What will keep Lavin here is if we can pay him. If a new basketball-only conference nets us a smaller tv payout, then we won't be able to afford him and his staff - and that's when he'll leave.
Don't fool yourself into thinking this is about prestige of conference.
We could be in a conference with Fordham, Manhattan, and LIU and if we paid a coach the same or more than he'd get from a major program then said coach would be inclined to stay.
The $64,000 question is whether the "new" Big East, or a yet to be devised basketball-only conference, will earn us the same amount of tv revenue.