Is St. John's Talented?

Interesting article from kenpom.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/on_st._johns_and_its_talent

Last line of the article is spot on,

"St. John’s probably has the best shot at sending multiple players from its roster to the NBA, and in terms of recruiting rankings it has the most recognizable names. Its players may be able to win some sort of Big East vertical leaping contest. But in terms of the kind of skills it takes to consistently win college basketball games against quality opponents, we’ve seen a lot from the Red Storm over the past season and a half, and they don’t appear to be well-stocked in the kind of talent it takes to do that."

This quote says it all

"The association of St. John’s with talent is interesting because St. John’s is not particularly good at playing basketball, at least when you judge them on whether they could make the NCAA tournament, let alone win a game or two once there."

Can't disagree w his comment about making shots being a talent. Very important ,but not our strong suite.

This group doesn't know how to win.

Pointer made a miracle play to win the NIT game last year. Syracuse was winnable, Penn State was winnable. This group of players just don't know how to close out a game.

This group doesn't know how to win.

Pointer made a miracle play to win the NIT game last year. Syracuse was winnable, Penn State was winnable. This group of players just don't know how to close out a game.

I may get harrassed for saying this, but it is still early as far as that goes. Penn state included a couple of bonehead plays, and you can't really get on them for not beating syracuse. I think they could certainly learn how to close out games, I just think we don't know yet. I do agree though, that they do not seem to have the skills it takes to consistently win big games.

I do wanna disagree with one point in that article though, where he says that with Cal or Coach K the team wouldn't be contending for a big east title...I don't think Lavin is a terrible coach or anything, but if we had the same players and you traded Lavs for one of the best coaches if not the best in the game (Coach K) I think we would definitely be right up there as far as best team in the league.

I'm a big believer in numbers and in facts but there are things that just go deeper that you can see when you actually consistently watch a team that guys like KenPom don't see.  The lack of roles, identity, solid and known lineups that help build rhythm and not having our best PG be our primary ballhandler have all lead or contributed to our low percentage offense. 

I do wanna disagree with one point in that article though, where he says that with Cal or Coach K the team wouldn't be contending for a big east title...I don't think Lavin is a terrible coach or anything, but if we had the same players and you traded Lavs for one of the best coaches if not the best in the game (Coach K) I think we would definitely be right up there as far as best team in the league.

An x's and o's guru wouldn't want anything to do with this group.  How do you space the floor when defenders can play 5-10 feet off Dom WHEN he has the ball? How do you overcome the fact that nobody has to even be respected in the low post or not having to worry about half the guys on the court when they roll after setting a pick.

I don't think anyone could be doing too much better with this group at this point outside of Pitino or Smart who would have the pressing like madmen.

I'm a big believer in numbers and in facts but there are things that just go deeper that you can see when you actually consistently watch a team that guys like KenPom don't see.  The lack of roles, identity, solid and known lineups that help build rhythm and not having our best PG be our primary ballhandler have all lead or contributed to our low percentage offense. 

Knowing proper roles is what is killing this team now.  Jordan and Branch need 40 minutes combined at the point.  Greene needs to play exclusively off the ball and take more set shots (39.3% from three).  All four guards needs to be a threat to dribble-drive at all times they have a step off good ball movement, and our damn forwards need to stop thinking about driving, shooting, and living on the perimeter. Clean the glass and set picks.

There is no reason we can't attack the rim all day with our guards off good ball movement and be in the bonus by the 12 minute tv time out every game.

Quote from: survivedc on January 09, 2014, 10:37:59 PM

I do wanna disagree with one point in that article though, where he says that with Cal or Coach K the team wouldn't be contending for a big east title...I don't think Lavin is a terrible coach or anything, but if we had the same players and you traded Lavs for one of the best coaches if not the best in the game (Coach K) I think we would definitely be right up there as far as best team in the league.

An x's and o's guru wouldn't want anything to do with this group.  How do you space the floor when defenders can play 5-10 feet off Dom WHEN he has the ball? How do you overcome the fact that nobody has to even be respected in the low post or not having to worry about half the guys on the court when they roll after setting a pick.

I don't think anyone could be doing too much better with this group at this point outside of Pitino or Smart who would have the pressing like madmen.

I cant agree with that, That disrespectful to coach K.

You yourself has complained about lack of discipline and roles for players.

