruits in their respective classes - With Branch rated as the #1 defender in HIS class.   That is HUGE for the teams overall potential.

My gut feeling is (given the t4eaching and development skills of this coaching staff) that by end of the season, 2013 will be FAR superior to 2011.   

"If we are talking about this upcoming year I'd give the advantage to Hardy over Harrison, and Brownlee/Shizzy over Gift/Obekpa, and the last one's not even close."

Hardy's senior season & Harrison's as a frosh had very very similar stats in identical minutes.

I changed the forward comparisons.
But I agree the 10/11 bigs are "slightly" ahead of current guys in Oct,
 but I think by Feb/March 2013 Sanchez/Jakarr/Chris O will be better

Quote from: stevep502 on June 14, 2012, 04:53:39 PM

Quote from: redmen4life on June 14, 2012, 03:19:21 PM

is this team as good or better than our ncaa 10/11 team? i think on paper we are just as good.  with a ton more depth.  NCAA is a realistic goal.

Good comparison to look at & discuss

      10/11              12/13                  Advantage ?
g   Hardy             Harrison                      even ?
g   Horne/Boothe  Greene/Branch            even ? Horne had a strong senior year
sf  Kennedy         Garrett/Pointer            D J
f   Polee/Burrell   Sampson/Sanchez          Sampson(might be big advantage by BE tourn)
f   Brownlee/Evans    Gift/Obekpa    Even @ start of year but  "   "   "       "   "     for Obekpa
Thats not counting Felix & Marco who will provide quality depth in their 1st year

The POTENTIAL for 2013 to be superior to 2011 is enourmous.   2011s roster featured ONE former top 100 ranked HS player.   2013 COULD field top 75 talent at every starting Spot:  Obekpa (RSCI #69) at Center, Jakarr Sampson (RSCI #40) at PF, Sir Dom Pointer (RSCI #35) at SF, D'Angelo Harrison (RSCI #47) at SG, Jamal Branch (RSCI #52) at PG,  plus Amir Garrett (RSCI #75) off the bench at multiple positions, and even possibly Michael Chandler (RSCI #55) backing up the post.   That would be more top 75 recruits on the squad than we had PLAYERS on the squad last year!  And that doesn't even include JC ALL-AMERICANS  Gods Gift  and Sanchez. (is bringing in a JC AA equivalent to bringing in a top 100 High Schooler?  I know I thinks so!  So bump that to NINE top 100 level talents).   And that doesn't even include our returning starting PG Phil Green, or incoming "sleeper" recruits Balamou and Bourgalt.

And just as importantly as their overall rankings oout of high school:  Branch, Pointer, Garrett and Obekpa have all been ranked as top TEN DEFENSIVE recruits in their respective classes - With Branch rated as the #1 defender in HIS class.   That is HUGE for the teams overall potential.

My gut feeling is (given the t4eaching and development skills of this coaching staff) that by end of the season, 2013 will be FAR superior to 2011.   

Agree cr.  This team has sooo many things that the 2011 team didn't.  More guard depth and talent overall.  More height, shotblocking.    That team was good but not nearly as deep with talent as the one we're fielding this year.  We simply have more in every spot.  Harrison is IMO not giving up an inch to Hardy.  Harrison played like an upperclassmen last year.  This year, I expect him even better physically and mentally.  I have great faith in our staff. We simply have one of the best staffs out there developing talent.  It was carefully crafted and I really do think they'll have them on the same page.  NCAA is a very realistic goal.  Once you get there, of course you want to go all the way.

"If we are talking about this upcoming year I'd give the advantage to Hardy over Harrison, and Brownlee/Shizzy over Gift/Obekpa, and the last one's not even close."

Hardy's senior season & Harrison's as a frosh had very very similar stats in identical minutes.

I changed the forward comparisons.
But I agree the 10/11 bigs are "slightly" ahead of current guys in Oct,
 but I think by Feb/March 2013 Sanchez/Jakarr/Chris O will be better

You say "bigs" but Brownlee was like 6'6".  I think we should wait and see Sanchez, Obekpa, Jakarr and Gift first.  I personally think by mid season this years group will be ahead.  They're bigger, faster and deeper. 

Quote from: redmen4life on June 14, 2012, 03:19:21 PM

is this team as good or better than our ncaa 10/11 team? i think on paper we are just as good.  with a ton more depth.  NCAA is a realistic goal.

Good comparison to look at & discuss
      10/11              12/13                    Advantage ?
g    Hardy             Harrison                      even ?
g    Horne/Boothe  Greene/Branch            even ? Horne had a strong senior year
sf   Kennedy         Garrett/Pointer            D J, but Amir & Dom not far behind
f    Brownlee/Polee   Sampson/Sanchez     Even(should be advantage Sampson by BE tourn)
pf/c Burrell/Evans    Gift/Obekpa       Even/unknown- Obekpa should be advantage by end of year

Thats not counting Felix & Marco who will provide quality depth in their 1st year

I "expect" NCAA tourn bid & 0 or 1 win- NIT is a minor disappointment.
We are not a team of freshman any more- Only 2 pure frosh -Chris & Felix of 11 players

Steve, I agree with some of this, but let's not forget that Lavin's first was the most experienced we've ever seen.
The Johnnies will have more athleticism, but most of this team will be playing their first season of D1 ball.

I give the overall advantage to the 10-11 squad.

There are a lot of unknowns on this team. What can Marco give us from downtown? How ready is Sanchez to play in the BE? Is Balamou good enough to contribute right away? Will Sampson fill Moe's shoes? Will Branch run the offense like the top 50 recruit he was? Will Obekpa be as effective against BE players as he was in HS?