First Three BE Games

In the Pomeroy ratings Xavier is 39, Georgetown is 28 and Nova is 8.  SJU is 56.

1-2 is not so bad as long as the Johnnies go on a nice run and win the next three conference games.

Do we have better players then Xavier?

I also agree, no more excuses. Too much talk by the coach about the team being a work in process. If we are going to make the post season, nows the time to start. If we have the players, nows the time to show it.

Do we have better players then Xavier?

Don't make it sound like Xavier is NJIT or Dartmouth.  SJU has better players then they do as well.  Does UNC have better players then UAB?  Does Duke have better players then Vermont?

Let me ask you something, who do you think is favored on Tuesday??? 

Xavier's players are good enough to be ranked 39 by Pomeroy.  They must be pretty good players and they are home.

These next three games don't make or break the season.

There are 17 games to play after the Nova game.

I am praying for 3-0.  Realistically we should win at least 1.  If we want to be considered a contender for the big dance there is no way we should be 0-3.  In my pre season picks i have this 3 game span as 0-3. 

Quote from: TONYD3 on December 29, 2013, 06:45:43 PM

Do we have better players then Xavier?

Don't make it sound like Xavier is NJIT or Dartmouth.  SJU has better players then they do as well.  Does UNC have better players then UAB?  Does Duke have better players then Vermont?

Let me ask you something, who do you think is favored on Tuesday??? 

Agree with Fordham.  IMO, we are probably a little better overall than their roster is, and certainly have more depth.  They are awesome at home though, and are balanced.  They have Christon a top notch PG, Myles Davis a fantastic shooter, big center and some very good forwards.  It will be a war.  They will and should be favored.   We can still win though. 

They are a better statistical rebounding team, but other than that, we are pretty evenly matched.  They shoot the three very well.  Their biggest scorers are Semaj christon and their big center.  Those matchups are actually ok for us.  We can use methods to deny the post a bit as well as deny penetration by a big guard like Christon.    The one stat I do lie is that they are last in the big East in FT percentage.  May be important in a close game.

The fact of the matter is we need to be no less than 2-1  in first 3 games.  And one of those wins has to come against nova.  This league is going to end up the 6th or 7th best conference in America and the opportunity to get top notch wins is scarce.   

I look at the BE season based on home vs away. Let's assume worst case we go 7-2 at home (anything worse then we don't deserve NCAAs), we'd have to find 5 road wins to be a very respectable 12-6. We will be favored over Depaul SHU and probably Providence on the road. If we don't take one of these first two games I'd have a hard time believing that we could win 5 road games this year

I believe it is crucial for SJU to have a decent start in League play. The initial three games are certainly challenging, with Xavier & GT on the road, followed by Nova at MSG. From my perspective, it would be great to sweep those games, but obviously improbable.  My sense, based on our play to date, is that winning one game is acceptable, grabbing two is great, but losing all three (certainly possible) would be a huge hole to dig out of.

My opinion is we win one of these initial games, which we can recover from, since this may be one of the most difficult stretches on the schedule.  I am particularly interested to see if we can become a good road team. Thoughts?

Winning on the road involves the ability to hang around. Our guys have never had much of a home court advantage. I get the feeling they will enjoy feeding off a rapid crowd. If they can keep from fouling, I think they can win 4, maybe 5. Thats what it gonna take, so I'm hoping.

The fact of the matter is we need to be no less than 2-1  in first 3 games.  And one of those wins has to come against nova.  This league is going to end up the 6th or 7th best conference in America and the opportunity to get top notch wins is scarce.   

3rd best conference at this point with five teams in top 42 RPI.  How likely is that the league drops three or four slots?

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Xavier doesn't win 6 games in old big east. They would be seeded 10th or lower. If we are good we have to win. No more excuses.

Xavier has already beaten four teams from major conferences and lost another to top 25 Iowa in OT after blowing a 13 point lead in the last two minutes.  I find it hard to believe they could be so close to five wins in just seven games, but fail to win six in the old Big East with SJ, Rutgers, DePaul, USF, and Providence.  They an old Big East team, Cincy, by double-digits this year. 

I expect us to start 2-1.  I wouldn't head to a ledge if we were 1-2, but I'd really like to see us 2-1.  Nova is a big game for us because it is the biggest potential win left on our schedule. 

Quote from: rdstr25 on December 29, 2013, 08:38:48 PM

The fact of the matter is we need to be no less than 2-1  in first 3 games.  And one of those wins has to come against nova.  This league is going to end up the 6th or 7th best conference in America and the opportunity to get top notch wins is scarce.   

3rd best conference at this point with five teams in top 42 RPI.  How likely is that the league drops three or four slots?