Quote from: survivedc on January 09, 2014, 10:37:59 PM

I do wanna disagree with one point in that article though, where he says that with Cal or Coach K the team wouldn't be contending for a big east title...I don't think Lavin is a terrible coach or anything, but if we had the same players and you traded Lavs for one of the best coaches if not the best in the game (Coach K) I think we would definitely be right up there as far as best team in the league.

An x's and o's guru wouldn't want anything to do with this group.  How do you space the floor when defenders can play 5-10 feet off Dom WHEN he has the ball? How do you overcome the fact that nobody has to even be respected in the low post or not having to worry about half the guys on the court when they roll after setting a pick.

I don't think anyone could be doing too much better with this group at this point outside of Pitino or Smart who would have the pressing like madmen.

I totally disagree that it would take Pitino or Smart to play consistent lineups, find an identity and play to it.  Lavin/Whitesell are fully capable, but they just have to get out of their own way and get out of their team's way.

Quote from: TRabinowitz on January 10, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

I'm a big believer in numbers and in facts but there are things that just go deeper that you can see when you actually consistently watch a team that guys like KenPom don't see.  The lack of roles, identity, solid and known lineups that help build rhythm and not having our best PG be our primary ballhandler have all lead or contributed to our low percentage offense. 

Knowing proper roles is what is killing this team now.  Jordan and Branch need 40 minutes combined at the point.  Greene needs to play exclusively off the ball and take more set shots (39.3% from three).  All four guards needs to be a threat to dribble-drive at all times they have a step off good ball movement, and our damn forwards need to stop thinking about driving, shooting, and living on the perimeter. Clean the glass and set picks.

There is no reason we can't attack the rim all day with our guards off good ball movement and be in the bonus by the 12 minute tv time out every game.

I agree with your post that player roles need to improve, but I think we do have the personnel to run a more efficient offense.   
Do we have perfectly complimentary pieces? No.  As you mentioned we can't space the floor or use the low post in a traditional sense.    But we do have two Pfs that are adept at hitting the 12-15ft jumper.   We just don't run our pick and role/fade very well.   If we quickly moved the ball back to Sampson or Sanchez .. that's a shot they can hit.
But our picks and screens are horrendous, and our ball handlers don't know how to use them anyway.

Generally speaking, I know what you mean about the weaknesses of our personnel.   But if we had better ball movement we could still score effectively with this group.  Attack the rim, midrange jumpers, and better looks for Harrison/Greene/Hooper from 3.   

I don't think anyone could be doing too much better with this group at this point outside of Pitino or Smart who would have the pressing like madmen.

AMEN - its not rocket science that the team needs to use its athletic ability to press.

I hope tomorrow we come out with a different game plan and approach.

An x's and o's guru wouldn't want anything to do with this group.  How do you space the floor when defenders can play 5-10 feet off Dom WHEN he has the ball? How do you overcome the fact that nobody has to even be respected in the low post or not having to worry about half the guys on the court when they roll after setting a pick.

I don't think anyone could be doing too much better with this group at this point outside of Pitino or Smart who would have the pressing like madmen.

Kind of weird how you credit Lavin for being such a genyious that he was able to coach Norm's sad sack second tier loser recruits into the NCAA tournament and yet find now that neither he nor anyone else on the planet would be be able to coach his own elite top 75 recruits into mid pack in the downgraded down sized Big East.

Have to disagree that only two coaches in the universe could coach a team laden with top 75 talent into the middle of the Big East. Have to disagree that Lavin is doing such a great job that no one could improve on it. Have to disagree that a X and O coach like John Beilein would not want to coach this group or would not get more out of it than Lavin has managed to. In fact, I think you'd be hard pressed to find a coach who could get less out of this group than Lavin has managed to.   

Quote from: TRabinowitz on January 10, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

I'm a big believer in numbers and in facts but there are things that just go deeper that you can see when you actually consistently watch a team that guys like KenPom don't see.  The lack of roles, identity, solid and known lineups that help build rhythm and not having our best PG be our primary ballhandler have all lead or contributed to our low percentage offense. 

Knowing proper roles is what is killing this team now.  Jordan and Branch need 40 minutes combined at the point.  Greene needs to play exclusively off the ball and take more set shots (39.3% from three).  All four guards needs to be a threat to dribble-drive at all times they have a step off good ball movement, and our damn forwards need to stop thinking about driving, shooting, and living on the perimeter. Clean the glass and set picks.

