Bubble Watch

Creighton AD is on committee and so is Northeastern's.....

How come we were an 8 yesterday and a 9 today. We also had our arrow going down. This was from Lunardi's bracket on espn

How come we were an 8 yesterday and a 9 today. We also had our arrow going down. This was from Lunardi's bracket on espn

Dayton and Ole Miss won last night, which in Lunardi's mind put them ahead of us. 

The arrows just mean the direction the team went from his previous bracket, not necessarily the way the team is trending. 

Why is Indiana firmly in?

5-7 vs top 50, only "bad" loss is @Northwestern (110).  I felt they were essentially locked once they beat Rutgers.  I stated as such, and the are trying to make me look stupid by losing out.  With a loss to MSU they would still have 5 top 50 wins - more than most other bubble teams, with only one somewhat bad loss -fewer than most other bubble teams.  Worst possible record is 19-13.  This might depend on who their first round opponent is in the conference tourney.  I just don't see them missing out.

3/4/15 - results, reaction, and the meaning of life

Tennessee @ LSU (21-8) -  Tennessee 78  LSU 63   They're still 11-6 against the top 100, 4-4 top 50.  I may have undervalued their profile.  Computer numbers aren't great.

Miami (18-11) @ Pitt (19-11) -  Miami 67 Pitt 63   Having more bad losses than top 50 wins isn't a good thing.  Pitt could theoretically make it if they end up playing and beating duke, virginia, and UNC in the ACC tourney.  In other words, they're out.  Miami still needs to make a run in the ACC tournament.  2-6 top 50, 7-7 top 100, 4 bad losses.  I know I said this was a play out game, but I don't see either team making it.

Purdue (19-10) @ Michigan State (19-10) -  Michigan State 72 Purdue 66   This should lock MSU in, but I'll still complain about the seed they're going to get but haven't earned   I think Purdue is still in pretty good shape, but this will leave them bubbly barring a late Big Ten tourney run.

TCU @ Oklahoma St. (17-11)  -  OK State 82 TCU 70  Ok State is just playing for seeding when they take on West Virginia in the finale.

Cincinnati (20-9) @ Tulsa (21-7) -   Cinci 56 Tulsa 47   Cinci is 6-4 vs top 50 with one somewhat bad loss and two horrible losses.  Their profile is bubbly, but still stronger than most of the other bubble teams.  I think they're in.  Tulsa needs to beat SMU and then take it a game at a time in the AAC tourney.

USC @ UCLA (18-12) -  UCLA 85 USC 74  Bad loss avoided.  Still need to do something in conference tourney.

Colorado State (24-5) @ Nevada -  Colorado St 78 Nevada 62  "Even with a win that top 30 RPI will drop."  Foiled again, RPI held steady.  Next speed bump is @Utah State (135).  Bubbly profile, but the RPI is strong, will have 25+ wins...I think they're in.

Nebraska @ Illinois (18-11) -  Illinois 69 Nebraska 57  Part one complete.  Now they need to beat Purdue.  I may have lied about winning this and the Purdue game locking them in, they'll still just be 6-10 vs the top 100.  Might have to see how things shake out.

Boise State (22-7) @ San Jose State - Boise State 68 San Jose State 51    Avoided the bad loss.  Would be wise to beat Fresno St in the finale.

San Diego State (22-7) @ UNLV -  San Diego State 60 UNLV 58   I'm still afraid to lock them in, even though they might survive a loss to Nevada in the finale.  It's just that, Nevada is REALLY bad.  But they should be fine.

Oregon (22-8) @ Oregon State -  Oregon 65 Oregon State 62   Oregon is playing for seeding in the PAC-12 tourney.

*Teams I project as in are in bold.  Teams who are in but can fall out are also underlined.  Teams who are out but can creep in are italicized.

3/5/15 - games and results (sorry, forgot to post them earlier)

Temple (21-9) @ East Carolina -   Temple 70 East Carolina 56    Avoided the second land mine.  Will remain on the bubble for now.

Marshall @ Old Dominion (22-6) - ODU 67 Marshal 50  Such a weird profile....5-2 vs the top 100 including a win over VCU.  But four bad losses.  This bubble may come down to personal taste...

VCU @ Davidson (21-6) -  Davidson 82 VCU 55   I still wouldn't quite lock them in as they have a potential really bad loss in the finale, but I don't see them missing out at this point.

Memphis @ UConn (17-11) - Memphis 54 UConn 53   Still not the worst profile in the world with only one bad loss and 4-7 vs top 50...but 5-11 vs top 100 and the top 150 (weird, no games vs 101-150)

Stanford (18-10) @ Arizona State - Arizona State 67 Stanford 62

*Teams I project as in are in bold.  Teams who are in but can fall out are also underlined.  Teams who are out but can creep in are italicized.

Davidson spanking VCU.

