It's also very dependent on how many of the favorites in the mid major conferences with their conference tournaments...if there are a bunch of upsets from teams who wouldn't have made it to the dance otherwise and the favorite in that conference gets an at large....teams like St. John's are the ones who feel that. Root for the favorites in the mid major conferences, that'll help St. John's.
They need to keep winning, and a win from either Syracuse or Louisville would be enormous, while improbable. They need to take the other game from ND, and beat Providence and Marquette. Obviously they have to take out USF. That would put them at 19-11, 11-7 BE record. Take one in the BET and I think that would be enough. Two would lock it in. Again, shocker mid majors gaining automatic bids could change all that, but that's the way I see it. Since the San Fransisco/Ashville debacle, they've done a good job of beating who they need to beat, Rutgers loss aside.
That Rutgers loss might be the one that really kills them. That and the Villanova game. An understable loss, but those two games go slightly differently and they could be 9-2 in conference right now. Then again, they also could have lost to Depaul, Cincy, or Seton Hall if things went slightly differently, so it's no use talking about it.