The dawn of a new season. For many sports fans this is a time of hope. For me, a lifelong fan of among others the Detroit Lions and Saint John's Red Whatevers, it's the time right before my hopes are dashed.
If it were up to me the starting five would be: Jordan, Harrison, Pointer, Sampson and Sanchez, with various minutes spread between Branch (more) and Greene (fewer) in the back court, and Obekpa and Gift in the front court. Other than Balamou I wouldn’t care if the rest of them played a minute. But if what we saw in the pre season is any indication this won't be. Instead we'll play small, with the 1-3 spots split between the 4 true guards and Pointer. What we won't do is press all over the court 40 minutes of hell style, which certain posters bring up every year as if its even a remote possibility. Saint John’s has never played that way and Lavin's teams have never played that way and won't now. Instead I expect to see what we saw last year. On offense, a break if its there and if not a lot of pointless passing and weaving before someone tries to take someone off the dribble. On defense we'll play man half the time and get beat in various junk defenses the other half.
Regarding the new players, I've been very impressed by Jordan in a limited sample: he's the sort of guard who usually goes to Syracuse. We have not had a big agile point guard like him, well, ever. Hopefully he stays two years. Sanchez also looked good in the limited time I saw him - unlike many savants I actually have to see the players play before knowing if they can - but any talk of him starting right now for the Utah Jazz - I forget who said that last year, someone - is insane. His upside seems to be that he'll be as good as James Southerland. If he was a freshman in four years he might be as good as Billy Owens. But since he's already nearing retirement age, not. Max Hooper is Bourgault with a jump shot and less of a likelihood to collaborate with the Nazis. He might be the spot up shooter Saint John's fans have been longing for since the McIntyre brothers retired, but to my mind if our offense hinges on Hooper hitting some threes we're screwed anyway.
Of the returning players I think Harrison has a monster, first team BE sort of year. Sampson should match or slightly improve his numbers from last year, although I do worry that Lavin has him sitting out at the three point line on the wing, rather than at the foul line, where Sanchez has been installed. Pointer is a year away still from being a complete wrecking ball. Obekpa will block a bunch of shots and grin like a complete idiot at inappropriate times. I'll be interested in seeing whether his jump hook - which last year seemed designed to concuss the opposing team as it caromed off the front rim - has improved. I was impressed by GG in the exhibition games, which only reinforced what I remember from two years ago - he's big, he runs the floor well, he hustles, and he finishes around the basket. I would not be surprised if he made a significant contribution, much to the chagrin of poster Desco, who will be left to dine on crow. Better that Desco had taken the path chosen by certain other SJ fans, which is to post both good things and bad things about all the players and then two years later PLUS ONE the posts that were correct as evidence of your basketball acumen.
One area I don't expect improvement in is coaching. Lavin was a dunce last year and will be a dunce this year and next and the year after that. That means that we'll see the same - and this is me giving him the benefit of the doubt - eccentric strategies, substitutions, and use of time outs that we've seen over the past several. Don't get me wrong, sad sack Saint John's is lucky to have Lavin as head coach, but he's an imbecile.
I think we go into the BE opener vs Xavier with 2 losses: Wisconsin and Syracuse. I'm not going to pretend that I've watched enough Butler and Cretin games to make any sort of serious prediction - I don't even know what sort of creature Cretin's mascot is, although if it were up to me it'd be some sort of drooling lummox - but I figure we sweep DePaul, the Hall and possibly Stevens-less Butler and split with the rest of them, except the one team that sweeps us. My guess there is Georgetown, who seems to have our number recently.
Which puts us at about 11-7 in the BE. Don't know what place that is, maybe 5th ish, but who cares about the preseason. Add to that the 10 ridiculous cupcake wins Lavin has lined up makes about 21-9, and lets say we lose one we shouldn't have - because, you know, we are Saint John's - and that makes it 20-10.
Should be enough to make the tournament. What's the ceiling? Assuming natural maturation and with the right draw they could make the round of 16. I'd give them zero chance of advancing beyond that. Next year though, this team could contend for the title. Unfortunately this team won't be around next year.