UConn tied with Memphis, both at half

LoganK > Lunardi.

It feels good to not have to worry about the bubble with a game left.  It feels almost as good to actually expect to do some damage in the B.E.T..

UConn loses, they need to win their tourny.

I would think Davidson is a lock now

UConn loses, they need to win their tourny.

I would think Davidson is a lock now

Awesome to see them lose.  I agree, they will likely have to win their conference tournament, but that is not a tall task with that garbage league.

is VCU such a lock anymore? lets say they loose there first game of there tourney..

VCU is ranked in top 20 of rpi.  They're a lock.

VCU is ranked in top 20 of rpi.  They're a lock.

there situation is unique , do you think the fact they are 4-6 over there past 10 and lost arguably there mvp should be taken into account? there obviously a different team then there record or rpi indicates

Quote from: jumpinjohnny on March 05, 2015, 11:38:21 PM

VCU is ranked in top 20 of rpi.  They're a lock.

there situation is unique , do you think the fact they are 4-6 over there past 10 and lost arguably there mvp should be taken into account? there obviously a different team then there record or rpi indicates

I don't think the loss of a player should be taken into account, but ncaa does. They did it to us. If they are a different team without a certain player, then I get it. It makes sense. It's unfair, but this the NCAA. You know, the gestapo.

Best thing to do if possible is announce an injury after the seeding is over.

LoganK > Lunardi.

It feels good to not have to worry about the bubble with a game left.  It feels almost as good to actually expect to do some damage in the B.E.T..

I think we're in, but I'm still not able to totally relax. We need to atone for last season's terrible effort in the BE tournanent.

Quote from: Marillac on March 05, 2015, 11:04:44 PM

LoganK > Lunardi.

It feels good to not have to worry about the bubble with a game left.  It feels almost as good to actually expect to do some damage in the B.E.T..

I think we're in, but I'm still not able to totally relax. We need to atone for last season's terrible effort in the BE tournanent.

We lost to the eventual big east champ.  It wasn't as terrible as it felt at the time but we definitely didn't step up.

We need at least one win in the BET just to continue feeling really good about ourselves (unless we beat nova at nova then it doesn't matter).  Don't want to go into ncaas on 2 game losing streak.

Re: VCU's lock status.  VCU could lose out and be a lock.  They will be judged off of how they performed at full strength.  Injuries allegedly effect seeding, but not inclusion. They're 11-6 vs the top 100 including top 50 wins over Northern Iowa and Davidson, @Cinci, and neutral over Oregon.  Two not so great losses.  Land mine in the finale against George Mason.  They'll be fine.

From espn bubble watch:
"We've got to admit: We did not see St. John's coming. If you'd told us a month ago that we'd be locking up the Red Storm at any point before Selection Sunday, we would have politely informed you that the Bubble Watch doesn't cover the NIT. From Dec. 31 to Feb. 3, the Red Storm went 3-7, lost to DePaul, Creighton and (pre-collapse) Seton Hall, let a home game against Duke slip through their fingers, and generally looked like the kind of talented but disjointed outfit that costs coaches with just one year left on their contracts -- in this case, Steve Lavin -- their jobs. Since then, the Johnnies are 7-1, including a convincing win at Marquette Wednesday that eliminated any and all bad-loss potential from the regular-season schedule. On Saturday, the Red Storm go to Villanova, where a win would be insane and a loss doesn't matter. They've swept Providence and Xavier, beat Georgetown handily on Feb. 28, and are playing their best basketball at the best possible time. Believe it or not, the Johnnies are a lock."

From espn bubble watch:
"We've got to admit: We did not see St. John's coming. If you'd told us a month ago that we'd be locking up the Red Storm at any point before Selection Sunday, we would have politely informed you that the Bubble Watch doesn't cover the NIT. From Dec. 31 to Feb. 3, the Red Storm went 3-7, lost to DePaul, Creighton and (pre-collapse) Seton Hall, let a home game against Duke slip through their fingers, and generally looked like the kind of talented but disjointed outfit that costs coaches with just one year left on their contracts -- in this case, Steve Lavin -- their jobs. Since then, the Johnnies are 7-1, including a convincing win at Marquette Wednesday that eliminated any and all bad-loss potential from the regular-season schedule. On Saturday, the Red Storm go to Villanova, where a win would be insane and a loss doesn't matter. They've swept Providence and Xavier, beat Georgetown handily on Feb. 28, and are playing their best basketball at the best possible time. Believe it or not, the Johnnies are a lock."

Thanks for sharing that. It's an enjoyable read, especially since most of us thought the season was over after the Creighton loss. Lou once told me that over the course of every season, for the most part, you'll lose some games that you shouldn't, but you'll also win some that didn't deserve to win, because by and large most BE have a lot in common. He was talking about the old BE, but all things considered, the BE is pretty deep this year. There is a lot of parity.