Bracketology

Latest from Lunardi this morning...They did a quick segment on the game today, Seth Greenberg picked us to win.

Last 4 In

Saint Joseph's
Dayton
BYU
Arkansas

First 4 Out

California
Minnesota
St. John's
Providence

Wait.....I see this. Looks like it's all different. This is way different then what it's been the past few days.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Last Four Byes
Oregon
Xavier
Saint Joseph's
Brigham Young

Last Four In
Arkansas
Tennessee
Dayton
Nebraska

First Four Out
California
Providence
Minnesota
Florida State

Next Four Out
Missouri
St. John's
Georgetown
Louisiana Tech

Per Lunardi, I think this is a better explanation of the bubble ( this was posted before yesterdays game, so it doesn't include G'town and anybody else who got upset)

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas

OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

This is why I don't think just beating PC gets us there. If you assume Lunardi is the best at this, and is accurate, we need help to get in and beating PC doesn't knock out somebody ahead of us. So in addition to winning, we need a couple of the teams ahead of us to crap the bed AND we have to hope no 7-18 Cinderella wins their conference tourney.

Win today and major scoreboard watching tonight.

Per Lunardi, I think this is a better explanation of the bubble ( this was posted before yesterdays game, so it doesn't include G'town and anybody else who got upset)

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas

OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

This is why I don't think just beating PC gets us there. If you assume Lunardi is the best at this, and is accurate, we need help to get in and beating PC doesn't knock out somebody ahead of us. So in addition to winning, we need a couple of the teams ahead of us to crap the bed AND we have to hope no 7-18 Cinderella wins their conference tourney.

Win today and major scoreboard watching tonight.

Also remember this, other teams will be playing worse teams. Example) Minnesota, who is ahead of us, is playing Penn State. SJU and Minn both win, SJU could easily jump Minn because of the strength of the victory.

Quote from: tnice on March 13, 2014, 10:07:49 AM

Per Lunardi, I think this is a better explanation of the bubble ( this was posted before yesterdays game, so it doesn't include G'town and anybody else who got upset)

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas

OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

This is why I don't think just beating PC gets us there. If you assume Lunardi is the best at this, and is accurate, we need help to get in and beating PC doesn't knock out somebody ahead of us. So in addition to winning, we need a couple of the teams ahead of us to crap the bed AND we have to hope no 7-18 Cinderella wins their conference tourney.

Win today and major scoreboard watching tonight.

Also remember this, other teams will be playing worse teams. Example) Minnesota, who is ahead of us, is playing Penn State. SJU and Minn both win, SJU could easily jump Minn because of the strength of the victory.

Or they may keep Minny ahead of us because we lost to Penn St.

Quote from: Mparty7441 on March 13, 2014, 10:10:01 AM

Quote from: tnice on March 13, 2014, 10:07:49 AM

Per Lunardi, I think this is a better explanation of the bubble ( this was posted before yesterdays game, so it doesn't include G'town and anybody else who got upset)

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas

OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

This is why I don't think just beating PC gets us there. If you assume Lunardi is the best at this, and is accurate, we need help to get in and beating PC doesn't knock out somebody ahead of us. So in addition to winning, we need a couple of the teams ahead of us to crap the bed AND we have to hope no 7-18 Cinderella wins their conference tourney.

Win today and major scoreboard watching tonight.

Also remember this, other teams will be playing worse teams. Example) Minnesota, who is ahead of us, is playing Penn State. SJU and Minn both win, SJU could easily jump Minn because of the strength of the victory.

Or they may keep Minny ahead of us because we lost to Penn St.

Perhaps, but the S-Curve is all about numbers. It's not like that one game will stick out on a S-Curve. Also, Arkansas is playing a bad South Carolina team today, that win won't do anything for them. California is playing Colorado, a team they beat by 1, in OT,  at home four days ago. Colorado is clearly the better team there.

Quote from: tnice on March 13, 2014, 10:22:52 AM

Quote from: Mparty7441 on March 13, 2014, 10:10:01 AM

Quote from: tnice on March 13, 2014, 10:07:49 AM

Per Lunardi, I think this is a better explanation of the bubble ( this was posted before yesterdays game, so it doesn't include G'town and anybody else who got upset)

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas

OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

This is why I don't think just beating PC gets us there. If you assume Lunardi is the best at this, and is accurate, we need help to get in and beating PC doesn't knock out somebody ahead of us. So in addition to winning, we need a couple of the teams ahead of us to crap the bed AND we have to hope no 7-18 Cinderella wins their conference tourney.