There is no reason we can't attack the rim all day with our guards off good ball movement and be in the bonus by the 12 minute tv time out every game.

So knowing your role will turn you into a 40% 3 point shooter? Or make you a better passer or dribble penetrator? I disagree. Its not that simple. We don't attack the rim because of our personal, not lack of ball movement or our offense. We see Jordan attacking all the time, our ball movement doesn't effect him, the players have to execute. I have to agree with the article, I have been saying it for a long time, we have athletes, but every offense is based on the ability to either shoot, dribble, or pass the ball. We struggle in those areas as a team and its because of the players' ability, or lack there of.

Do you think this team could run a princeton offense? I don't. We can't even make a pass to the screener in a screen and role. 99% percent of the time the ball goes away from the screener when they role, its the most frustrating thing to watch. It's an option that is never taken and that decision is made by the player on the court. 

Do you think this team could run a princeton offense? I don't.

They could run the Princeton offense if Pete Carrill was coaching them. Pete Carrill would win a NC with them.

Your position seems to be that this team is bad because Lavin is a top notch coach and strategist but a lousy recruiter, which is the reason why he would end up with a team of players you describe as untalented, selfish, and dumb. That opinion would probably that would put you in the minority of posters, at least among those who are not legally blind.

Quote from: Marillac on January 10, 2014, 12:25:45 AM

Quote from: TRabinowitz on January 10, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

I'm a big believer in numbers and in facts but there are things that just go deeper that you can see when you actually consistently watch a team that guys like KenPom don't see.  The lack of roles, identity, solid and known lineups that help build rhythm and not having our best PG be our primary ballhandler have all lead or contributed to our low percentage offense. 

Knowing proper roles is what is killing this team now.  Jordan and Branch need 40 minutes combined at the point.  Greene needs to play exclusively off the ball and take more set shots (39.3% from three).  All four guards needs to be a threat to dribble-drive at all times they have a step off good ball movement, and our damn forwards need to stop thinking about driving, shooting, and living on the perimeter. Clean the glass and set picks.

There is no reason we can't attack the rim all day with our guards off good ball movement and be in the bonus by the 12 minute tv time out every game.

So knowing your role will turn you into a 40% 3 point shooter? Or make you a better passer or dribble penetrator? I disagree. Its not that simple. ...

Actually yes, knowing your role WILL make players better passers and will help players get to their kill spots on the floor where they're most comfortable putting the ball on the floor or putting up shots.  The player I can think of most who needs his role identified is Orlando Sanchez.  He was a high-post player in JUCO and was an absolutely killer passer, finding guys cutting to the rim along the baseline.  Now he plays out by the arc where he hoists midrange and three-point jumpers which are both extremely low percentage and inefficient offensive plays.  Players knowing roles will also help passing because guys will know where each other are on the floor. 

Quote from: SJUFAN on January 10, 2014, 12:18:10 PM

Quote from: Marillac on January 10, 2014, 12:25:45 AM

Quote from: TRabinowitz on January 10, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

I'm a big believer in numbers and in facts but there are things that just go deeper that you can see when you actually consistently watch a team that guys like KenPom don't see.  The lack of roles, identity, solid and known lineups that help build rhythm and not having our best PG be our primary ballhandler have all lead or contributed to our low percentage offense. 

Knowing proper roles is what is killing this team now.  Jordan and Branch need 40 minutes combined at the point.  Greene needs to play exclusively off the ball and take more set shots (39.3% from three).  All four guards needs to be a threat to dribble-drive at all times they have a step off good ball movement, and our damn forwards need to stop thinking about driving, shooting, and living on the perimeter. Clean the glass and set picks.

There is no reason we can't attack the rim all day with our guards off good ball movement and be in the bonus by the 12 minute tv time out every game.

So knowing your role will turn you into a 40% 3 point shooter? Or make you a better passer or dribble penetrator? I disagree. Its not that simple. ...

Actually yes, knowing your role WILL make players better passers and will help players get to their kill spots on the floor where they're most comfortable putting the ball on the floor or putting up shots.  The player I can think of most who needs his role identified is Orlando Sanchez.  He was a high-post player in JUCO and was an absolutely killer passer, finding guys cutting to the rim along the baseline.  Now he plays out by the arc where he hoists midrange and three-point jumpers which are both extremely low percentage and inefficient offensive plays.  Players knowing roles will also help passing because guys will know where each other are on the floor. 

