ESPN's Blunt but honest assessment of last year's team. Don't agree with the some of the factors described below that are critical for the success of this year's team (e.g., Gift's return to the team):
St. John's Red Storm
2012-13: 17-16 (8-10)
In-conference offense: 0.92 points per possession (14th)
In-conference defense: 0.97 points allowed per possession (7th)
With a block percentage that ranked second in the nation (18.4) -- led by one-man SWAT team Chris Obekpa (15.
-- the 2012-13 Red Storm were extremely adept at keeping the ball out of the basket. Unfortunately that prowess also extended to their offensive game as well.
Projected starting lineup
If you're betting on the Johnnies to finish in the top half of the Big East in 2013-14, you're betting on head coach Steve Lavin making a big-time course correction when his team has the ball. In 2012-13, Lavin's first season on the sidelines after recovering from prostate cancer, the Red Storm produced at just a 0.98-points-per-possession clip, well below the Division I average of 1.00.
If there were a case study to be done in inefficient offense, SJU would be a prime candidate. The Johnnies have talented players (Jakarr Sampson and D'Angelo Harrison to name two), but they have yet to form a consistent offensive threat. St. John's finished No. 2 in the nation in point distribution from 2-point range, but that's not a figure showing how adept the Red Storm were at scoring inside the arc. Rather, it's a testament to how infrequently they got to the foul line (28.9 FTA/FGA, No. 327 nationally) and how poorly they shot when they did find their way to the stripe (64.0 percent, No. 317). And if you think that horror show is grizzly, you may want to avert your eyes when St. John's shoots from behind the arc. Only four teams in the nation shot worse than the Johnnies' 27.1 percent from long distance.
On the positive side, St. John's seldom turned the ball over, boasting the No. 17 offensive turnover rate in the land last season. Of course, the Red Storm's ability to protect the rock only allowed them to chuck it at the basket, which all too often resulted in the same net result as a turnover.
The Storm seemed to settle for shots rather than dictating to the defense last season. As a team, St. John's spotted up for a jumper on 497 possessions last season, per Synergy Sports Technologies. Of Harrison's 290 shot attempts, 239 of them were either jumpers or runners. Even the taller Sampson took jumpers on 172 of his 361 shot attempts. So St. John's two most used offensive options were taking jumpers or runners on 68.5 percent of their shot attempts, and they hit just 20 percent of them.
The key for the Johnnies in 2013-14 won't be to improve their shooting percentages so much as it will be to get to the foul line with aggressive drives to the basket. In 2010-11 the Red Storm posted a free throw rate of 44.2, the 38th-best mark in Division I. They converted 71 percent of those shots and rode a 21-win season into the NCAA tournament. To that end, with the ball in their hands, Sampson and Harrison need to play less like Marcus Hatten and Anthony Mason and more like Dwight Hardy (41.8 FT rate in 2011-12) and D.J. Kennedy (59.2). Sampson upping his 64 percent foul shooting wouldn't hurt, either.
St. John's was a young, young team last season -- only Northern Illinois, Dartmouth and Texas had less experienced rosters -- and increased maturity and decision-making could go a long way in the campaign ahead. So too could the return of God'sgift Achiuwa (9 points, 5.6 rebounds per game in 2011-12) from last season's redshirt year, and the debut of 6-9 forward Orlando Sanchez, who won his eligibility battle with the NCAA.
Also helping the Johnnies in their get-to-the rim endeavor will be stud freshman Rysheed Jordan, the No. 3 point guard in the 2013 recruiting class and No. 17 prospect overall in the ESPN 100. While he likely won't reverse the Red Storm's recent shooting trends from distance, he has the speed and the frame to get to the rack and absorb contact, something St. John's badly needs if it wants to do more than merely weather its first season in the new Big East.