Win today and major scoreboard watching tonight.

Also remember this, other teams will be playing worse teams. Example) Minnesota, who is ahead of us, is playing Penn State. SJU and Minn both win, SJU could easily jump Minn because of the strength of the victory.

Or they may keep Minny ahead of us because we lost to Penn St.

Perhaps, but the S-Curve is all about numbers. It's not like that one game will stick out on a S-Curve.

Hey, we just dropped 3 spots because Georgetown lost, I'm not taking anything for granted. LOL

Quote from: Mparty7441 on March 13, 2014, 10:25:16 AM

Quote from: tnice on March 13, 2014, 10:22:52 AM

Quote from: Mparty7441 on March 13, 2014, 10:10:01 AM

Quote from: tnice on March 13, 2014, 10:07:49 AM

Per Lunardi, I think this is a better explanation of the bubble ( this was posted before yesterdays game, so it doesn't include G'town and anybody else who got upset)

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas

OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

This is why I don't think just beating PC gets us there. If you assume Lunardi is the best at this, and is accurate, we need help to get in and beating PC doesn't knock out somebody ahead of us. So in addition to winning, we need a couple of the teams ahead of us to crap the bed AND we have to hope no 7-18 Cinderella wins their conference tourney.

Win today and major scoreboard watching tonight.

Also remember this, other teams will be playing worse teams. Example) Minnesota, who is ahead of us, is playing Penn State. SJU and Minn both win, SJU could easily jump Minn because of the strength of the victory.

Or they may keep Minny ahead of us because we lost to Penn St.

Perhaps, but the S-Curve is all about numbers. It's not like that one game will stick out on a S-Curve.

Hey, we just dropped 3 spots because Georgetown lost, I'm not taking anything for granted. LOL

True that. Although I think there might just be an error on the espn.com bracket. It doesn't make sense how it could change so much in one day when none of those teams even played.

It was a mistake, still first 4 out

Kieran Darcy ‏@KieranDarcy 
Bracketology malfunction -- @ESPNLunardi still believes St. John's-Providence a play-in game #SJUBB: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10588865/latest-update-joe-lunardi-bracket-math-college-basketball … via @espncbb

Or they may keep Minny ahead of us because we lost to Penn St.

will be tough for any of the true bubble teams to leap frog Minny if they win, their strength of schedule is HUGE positive for them, its Top 10.

Last Four Byes

Southern Methodist
Xavier
Saint Joseph's
Tennessee

Last Four In
Nebraska
Dayton
Brigham Young
Providence

First Four Out
Minnesota
Southern Miss
Florida State
Arkansas

Next Four Out
California
Missouri
St. John's
Green Bay

In no way am I saying that we are going to hear our name on Sunday, but I can't help but look at Lunardi's latest projections and wonder why it is perceived to be a no-brainer that we are NIT bound.

Tennessee - will finish 21-12 (barring upset of #1 Florida tomorrow), beat Xavier and Virginia (In Decemeber when they were unranked)
Nebraska - finished 19-12, beat ranked Ohio St, Michigan State and Wisconsin yesterday (which probably put them in)
Dayton - finished 23-11, beat ranked Gonzaga and St. Louis (lost to St. Joe's today in probably the A-10 version of PC-SJU game)
BYU - finished 23-11,  beat ranked Gonzaga, but lost to them twice (including WCC final). Beat Texas (In November when they were unranked)
PC - we know their story, but what if they lose to the Hall?
Minnesota - will finish 20-13, beat ranked Ohio St, Wisconsin, Iowa. But also piled up 3 wins vs. Penn State (I know, I know they beat us)
Southern Miss - can win C-USA and keep an at-large bid in play
Florida State - finished 19-13, beat ranked VCU and UMASS (in November and December)
Arkansas - finished 21-11, beat ranked Kentucky twice, lost to South Carolina (14-20) in SEC tourney
California - finished 19-13, beat ranked Oregon and Arizona (#1 at time)
Missouri - finished 22-11, beat ranked UCLA (in December)

Maybe I'm biased. Maybe I can't believe we actually lost yesterday. But forgetting RPI, BPI, SOS and every other stupid index, I just think we are still in the conversation with some of these teams if you use the eye test. Unfortunately, the loss to PC (as well as Penn State, Depaul, PC first time) will end up being our demise. But maybe Lavin isnt as batshit crazy as we all think when he said prior to the BET that maybe we are already in??