It's an unfortunate situation, but I don't think him and Jakarr can be on the floor at the same time.   Because they both want to operate in that high post area.   But when Jakarr is on the floor with him, it pushes Sanchez out to the corner 3pt arc along the baseline. 
WHich is no good.

Quote from: TRabinowitz on January 10, 2014, 12:36:33 PM

Quote from: SJUFAN on January 10, 2014, 12:18:10 PM

Quote from: Marillac on January 10, 2014, 12:25:45 AM

Quote from: TRabinowitz on January 10, 2014, 12:21:30 AM

I'm a big believer in numbers and in facts but there are things that just go deeper that you can see when you actually consistently watch a team that guys like KenPom don't see.  The lack of roles, identity, solid and known lineups that help build rhythm and not having our best PG be our primary ballhandler have all lead or contributed to our low percentage offense. 

Knowing proper roles is what is killing this team now.  Jordan and Branch need 40 minutes combined at the point.  Greene needs to play exclusively off the ball and take more set shots (39.3% from three).  All four guards needs to be a threat to dribble-drive at all times they have a step off good ball movement, and our damn forwards need to stop thinking about driving, shooting, and living on the perimeter. Clean the glass and set picks.

There is no reason we can't attack the rim all day with our guards off good ball movement and be in the bonus by the 12 minute tv time out every game.

So knowing your role will turn you into a 40% 3 point shooter? Or make you a better passer or dribble penetrator? I disagree. Its not that simple. ...

Actually yes, knowing your role WILL make players better passers and will help players get to their kill spots on the floor where they're most comfortable putting the ball on the floor or putting up shots.  The player I can think of most who needs his role identified is Orlando Sanchez.  He was a high-post player in JUCO and was an absolutely killer passer, finding guys cutting to the rim along the baseline.  Now he plays out by the arc where he hoists midrange and three-point jumpers which are both extremely low percentage and inefficient offensive plays.  Players knowing roles will also help passing because guys will know where each other are on the floor. 

It's an unfortunate situation, but I don't think him and Jakarr can be on the floor at the same time.   Because they both want to operate in that high post area.   But when Jakarr is on the floor with him, it pushes Sanchez out to the corner 3pt arc along the baseline. 
WHich is no good.

That is an explanation BUT I would say then that:

a) Play Orlando when Jakarr isn't on the floor and put him at the high-post and

b) Jakarr also likes to spot up along the baseline and along the wing as well.

You are right though that for the most part you don't want both guys on the left and right blocks when they're on the court together because it does clog up driving lanes for our guards. That I do agree with.  But there are times when Jakarr isn't on the floor that Sanchez should be playing on the high post.

Quote from: SJUFAN on January 10, 2014, 12:18:10 PM

Do you think this team could run a princeton offense? I don't.

They could run the Princeton offense if Pete Carrill was coaching them. Pete Carrill would win a NC with them.

Your position seems to be that this team is bad because Lavin is a top notch coach and strategist but a lousy recruiter, which is the reason why he would end up with a team of players you describe as untalented, selfish, and dumb. That opinion would probably that would put you in the minority of posters, at least among those who are not legally blind.

It's quite the opposite. Just because I questioned the talent level on the team doesn't mean I believe Lavin isn't a good recruiter or I believe he is a tremendous coach. He is a top notch recruiter who was off the recruiting trail for 7 years, came in and brought in the best players with the highest ceilings he could. As he is able to build relationships he will bring in better talent. Could a better coach get more out of them than Lavin? Absolutely. But would a better coach be able to bring in the talent? Maybe if your at Duke, Kansas, UCLA, etc. etc. But at SJU? I don't know that. Case in point.....Jarvis is a really good coach, did well with another coaches players, horrible recruiter, we saw how that story ended. 

I never held the position that Lavin is a great coach, my position has always been that the players are not as good as the pundits make them out to be. But I believe they will get better, Sampson will get better. Lavin will bring in better players and we will be successful not because Lavin in a great coach, but a great recruiter. The team is improving, slowly, but we are. 5-6 years ago we were losing consistanly to Mid major teams. Now we lose to quality teams, and beat those same teams we would have lost to 5 years ago. Its a process that I am more than patient to watch unfold.