Is NCAA tourn in reach?

Not to look (way) too far ahead.

But right now we're 12-7 (4-3 in conf) with 11 conf games remaining

If we manage to against Hall, Depaul So Fla & Prov go    3-1
                @Cuse &  @ Louisville                                  0-2
Can we against  Uconn, Pitt, Marq, @ Georgetown & @ND pull out 2-3
That would be 17-13 (8-8). Definite NIT bid, need to win 2 or 3 in BE tourn to dance.

But if we gelled & went 18-12 (9-7) 1 win in BE tourn could do it ?

Not to look (way) too far ahead.

But right now we're 12-7 (4-3 in conf) with 11 conf games remaining

If we manage to against Hall, Depaul So Fla & Prov go    3-1
                @Cuse &  @ Louisville                                  0-2
Can we against  Uconn, Pitt, Marq, @ Georgetown & @ND pull out 2-3
That would be 17-13 (8-8). Definite NIT bid, need to win 2 or 3 in BE tourn to dance.

But if we gelled & went 18-12 (9-7) 1 win in BE tourn could do it ?

Beat Seton Hall!

Two things I think prevent us from completely gelling and pulling off an impressive February and March.  As much as we're starting to play better;

     1) I don't know that we can put away victories.  Even if we had a lead against a good team... I'm not confident at all in this team 'sealing the deal' when up 10 with 5 minutes to play.

and, 2) I don't know if we can score enough to keep up with Syracuse, Louisville, and even Georgetown, or some of our other opponents. 

But if we keep improving, who knows.. stranger things have happened.  And as CR is quick to point out, Lavin coaches for March, not November.. his teams generally play strongest at the end of the season.
But I would worry that a little success and our young team might start putting the cart before the horse.  If they don't concentrate on the little things, we could get out rebounded by 15, for exampe - and that's the game.  Against any opponent.   Same goes with guarding an opposing 3 point shooter.  If we don't have our focus on Sunday, Fuquan and Oliver, or Cosby, they could come out and hit 4 or 5 three-pointers each, and again that's the ballgame, because we won't be able to climb out of that type of hole.
Bottom line, we're still learning to win, and our margin of error is very small.   We'll grab a couple wins down the stretch, but I'd be shocked if there weren't frustrating losses as well.   

We have no margin for error.

If we dont beat Seton Hall and Depaul then in my opinion we have next to no chance.

If things break right I can see 18 wins Hall,Depaul,Uconn,USF,Pitt and Providence.

Then we'd need at least 1 in the BET I think.

Damn what I wouldnt give for just 1 of the Nova,Rutgers or UNC Asheville or even San Fran losses

Two things I think prevent us from completely gelling and pulling off an impressive February and March.  As much as we're starting to play better;

     1) I don't know that we can put away victories.  Even if we had a lead against a good team... I'm not confident at all in this team 'sealing the deal' when up 10 with 5 minutes to play.

and, 2) I don't know if we can score enough to keep up with Syracuse, Louisville, and even Georgetown, or some of our other opponents. 

But if we keep improving, who knows.. stranger things have happened.  And as CR is quick to point out, Lavin coaches for March, not November.. his teams generally play strongest at the end of the season.
But I would worry that a little success and our young team might start putting the cart before the horse.  If they don't concentrate on the little things, we could get out rebounded by 15, for exampe - and that's the game.  Against any opponent.   Same goes with guarding an opposing 3 point shooter.  If we don't have our focus on Sunday, Fuquan and Oliver, or Cosby, they could come out and hit 4 or 5 three-pointers each, and again that's the ballgame, because we won't be able to climb out of that type of hole.
Bottom line, we're still learning to win, and our margin of error is very small.   We'll grab a couple wins down the stretch, but I'd be shocked if there weren't frustrating losses as well.   

One of those concerns is shooting 60% at FT line in BE games thus far. I certainly think we are improving on defensive end, but stagnant offense remains a concern. Spotty perimeter shooting seems a constant as well. We'll see. "One game at a time" trite saying seems to apply.

Quote from: desco80 on January 24, 2013, 05:32:40 PM

Two things I think prevent us from completely gelling and pulling off an impressive February and March.  As much as we're starting to play better;

     1) I don't know that we can put away victories.  Even if we had a lead against a good team... I'm not confident at all in this team 'sealing the deal' when up 10 with 5 minutes to play.

and, 2) I don't know if we can score enough to keep up with Syracuse, Louisville, and even Georgetown, or some of our other opponents. 