Let me dream, I don't want to watch the NIT....

Last Four Byes

Southern Methodist
Xavier
Saint Joseph's
Tennessee

Last Four In
Nebraska
Dayton
Brigham Young
Providence

First Four Out
Minnesota
Southern Miss
Florida State
Arkansas

Next Four Out
California
Missouri
St. John's
Green Bay

In no way am I saying that we are going to hear our name on Sunday, but I can't help but look at Lunardi's latest projections and wonder why it is perceived to be a no-brainer that we are NIT bound.

Tennessee - will finish 21-12 (barring upset of #1 Florida tomorrow), beat Xavier and Virginia (In Decemeber when they were unranked)
Nebraska - finished 19-12, beat ranked Ohio St, Michigan State and Wisconsin yesterday (which probably put them in)
Dayton - finished 23-11, beat ranked Gonzaga and St. Louis (lost to St. Joe's today in probably the A-10 version of PC-SJU game)
BYU - finished 23-11,  beat ranked Gonzaga, but lost to them twice (including WCC final). Beat Texas (In November when they were unranked)
PC - we know their story, but what if they lose to the Hall?
Minnesota - will finish 20-13, beat ranked Ohio St, Wisconsin, Iowa. But also piled up 3 wins vs. Penn State (I know, I know they beat us)
Southern Miss - can win C-USA and keep an at-large bid in play
Florida State - finished 19-13, beat ranked VCU and UMASS (in November and December)
Arkansas - finished 21-11, beat ranked Kentucky twice, lost to South Carolina (14-20) in SEC tourney
California - finished 19-13, beat ranked Oregon and Arizona (#1 at time)
Missouri - finished 22-11, beat ranked UCLA (in December)

Maybe I'm biased. Maybe I can't believe we actually lost yesterday. But forgetting RPI, BPI, SOS and every other stupid index, I just think we are still in the conversation with some of these teams if you use the eye test. Unfortunately, the loss to PC (as well as Penn State, Depaul, PC first time) will end up being our demise. But maybe Lavin isnt as batshit crazy as we all think when he said prior to the BET that maybe we are already in??

Let me dream, I don't want to watch the NIT....

You shouldn't be this drunk at this time of night. Its still early

Drunk on the Lavin Kool-Aid

Against our main bubble team competition we are 1-4...beating 1 rank team...Maybe the there  can be a thunderbird flu epidemic and the 8 or so teams ahead of us have to forfeit and we can get in that way.

Last Four Byes

Southern Methodist
Xavier
Saint Joseph's
Tennessee

Last Four In
Nebraska
Dayton
Brigham Young
Providence

First Four Out
Minnesota
Southern Miss
Florida State
Arkansas

Next Four Out
California
Missouri
St. John's
Green Bay

In no way am I saying that we are going to hear our name on Sunday, but I can't help but look at Lunardi's latest projections and wonder why it is perceived to be a no-brainer that we are NIT bound.

Tennessee - will finish 21-12 (barring upset of #1 Florida tomorrow), beat Xavier and Virginia (In Decemeber when they were unranked)
Nebraska - finished 19-12, beat ranked Ohio St, Michigan State and Wisconsin yesterday (which probably put them in)
Dayton - finished 23-11, beat ranked Gonzaga and St. Louis (lost to St. Joe's today in probably the A-10 version of PC-SJU game)
BYU - finished 23-11,  beat ranked Gonzaga, but lost to them twice (including WCC final). Beat Texas (In November when they were unranked)
PC - we know their story, but what if they lose to the Hall?
Minnesota - will finish 20-13, beat ranked Ohio St, Wisconsin, Iowa. But also piled up 3 wins vs. Penn State (I know, I know they beat us)
Southern Miss - can win C-USA and keep an at-large bid in play
Florida State - finished 19-13, beat ranked VCU and UMASS (in November and December)
Arkansas - finished 21-11, beat ranked Kentucky twice, lost to South Carolina (14-20) in SEC tourney
California - finished 19-13, beat ranked Oregon and Arizona (#1 at time)
Missouri - finished 22-11, beat ranked UCLA (in December)

Maybe I'm biased. Maybe I can't believe we actually lost yesterday. But forgetting RPI, BPI, SOS and every other stupid index, I just think we are still in the conversation with some of these teams if you use the eye test. Unfortunately, the loss to PC (as well as Penn State, Depaul, PC first time) will end up being our demise. But maybe Lavin isnt as batshit crazy as we all think when he said prior to the BET that maybe we are already in??