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Almost impossible at this point.  Most teams are done with the OOC part of their schedules and the ones that aren't only have a game left.  The Ameican Athletic Conference is screwed.  They don't have a single team ranked higher than 32 RPI and only five teams are in the top 140 RPI.  Three teams are 227 and lower (Rutgers, USF, Houston).  It is shaping up to be a three bid conference.

is their pg as good as branch? (everyone's favorite whipping boy.) I think not. My expectaions are high. We have the best player in the conference. Wouldn't trade him for anyone. I expect to win. Why is that crazy? Why do you guys think we lose? why is ok  to lose? We have a nationally ranked players. We are deep. How many of their players would crack our rotation ?
Good teams win this game. NCAA teams win this game.

is their pg as good as branch? (everyone's favorite whipping boy.) I think not. My expectaions are high. We have the best player in the conference. Wouldn't trade him for anyone. I expect to win. Why is that crazy? Why do you guys think we lose? why is ok  to lose? We have a nationally ranked players. We are deep. How many of their players would crack our rotation ?
Good teams win this game. NCAA teams win this game.

Like I said before, 5 NCAA teams lost at Xavier last year and this year's Xavier team is much better than last years. It's a very tough place to play. Losing on the road to Xavier would not be the end of the world.

is their pg as good as branch? (everyone's favorite whipping boy.) I think not. My expectaions are high. We have the best player in the conference. Wouldn't trade him for anyone. I expect to win. Why is that crazy? Why do you guys think we lose? why is ok  to lose? We have a nationally ranked players. We are deep. How many of their players would crack our rotation ?
Good teams win this game. NCAA teams win this game.

Doug McDermott doesn't play for us

It's gonna be a freakin snake pit in there.

lost another to top 25 Iowa in OT after blowing a 13 point lead in the last two minutes.

Shirley you did not mean to say that they blew a 13 point lead in 2 minutes. That would have been in all the papers. I see by the play by play that they led by 13 with 12 minutes left. They led by 3 with 2 minutes left.

Xavier is 4-3 against major conference teams: they've beaten Tennessee, Wake, Alabama, and Cincinnati and lost to USC, Tennessee [sic] and Iowa. Except for Alabama none of those teams is awful and even including Alabama none are the sort of marsh-mellows we've played. Of the 4 teams from major conferences we've played, we've lost three. Columbia is arguably the best team we've beaten.

We have not played a road game or left NY since March 2012. We're 1-6 in our last 7 on the road. This is a noon game in a different time zone in front of 10 K hostile fans versus a team that shoots a collective 40 percent from three. And our coach is not going to outsmart their coach: Mack has won 75 games in three years and been to the Sweet 16 twice. Other than Creighton this is about the least likely game SJ's win on the road all year.

 

Our approach to the non-conference slate was clearly to have the schedule dominated by a bunch of teams in the 90-200 range.  Not sure what the definition of "cupcake" is, but we have only played 3 teams outside of the top 200 per KenPom.  The downside is the limited chances for a signature win (which unfortunately didn't happen), but the upside is a strong non-conference SOS on average and a solid RPI if we take care of business (which we did).  Now we need to go 10-8 in the beast, at a minimum.  It's a not perfect strategy, but it is definitely manageable given where we are at as a program.

We didn't beat teams in the 40-70 range because we didn't play them.  If X played Cuse and Wisconsin, they'd lose.  If we played Tenn x2, WF, Alabama, Cincy, and USC, I am confident that we'd at worst be 3-3 in those games.  We will prove our worth in the next 2-3 months and are in position to make the tournament if we execute.  I like where we are.

Quote from: Marillac on December 29, 2013, 09:56:54 PM

lost another to top 25 Iowa in OT after blowing a 13 point lead in the last two minutes.

Shirley you did not mean to say that they blew a 13 point lead in 2 minutes. That would have been in all the papers. I see by the play by play that they led by 13 with 12 minutes left. They led by 3 with 2 minutes left.

Xavier is 4-3 against major conference teams: they've beaten Tennessee, Wake, Alabama, and Cincinnati and lost to USC, Tennessee [sic] and Iowa. Except for Alabama none of those teams is awful and even including Alabama none are the sort of marsh-mellows we've played. Of the 4 teams from major conferences we've played, we've lost three. Columbia is arguably the best team we've beaten.

We have not played a road game or left NY since March 2012. We're 1-6 in our last 7 on the road. This is a noon game in a different time zone in front of 10 K hostile fans versus a team that shoots a collective 40 percent from three. And our coach is not going to outsmart their coach: Mack has won 75 games in three years and been to the Sweet 16 twice. Other than Creighton this is about the least likely game SJ's win on the road all year.

 

I agree that this game will be tough for us, but it is definitely winnable.  Yes, X shoots 38% from deep, but they do not shoot many 3s (311th in country).  In fact, the guys who dominate the ball (Semaj and Stainbrook), hardly ever shoot 3s.  Semaj in particular looks to penetrate first and only shoots wide open treys. 

A weird stat that jumps out at me is that opponents are only shooting 60% from FT against them (2nd best in the country).  Is that the home court advantage or just luck? 

Stainbrook can rebound but his vertical might not be better than Joshua Smith's.  We can take advantage of their lack of rim protectors.  Take it to the rack, hit the glass, and let Semaj bomb threes off the dribble and we are in good shape IMO