But if we keep improving, who knows.. stranger things have happened.  And as CR is quick to point out, Lavin coaches for March, not November.. his teams generally play strongest at the end of the season.
But I would worry that a little success and our young team might start putting the cart before the horse.  If they don't concentrate on the little things, we could get out rebounded by 15, for exampe - and that's the game.  Against any opponent.   Same goes with guarding an opposing 3 point shooter.  If we don't have our focus on Sunday, Fuquan and Oliver, or Cosby, they could come out and hit 4 or 5 three-pointers each, and again that's the ballgame, because we won't be able to climb out of that type of hole.
Bottom line, we're still learning to win, and our margin of error is very small.   We'll grab a couple wins down the stretch, but I'd be shocked if there weren't frustrating losses as well.   

One of those concerns is shooting 60% at FT line in BE games thus far. I certainly think we are improving on defensive end, but stagnant offense remains a concern. Spotty perimeter shooting seems a constant as well. We'll see. "One game at a time" trite saying seems to apply.

Ain't that the truth Paultz.  One game at a time.   
In December we would've laughed if someone said Dom would be playing better than anyone on the team right now.   
One foot in front of the other, let's see what Sunday brings

Gotta win the next 2.  In addition, if we are in a favorable spot at the end of the season, this is the type of team with the depth and talent to be able to win the BET if we get a bye somehow.  Let's just beat Seton Hall and see what happens.

I see so many similarities between how this season is shaping up and what the team did two years ago.  They, too, started out slowly and lost some games that they should not have lost.  Then things came together and we had a fantastic season.  I know that that team was full of Seniors but, if you don't accept the "young" excuse for our struggles, then you shouldn't use it to say that we can't have similar success.  It is coming together and anything is possible. 

Perhaps I'm over-managing my own expectations, but I think this team is on course for a 17 win season and a decent shot at an NIT bid. Anything more would, IMO, be gravy. Bad early season loses killed us this year, and next year the guys on the team will carry that sting to ensure it doesn't happen again. Next year... 

Perhaps I'm over-managing my own expectations, but I think this team is on course for a 17 win season and a decent shot at an NIT bid. Anything more would, IMO, be gravy. Bad early season loses killed us this year, and next year the guys on the team will carry that sting to ensure it doesn't happen again. Next year... 

think 17 would guarantee an NIT bid at worst.

Not to look (way) too far ahead.

But right now we're 12-7 (4-3 in conf) with 11 conf games remaining

If we manage to against Hall, Depaul So Fla & Prov go    3-1
                @Cuse &  @ Louisville                                  0-2
Can we against  Uconn, Pitt, Marq, @ Georgetown & @ND pull out 2-3
That would be 17-13 (8-8). Definite NIT bid, need to win 2 or 3 in BE tourn to dance.

But if we gelled & went 18-12 (9-7) 1 win in BE tourn could do it ?

In this scenario, and as someone said earlier, how big do those 2 BE loses look to Nova and Rutgers. 6-1 in BE play with those and the UNCA game would make us 15-4. Dont think we are a top 30 team or would even be ranked as one but come the end of the year those 3 Ws we dont have could make a difference in the sju tournament perception

If we finish top 6 in the BE, we're in.

NIT at best, don't think we have a shot at NCAA at all. I would still be happy with this year.

Quote from: stevep502 on January 24, 2013, 05:09:20 PM

Not to look (way) too far ahead.

But right now we're 12-7 (4-3 in conf) with 11 conf games remaining

If we manage to against Hall, Depaul So Fla & Prov go    3-1
                @Cuse &  @ Louisville                                  0-2
Can we against  Uconn, Pitt, Marq, @ Georgetown & @ND pull out 2-3
That would be 17-13 (8-8). Definite NIT bid, need to win 2 or 3 in BE tourn to dance.

But if we gelled & went 18-12 (9-7) 1 win in BE tourn could do it ?

In this scenario, and as someone said earlier, how big do those 2 BE loses look to Nova and Rutgers. 6-1 in BE play with those and the UNCA game would make us 15-4. Dont think we are a top 30 team or would even be ranked as one but come the end of the year those 3 Ws we dont have could make a difference in the sju tournament perception

Excellent point.  But if you play enough tight games like that you're going to lose some.   No way we play 4 2pt games and win all of them.   So we could just as easily have won against Nova and Rutgers the first time, but we could just have easily lost to Cincinnati and ND. 
Can't play all these 1 possession games, you're bound to lose a few. 

We should have won the Nova game in regulation by about 6, and the same for the Rutgers game.   Problem is, we just weren't good enough on those nights.  If we had, and had beaten UNCA; we would be sitting VERY pretty I think.   Maybe even getting votes, just outside the top 25. 