Let me dream, I don't want to watch the NIT....

Dream all you want. Just don't go crazy when we aren't picked for the NCAA.

Quote from: JungleFever on March 14, 2014, 07:55:51 PM

Last Four Byes

Southern Methodist
Xavier
Saint Joseph's
Tennessee

Last Four In
Nebraska
Dayton
Brigham Young
Providence

First Four Out
Minnesota
Southern Miss
Florida State
Arkansas

Next Four Out
California
Missouri
St. John's
Green Bay

In no way am I saying that we are going to hear our name on Sunday, but I can't help but look at Lunardi's latest projections and wonder why it is perceived to be a no-brainer that we are NIT bound.

Tennessee - will finish 21-12 (barring upset of #1 Florida tomorrow), beat Xavier and Virginia (In Decemeber when they were unranked)
Nebraska - finished 19-12, beat ranked Ohio St, Michigan State and Wisconsin yesterday (which probably put them in)
Dayton - finished 23-11, beat ranked Gonzaga and St. Louis (lost to St. Joe's today in probably the A-10 version of PC-SJU game)
BYU - finished 23-11,  beat ranked Gonzaga, but lost to them twice (including WCC final). Beat Texas (In November when they were unranked)
PC - we know their story, but what if they lose to the Hall?
Minnesota - will finish 20-13, beat ranked Ohio St, Wisconsin, Iowa. But also piled up 3 wins vs. Penn State (I know, I know they beat us)
Southern Miss - can win C-USA and keep an at-large bid in play
Florida State - finished 19-13, beat ranked VCU and UMASS (in November and December)
Arkansas - finished 21-11, beat ranked Kentucky twice, lost to South Carolina (14-20) in SEC tourney
California - finished 19-13, beat ranked Oregon and Arizona (#1 at time)
Missouri - finished 22-11, beat ranked UCLA (in December)

Maybe I'm biased. Maybe I can't believe we actually lost yesterday. But forgetting RPI, BPI, SOS and every other stupid index, I just think we are still in the conversation with some of these teams if you use the eye test. Unfortunately, the loss to PC (as well as Penn State, Depaul, PC first time) will end up being our demise. But maybe Lavin isnt as batshit crazy as we all think when he said prior to the BET that maybe we are already in??

Let me dream, I don't want to watch the NIT....

Dream all you want. Just don't go crazy when we aren't picked for the NCAA.

I know we are not getting selected and I prefaced my message with that. My only point was to prove how soft the bubble is and how it really came down to 1 or 2 games for us. Because if you go by recent play, I'd put us up there or ahead of all these teams on Lunardi's bubble lines

If PC wins and ends top 50, that gives us a 2nd top 50 win (and 2 more top 50 losses), right?

Any chance we are the random team that sneaks in that everyone is shocked about and doesn't think we deserve it?

Does committee really take into account deaths births ETC like Lavin said?

One last question.  Is this what it is like to be a mets fan?  Comin up w unreasonable scenarios to even maintain the slightest bit of hope?

If PC wins and ends top 50, that gives us a 2nd top 50 win (and 2 more top 50 losses), right?

Any chance we are the random team that sneaks in that everyone is shocked about and doesn't think we deserve it?

Does committee really take into account deaths births ETC like Lavin said?

One last question.  Is this what it is like to be a mets fan?  Comin up w unreasonable scenarios to even maintain the slightest bit of hope?

We aren't getting into the tournament, unfortunately. We are the last team in Lunardi's "Next four out." We're done. Mabe a 1 seed in the NIT, so there's that.

I had a friend who passed away about 2 years ago.  He was a life-long Red Sox fan.  His love for the Sox never waned in spite of all the years without a championship.  He got to see them win two before he died.  There is hope for SJU fans.

I had a friend who passed away about 2 years ago.  He was a life-long Red Sox fan.  His love for the Sox never waned in spite of all the years without a championship.  He got to see them win two before he died.  There is hope for SJU fans.

Glad to hear that about your friend.  Red Sox have brought a lot of joy to long suffering fans over the last decade.

1985 will come again, I guess...