Quote from: redmen not storm on January 24, 2013, 06:58:05 PM

Quote from: stevep502 on January 24, 2013, 05:09:20 PM

Not to look (way) too far ahead.

But right now we're 12-7 (4-3 in conf) with 11 conf games remaining

If we manage to against Hall, Depaul So Fla & Prov go    3-1
                @Cuse &  @ Louisville                                  0-2
Can we against  Uconn, Pitt, Marq, @ Georgetown & @ND pull out 2-3
That would be 17-13 (8-8). Definite NIT bid, need to win 2 or 3 in BE tourn to dance.

But if we gelled & went 18-12 (9-7) 1 win in BE tourn could do it ?

In this scenario, and as someone said earlier, how big do those 2 BE loses look to Nova and Rutgers. 6-1 in BE play with those and the UNCA game would make us 15-4. Dont think we are a top 30 team or would even be ranked as one but come the end of the year those 3 Ws we dont have could make a difference in the sju tournament perception

Excellent point.  But if you play enough tight games like that you're going to lose some.   No way we play 4 2pt games and win all of them.   So we could just as easily have won against Nova and Rutgers the first time, but we could just have easily lost to Cincinnati and ND. 
Can't play all these 1 possession games, you're bound to lose a few. 

We should have won the Nova game in regulation by about 6, and the same for the Rutgers game.   Problem is, we just weren't good enough on those nights.  If we had, and had beaten UNCA; we would be sitting VERY pretty I think.   Maybe even getting votes, just outside the top 25. 

+1

Ever since lavin changed up the line up things have been going much better. The bright spot is that we barely lost by 2 to Rutgers but beat them the next time around. I am still catious until we beat another rank team besides con and ND. We always seem to beat them.

I meant Cincinnati...not UCONN.

Quote from: stevep502 on January 24, 2013, 05:09:20 PM

Not to look (way) too far ahead.

But right now we're 12-7 (4-3 in conf) with 11 conf games remaining

If we manage to against Hall, Depaul So Fla & Prov go    3-1
                @Cuse &  @ Louisville                                  0-2
Can we against  Uconn, Pitt, Marq, @ Georgetown & @ND pull out 2-3
That would be 17-13 (8-8). Definite NIT bid, need to win 2 or 3 in BE tourn to dance.

But if we gelled & went 18-12 (9-7) 1 win in BE tourn could do it ?

Beat Seton Hall!

Period.  This should be their only thought.

BTW-That win over RU in terms of RPI was top 50 believe it or not.  Not sure how long that will last.

Quote from: paultzman on January 24, 2013, 05:10:08 PM

Quote from: stevep502 on January 24, 2013, 05:09:20 PM

Not to look (way) too far ahead.

But right now we're 12-7 (4-3 in conf) with 11 conf games remaining

If we manage to against Hall, Depaul So Fla & Prov go    3-1
                @Cuse &  @ Louisville                                  0-2
Can we against  Uconn, Pitt, Marq, @ Georgetown & @ND pull out 2-3
That would be 17-13 (8-8). Definite NIT bid, need to win 2 or 3 in BE tourn to dance.

But if we gelled & went 18-12 (9-7) 1 win in BE tourn could do it ?

Beat Seton Hall!

Period.  This should be their only thought.

BTW-That win over RU in terms of RPI was top 50 believe it or not.  Not sure how long that will last.

Agreed!!  Hearing Jakarr talking about the "next 2" games, scares me.  They should focus on Seton Hall and only Seton Hall!

For us however, it's definitely nice to be talking about this.  I think if we win 3 of the next 4 we will have a very realistic shot at making the NCAA's.

Not to look (way) too far ahead.

But right now we're 12-7 (4-3 in conf) with 11 conf games remaining

If we manage to against Hall, Depaul So Fla & Prov go    3-1
                @Cuse &  @ Louisville                                  0-2
Can we against  Uconn, Pitt, Marq, @ Georgetown & @ND pull out 2-3
That would be 17-13 (8-8). Definite NIT bid, need to win 2 or 3 in BE tourn to dance.

But if we gelled & went 18-12 (9-7) 1 win in BE tourn could do it ?

'
We're positioned better this year than we were when we made it 2 years ago.   Better record after 19 games, with a weaker Big East than we were facing in 2011.   And a YOUNG team still improving by leaps and bounds, instead of a Senior Laden team  that was as good as it was going to get.   (That could hurt or help us going forward.  Has Sir Dom really turned a corner?  Can we see consistency from D'lo and Jakarr?).   I still expect to see massive improvement and eventualy CONSISTENT outstanding play from Branch over the next 10 to maybe 20 games....